tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post3584562595563396141..comments2009-04-14T09:11:32.394+01:00Comments on The Experiment: Self-Indulgent Bullshit: That’s a bit more like it !Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-12328643108988630572008-08-30T11:27:00.000+01:002008-08-30T11:27:00.000+01:00Hi,To the above post we're not saying that the per...Hi,<BR/><BR/>To the above post we're not saying that the percentage difference is not 5% just that the 20/1 and 5/4 shots are not equal strength in a gambling sense, the percentage difference in a trading sense at lower odds is relevant but Andrew doesn't trade. <BR/><BR/>On Kelly, you might find it of interest as you mentioned losing runs, theres a Wikipedia page on Kelly Theory which explains it better than I could. It should be taken with a pinch of salt, your bank shouldn't really be the most money your prepared to lose, but especially when your betting at varying prices it gives a "theoretically" perfect level of staking,<BR/><BR/>NickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-52428427166297845812008-08-29T13:50:00.000+01:002008-08-29T13:50:00.000+01:00These guy have got it wrong when they say the diff...These guy have got it wrong when they say the difference between 5/4 & evens is 25% that is the difference in returns not the actual percentage chance two different things altogetherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-41697276360864267572008-08-29T13:32:00.000+01:002008-08-29T13:32:00.000+01:00Great blog,very thought provoking!Great blog,very thought provoking!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-17411716998849922362008-08-28T23:49:00.000+01:002008-08-28T23:49:00.000+01:00Guys, Just back from the pub (Thursday night ...Guys,<BR/> Just back from the pub (Thursday night quiz). This all made sense to me when I left ! And who the hell is Kelly !!!<BR/>A.Graeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-63110753054666325272008-08-28T22:45:00.000+01:002008-08-28T22:45:00.000+01:00Hi,I'd sort of agree with markomar, I'd make the e...Hi,<BR/><BR/>I'd sort of agree with markomar, I'd make the edge 25% for the 5/4 shot and 100% for the 20/1 shot or putting it another way for 100 1pt bets you'd get back 25pts for the 5/4 shot and 100pts for the 20 shot (or around those figures), so surely the 20 example is superior. My kelly calculator coughs up a stake of 3.7% for the 5/4 and 4.3% for 20 shot so you'd make even more on it. I suppose you could argue with the staking between the two prices but it wouldn't make much difference.<BR/><BR/> I haven't read the post from Matt but I'd guess he's talking from a perspective of trading, as opposed to backing prices (which seems to often get mixed up on this blog) else if you extend it to it's logical conclusion then the 5% edge is the same to a 1000 shot being 20 (5%+0.01%) - which even you or Graeme will never do! <BR/><BR/>still criticising, Nick ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-28934073864810258022008-08-28T20:02:00.000+01:002008-08-28T20:02:00.000+01:00Having played some more with the Kelly calculator,...Having played some more with the Kelly calculator, it turns out a horse that should be evens has to be priced at 59/40 to be as good an induvidual bet as a 20/1 horse that should be 10/1.<BR/><BR/>So it seems Matt wasn`t really that far off. :)<BR/><BR/>Sry for double posting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6804774922458007587.post-32546041161582856982008-08-28T19:40:00.000+01:002008-08-28T19:40:00.000+01:00I don`t think that strictly speaking a 5/4 horse t...I don`t think that strictly speaking a 5/4 horse that should be evens has the same value as a 20/1 horse that should be 10/1.<BR/><BR/>In the case of the first one his true chances of winning are underestemated by 11% of his true odds.<BR/><BR/>In the case of the second horse his real chances of winning are underestemated to the tune of 50% of the true odds.<BR/><BR/>However the first bet has the advantage in that it is more likely to win so you will be comfortable betting more money on it. <BR/><BR/>Though the second one is stil the better bet of the two according to Kelly. With optimal bets sizes and after commision you can expect an increase in fortune of 0.37% on the first horse and 1.38% on the second.<BR/><BR/>Of course for some bettors it will be much easier to find four 5/4 horses that should be evens than 1 at 20/1 that should be 10/1 so it makes much more sense for them to concentrate on the first approach.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com