The Experiment: Self-Indulgent Bullshit

Out with a whimper!

2009-02-23T11:39:00.001Z

Loss since last update £123.20

It feels a little bit sad that my 12th and final month of The Experiment is going out with a whimper. Being honest, when I started the month, I thought it would have been easy to smash the £7k mark for the year (I was only £78 short ffs!) and at the back of my mind, I maybe had pretensions to get somewhere near £8k if I got off to a good start. I think I’ve been in profit for 2 days this month, so never a chance of achieving anything near the £8k!

Before anyone worries, I haven’t traded one single day in front of the PC this month. Weekends just haven’t allowed it and I’ve traded 48 races this month and about 40 have been on BF Mobile, so it’s not like I’ve spent much time on it.

So, what has gone wrong this month?

Basically, I’ve developed an unwanted knack of not following my own tips from The Form Analyst! As you know, I am TFA but this month, I’ve only traded 2 of my 6 winners. I’ve traded nearly all of the losers though. That sort of thing doesn’t help obviously and even though I’ve had a few £50+ wins, I’ve had a couple of large losses (one £100 loss :( ) and it’s just turned into a nothing month for me.

Obviously, I’m not going to worry too much about this month and I’m not going to let it spoil the enjoyment of what I have achieved on BF this year and the fact I have started a tipping business off the back of this blog. Pretty impressive stuff in my opinion and I’m really looking forward to the next 12 months to see where I go at that game.

I sort of gave up on trading from about August and I turned my attention to trying to be a tipster. Before August, I’d never given anyone a horse-racing tip in my life to be honest. Yeah, I’d analysed races before and followed my own advice but I would have always classed myself as the worst tipster of all time. I remember writing a post on the subject and it was true. Every time I was sure a horse would win, it never did when I told others!

I have now been running the tipping service for 5 months and it has been very tough going. I think one of my problems with tipping is always going to be the fact that my knowledge of horse-racing and my ability to read form is never going to match my ability as a tipster. I used to think that it was achieveable but I know it isn’t now.

To be able to fully implement what I know about horse-racing form, I’d have to be playing this game full-time. At the moment, I spend 2-3 hours in the evening before the day’s racing and then a little bit of time each day when I see the market shaping up. As my results have shown, it isn’t enough to be as successful at this game as I wanted to be.

When I started out, I thought I’d cruise to 240 points profit a year. Anyone playing £100 a point would win £24k no probs and it would be like taking sweeties from a kid. Being honest, I still think I can make 240 points a year from tipping but it just won’t be as easy as I thought it would be.

I think one thing that needs to be pointed out is that my target of 240 points a year is a lot of points! I quote things like this all the time as I have great belief in myself and my ability as this game. To my knowledge, no tipster in the game consistently makes this many points and I can’t imagine too many tipsters with no experience start out trying to make this sort of level of profit in their first year.

One thing that makes me laugh is that I’m always being compared to other tipsters in the game who are clearly very good and are much more experienced than me. It’s very flattering to be mentioned in the same breath as Equine Investments, Tipping Legends, Maths, SLH, Optimum and the like. These services are all well established services with massive client bases. I’m sure a few of these are full-time services and that maybe explains why they can charge such a high subscription cost.

I’ve mentioned this on the forum at the site but I have stopped charging anyone who has come up for renewal. I don’t offer a guarantee of this sort on the site and I don’t feel like I need to as for the prices I charge, I’m hardly raking it in for the time and effort I put in to the service. However, it feels wrong to charge people who come up for renewal that weren’t about when I made most of the profits and therefore, I don’t mind people staying at the site free of charge until I make them a profit. Once that day comes, they can leave with a profit or stay and try to grow that profit.

Overall, a disappointing month thus far but it isn’t over yet. I’m hopeful I can turn it around this week and hopefully post a profit on the month and get through the £7k profit mark but we’ll see what happens.

A bit of luck at last!

2009-02-02T21:41:00.009Z

Profit since last update £513.88

I wouldn’t say I’ve been the luckiest person this year on Betfair and given the way most of the tips ran last month, I’m not sure I’m too lucky at that game either but thankfully, I got a massive dose of luck on Friday past.

I gave out 3 selections on Friday and my first play was to put £30 win on each on BF Mobile to enable me to trade from that opening position. I’d hit 31 straight losers before giving out these tips and obviously, my confidence was pretty low that they would win. The odds of them were 9/2, 6/1 and 16/1.

As you may or may not have heard, there was a problem with Betfair Mobile from mid morning and I was unable to lay off any of the bets. Well, it doesn’t take a genius to realise what happened next…….. I joked about it on the forum before it happened, so I'm sure the guys had a good laugh about it!

My first one won with an SP of 9/2 which netted me £172 profit on my bet on Betfair.

My second one won at 11/2 and I won £214 from my bet on Betfair.

I had backed my 3rd one at 22 on Betfair, so I was getting over £600 profit alone if it had won. As it turned out, it was one of the best backed horses of the day and if I was able to access BF, I would have been able to lay off 10 points lower for a £300 riskfree bet.

As it turned out, it had an SP of 10/1 and although it traded 4 IR, it finished out with the front 3. Overall, a profit of £356 on the day from my 3 bets and it doesn’t come much luckier than that. If given the opportunity to trade pre-race or leave IR lays, I would have maybe taken £10 IR on the first two to win small sums (£50 on each maybe) and on the last one, I wouldn’t have taken any money IR and maybe made a small profit of £10 or so by leaving an IR lay, so a likely profit of £110 has turned into £356!

Clearly, this is about as lucky as you can get. The reason I had been having a good month is simply due to the fact I wasn’t gambling on my selections (I don’t do this where possible as I like to trade them) and I missed the brunt of the losses from 31 straight losers and the day when I’m forced to gamble, I hit 2 winners!

The overall P&L for The Form Analyst shows a loss of 16 points on the month which makes me cringe. I’ve stopped taking renewals from anyone that renews at the moment which seemed the right thing to do. I had a few guys join at the peak of the service and they are now carrying a loss, so it makes sense to let these guys stay around until they get into profit and then they can decide to walk away or join the roller coaster again!

Here’s an update of the rollercoaster (I mean the P&L graph!) :

I said this on the last post but it hasn’t really been a bad month for the tips although it appears that way! It was a bad month in terms of winners but when you look at the way the horses ran, it was anything but a poor month. I only had 5 winners but 20 placed horses finished 2nd or 3rd. At the odds I play at, you are nearly as likely to pick a winner as a placed horse in a lot of the races, so to only have 5 winners whilst hitting 20 placed horses takes some doing!

I obviously track my results closely and I shared this table with the guys at the site.

Without trying to put too much of a spin on things, 45% of the selections got placed and considering the average odds were 10/1, you can see why I’ve had a very good month myself trading my horses pre-race and in-running. Backing horses at big prices that run well and trade low IR is basically my ‘edge’ and the edge was still there this month. What wasn’t there was a bit of luck. In my last post, I rattled off a list of big priced horses that got placed and I won’t repeat it again.

In my opinion, the worst case for the P&L last month was the actual result of -16. If someone could promise me that 45% of my selections would place every month where they have an average SP of 10/1, I’d take that every time. If I repeated that every month, I reckon I’d make 30+ points a month easily which would be amazing.

The eagle eye-eyed amongst you will be asking why I didn’t make a profit by backing each-way. Firstly, I don’t suggest each-way bets on all of my selections and for example, I gave 1 point win on a 22/1 that finished 2nd, so if I’d backed a point each-way, I’d have reduced that loss somewhat on the month. Secondly, I always treat the win and place part of each bet as separate bets and I won’t tip each-way unless I think the horse is value to get placed. Again, this is maybe not the norm but it’s what I believe. Hence, a 22/1 chance to win may not be value to place if it isn’t very consistent. Therefore, I gave out the 22/1 at win only and kicked myself when it was 2nd!

I’ve spoken about this a great deal with the subscribers at my site but one of my greatest strengths at this tipping game is identifying my best bets. I know it sounds a bit silly as it seems commonsense but in my case, it makes a huge difference. For example, here’s my P&L graph if you had only followed my stronger bets throughout the course of the service.

The first observation that is underlying this graph and isn’t clearly visible unless you think about it is that I make a loss on my 1 point bets over the 4 months. There are a few reasons for this in my opinion. The obvious reason is the fact my average odds on these bets are much higher, so you would expect a greater variance in the P&L of these bets. More importantly, they are my weaker bets as I said. Hence, if I find a horse I think is overpriced but may not run to form or is inconsistent, I tend to only suggest a point win or 0.5EW.

Clearly, this is a great strength to have as it means you can effectively increase your stakes on these better bets and be confident that it will increase your profits. At the moment, I use a 1-3 point staking plan which works OK but clearly, making a 30 point loss on weaker bets and 80 points profit on stronger bets isn’t ideal.

Two ways around it are to reduce my number of weak bets (not keen on this at the moment due to my relative inexperience at this tipping game) or to increase my stakes on the stronger bets.

I’ve already discussed this with the guys but from March time (or whenever the flat starts), I will be using more of a 1-5 point staking plan. I was meant to be using that from the beginning of the service but I’ve only given out one 3 point win bet in 4 months, so unless I’m waiting for Shergar to run, I’m not going to be giving out 4 and 5 point bets in the near future with my current plan.

I guess the issue with changing staking plan is you are in danger of increasing the risk as I can’t do much damage to the 45 point profit I’ve made so far with a 1-3 point plan but if I give out a couple of 4 or 5 point bets that lose, my historical profit quickly vanishes!

I guess the key is the graph above and the fact I do have a great strength of recognising my better bets, so I need to maximise it much more than I currently do. Hence, I shouldn’t worry too much about losing a lot of points as it doesn’t happen with my stronger bets but we’ll see what happens in March.

A few people have dropped me emails or comments on here (not published them all) about trying to learn to trade like me or at least learn how to read form like I do. I don’t want to turn this into a sales pitch but I’m always willing to help anyone out who wants to learn. However, I do spend a lot of time with the guys on the forum at the site discussing races and my trading strategy and my methods on Betfair.

If anyone does want to learn and isn’t too interested in the tips themselves, then drop me a note and we can maybe arrange access to the site for a fee. Anyone who joins the site gets access to every email I’ve written over the past 4 months and downloading these would be a great start for anyone wanting to learn about reading form. In addition, there are over 3,000 posts in the forum and over 1,100 of these are by me and a great many are about my methods and strategy on Betfair, so in my opinion, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to join for a month to get a flavour of what I do!

Another nightmare!

2009-01-28T14:48:00.000Z

Profit since last update £533.89

One of the most interesting things for me this year has been the debate about trading v gambling. I’ve discussed it before many times and there are various posts about it on the blog at different times.

To reiterate what I’ve said previously, in my opinion, everyone needs to find a style of gambling that suits their risk aversion. I’m very risk averse and I don’t like losing, so I tend to leave IR lays on 90% of my bets to ensure I make a profit or at the very least, get my stake back. I know not everyone is like me though and lots of punters would see this as money lost when a horse wins the race after they have laid part of their profit off.

Another interesting topic is the win only v each-way betting methods. As I’ve said before, I only really bet win only apart from odd occasions when I feel the each-way part of the bet gives me great value. For example, if I happen to fancy a 5/1 in an 8 runner race, I will bet each-way since I think Evs is a decent price for the horse to be placed in most cases. I will still lay off low IR on the win part of the bet as I see a place bet and win bet as two separate bets.

One topic I’ve only covered a little this year is staking. I have never bet to a staking plan in my punting life and I never will do. A lot of my staking is around how I perceive value and it’s a very subjective approach from me. I could bet on two 16/1 chances and yet, I’d be happy to gamble 10 times more IR on one than the other one. It’s the way I play and it’s something I don’t intend to change.

Lastly, as you all know, I add a different dimension to my punting by using Betfair to trade pre-race and IR. If possible, I will bet more on a horse than I want to take IR with the sole intention of laying off pre-race to get a riskfree bet or take a small sum in running if I think I’ll be able to make money IR or I may leave it as a simple bet. Again, this is all very subjective and varies according to each individual horse or race.

Why does any of the above matter?

This month, I’ve had an absolute nightmare with the tips. I can’t get across how bad the month has been and it has been a shocker. Obviously, I tend to go on losing runs now and again and I bounce back and no doubt, I’ll bounce back from this run but it has been a poor month for me and all the subscribers.

When I tell you that I’ve only had 3 winners and 18 placed horses this month, it’s easy to see how thin a line there is between success and failure!

For example, 11/1,10/1,11/1,25/1,14/1,14/1,14/1,16/1 and 10/1 selections have been placed. Obviously, I don’t back each-way for all my selections and even backing each-way, it still looks like a horrendously bad month for the tips with only 3 winners.

One reason for not posting up an update on the month has been the fact that I was waiting on it turning around and it hasn’t turned around! I know people like to read how I’m doing and I still put a lot of example analyses on the site for people to browse if they want to learn anything. The main reason for not posting though is that it feels unfair to be posting a profit when subscribers are suffering a loss and a healthy loss at that.

I’ll post up my BF P&L at the month end but since the last post, I’ve made just over £530 profit on Betfair. I’ve only really traded a couple of Saturdays on my own selections and backed a few on Betfair Mobile whilst being at work but it’s been a good run for me.

The point of my introduction is that there are a lot of different ways to skin a cat on Betfair. I’ve discussed it at length in the past and it is true. I’ll talk through an example of how a few people played a horse I tipped on Saturday. The horse was Too Forward.

To my knowledge, 4 people played this horse 4 different ways. I’m sure a few did something a bit different but I know 4 ways people played it.

I gave out the selection in the forum on the Friday night as I let everyone know how keen on it but not everyone uses the forum, so it effectively became an official selection on Saturday morning.

I suggested 1.5 points each-way at 16/1. It was available at 17.5 and 17 on Betfair on Friday night for just under £1,000 in liquidity. In the morning, it was 16.5 and you could have got around £2,000 on it if you were patient, so there were no liquidity issues even for big players.

Here’s 4 different ways people played it including myself:

Example 1 – My method (trade and aim for a risk free bet)

As you know, I like to back a horse like this with a larger stake and then look to lay off pre-race for a riskfree bet and then make some money IR.

My first bet was £50 at 17.5 on Friday night. I then topped up to have £200 at 17.5 when I went to my bed. In the morning, I had another £200 on it at 17 and I effectively had £400 win at 17.25.

Clearly, I don’t use any staking plan and considering how sweet I was on this, I was happy to risk £50 IR on it which is about my maximum bet.

Throughout the day, the horse shortened and it’s SP was 10/1 at the off. I laid off my £400 at 13.5 on average and I had £1,500 riskfree on the horse to win.

I decided I’d take £100 out at 4, £400 out at 1.9, £200 out at 1.1 and let the rest run.

Roughly, I got £100 return guaranteed if it hit 4, £500 return if it hit 1.9, £700 return if it hit 1.1 and £820 if the horse had won the race.

As it turned out, the horse hit 2.1 IR and finished 3rd. I won £100 but was very close to winning £500!

So, I won £100 for zero risk.

Example 2 – Following my Staking Plan (Bet 1.5 points each-way)

If we assume £50 a point, then someone had £75 EW at 16/1 which was a total stake of £150.

If the horse got placed, they made a profit of £225. If the horse won, they make £1,500 profit.

Hence, for a risk of £150, they won £225.

Example 3 – Win Only (Bet on it to win according to a predetermined staking plan)

One of the subscribers uses a win only staking plan according to the odds of the selections. Hence, they had £40 win at 16/1.

If the horse had won, they’d make a profit of £640.

Hence, they lost £40.

Example 4 – Follow my Staking Plan and lay off low to recoup stake

Someone had £75 EW at 16/1 and left a lay at 3 IR to recoup £150 if it hit 3.

If the horse run well and traded at 3, they would break even. If the horse won, they’d win £1,200.

Hence, they broke even for a risk of £150.

I think the above show that there are many different ways to win and lose money at this game.

I won £100 for zero risk at the off.
Someone won £225 for £150 risk at the off.
Someone lost £40 after risking £40 at the off.
Someone broke even after risking £150 at the off.

From what I can make out, the only difference between my method of gambling and other methods is that I effectively bet on two different things.

Firstly, I bet a lot on my belief that the horse is the wrong price. If we assume I use £10 a point, I was willing to bet 40 points on the fact that 16/1 was the wrong price of the horse. However, I bet zero on the fact the horse would win the race. If I wanted to, I could have took some money IR but at 10/1 at the off, I thought the horse was rightly priced. The value was nearly gone.

However, unlike most traders, I didn’t green up as I thought that IR, the horse would trade lower than 10/1. Clearly, you can’t risk 40 points IR and in this case, I didn’t risk anything. In many races though, I do risk a little IR to make additional profit if it runs well but I’ll lose if it runs poorly.

So, the second part of my bet is whether I think it will run well and trade lower. In most races, I’ll take a point or two IR but if I have a decent riskfree bet, I won’t take any money IR and will happily settle for my riskfree bet.

OK, here’s the crux of the matter………

In the long-run (and I mean long-run!), examples 2,3 and 4 will show nearly identical profits in my opinion. Whether you bet win only, follow a staking plan or follow a staking plan and lay low, it makes no difference. All you are doing is smoothing your P&L or creating extra variance in it by backing win only.

My method will show a higher profit (in proportional terms) though due to one reason. I am gambling twice! I effectively bet on the horse shortening in odds and then on the horse running well.

The above is a great example of when it goes right for me. However, people need to realise that it doesn’t always go to plan and sometimes, I’m forced to take money IR on a horse when it has drifted. Hence, I may have £20 win on a horse trading at 25 and the odds I have got are only 5/1! Hence, unless my horse runs really well or wins, I’m not going to avoid a loss but that happens now and again (not often this month but frequently in the past!).

The whole tipping service is built on my belief that I can find horses over-priced that will run better than the market odds suggest. As I’ve stated a million times, I don’t go looking for winners as backing lots of winners doesn’t mean you’ll make a profit. It only means it will take you longer to lose but ultimately, you will lose if you don’t back horses that represent value.

As I said in the intro, people need to find a style of gambling that suits their risk aversion and ultimately, their skill. My skill is identifying horses overpriced that run well. That’s why I make money at the game I play. It’s also why I’ll bounce back from this current run with the tips and make the guys money across at the site!

Annual Review of The Form Analyst (1st Oct-08 to 11th Jan-09)

2009-01-12T13:51:00.011Z

This is a review I shared with the subscribers of The Form Analyst yesterday and I thought a few blog readers might enjoy the read. I've also updated my P&L for Jan-09 but it hasn't been the best of starts for me this year!

Annual Review of The Form Analyst (1st Oct-08 to 11th Jan-09)

I felt it only right to make this review run right up to the 11th of January simply due to the fact that we haven’t had the best of starts to this year and it’s important that I try to show the true picture of how the service has performed thus far.

All of my figures below are as accurate as they can be although there will always be small discrepancies between my results and anyone proofing my results. However, all of my results are proofed across at racingproofing.com and my results are in line with the results there. All of my selections and finishing positions are also kept on the site and are easily verified by looking at Racing Index.com or Racing Proofing.com.

Around half of my current subscribers have been here since day one of the service and I’ve picked up new subscribers along the way. I’ve also lost subscribers along the way but to my knowledge, no one has left the service after losing money following my selections. If anyone does get to this position at renewal, (a few of you are sitting with a small loss at the moment), I’m happy to discuss a way around this to ensure that people stay with the service whilst getting the opportunity to win back their previous losses. This assumes people have followed all of my selections and staking advice.

The starting point for the review should probably be our P&L graph since inception:

Everyone can see it hasn’t exactly been a smooth P&L curve and depending on when you joined, you could be anything from -12 to +72 at the moment. The majority of subscribers are in profit but I have had a couple of people join at the end of last year and these people are sitting with a small loss at the moment.

I have split the graph into 12 constituent parts and these are described along the bottom of the graph.

The highlight for us would be the 80 points profit we made in at the start of November and that was easily the best time for the service. We have had two very poor runs where we have lost 45 Pts and 29 Pts respectively. I said at the start that everyone should hold at least a 60 point betting bank and for safety, you ideally want to be playing with a 100 point betting bank. Thankfully, no one has lost their full bank if they followed this advice although they may have lost 75% of their bank at one stage which wasn’t ideal.

Apart from these highlights, our profit has been very up and down. My winners and losers tend to come in batches which isn’t ideal as people lose confidence during the poor runs and then go overboard during the good runs. I have continually tweaked my staking as we have moved through the service and by using each-way betting, we have managed to reduce the variance in our P&L I think.

A summary of my results by month is:

Strike rate throughout this report is defined as any bet where we have made a profit. Hence, it is winning bets and not winning selections.

This summary mirrors the graph somewhat but it also disguises the fact that we haven’t been having the best of times during the past 4 weeks. Over this period, we are making a loss but it is hidden by the fact that we had a great start to December. Overall, you can see that we have a strike rate of 24% and a ROI (Yield) of 20.9%.

Interestingly, we have actually had a decent strike rate in January but it is from each-way bets producing small profits which isn’t ideal. A ROI of 20.9% is highly respectable and isn’t far off the best tipsters in the business. In time, I hope to increase this a little though.

One of the things I think is very interesting is my ability to be able to recognise my better bets from my weaker bets. I use a staking plan of 1-5 although we have never had a 4/5 point bet and we have only had ten 3 PT bets thus far, so my staking tends to be very prudent.

Here is the breakdown of our P&L according to the staking plan:

One of the criticisms I have had during my time tipping is that I’m maybe not selective enough when it comes to selections. I have always said that if people don’t want to follow all my selections, then I would suggest they only follow my stronger bets since these are the ones which I obviously think will run better. Anyone who has only followed my stronger bets would be 76.9 Pts in profit and they would have a far smoother P&L than anyone following all the bets.

It may sound easy for people to think that I should stop giving any of my weaker bets and one day, this may well be the aim for this service. However, considering I have only been tipping for just over 4 months if you include my free trial month, I feel like I need the weaker bets to be able to identify the stronger bets. If I only looked for stronger bets, I would struggle to decide how strong a bet it may be and it would reduce my confidence in the stronger bets.

One of the things I can probably do when we get to March is start using my 1-5 Pt staking plan. If I continue to give out 1Pt bets, I should increase my 2 and 3 point bets by 1 point to increase our profits as we clearly have a decent ‘edge’ on these bets.

I have only given out ten 3Pt bets and 50% of these have won or been placed. Clearly, this is very good and shows that I do recognise real value when I see it. Hence, if someone wants to only bet a few times a month with higher stakes, this is definitely the horses to do it on. I have only given out one 3Pt win bet and it won after being heavily backed, so most of the better bets are each-way bets and tend to be in smallish fields.

Field size is something that seems to affect my performance. This isn’t surprising as in smaller fields, there are fewer horses to analyse for me and I can read the way the race will be run much better. Here’s the performance by field size:

This maybe isn’t surprising given the way I analyse races but when you consider our best winner was a 22/1 in a 32 runner field, I really do seem to struggle in larger fields. Before we think we are onto something special, we need to bear in the mind that at the end of the last flat season, we had large fields and some very inconsistent results on bad ground. Hence, this skews the results slightly but it is something to analyse in the future again and react to if necessary.

Another thing you should always pay attention to is your P&L backing horses at certain prices. Here are the results by odds of each selection:

This is another slightly surprising statistic and doesn’t exactly make total sense. I was conscious of the fact that I don’t pick many winners around the 9/1 mark as I know this is about my average price of the selections. I do seem to do better at shorter priced selections and longer priced selections but again, it is something to monitor and react to if it continues. It’s far too early to stop giving out selections at any particular odds!

One of the most talked about statistics by me and others has been my record on the AW flat. I openly admit I don’t think the form is reliable and for someone like me, it isn’t suited to my methods. However, during the winter, I have continued to give out selections and tried my best to persevere with it. Here is the breakdown we were all waiting for:

At first glance, it isn’t as bad as many of you thought and being honest, it isn’t as bad as I thought. Clearly, making a loss on any type of racing means you don’t have an ‘edge’ which is disappointing and therefore, it ultimately means you won’t make money. Even by breaking even, all you are doing is reducing your ROI which is an important measure.

The flat results above look very poor also but I would put that down to the fact it was the end of the flat season in October when I started and the results were almost as bad as the AW! I had a 22/1 winner and still only made 14.5Pts profit in total, so it wasn’t the best of times for us.

In my opinion, the true worth of this service will be from March-August and in this 6 month spell, I would hope to really push on and make better profits. Everyone knows my confidence when it comes to turf flat racing and in the summer when the form is holding up well, I will look to exploit that to the max. My methods work best when the form is reliable and I’ve said since day one that I would make far better returns in the summer than I would in the winter.

As everyone knows, I set myself a target at the start of the service and that was to achieve 240 points profit in a year. I said at the time that most of this would be achieved during the turf flat season and I stand by this comment. I hate the AW and I’ve never been very good at the NH game, so anything I’ve did this winter is a bonus. The fact I can make 50 points when I’m not in my comfort zone is only an indication of what I hope I can do when I get an opportunity on the turf flat.

This winter, I’ve managed to achieve these results by a lot of hard work and so far, it has paid off. When we get to March, my expertise on the flat should come to fruition and combined with the work ethic I’ve developed during this service, I think I’ll do something special at this game. Time will tell…..

Lastly, I know a few of you were keen to see my results by course. I don’t think it shows anything too much apart from the fact I can’t wait for the Cheltenham Festival in March!

Overall, it’s been a roller-coaster 3 months for anyone that has been here from the beginning. Anyone who has joined along the way is probably a little bemused by it all as I’ve hardly set the world alight this winter but I’m hopeful people have been given a taster of what I can do and as long as they remain patient, the profits will flow.

If I was asked to give myself a mark out of 10, I would say I’m probably at a 6 after the first 3 months. Pass marks but only just. I still feel like I haven’t shown everyone what I can do and I’m sure everyone is looking forward to Cheltenham in March and beyond.

Thanks for your continued support and I look forward to a prosperous year for us.

Graeme

Much more like it!

2009-01-02T21:02:00.002Z

Profit since last update £498.56

Not really sure where to start to be honest. I’m not going to do a yearly update as I’ll save the conclusion of this trading/gambling/tipping blog until the end of February 2009 as that will be the 12 month Experiment finished. I’d obviously like to wish any readers a Happy New Year and I hope 2009 brings you success in whatever you do.

OK, onto the fact I’m posting a profit and not just a small profit at that. I had a nightmare with the tipping and the trading over the Festive period and it was actually my worst ever day on Betfair the day after Boxing Day. One of the problems with my trading strategy is that when it goes tits up, it can really cost you a fair few quid. I had a good number of horses that day that didn’t shorten pre-race and then ran very poorly, resulting in me not getting any IR lays matched and basically losing a few quid.

As I said at the time, I was very annoyed with myself for the trading and also for the fact I’d tipped so many losers in such a short space of time. I said at the end of my last post though I wasn’t too worried as I’d get it back in the future. Thankfully, I didn’t have to wait too long!

I haven’t quite recouped all the losses for the poor tipping over the Festive period for the subscribers across at the site but I’ve got over half of it back I think, so I’m slowly getting there. I’m slowly getting my confidence back and as someone in the forum said, “my lack of confidence at times makes Sam Thomas look like the Rock of Gibraltar” which is a great quote and for those of you who don’t follow horse-racing, don’t worry about it!

The turning point for me was on Sunday when I tipped Exotic Dancer. I had a nice bet on it and laid off IR fairly early as it was travelling very well about 3 fences from home and closing on the favourite when my lay got matched. Obviously, as luck would have it, the favourite crashed out at the next fence and I was left with £98 on Exotic and £70 on the field! Shame when that happens but I didn’t complain too much as Exotic hosed up and it was a winning tip which was badly needed.

On Monday night, I spotted a horse in a race that had multiple form lines and was a very likely winner in my opinion. I decided it would be my first ever 3 point win bet on the tipping service. It was best priced 9/4 in the morning when I issued the note and my first bet was £400 on at 3.5 on Betfair as I was sure it would shorten. I then laid off at about 3 and then did about 7 other backs and lays as it shortened all day and at the off, I had £509 riskfree on the selection. It was about 2.3 at the off.

It got off to a dodgy start in the race and was available at 3.5 or above for the first mile of the race and I was cursing myself for not greening up at the off. My only lay was £100 at 1.5 and I wasn’t sure it was going to win with a few hurdles left. However, it then made up ground very easily and I had the option to cancel my lay if I wanted as large sums appeared to lay it at about 1.8 but I left my lay in case it fell at the last!

Thankfully, it pinged the last and it was a £450 win for me. I’ve waited a long time to have a trade like this on Betfair this year and it’s nice when it works so well. Obviously, the fact I put it up as 3 points win was a great relief as I was getting quite desperate for a decent winner to help me recoup some losses back from the Festive period.

Yesterday, I was very keen on a horse called Mr Willis and I put it up for 2 points win as a tip. My first bet was £200 at 3.1 and I didn’t lay off until 2.3 and I was pleased when it hosed up as I was so confident, I didn’t even leave an IR lay! Another great profit for me and another winning tip. Easy game this!

I also had a few losing trades on other selections but thankfully, all of these shortened pre-race after my initial bet and I only risked a few quid on each race.

So, all in all, I’ve won just less than £500 in 4 days and it’s a great end to the year and a great end to a very turbulent month for me with the trading!

One of the things I’ve been doing is spending a bit of time analysing my results for the tipping business since the inception. One of the things I’ve talked on here before is the fact I don’t make a profit to level stakes but to my suggested stakes, I make a nice profit.

Obviously, the reason for this is the fact I give out different strength of tips. When I gamble 2 points or more on a selection, I’d class this as a strong selection and when I gamble less than 2 points, I’d class this as a weak selection. Here’s the profit and loss to each type of bet:

Strong selections = 82 points profit
Weak Selection = 26 point loss

I was astonished by this to be honest and it does raise the question of why I’d bother giving out 1 point selections to subscribers. However, in my opinion, the only reason I’ve done so well is because the 1 point bets I give out very frequently allow me to gauge the strength of my better bets and it works very well in my opinion. If I stopped giving 1 point bets, I wouldn’t know the best bets to give out as tips then and I’d be lost I think.

I have started putting some thoughts into ways to expand the service and I’m looking at things like starting a laying service and maybe a strong bets service going by the results above but I won’t be rushing into anything new without discussing it with my current subscribers.

Painful....

2008-12-27T20:44:00.001Z

Loss since last update £349.65

One of the reasons I’m keeping this blog going is simply due to the fact it has helped me so much this year with keeping my discipline. When I’ve been through some bad times punting this year, the blog has helped a great deal and after the last two days, I’m hoping to use this to let off some steam tonight as I’m fuming with myself.

As I’d said on the last blog post, my own trading hadn’t been going that well recently and being honest, I hadn’t really been on fire with the tips. I seem to go through good spells and bad spells with the tips and you could easily see that by looking at the graph of my P&L.

I was looking forward to Boxing Day as there is a feast of racing and with me being off work, I knew I’d get some quality time to spend on my analysis and I was hoping for a very good day. I also knew today would be a busy day for me also, so I was looking forward to getting some trading time and picking some winners.

26 trading races later and 17 tips later, not a single winner to show for it and as you can see above, a hefty loss to go with it. A £350 trading loss to go with a 16 point loss to suggested stakes with the tips and it’s pretty much a disaster for me and The Form Analyst.

This is painful to look at but here’s the P&L graph after the last 2 days:

So, where do I start? I’m not posting my BF P&L for today as it shows nothing apart from small losses in most races and a couple of hefty losses. I’ve tried my best to not show shitty P&L shots on here as it does nothing for my confidence and I’m not about to start now.

My worst result of the last 2 days was Twist Magic. On the form book, this was about the greatest certainty that you can get in racing in my opinion as it was 2/1 against horses rated far inferior to it and all it had to do was run to the form it has shown many times on good ground and was in the process of showing last time until it fell in the Master Minded race.

Today, I was using £100 trading stakes on it to back and lay and at the off, I had about £180 riskfree on it to win as it was heavily punted pre-race and it was the easiest horse to trade this year! Just before the off, it started to play up at the start and people started laying it. I then got involved again with a few to take some money in running but I ended up taking £100 IR on it and the horse just never travelled. I knew my fate very early on and it was basically a £100 punt that went wrong and the layers were right to lay it at the start when it played up.

This is the sort of result that has me tearing my hair out in racing. All Twist Magic had to do was run to some sort of form to win the race as the eventual winner and runner-up ran to their best form which was about 20lbs worse than Twist’s form from last time. It really is hard to figure out and I’m left with a sizable bet on a horse that ran poorly. I also gave that out as a confident tip today, so that didn’t do the subscribers much good.

The same comment applies to a horse called Pop at Wetherby which gave a horse an
easy lead and the money I took IR was pretty much lost very early on in the race.
My other bad race today was Newmill in the Irish Chase and I again took some money IR to get out as it usually front runs and travels well. The writing was on the wall very early with this one and another hefty loss here after getting caught out by a drift.

My best bet of the day was Harry Tricker in the last race at Kempton today and it was one of the best backed horses of the day. It was going in a 15 horse race and the horse needed a decent pace. I was throwing things at my TV as they went a crawl and was shouting at the jockey to let it go on and take the lead as it was pulling for its head the whole way at the back and had no chance. It was a never nearer 6th I think at the end but it had no chance as it effectively turned into a 5f sprint which is not what it wanted.

Yesterday, I wanted to be against Kauto Star and as the money came, the more I laid and I was happy to gamble a little IR. Obviously, this wasn’t the best decision I’d made and this went belly up. To make matter worse, I had £600 riskfree return on Alberta’s Run which finished 2nd in the race and I didn’t make a penny from this IR at all.

I could go on and discuss another 20 races where I’ve had small losses or small wins but the wins were few and far between and I struggled all day with horses running poorly. I can barely recall a day where I read so many races badly and this will be on my mind for a while yet.

One of the things that I don’t understand about the last 2 days is that I’ve put more work into my analysis and set aside some decent time to enable me to trade properly. I expected to win a fair amount trading and at the least, expected to have a few winnings tips to enable us to finish off the month very well. No idea what happened today and looking at the results tonight, I’m scratching my head a little as I was nowhere near to finding some of the winners today and it worries me a bit.

So much of this game is about confidence and until today, I’d been very confident that things were going well and I was riding the crest of a wave this month with winning tips. Tonight, I feel down and I can’t believe I’m only around 10 points in profit this month. I was looking at a 30 point profit at one stage and that has evaporated very quickly under my nose and I couldn’t do anything to stop it.

There have been various times when I’ve felt under pressure with the tips and obviously, when I had a new subscriber who had 34 losing tips at the start, I felt a huge strain then but I’m probably feeling a bit worse now. I’ve had a few new subscribers recently who joined on the back of decent results and they must be asking themselves why the hell they have bothered no doubt. One guy is about 18 points down after a week and I can’t imagine he’ll be too chuffed with his investment.

I’m so desperate to separate myself from other tipsters out there and I feel like I’ve taken a massive step backwards over the last few days. I’m shell shocked with what has happened and reading JP’s blog tonight makes me cringe when I see all the tips and no winners. Knowing people are losing small fortunes on my poor advice is hard to take and I’m gutted about the last two days.

I’ll no doubt ease back on the tips a little and try to claw my way back into the game but I’m now on a losing run of 19 tips which is another horrendous run. I think it’s one winning tip in about 33 or something and that’s a near disaster for a tipster. Thankfully, I’ve been playing each-way a little and have had a few placed, so it hasn’t been as bad as it sounds but not far off it.

The only thing that keeps me going is I know deep down I’m much better than I’ve shown everyone in the last couple of days. I think I’m much, much better but I now have a lot to prove again. I’ve been here before and I’ll be here again in the future no doubt, so it’s time to stand up and be counted again. Let’s hope I can rise to the challenge.

With regards to my trading, I know I messed up a bit today but I’m not going to be too hard on myself. I’ve done well this year and after last month, I can’t moan too much about a bad month. I’ll get it back next month……………

A Disappointing Post!

2008-12-22T15:53:00.004Z

Loss since last update £34.77 & Subs worth £130 = £95.23 Profit to P&L

This is a bit of a disappointing blog post to be honest and I’m having to include a few recent subscriptions to even post a profit to the P&L on here.

As I hinted at last time, my trading was starting to suffer as a result of the tipping business and my lack of time to concentrate on my trading. I’ve therefore just been trading the races with my own horses and up until recently, this has been a very good income for me. Unfortunately, I’ve had a few selections that have run very poorly after drifting pre-race and I’ve not had the best of times of it. If it wasn’t for Folio winning yesterday, this would have been a 3 figure loss I’m posting and I’d have been really annoyed with myself.

As it turns out, it’s hardly a disaster considering I’ve been on a poor run with the tips. I hit 12 straight losers again which is the 3rd time this has happened since the inception of the tipping service. Apart from the fact I tend to play at bigger odds than most tipsters, it’s difficult to put my finger on why losing runs happen to me. I guess it’s partly because I’m quite cocky considering how good I’m going to do at this game, so instead of looking for a short priced selection when I’m on a poor run, I just continue on with my big priced selections and I end up putting myself under a lot of pressure to finally pick a winner and end the losing run!

One thing I have been doing recently is looking for more shorter priced selections that I feel may represent value. By shorter priced, I’m meaning more single figure odds and less double figure odds! So far, it’s been going OK although I do think it is much more difficult to make consistent profits long-term from backing shorter priced selections and it’s not something I’m going to do everyday. So far, I’ve been very selective with my shorter priced selections and a few have won this month which keeps the P&L ticking over.

Here’s the latest P&L for The Form Analyst:

As you may have noticed at the side of the blog, I’m now appearing on the proofing tables across at http://www.racingproofing.com. I’m still being proofed on racing index but it isn’t a fair reflection on how well I’m doing as I’ve said before since so many of my winners are punted on course.

At the moment, I’m up 61 points to odds available in the morning. I’m 35 points up to Betfair SP and 25 points up to Starting Price. Whatever way you look at it, it’s a pretty decent profit and considering I’ve only been at this tipping game for a few months, the potential is there for me to do something decent at this game.

One of the things that makes me laugh is when you look at my results to level stakes, I’m basically breaking even to BF SP and SP and I’m up about 20 points to early morning prices. This may raise a few eye-brows and people may say I’m using a staking plan to boost my profits but that’s part of the game I play. Because I give so many big priced selections, I need a staking plan to take into account that not every one of my tips is the same quality. When I have 0.5 Pts on some donkey and 3 points win on a strong selection, it isn’t fair to judge both of these to 1 point win. One of them is 6 times a stronger bet than the other one, so it makes no sense to look at the profit to level stakes.

I’ve lost a couple of subscribers this month but they have been replaced by new subscribers and I’m guessing that’s part and parcel of the game. I now have more subscribers than I’ve ever had and that’s a nice feeling. Obviously, the service is still very small and going by the fact the fees aren’t that large, I’m not exactly set up for life but it’s a promising start. I always knew the first 3 months were going to be the most difficult and now that I’m approaching the end of that with a decent profit in the bank and more subscribers than I’ve ever had, it’s looking promising for the future.

I would like to congratulate Alistair across at http://betyourlife.blogspot.com/ regarding the fact that he has made it past the £3k profit mark on Betfair this year. Ali’s blog is a great inspiration to any would-be trader and now that I’m not updating my blog daily, I’d suggest if people want a daily read they give Ali’s blog a try.

I’d also like to congratulate Leon on his blog and the fact he’s past the £10k profit mark on Betfair. As I’ve mentioned before, Leon’s blog was a great inspiration to my blog and was the reason I started a blog. I’m glad he revised his decision to stop updating his blog and I’ve been enjoying his little rants on all things Betfair and the like.

I feel like I’m congratulating everyone today but I must mention JP’s blog and his profit this year. JP uses a portfolio of tipsters to try to make money from gambling and The Form Analyst is one of the portfolio at the moment. So far this year, JP has made over £20k profit from his gambling which is an exceptional return. Obviously, he works hard to get all his bets on and obviously pays subscription fees with no guarantee of success, so it’s great to see someone making money at this punting game.

Lastly, as I said at the end of last month, I’m now past the £5k profit for the year on Betfair. I didn’t show my Betfair P&L at the time as I hadn’t past the £5k net deposit mark due to the fact I’ve used my account for a few friends to have losing bets on Betfair! However, even with my recent loss, I’ve managed to make a withdrawal to make me currently £5,060 up this year which is a nice achievement in itself. I’m up about £150 more but it makes little difference to be honest! I’m happy! :)

Sacrificing my Trading..........

2008-12-15T12:13:00.002Z

Profit since last update £145.54

I’m sorry to say this but the profit for the past week looks nothing like the P&L for The Form Analyst. However, unlike other times, my own profit is much lower and I’ve struggled with my trading over the past week and finding enough time for it.

When I started the tipping, it was always the case that it would run alongside my trading/gambling on Betfair and I couldn’t see a reason why they couldn’t work in harmony. The past week though has shown me that I need to choose which means more to me and concentrate on that. At the moment, The Form Analyst means much more than my own trading and therefore, I’m happy to sacrifice making money on Betfair to put my efforts into making money for the subscribers.

I’m sure a few of you will read this and think that’s what I am paid for by the subscribers but as I’ve said since day one, the time and effort I put into The Form Analyst far outweighed my return for the first 3 months but I knew that before I started. Therefore, I worked very, very hard trading my own selections as well as lots of other selections which included night racing when I got in from work where possible.

You can see the results on my November P&L and as I said at the time, I was putting an amazing amount of hours into form study and trading and ultimately, it started to take its toll and I ended up in hospital with a nasty infection. Thankfully, it was nothing too serious and I’m over it now but I’ve no doubt that the strain of The Form Analyst and my own trading had taken its toll on me.

Part of me working so hard to make money myself was because the subscription fees were so low and I wasn’t even getting anywhere near the minimum wage for my time and effort. Obviously, with the results I‘ve had, I’ve started to attract a couple of new subscribers and I took the decision to increase prices for new subscribers on Saturday night.

I’ve spent a long time over the past week or so checking out my competition in the tipping market and looking at prices and the profits that they achieve long-term. The conclusion was that I believed I was underselling the service in quite a big way and this led me to have a rethink of the prices. I didn’t see too many services out there that can compete with my results and I’ve increased prices as a result.

I’ve said this to the subscribers but one of the reasons I’m only offering a maximum of 3 months at a time is because I believe I can keep these results going and I’m not going to try to tie people in to long-term subscriptions off the back of good results. In 3 months time if I’m not doing so good, I’ll look to reduce prices a little and hopefully convince people to stay with me. I like the way this model works and the better I do, the more I can charge although I won’t ever ‘milk’ it the way other services out there do. If I can increase my membership, I’d reduce prices and ultimately, the aim would be to reach a level of membership and close the doors on new subscribers. I’m not even half way there yet!

I was looking at one service out there that charges £2,000 a year and from looking at their results, I struggle to see how they can justify this sort of price. That looks to be a case of someone living off past results and I can’t imagine that too many people fall for that sort of thing.

One thing I quickly realised in this game is that you are only as good as your last few tips. When I was on a losing run a few weeks ago, people were saying that we were in the shit again and yet, we were up over 30 points in 2 months. I know people get frustrated at losing runs as do I but I would never judge anyone in the short-term at this game. I’m a great example of what can happen in the short-term and why it can be misleading. I’ve had two horrendously bad losing runs in the short-term but bounced back each time.

As you can see, it’s a fairly easy decision to spend less time on my own trading/gambling and I’ll put all my efforts into The Form Analyst now. I reckon I may have been spending 120 hours a month on everything and when you consider I work full-time, it’s not too surprising I ended up in hospital.

I’m going to reduce my trading time considerably and I won’t be trading all of my own selections now. Being honest, I was a bit annoyed in the past week as I’ve hit a fair few winners and all of them have shortened a fair bit pre-race and if I was taking the trading seriously, I could have won over £1k but something has to give. I’m sacrificing my trading.

A few of you may be shocked at this considering the strides I’ve made this year on Betfair but the skill I’ve developed will always be with me now. I will continue using Betfair when I’m in the house and have some spare time and I will continue trading some of my own selections but I can’t go flat out like I was doing for 2 months.

Hopefully, with the increase in prices, this will ensure I feel like I’m being paid for my time now and I won’t need to trade like mad to make additional money. One reason for trading my own selections so much was to prove that I can make money at this game. I had to prove it to myself first and foremost and I have done that now. I know I have a strategy that I can use to earn consistent money on Betfair and it’s a great place to be in. I now need to try to conquer the tipping world…………

I’m currently up 60 points since the inception of the service in October. Lots of people mocked me on this blog when I said I would attempt to make 240 points a year from the tipping game. I can understand why to be honest as very few tipsters in this game would aim for that and even if they aimed for it, very few would achieve it or even look like achieving it. I’ve got a long, long way to go before I get anywhere near that target but the great thing about that target is that it is a big target. If I was to end up with 230 points profit in year one, would that be a disaster? Would 220 point be a disaster?

There are some services out there that would consider 60 points a year a great year. If I hadn’t started off so well with this service, maybe I would have saw 60 points a year as a great achievement but not now. I’m bang on target for my 240 point target and that’s the aim. It’s about 1.01 that I don’t make it but I’ll work my ass off to try to make it.

I hope everyone is doing well and I hope you are having a good time on Betfair and the like. Going by my blog hits, I doubt anyone is still reading this but I’ll continue updating it weekly until The Experiment finishes and I’ll pull everything together at the end and calculate how much I’ve made this year and what it has meant to me.

A frustrating day!

2008-12-06T23:59:00.000Z

Profit since last update £129.52

I’m trying my best to find time to update the blog and after the day I’ve had, it felt right to do it tonight!

The profit is from this week as I had a couple of trades on Thursday and Friday but most of it is from today. If I traded today again 100 times, I can guarantee you 100% that the least amount I’d win on the day is the amount I’m posting but sometimes, I have to live with the fact that things don’t go my way when I’m trading.

I gave out 7 tips today, 3 winners at 9/2, 5/2 and 5/1 and 2 placed horses at 22/1 and 10/1. Two of the tips were unplaced.

By following my staking plan, you made around 20 points profit on the day and being honest, if you were playing on Betfair, you could have made more.

Clearly, this looks the sort of day made for me but unfortunately, things didn’t quite go according to plan. I made £100 on the first race and then £30 on the rest of the day although I was trading on my Betfair Mobile for much of the day and as I’ve said before on here, I wouldn’t recommend this to anyone but it suits me when I’m Christmas shopping.

My errors today were much my own making and I seemed to miss the winners and back the losers but thankfully, I made a decent profit on the day and many of the subscribers probably had a very good day today also, so all in all, I’m not going to complain one iota.

I started off with Fabalu in the 11.40 race and it was very weak on Betfair which got me in a spot of bother and I had to take £40 IR on it. I got out a bit of the bet fairly early on and greened up very early also as I wasn’t sure it would stay the trip in that ground and a £100 green win on the race for me. Taking £40 IR on a 6 chance and winning £100 isn’t a bad result but sometimes, I get myself in a muddle on these drifters and I’d have been really annoyed to lose £40 by 11.45am on a Saturday!

It turned out well and got me in the mood for the rest of the day……

I traded a few of my early races in the house and I lost £16 on Lordsbridge and that annoyed me a little. I knew the way it ran and I just should have taken my medicine pre-race as I was struggling to get out but I ended up taking a little more IR than I wanted to gamble and the whole £16 was lost.

I was very sweet on Pause and Clause and backed it to win against the Nicholls hotpot when I should probably have just laid the 1.3 favourite. I couldn’t get anything out IR and it was another £12 loss and I was a bit annoyed at this point. I’d backed Free World to win in between for £10 and this was pipped by Aruldar on the run-in and at this point, I wasn’t too pleased.

I then struggled to get any money on Polar Gunner as it was too strong in the market and I ended up with £3 on it. Obviously, when one of mines is heavily punted and I can’t get a penny on it, it wins. That pissed me off a little more and I agreed to go out at that point to do some Christmas shopping.

Before I left, I backed Wingman to win and left a lay which wasn’t matched and it was another £12 loss when I checked when I got home.

My biggest error was in the 3.35 where I put up L’Aventure each-way and backed it at 23 on Betfair before I left the house. I knew I’d make it to the bookies in town to watch the race and I thought I’d put in a lay on my phone when I got there. Unfortunately, I missed the start of the race, played around getting up Betfair Mobile, couldn’t be bothered putting in a lay as my phone was pissing me about and watched the race. I had £8 on at 23 and it traded at less than 2 I heard and finished 2nd. I was really annoyed then and was fuming with myself.

In the last race, I’d put up Chiles Cross and backed it this morning. Thankfully, it shortened pre-race and gave me £260 riskfree and I left a lay on my phone to make £60 profit and that turned an OK day into a good day for me.

Some people may read this and think it’s not a great return but as I said last week, I live with the fact I don’t make as much as gamblers when the horses win I tip.

I was really chuffed with the tips today and how they ran and I know a few of the guys made a few quid. JP had an exceptional day as you can see on his blog and the run for JP just goes on and on. I know a lot of people are very sceptical about paying for tips and whether you can really make a portfolio of tipsters pay for you in the long-term but I’d direct them to JP’s blog and ask them to have a look at what he does and how he makes it pay.

I was glad to hit a couple of winners for the guys today and I was on a sticky wicket after my recent run, so as usual, I tend to do better with my back against the wall and feeling like I need to find a winner urgently. I just need to find a way to find winners when I’m doing well! :)

Strange end to a great month!

2008-12-02T11:55:00.001Z

Profit since last update £239.77

I wanted to do a post to round off the month of November since it was the best month of The Experiment so far. Being honest, if someone had told me at the start of the year that I could have won this amount from trading/gambling on Betfair in one month, I wouldn’t have believed them.

I’ve came a hell of a long way since the start of March and amazingly, 9 months down the road, I’ve made £5.3k. When I think back to my first 2 months on Betfair when I made pennies trying to scalp the markets, it’s a very long way in a relatively short space of time.

£5k of the profit is from Betfair and a little bit is from subscriptions at the site. Unfortunately, my honesty across there has appeared to annoy a few of my subscribers and when they read this post, I can’t imagine they’ll be happy for me but I’ve been honest since day one on here and at the site and I’m not going to change now.

On Saturday, I put up 4 selections as tips and not surprisingly going by my current run of form, they all lost. However, in two of the races, I backed a couple of others. Due to the fact I knew I was going to post the profit on here when I got around to it, I mentioned it in the daily email on Sunday that I’d cocked up and tipped the wrong horses in two of the races.

I’ve admitted this to Andrew and I’m sure some of the guys who subscribe will read this but I should have really given the other 2 as tips. I went for High Chimes in the Hennessy which was the right decision regardless of where it finished but I should have given Madison Du Berlais as a smaller bet for 1 point win. It was 4th in the race last year and I was going to give Character Building as a point win simply because it was 3rd in the race last year. When that became a non-runner, I made a poor judgement call and dropped the idea of a second selection and it cost the guys a 25/1 winner (was 33/1 in the morning!).

In the other race, Andrew was a massive fan of Helen’s Vision and that was going to be the tip. I then looked at the race, saw the form with Khyber Kim and talked myself into Khyber Kim in a big way. I even backed it to win the Champion Hurdle!

I also made sure I backed Helen’s Vision but didn’t tell the guys to do likewise. Khyber Kim traded at 1.06 but lost it on the run-in to Helen’s Vision and due to the fact I lay off low on all my bets, it won me about £140 but lost the guys 2 points. Obviously, I can’t be held responsible for a horse getting beat at 1.06 I tipped but it didn’t help the guys feel too good to hear that I felt I should have tipped Helen’s Vision.

On the Saturday night, I was looking back at the race to understand why I didn’t back Helen’s Vision and I found out I’d misread the form a little with Khyber Kim. I knew it had a big weight turnaround but it was something like 21lbs for 24 lengths or something and I’d somehow misread this and thought it was 10lbs for 24 lengths or something. I honestly can’t remember but if I had read it the way it actually was, I would have tipped Helen’s Vision as it was 3 times the price of Khyber Kim.

Anyway, it’s water under the bridge now but I held my hands up, said I made a couple of poor errors and cost the guys a 25/1 and 11/1 winner. I expected a bit of stick but I think a few guys mistook my admission of guilt as me gloating I’d backed the two winners and a few words were exchanged in the forum about it.

I maybe got a bit on my high-horse about the fact I’m not really a tipster and I hate to be judged like a tipster and it’s not my fault if my tip loses and my two dangers win. Things have settled down into a reasonable debate now and I’m happy with that.

I’ve said this on here before but it’s vitally important that people separate me from The Form Analyst. TFA is getting judged on how good he is at selecting a horse to win a race and he will be judged on how many points he can win his subscribers.

I’m someone who doesn’t really gamble on the horses but who trades to get a riskfree bet on lots of races (far more than I tip a selection in!) and I make money that way. My P&L won’t match what happens with the tips and when I do well at the tips, I won’t do as well on Betfair and vice-versa.

Earlier this month when I was picking lots of winners, the gamblers were doing great and I wasn’t doing that great from trading my own horses. However, I made it clear on here that I live with the fact my betting strategy will allow me to win consistently small amounts and assuming I don’t mess up the trading part too often, I’ll make money at this game.

I’m sure a few of you must be wondering how the trading is going. Basically, my trading skill has probably plateau’d to a great extent and I’m about as good a trader as I’ll be. However, that still means I’m good enough to get in and out of most markets to enable me to get a riskfree bet on the horse I want. When it doesn’t go to plan, I take a bit of money IR and lay at various odds to get my stake back and then look to eventually make a profit.

Every 30 races or so, I’ll get involved on a huge drifter that I’ve backed and it becomes a case of minimising the damage. It can get a little bit hairy at times but I live with this. It would make a conventional trader pull their hair out if they tried what I do but I live with the fact I’ll lose a decent amount every now and again.

One point to make here is the amounts of money I am discussing. Since I mostly trade horses in double figure prices, I only use stakes of between £10 to £60. Obviously, I’m not looking for 1 tick movements but swing movements. If I can get £10 on a 80 shot and it shortens to 50, I get £300 riskfree on it. Obviously, that’s equivalent to £6 for a conventional trader but I take the £6 free bet.

If I can get that on a front-runner, I’ll leave a lay of £20 at 10 and maybe £30 at 2.1 and if it runs well, I’ll get £20, I’ll get £50 if runs very well but doesn’t win, and £65 if it wins.

That’s an easy example but you get the picture. If it runs crap, I move on to the next race and since it was riskfree, I didn’t lose anything. Conventional traders may say I lost £6 but I’d disagree. The £6 was never mines, so I didn’t lose it. We could argue this point until our hearts are content but as I’ve shown in November, when my horses win, the money soon adds up. Why would you green up at 50 if that’s the wrong price of the horse?

Every 30 races, I may take £50 IR on a donkey I’ve backed but that’s life. As I said, I live with it. Taking money IR on a horse you think will win can work for you as well as against you. Looking back over the year, most of big wins (£100 +) have come from backing drifters and either shortening pre-race to get me out riskfree or getting out IR. All of my biggest losses have come from backing drifters also, but by using smaller stakes, I manage these better nowadays.

Overall then, a great month for me, an OK month for The Form Analyst and an OK month for the subscribers. It should have been better for TFA and the subscribers but I lost a bit of form at the end of the month and I’m not on a poor run again with the tips!

Getting nearer to the Holy Grail?

2008-11-25T14:57:00.004Z

Profit since last update £915.65 plus £40 subs (in addition to £140 subs already banked this month)

These blog updates are becoming less and less regular no matter how hard I try to find time to write them but that’s the way it has become I’m afraid.

I do want to try to get in a routine of writing a weekly blog post with some thoughts but it is very difficult to find the time. If I do find a bit of time at weekends, it’s better spent on doing something at the site, studying some results or doing some form study etc. so the blog has dropped down the pecking order of things to do.

However, as I said on the last post, the blog will not ‘die’ until The Experiment finishes, so those of you that like to read blogs and have enjoyed reading mines should keep stopping by to see if there are any weekly updates.

In the summer of this year, I think blog readers were spoilt for choice as there were a number of daily gambling blogs on the go and mines was just one of these. You also had Leon’s blog, Alistair’s blog and JP’s blog to name but a few. Leon is updating his blog as irregularly as I am, so that’s two of the best blogs gone in my opinion.

I still read JP’s blog and Alistair’s blog regularly though and there are links at the side.

So, what’s been happening with me and the subscribers at The Form Analyst site?

I’m sure lots of you keep tabs on my tipping and I’m sure lots of you want to see me do well. I also know a fair number of you want to see me fall flat on my face which always spurs me on a little during the bad times but it’s all part of being a tipster I’m afraid.

My tipping has been very good and the results speak for themselves. Here’s a graph of my P&L for the Form Analyst which looks like the one at Racing Index apart from this graph is to suggested odds and not Starting Price:

I’m not going to rub anyone’s face in how good I’m doing at the tipping as it’s not going to get me anywhere. Most people knew I had the potential to do something pretty special at the tipping game with my knowledge of horse-racing but I blew my best opportunity during the free trial month.

I’ve decided that I’m going to keep the service going into the New Year and I’m hoping most of my current subscribers will stay with me. I’m looking into other avenues to grow the business but I’m being very careful about where I look for potential subscribers.

I don’t want Joe Punter subscribers who look at my results and think I can make them a million in a year. I had a bad experience with these types during my free trial month and I can do without their subscription fees. I’m being very careful about recruiting new members and I’m not going to discuss it on here even. Let’s just say that I’ve a few things in the pipeline.

One of the reasons I keep a blog is to obviously record my own punting activities and it’s been a strange couple of months.

Since I started giving out analysis, I’ve dabbled between trading and punting. I started off punting and switched to trading after being well down during the month of October and having a poor September but it has worked well. I’ve still been continuing to trade my selections this month and it’s probably cost me a fair few quid but I’ve been doing OK on other races where I haven’t given a selection but fancied a horse to run well, so it’s all looking pretty good at the moment.

This is the best month I’ve had this year trading/punting by far and I’m sure it’s no coincidence that it has happened at a time when I’ve been reading races very well and giving out a lot of winning tips. So much of the tipping and trading game is about confidence and I’ve been flying high on confidence for most of this month, so it has followed that I was going to win a fair few quid from trading my own selections.

I’ve written lots and lots on here about whether my trading strategy works or not and people have their own views on it but being honest, when you’re selecting decent priced horses that trade very low IR, anyone could trade these horses and not lose. I gave up on trying to be a good trader a few months ago and I’ll never be a trader that can make money by trading odds movements on Betfair.

However, I have shown consistently on here that if you trade the right horses, you can’t fail to do well and since I’m picking the right horse to trade for many races this month, I’m doing well. Here’s my P&L for the last 3 months:

I’m only using a bank of a couple of hundred pound still (drawing down every week to help pay the bills at the moment!) and my staking size is around £30-£60 on most races I trade, so the returns are off the planet compared to a scalper but I take more risks than scalpers by letting trades go in play in many races, so it’s a simple risk v return game where my risks have worked very well this month. I’m not stupid enough to believe that these returns are achievable every month but I won’t complain about this month.

One of the criticisms that many people threw at me when I was thinking of starting a tipping service was the famous quote “why don’t you just back your own horses with your own money if you’re any good?” and I’ll repeat what I’ve always said. There are punters out there in a much better place financially to be able to exploit my knowledge better than me and it’s these guys that I wanted with me at the site.

I have a very diverse bunch of guys at the site who are playing with stakes from £4 a point to £50 a point. All of them are well in profit this month and overall and obviously, the ones who play with higher stakes are the guys that can exploit me to the full! My target for the service is to make 20 points a month and I’m doing a little better than that after 2 months.

If I can make 240 points a year, that means that the £50 a point guys make £12k and out of this, I’d only take a return £500 or so across the year. Seems like everyone’s a winner and this was always the plan when I started the site.

Obviously, other tipping sites charge much more than my site but as I’ve promised on here before, I’ll never overcharge for the service. If I don’t get enough subscribers to make it worthwhile, I’ll stop the service as I wouldn’t expect subscribers to pay more no matter how good I do at the tipping.

Overall, it’s been a great month for me and the subscribers and I’m now past the £4.5k mark this year with my trading/punting which is a nice achievement. Obviously, I’m not spending much time on the trading now and I’m sort of happy with my own trading strategy on Betfair and most of my time is going to spent on trying to grow the subscription business.

I feel in a great position now whereby if I do decide to stop the tipping, I know I can make a nice sum from just trading my own selections on Betfair which is basically the Holy Grail for most punters. 2009 could be a big year for The Form Analyst……..

46 points profit in 8 days!

2008-11-09T16:05:00.003Z

Profit since last update £118.76

I’m not sure what happens but every time I write a blog post, it appears I then follow it up with a succession of losers! Thankfully, I stopped the rot yesterday and managed to pull out a 22/1 winner (20/1 SP) which was a nice way to stop a poor run.

One of the most satisfying things that has happened during this tipping spell to me was when I saw that someone had re-subscribed to the site today. Given my current form, this wouldn’t be a surprise that someone had re-subscribed but this person had the worst luck of all time!

Basically, he joined after I had hit 5 winners from my first 11 selections and he probably thought it was the best investment he could have ever made. Unfortunately, his first 34 ‘tips’ lost and he lost 45 points during this run. Before he joined the site, he asked me how many points of a bank would he need and I said 60 points although most people on the site were playing with 100 points in a bank.

Therefore, he had lost 75% of his bank if he was playing with a 60 point bank and I’ve no idea what must have been going through his head. I haven’t heard a peep from the guy to be honest and I’m not sure what I would have said if he had got in touch with me. Anyway, his 1 month subscription was up today and by my reckoning, he must be about 1 point up overall after this month.

Clearly, this isn’t what he hoped for when he joined the site but to be able to get back to level from being 45 points down takes some going and I was pleasantry surprised that he has joined for 2 more months!

The plan has always been for me to have a go at this for 3 months and then see what options are on the table. One thing that is a shame is that I haven’t had a new subscriber apart from the guy above and I’ve now lost a fair few who gave up on me too early, so it’s not like the service is growing at the moment.

One thing I would need to consider in the future would be the potential reward versus the time, effort and mental strain that comes with providing the service. One thing that I decided a while ago was that I would never charge a high price for the service no matter how good the service was. I like the idea that normal people playing small stakes can use the service and this is vitally important to me. I’m in the same sort of boat and therefore, I would never consider pricing the service outwith their price range.

Obviously, this does raise lots of questions about you can run a successful service and charge a low price when you don’t have many subscribers! If I decide I would like to carry on with this, I’d really need to look into growing the subscription list. However, I could somehow try to link the service to profits made in some cases which would help to fund the service. Why should someone playing £4 a point pay the same as someone playing £50 a point? They both value the tips differently, so maybe they should be charged differential prices?

I think there is a lot of trust between myself and all the guys at the site. If I did think of doing something a bit different with subscriptions in the future, I'm sure they'd be keen to give a view of how things can work also. I'm just throwing around some potential ideas in my head but we'll see what happens!

I’m trying to not think too much about the future as things can change in this game very quickly I’m finding and the next long losing run could just be around the corner but that’s the life of a tipster I guess.

I’m sure a few of you are tracking my profits/losses on Racing Index. I decided a few weeks ago that I’d never manage to do well on RI simply due to the fact that all my winners have shortened significantly and therefore, it’s not a true indication of my profit.

Amazingly, I’m now in profit on RI and when you consider I was 28 points down on the 30th of October, to be in profit now shows the sort of form I’ve been in recently. To SP, I’ve made 36 points profit in 8 days and to suggested odds, I’ve made 46 points profit in 8 days.

46 points profit in 8 days...... :)

Much more like it!

2008-11-05T10:16:00.001Z

Profit since last update £376.46 + £140 subscriptions

Just a quick post to say that I’ve managed to haul my ass off the floor and start picking some winners again.

It’s been an amazing last week or so and with a little more luck, I’d be looking at much more profit than this. Importantly, the subscribers would have been looking at much, much more profit than this but this will come in time hopefully.

As at last Thursday, I’d managed to select 31 straight losers and being honest, things were looking very bleak. I’d lost all of the profits that the subscribers had won at the start of last month and I was 99.9% sure I was pulling the plug on the service at the year end as I’d have no subscribers left and we’d all be skint! :(

Roll on 7 days, 4 winners later (14/1, 5/1, 5/1 and 11/4) and placed horses at 10/1,13/2,9/2,12/1,10/1,9/1,14/1,10/1 and 7/2 and the world seems a much better place!

As I hinted at above, lady luck has deserted me big time and after seeing Idle Talk (14/1) trade at 1.04 on Sunday and lose on the run-in, I was all for jumping off the nearest bridge but thankfully, I followed it up with a 14/1 winner yesterday which made up for it in part.

I’ve now had 12 horses trade odds-on IR and lose in the past 3 weeks and this includes 2 in the past 3 days at 1.25 and 1.04 which is a killer!

Even allowing for the bad luck and missed opportunities, the P&L for the form analyst now looks like this:

Obviously, we could analyse this to death but basically, I went on the sort of run that would give any tipster a nightmare but it happens to everyone I guess. I’m probably more prone to longer losing runs due to the fact I’m very inexperienced at this game and when I hit the bad run, I struggled to cope with it and it just seemed to snowball and at one stage, my confidence was about as low as you could ever get!

At the moment, I’m feeling good again but probably not as good as JP as you can read across at his blog. http://spenner68.blogspot.com/

JP has been following me with chunky stakes since I started and the mind boggles how he managed to keep on going during the bad run but thankfully, he kept the faith and he’s now on an amazing streak himself and let’s hope it continues for both of us.

I’m up just over 30 points in 5 days which is a great run and I’m now looking forward to every selection running at the moment whereas a week ago, I was dreading it as I didn’t think any selections would win.

As you will have noticed, I’ve stopped quoting figures to SP as it’s not an indication of my subscribers’ profit. Every single selection that I’ve tipped and has won has shortened dramatically in price and Ashley Brook was another example yesterday. It was freely available at 14/1 all day and it opened on course at 14/1 and was backed down to 8/1.

I can see I’m 8 points down to SP on Racing Index now which will put me mid-table on there but a better indication is the fact I’m 14 points in profit to suggested odds. Some people would quote that Betfair SP works better but that only works if some of the winners are drifters. All of mines shorten pre-race, so the BF SP isn’t much different to the SP.

I’ve obviously cost myself a few pounds by not just following a staking plan and by laying off IR over the past week but I can’t have it both ways! Obviously, when I hit lots of winners, I’ll miss out but when horses like Idle Talk trade at 1.04 after being 16, then it makes it an easy decision to lay IR.

Draw a new line under this month!

2008-10-31T14:26:00.001Z

Profit since last update £265.79

After writing a review of the month and drawing a line under the month, the last two days have saw a further upturn in fortune for me and I’m posting another nice profit to complete this month so that it is recorded on the blog and is in my records.

In the last two days, I’ve analysed 6 races which has resulted in a winner, 2 seconds and a third along with 2 horses unplaced. 5 of the 6 have traded very low IR and I’ve made money on each of the 5 races and lost a little on one race.

Obviously, the winner has removed the monkey from my back regarding the losing run I was on with the tipping but being honest, it’s scant consolation for the month I’ve had.

I think the world is a strange place at times and especially where the gambling gods are concerned. For 7 weeks, I was purely punting my own selections and this was partly because I knew that most people at the site were doing this. However, I made the decision to stop doing this after I’d lost most of the subscriptions I’d collected and the world wasn’t looking that great for me or the subscribers.

8 days on, not a losing day in sight for me and everything appears to have ended on a bit of a high for my own personal punting. The subscribers won’t be feeling so great but I’m not going to hide the fact that I use my analysis to win money. That’s why people wanted me to give selections in the first place! Obviously, I’m disappointed with the way most of the selections have run and it’s been a poor month for The Form Analyst but thankfully, I personally don’t need winners to make money from trading the selections.

I’m trying to start discussions across at the site about different ways to make money from analysing a race using basic trading skills and some brains. Clearly, I’m never going to be a great trader and I’m unlikely to have a decent trading bank anytime in the near future as we enter recession and I’m paying a massive mortgage on a house that’s worth less than I paid for it!

However, I’ve made money all year by being smart on Betfair and from limited funds and as I’ve shown myself in the past week, when I’m in form and analysing races well, I can still make money. Obviously, the irony is the fact I was off sick for a few days and started trading again and it seems like I’ve never been away from it at all but I think the break has done me the world of good.

Before I started down on the whole tipping route, I was slightly disillusioned with trading and I was consistently annoyed with my lack of time and opportunity to do it. This hasn’t changed but now my attitude has changed a bit and I’m in no rush to make big bucks at the moment. The whole point of this experiment was to find a way to make money from my knowledge of horse-racing and obviously, any profit gathered along the way was greatly appreciated.

However, it was never the be all and end all and maybe I should have realised this. I’ve been reading back over my posts for May and June and at times, I was making the game seem very easy! Obviously, I then got a bit carried away and was trying to scale it up and try out a million different things when in all honesty, maybe that was as good as I ever was on Betfair. I was making £30 an hour from trading the horses and maybe that’s as good as I can be. If someone offered me that now, I’d take it every time!

Obviously, back then, I knew I wanted to try out different things and get better and be the best I can be but maybe I was pushing for something that I can’t achieve. Earning £500-£1k a month on top of my salary would put me in a hell of a good position and so what if other people can earn much more, they don’t have my job!

Anyway, these are just a few thoughts I shared on the forum at the site and I thought I’d share them here.

The Experiment was definitely an apt name and I’ve experimented with more things this year than any other gambling blog I’ve ever read!

I don’t think I’m finished experimenting yet…………..

Review of the month!

2008-10-28T14:39:00.004Z

Loss since last update £13.63

Firstly, where the hell have I been for the past 3 weeks or so?

As I said at the last time of writing, I was really struggling to make time for the blog with everything else that has been going on and trying to find winners and spend time answering posts on the forum was difficult. Therefore, I took the very easy decision to take time away from writing blog updates and I honestly didn’t think anyone would care! The blog isn’t dead………and won’t be until The Experiment finishes.......

I have to laugh to myself as I created the blog and generated the interest in the blog but some people really need to get out more. The number of anonymous comments over the past few weeks has been funny and there are too many to comment on! Basically, let’s just say that lots of people were really keen to see me fail and lose a lot of money from backing my own selections….

Here’s my monthly P&L on Betfair:

Clearly, it’s been another poor month for me and I’m not proud of the month if I’m honest. However, I’ve only traded about 5 days in the month and I’ve backed all of my horses on Betfair Mobile throughout the month, so I haven’t put much time into the trading side of things. To have won over £280 from this month’s trading isn’t a disaster considering how poor the selections have run!

I’m sure all of you have been cringing at the run of losers this month on Racing Index and clearly, it appears tipping isn’t the place for me. This month has reinforced the belief that I shouldn’t be gambling and I should really be adopting a strategy of backing my selections and trading IR which I am doing.

I have made the decision to stop the tipping from the start of 2009 unless things change dramatically. I can’t imagine there will be too many tears but I haven’t enjoyed the tipping aspect one little bit and the thought of doing this permanently doesn’t appeal to me. I will look at it again but it needs to be a spin-off of tipping.

One thing I would say is that I’m really keen on keeping the forum going at the site and the guys on there are a very knowledgeable and decent bunch of guys. Therefore, we will just switch to a forum site I guess at the start of 2009 where we will have very limited members and only invited guests will be allowed to join. Our own little club!

The first question everyone probably wants answered…..how the hell do I make money from backing 29 consecutive losers in a month? Well, without being Einstein, the same way as I have done all year!

If you think back, the only reason I got into this whole tipping game was because people were interested in my knowledge and the fact I could use my race-reading skills to make money from Betfair. However, this didn’t involve gambling and lots of people were saying that with my knowledge, why the hell would I trade and not gamble?

I’ve now wasted the 3 months trying to follow some pursuit of becoming a small time gambler and tipster when clearly, my knowledge is reading races and not picking winners. Therefore, I’m currently playing to my biggest weakness at the moment and not my biggest strength. Not only that, I’m charging people a small fee for that pleasure!

Let’s clear up this thing regarding the fee. I know lots of people weren’t happy with me charging a fee after a very poor free period. However, the fee was for my time and nothing else. If I wanted to rip people off, I would have charged £150 a month for the selections and analysis. I stand by the comment that I could have earned more than the subscriptions this month from working in a supermarket for a couple of evenings a week. I could have!

This month, I’ve been to hell and back for a net profit from subscriptions of around £140. I’ll earn the same next month and the following month. I don’t expect any future subscriptions and I’m guessing the site will stop for a break at the end of the year. £420 profit won’t set the world alight!

I touched on this above but the forum has been the best thing to come out of the last few months. I’ve obviously managed to hook up with Andrew this year which has helped me enormously and now I’ve met a pretty decent bunch of guys on the forum, so it bodes well for the future.

As you all know, the reason I trade horse-racing and not other sports is because it is my hobby. I hate trading and I’m not a trading fan. I’m a horse-racing fan that trades and that’s a pretty important distinction. I’m never going to be a trader and I accepted that a while ago.

So far this year, I’m now past the £3k mark from my activities on here and it’s hardly a disaster. As you all know, I work full-time and I do this for a bit of extra cash and a bit of enjoyment. It’s never been the plan to go full-time or go wild with my trading as I can’t afford to fail.

I’m not wanting to dwell too much on the tipping thing and how bad it is going but it hasn’t gone great. The best example I can think of is last week when I gave 3 selections. I narrowed 3 races down to 3, 2, 3 possible winners and I got the winners at SPs of 14/1, 7/1 and 4/1 but selected 3 losers. Fortunately for me, I was off sick and managed to use my analysis for a change!

I won a fair amount and it recouped all my previous losses for the month. Up until that point, I was odds on to have only my second losing month on Betfair but I turned it around and thankfully, I’m in a small profit again. That’s probably the best example of why I can’t be a tipster. I can’t expect people to pay for someone to narrow races down and choose the wrong selection.

At the start of last week, I narrowed a 16 runner handicap down to 5 and got the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th. My selection was 5th. If I was in the house for that race and on Betfair, I would have made a bomb. 3 of the selections traded odds on IR and all 5 were big prices. How many people can do that at this game? Very few IMO but on Racing Index, it’s another loser on the board!

Clearly, I’m not made for tipping and I’m costing people money. One thing I’ve been saying to people on the forum is that I’d like to continue to share ideas and thoughts on racing on a forum but I wouldn’t really want people to continue backing me blind.

Personally, it hasn’t been the worst month of the year and if you sum my trading winnings to the subscriptions, it’s hardly a disaster. Clearly, I’ve probably put a lot of effort into the month and it may not be worth my time for this amount. However, if I had more time to trade, it would have been a bit better.

I’m conscious of the fact that I’m now eating up my BF allowance for the premium charge and although I have a bit to go before the charge hits me, I should really look at opening up a Betdaq account and seeing how things works across there. That’s what I intend to do fairly shortly.

Overall, not the best month of The Experiment but not the worst month also and I’m hoping next month may prove to be a more profitable month!

Thanks to Leon and Steve for the comments by the way. It’s people like you guys that have been very supportive throughout The Experiment and are great supporters of the blog.

I do intend on updating the blog more regularly again but it will be weekly at best I’m afraid………

Taking the tipping world by storm!

2008-10-10T16:56:00.003+01:00

Daily Profit £160.50

After a lack of updates on here due to time constraints, I've now managed two posts in a day!

Being honest, it's always much easier to come on here after you've picked a winner and won a few quid, so I didn't want to let this opportunity pass me by! lol

I looked at two races today. You can see the analysis on the site but in the first race, I narrowed it down to 3. That doesn't tell the complete story though as I initially selected the winner last night but I changed my mind this morning to the eventual second after seeing the first shows today as the eventual selection looked a little short at 6/1 and 7/1. It then drifted to 8/1 and 9/1 in a place and I managed to get 10.5 on Betfair as did a few others.

So, I eventually chose the right horse to select and it was heavily punted on course again to win at 11/2. I was discussing the punting of my horses pre-race across on the forum as my horses are shortening an amazing amount pre-race this month which is probably different to last month but I'm sure it's no coincidence that this month is going better!

A few were pulling my leg about the fact it must mean I have lots of subscribers but it definitely isn't this! lol It's simply due to the fact that my horses are fairly solid selections which are well handicapped and primed to run well and this explains the odds shortening.

My second selection was only 3rd after being backed from 11/1 to 13/2 on course (was 15 on BF at one point and traded 2.6 IR) and it ran a great race from the front. It was beaten less than a length, so I won't complain.

One thing I have realised this month is why it is so difficult for tipsters on Racing Index to make decent profits. I'm 5 winners from 11 selections I think (can't remember if I'm honest) but I'm only about 12 points up to SP. I'm a little more to BF SP. I'll need to work out how much I'm up to suggested odds as I've definitely lost a few points this month by horses shortening dramatically pre-race.

I think the difference between today and the last few days is that I looked at 6 races last night and managed to choose which races suited me best. Recently, I've been forcing myself to analyse a race and maybe I was too keen to find a selection. This is probably just down to over-eagerness to prove myself to teh subscribers but I'm starting to chill a little now which can only help in the long-run!

Any ideas?

2008-10-10T12:20:00.002+01:00

£20.00 loss since last update

As I thought would happen, the blog has become the least important thing to update at nights now and it is starting to suffer.

At the moment, my nights entail writing a post race review for the day’s selections, answering any forum posts and PMs on the new site, answering any emails from people and lastly, analysing the racing for the following day which is obviously the most important thing!

Consequently, updating the blog has dropped on the to-do-list and it is starting to show on the blog and on the number of readers!

However, I’m determined to keep the blog alive and I’ll need to think of ways to kick some life into it again…..

Since my last blog update, I’ve had two selections and both have run poorly. My selection last night went off like a scalded cat and traded very low very quickly so I took the opportunity to get my stake back IR but it faded quickly at the end.

I’m not too concerned with a few losers as a long-run profit is what I’m aiming for here. Obviously, I’m in profit in the short-term at the moment due to my decent start this month but I’m sure the long-run will be fine!

I’ve started to kick off some discussions on the forum under a thread called ‘Ask Graeme’ where I’m happy to answer any questions on horse-racing form or anything else to do with horse-racing. It’s very early days but I think the guys appreciate this sort of thing as I want to effectively educate them so that they can select their own winners or at least understand my rationale a bit more. In time, I’m hoping they can start to look at races on their own and effectively rely on me less and on other tipsters less.

I’ll keep this post short and sweet today and I’ll have a think over the weekend about where the blog should go.

Good luck with your trading and punting!

If anyone has any potential ideas for the blog, drop me a note.....

50% strike rate on the day

2008-10-07T16:50:00.003+01:00

Daily Loss £40.00

Not for the first time this month, my subscribers have had a better day than me with their punting!

I gave out two selections today with a winner at 4/1 (SP) and a 4th. The winner was easily one of the most interesting horses I’ve selected since I began sharing info with readers/subscribers and I’m really pleased that it won.

In the past, I have spent lots of time analysing selling races and claiming races on the flat. At one time, I got so good at it, I packed in the handicap analysis and only analysed these other races. On reflection, I decided this wasn’t a wise move and over time, I’ve moved more towards handicaps. The reason for this is simply because there isn’t as much value in the other types of races. I end up selecting lots of favourites and short-prices!

Today, I was very sweet on a horse called Dazzling Begum. I spotted it last night and it was trading at 10 on Betfair. I couldn’t quite understand why if I’m honest but the saying “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” springs to mind!

Last night, I sent my analysis off to Andrew to proof read and when I checked this morning, he agreed with me that it was a great spot. It was only 9am, so I had to wait for the first shows before sending out my note.

The very first show I saw was from Blue Square at 7/1. I had to move quickly. By the time the email was set to go, it had already been cut to 9/2 there. I issued the note saying that 5/1 was the best price available (it was on oddschecker!) but I know 2 guys in the forum got 11/2 an 6/1, so it definitely wasn’t the best price in the whole market.

Anyway, the horse turned out to be the steamer of the day and was trading at 2/1 with some bookies. I wrote a forum post saying I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole at 2/1 no matter how keen I was on it. Not surprisingly, it drifted on course from an opening show of 3/1 all the way out to 4/1. It then traded at 100 IR for £117 before getting up to win by half a length! Phew………

In the midst of all this excitement this morning, I forgot to go on BF Mobile to back the damn thing and when I checked at lunchtime, the prices were well gone. I then couldn’t be bothered going on my phone at my desk to back it at the off as I was fairly busy and as luck would have it, it drifted quickly and then won!

Obviously, slightly annoyed I missed a winner to be honest but at least the subscribers backed it. As I said to Andrew straight after, it cost me £80 by not backing it but in the long-run, if I can keep churning out the winners, people will be able to use my info to win much more than this and I’ll hopefully get some rewards down the line!

My second selection was Charles Darwin and it ran poorly in 4th. I was a bit off with my analysis if I’m being honest as I would never have selected the Cecil winner. Won’t dwell on it too much though as I can’t expect to select every winner.

Obviously, I managed to halt my losing run at 1, but I’m back on a losing run of 1 again which equals my longest run, so I need to find a winner tomorrow!

Overall, I’m 4 winners from 7 selections now which is a great start for me. I’m still not appearing on the Racing Index Comparison tables yet as they only update that every so often but when they do, I won’t have too many in front of me at the minute. You can still check my results by clicking on the link at the right and selecting the back box instead of the lay box.

Very early days to be thinking about league tables obviously but it’s a decent start to the month. Importantly, I’m actually really enjoying the banter with the guys at the site and I’m finding it a privilege to be picking winners for them! I think people really believe in me across at the site and that’s a great feeling. Getting off to a good starts helps obviously but I think that they agree that in the long-run, I have enough knowledge to be able to make consistent profits.

A few of the guys are really keen to get started learning about some basics of form reading and I’m hoping to kick this off now. Obviously, it will play second fiddle to my own form studies as I need to ensure that I continue to pick winners consistently but I don’t mind spending a little bit of time helping them understand my methods and what I do. Without them, I wouldn’t be getting this chance to showcase my talents!

What? A well backed loser......

2008-10-06T17:51:00.002+01:00

Daily Profit £2.60

Before I discuss today's losing selection, I just wanted to mention the forum across at the new site. As I've made clear on here from the outset, I always saw the forum as a pivotal tool across at the new site. So far, we've had over 200 posts in a week and it's being used exactly as I intended.

I actually managed to make a tiny profit today simply due to the fact that one of the subscribers put up a horse called Starlight Gazer. As a few of you will remember, this was my first maximum bet during the 'free' month. It was well beaten that day after staying on late when slowly away. I did see it last night but it was running in a 17 runner race. Today, after 9 non-runners in the race, it suddenly looked a great opportunity for it and I'm pleased to see it won.

I only had a couple of quid on it today as I was trying to pay for my upcoming bet and it worked well! :) I'd like to say thanks to my subscriber friend at the forum!

I initially had two selections today but both were non-runners. I subsequently decided to go for another horse in one of the races and it was probably the correct decision even allowing for the fact it was well beaten. The horse opened up on track at 6/1 (it was about 8/1 this morning) and was backed off the boards to 7/2 second favourite. Clearly, the market saw the same as me but for once, we were both wide of the mark.

Being honest, I really don't mind well backed losers. As I've said many times on here, my intention at this game is to make a profit in the long-run. In my opinion, if you select horses which are overpriced and are backed heavily pre-race, as long as you are not betting at SP, you'll do very well in the long-run.

Since I'm being proofed on Racing Index, I've been looking in depth at how other tipsters do on there. Since this is my blog, I can be fairly truthful on here. The results are pretty much a disaster! In all honesty, I can't believe how bad they are.

Looking at a 12 month period, there is barely a tipster that can generate a 100 point profit to SP. Most can't even generate a profit! As I've said before on here, my target was to make 240 points a year at this game. Having seen the results on there, maybe I misunderestimated how difficult that target may be to achieve!

However, maybe it's just the case that very few of the guys on there are very good at all and don't have a consistent method which will produce long-term profits? I really don't know to be honest and I don't really want to comment on other rival tipsters after 6 days of 'real' tipping but it was quite interesting I thought.

I'm currently down to a strike rate of 60% for the month now which means I can do with a winner tomorrow to get back on track. I've equalled my longest losing run of 1 now, so I don't want to set a new record tomorrow!

A non-runner....

2008-10-04T17:58:00.002+01:00

Daily Loss £30.00

I showed remarkable discipline today by only selecting one runner but it was a non-runner.

When I found out, I quickly reanalysed the race on the forum for anyone who was reading it and I came out with a possible 3 winners. I ruled out one which left two. Annoyingly, they have finished first and second but I backed the wrong one!

Being honest, I've not had a great day for punting and that sums it up. My horse hung very badly across the track and chucked it away IMO.

My intial analysis ruled the winner out when I completed it last night but I changed the going in my reanalysis and out popped the winner in the final two.

As I've said many times on here, ground is crucial in race analysis and the ground at Redcar was definitely not riding good IMO. It was at least good to soft and this was confirmed in the results.

Apologies for the short post tonight but I'm getting ready to go out for a housewarming party at a friends!

Another Day, Another Winner.........

2008-10-03T20:47:00.001+01:00

Daily Profit £76.00

I’m struggling for words to describe the results since I stopped the free trial but all my analyses are across at the new site for people to see……

Today, another one selection and another winner. The horse was available at 4/1 this morning and won at 10/3. Being honest, picking horses that win at 10/3 doesn’t give me great satisfaction but today, I will take an amazing amount of satisfaction from the analysis.

This morning, I first narrowed it down to 4 which included the first 3 home which paid £573 on the Trifecta. Even more importantly, I selected the right horse to select.

As I said this morning, I was very close to selecting the second home (16/1) but I decided against it (phew!). To turn down a value bet at 16/1 to select a value bet at 4/1 is a massive step in the right direction for me and shows a maturity that I probably lacked last month if I’m honest.

The key to the race was the pace and I said the front 3 would go too fast and spoil each other’s chances which was a great call. This set it up for a horse who could travel well and quicken off a fast pace and Louphole and Buy On The Red both fitted this description. The fact they finished 1st and 3rd is good but the fact I chose the correct one to back is even better!

That makes it 6 winners from 7 short prices and even better, makes it 5 winners overall this week from 6 selections (if I push my luck just a little with my half analysis – lol) or 4 winners from 5 if I exclude that. Whatever way you look at it, I’m in decent form again and the fact the guys across at the site are lapping it up is even better.

Andrew used a great quote today in a comment which said that ‘class is permanent whereas form is temporary’ and that’s basically what I was saying all last month when people appeared to be jumping out of windows when I was on the losing run. It’s very early days in this new venture and I’ve got an awful lot of work to do before I get anywhere but you can rest assured I’m working as hard as I can to find winners.

As I said last night, tonight is the final chance for anyone to sign up for £30 a month. I had a few new subscribers today which is nice and they all started with a winner which will please them. I’m really having fun across at the new site and I haven’t asked for any feedback on the site or overall service yet (we are only officially on day 3 lol) but I guess people are really enjoying it. That pleases me a great deal and as I’ve said all along, all I want is for people to get their money’s worth.

To finish tonight, I’m going to offer an apology to Racereader after my comments last night. I’ve been emailing him today and I apologised for the comments and for publishing some comments today. I didn’t mean for people to have a go at him and it all got a bit out of hand today as people were trying to post offensive comments on here to have a pop at the guy.

Last month, I was deeply affected by some of the comments that people made on here and I felt the criticism was unjust and out of order. Therefore, I know what it feels like to have people criticise you for doing little wrong. Racereader had kindly offered to send his analysis to people free of charge like I had done for all of last month and as I’ve said many times on here, I really want to encourage people to read analysis and try to learn. Therefore, I’m not going to let anonymous knobs come on here and slag the guy off.

I had hoped to lift the moderation from the blog soon but clearly, I’ve collected a little bunch of half-wits who are reading the blog and until they go away, the moderation will have to continue.

5 winners in 6 selections on shorties!

2008-10-02T18:02:00.004+01:00

Today, I analysed one race fully and it was another winner on the board. Annoyingly, there were a few non-runners in the race which made the price half from when I analysed the race but I won’t complain about another winner this month. That’s 2 winners from 3 selections this month and I’ve finally managed to hit a bit of form.

As was discussed on the forum tonight, that’s me now had more winners in the last 5 days than I had during the whole 26 days free period which sounds crazy but all it shows was how easy it is to pick losers when things don’t go your way.

Yesterday, I narrowed the race down to 2 and got a 14/1 forecast and selected the winner. Today, I narrowed a tricky little race down to 3 and had the 1st, 3rd and 4th. Again, I chose the right horse to select and it makes a nice difference from last month.

I had 2 points win today at suggested odds of 4/1 but it won at 7/2 although it was over 4/1 on BF I believe.

One stat I find absolutely amazing is that on horses I’ve selected at 4/1 or lower in the last 6 weeks, I’ve had 5 winners and a 4th from 6 selections. The winners have been 4/1, 5/2, 10/3, 7/2, 7/2 at SP. Without being Einstein, as I keep saying on here, I’m never going to select short priced horses unless I think there is value there. Anyone who likes shorties can't lose at the moment and long may it continue.

Out of courtesy to my current subscribers, the £30 a month offer will end tomorrow night. I’ve given people enough of an opportunity to subscribe and after tomorrow night, the price will revert to the standard price of £50 a month.

The forum across at the site is being used regularly and I’ve got some great ideas about things to use it for in the near future. This will include lessons in how to unpick races and I’ve already started work on these. I’m also working on a trading paper as somehow was very keen on learning about trading IR and in time, I’m hoping the forum may be the place for people to come to learn about trading/gambling and picking winners.

Away to get stuck into tomorrow’s form now and I’m hoping to find a selection or two. Remember that you can read today's analysis across at the other site tonight! I want to post up each day's analysis on the site post race so people can see how I did. As I keep on saying on here, I really don't have anything to hide. I have an 'edge'!

3 winners in 5 days.....

2008-10-01T20:34:00.002+01:00

I’ve been away on business for a couple of days, so that explains my lack of blog updates!

Well, the site has got off to a decent start and I’ve managed to grab enough subscribers to make it worthwhile in month 1. Being honest, I’ve actually grabbed enough subscribers for 3 months since most guys have signed up for the maximum duration, so let’s hope I can repay their faith in me!

As you all know, I had a winner on Saturday. On Monday, I was in the process of doing an analysis of a race someone else had looked at and I ran out of time to finish the analysis. The horse I was sweet on won at 9/1 though although I posted the analysis up 2 mins before the off (lol), so I won’t be saying I had a winner there!

On Monday night, I was going through the cards for Tuesday very quickly as I should have been working on my analysis for today since I was down in London last night and didn’t have access to my laptop.

I noticed a horse going at Southwell called Majuro. As all of you know, I have a huge sweetspot for Mick Easterby and I can read his horses better than any other trainer in Britain. This was another one of his ‘special’s where it had shown no form all season but it had been running on the wrong ground, wrong trip etc.

Anyway, it was an obvious spot so I decided to post the horse on the forum and tell everyone to keep an eye out for it since I was away and couldn't do a full analysis. It was the only ride that Graham Gibbons had all day and he’s only used by Mick on horses he fancies blah, blah, blah.

I’ve said all of this during the free trial when I couldn’t get anything right and most people probably thought I was making it up. Well, the horse absolutely bolted in at 12/1 (15) on Betfair and it made me smile to myself in London when I saw the result. I was going to have a tenner on it but I couldn’t get near a bookies all day and it really does sum up my month. I’ve never been so glad to see the back of a month in my life to be honest but finishing it off with a 12/1 winner was a good way to end it.

So, that led us onto today. Today was the first ‘real’ day of the subscription service and I spent about an hour analysing the 5.20 race. I don’t think I’ve worked so hard to ensure I could pick the winner and I narrowed it down to two horses. Thankfully, they finished first and second and even better, I chose the right horse to select! Yipeeee……

The forecast paid 14/1 and the winner paid 7/2 at SP(less a R4), so it was a nice start to the new service.

My other selection was my old friend Malapropism. If you remember, after doing the post race review on here last time, I begged the stable to put the visor back on the horse if they were reading the blog as it was crying out for it. Amazingly, (not for the first time may I add!), a stable listens to what I have to say and throw the visor on it. Annoyingly, it didn’t make a jot of difference and it ran way below form.

Even more annoying, the other two horses on the form line were second and third, so Mala has let the side down again and I’m giving up on the horse for the time-being! It had perfect conditions today and at 14/1, it was a decent bet. It ran well for 4f but faded badly and if the stable are listening to me again, put the horse away for the season now. You have a well handicapped horse that is badly out of form and by running it, it’s just making poor souls like me continue to back it! Please put me out of my misery….

Overall, my first day of being proofed as a tipster has led me to a winner and a loser. Not bad. Obviously, I don’t get any bonus marks from the proofing site for selecting the 14/1 forecast or for saying other horses couldn’t win but that’s the way this tipster market works I suppose.

I’m obviously just back from London tonight and I had a quick look in on the forum. I can see we have had 100 forum posts already (only been live a few days!) and things look very good in there. I know the guys who have signed up want to learn and I’ve got lots of ideas about how we use the forum to help each other. At the moment, time isn’t on my side for things like this but as we get past this week and the month starts to move on, I’ll be spending much more time in the forum and in the chat room and it should be a lot of fun!

As you all know, I’ve had major issues with Paypal this month (teething problems) and I’m guessing a few of you maybe got annoyed that you couldn’t sign up for the start of the month. Therefore, I’ve decided to keep the price at £30 for a month for anyone who still wants to sign up in the next week. After that, the price will revert to the standard price of £50 a month.

I’ve also decided to share all of my race analyses after the event on the site for people who read the blog but haven’t subscribed. As I’ve said before, all my selections are being proofed on Racing Index also, so you can check how I’m doing on there. I’ll put a link on the side of the blog for you.

I still laugh when I think about the free trial. I had 4 winners in 26 days and yet, I’ve had 3 winners since Saturday (at advised prices of 13/2, 14/1 and 5/1 (less R4)). This really is a strange game and I feel a bit sorry for a few of you who followed me last month and haven’t subscribed but I tried my best last month and didn’t have much luck. Maybe I’ve saved a bit of luck up for this month!

Annoyingly, due to the fact I was down in London, I couldn’t back Majuro or today’s winner, so my members are doing better than me…lol

A sad day & reply to recent comments

2008-09-28T19:57:00.002+01:00

As all of you know, I have very strong views on not moderating comments on this blog and I’ve been lucky enough that I haven’t had too many idiots reading the blog. I think my blog is one of the last few blogs I read that doesn’t moderate comments but I’m going to have to enable moderation for the time-being.

As I’ve said many times on here, I really don’t mind people having a go at me or slagging me off. I’m a big boy and I can take it. However, an anonymous poster has continually been posting offensive comments and last week, I had to delete 3 comments which were abusive. Being honest, this sort of thing happens on blogs and if the comments are aimed at me, I don’t really mind.

This morning, I had a quick check of the blog before I popped out for the day and I saw that some idiot had tried to answer a question that George asked by imitating someone else and the guy is clearly an idiot of the highest order. Therefore, I’m left with no option but to moderate comments.

However, my principles still stand. I will publish every single comment that anyone makes even if they are having a go at me. I also don’t mind anonymous comments, so you won’t need a Google account to be able to post. However, no abusive comments will be posted and no comments from anyone pretending to be anyone else.

I can’t believe how stupid some people can be but isn’t it always the case that some knob spoils it for everyone…….He has even gone to the bother of getting a Google name pretending to be someone else! What an absolute tosser…..I can only imagine his shock today when he attempted to post up again and I intercepted it. lol

Apologies for the time it’s taken to reply to the recent comments but as the guys across at the new site know, I’m trying to take a few days away from things before the start of next month. This month has been a draining month both physically and mentally. Doing a quick calculation, I reckon I’ve spent 50 hours on form analysis, and 60 hours on emails and website design etc. 110 hours out of anyone’s life in a month is a fair chunk. 110 hours out of someone’s life who is out the house from 8am-6pm 5 days a week is too much…….

I have changed my profit for the month to take account of £83.67 profit yesterday. I won 7 points to suggested stakes yesterday (not 8 as quoted elsewhere), so as someone rightly commented last night, I’m actually -6 points on the month now. I stupidly decided to halve my stakes yesterday as I was worried about losing too much this month and as luck would have it, I have a winning day. I really haven’t got much right this month……

As someone also commented below, it’s Murphy’s Law that I have a winning day as soon as I stop emailing everyone on my distribution list. However, I really don’t think this proves anything new to anyone. I’ve given a free trial of 26 days this month. If people haven’t got the gist of what I know and how well I’m likely to do in the long-run, I really don’t see how one extra day makes a bit of difference.

Here’s my reply to all the comments made on the last post:

Hi Cassini.

I don’t want to dwell too much on your point mate as I know you were highlighting the irony of the fact I’m trying to start a subscription service off the back of a very poor month for me. It was maybe lost a little in translation!

I agree with what you are saying about the additional free month but that assumes that the 26 day trial didn’t give people a chance to see what I can do. I worked my ass off to ensure that I gave people a flavour of what I can do but in the end, time beat me and my results suffered a bit at the end.

Giving up another 60 hours of my time next month for absolutely zero reward doesn’t really appeal and I know it would get me a lot more subscribers in month 2 but all of my tips are being proofed independently from next month anyway, so people will be able to see how I’m doing and can make their own decisions regarding future months.

Only point I want to reiterate is that I’m not charging to make a profit. At the moment, I’ll be struggling to cover the cost of my own time and that excludes any website costs etc. Charging £30 a month was only to say thanks to everyone who has been reading the blog. There are quite a lot of people out there who charge five times the price who don’t have a tenth of my knowledge and that’s fact. Lots of people who buy tips have told me this.

Thanks for the comment mate and for wishing me good luck. I can do with some luck for next month!

Hi Racereader.

Excellent plug mate. I’d be really keen to post some of your free analysis on the blog. My email address is on the profile page. Drop me a note and I’ll post it on here. Why don’t you start up a website and try to charge people mate?

Good luck with your venture and I look forward to reading your ‘free’ analysis. I see you set your account in the last few days. Are the anonymous person in disguise? I’ll let the readers decide……

Hi Dave.

lol @ humble pie….

I really don’t feel like I have much to prove mate. The way some people have reacted to me having a losing month is great in a sense as it shows that they thought I was capable of much better. I agree with them!

I mentioned the price point above to Cassini but once I’ve proved myself over a longer period, you can be sure that the price will be going up! :)

However, as I’ve said before on here, people who are with me from day 1 will always be well looked after. Differential pricing is something that happens in the insurance world everyday and I don’t see why it won’t work here. No Claims Discount is a popular one and I’ll have a loyalty bonus for members. The longer you are with me, the cheaper the discount on the price that Joe Public will pay!

It’s not surprising that I had a good winner yesterday as it sums up my month. I really need to stop using that phrase but I really can’t believe my bad luck this month.

Hi Andrew.

Nice to see you really appreciated the in-depth analysis of my month results mate! :)

I agree that I should be judged to selected stakes and odds. None of my winners have been backed in the morning (lots of losers have been!) and all my winners were heavily backed on course, so people got better odds.

One thing I’ve just remembered is that Fort Churchill won at 11/1 and I gave it at 8/1, so there’s 3 points lost there and helps explain the -6 points. Throw in the very poor staking (3 points on 25/1 isn’t wise after the event) and the fact I lost this month is laughable.

Your point about the analysis is true and it will be my USP. I haven’t spoken too much on here before about other tipsters but I have seen lots of examples of what other tipsters do from readers. Very few are in the same league as me with regards to knowledge but clearly, they are doing this full-time and have years of experience. I’m part time with 27 days experience, so comparisons at the moment are impossible and that explains the price I want to charge next month.

I agree that I do more than provide tips and people can learn from my analysis and hopefully, people will realise that. Whatever happens, I’m proud of this month and the fact I gave people the opportunity to see what I can do free of charge. At least I don’t need to worry about high expectations next month! lol

Hi Kevin.

It always makes me feel good to get new commenters although I remember adding you to the list after Fort Churchill!

When I did the analysis on the blog in the Summer, I didn’t give enough hints about what to look for someone to start using my methods. I aim to improve on that over at the new site.

The time element is easily the thing that people underestimate. It takes me around 2-3 hours a night to find the right races, right horses, and to write up the analysis. I manage to look at a fair few races as I can compute the data in my head fairly quickly and I’ll never manage to teach that! However, you’ll pick up on the key things to look for and this will help you with the time element.

Even knowing what I know, it still takes time, hard work and dedication to make it work in the long-run. I wish more than anyone that this month would have gone better but it wasn’t to be. Honesty is something that I really believe in and I couldn’t do any of this without 100% honesty. Last night’s post was a nightmare to write since I know I was effectively killing my chances of some subscriptions next month but that’s life.

Hi George.

I selected Guilded Warrior at 13/2 yesterday for 2 points win. My results will always be available for anyone who asks mate as I’ve got nothing to hide. It was 7 points profit on the day as my other horses ran poor but nothing new there this month!

Thanks for wishing me luck.

Hi David.

Many thanks for your nice comment. As you know, I do aim to make this fun and profitable in the long-term and being honest, there are worse ways than spending £30 for a month’s entertainment! Putting it on my horses this month is one way…lol

In time, I aim to work my way up the Racing Index table but time will tell. I have time on my side as I’m only 26 and been doing this for 27 days, so I’m sure I’ll improve greatly as time moves on.

Look forward to working with you next month! In time, I’ve a feeling you may be a very good form reader yourself from what you’ve showed me thus far.

Finally….(I do write a lot at times!), thanks for all the comments and for the support a few of you have already showed across at the new site. People appear to be favouring the 3 month service which means that they have faith in my ability to do well at this even after last month. This means a lot to me……

Monthly Review......

2008-09-27T17:32:00.008+01:00

This could be a long post but it’s important that I write this post no matter how bad it looks for me……

As the month has gone on, this post was always going to look bad and after a poor end to the month, it isn’t going to be a great read for anyone. The fact I’ve chosen to have my worse month of the year while giving a free trial and trying to start a subscription service is quite ironic. I thought it may have led to a slower start to the subscription service but this hasn’t been the case, so it appears that people are willing to judge me on the long-run and not on 26 days of selections.

Personally, I think this is no bad thing as I’d hate to think that people were buying a service that promised amazing results like 90% of tipsters do. My results are available for all to see and giving a free trial was a brave decision for anyone who wanted to start a subscription service but I know my results long-term, so I have nothing to hide.

As most of you know, I like to analyse my performance and I keep detailed stats of everything. That’s part of the reason why I know I’ll do well in the long-run but all you guys are judging me on 26 days of this month, so I’ll only analyse these results in this post.

I suppose the best place to start is to share all of my results. This includes a form comment for every horse, SPs, suggested odds, my staking plan and various ways to track the P&L etc. I always tend to track this sort of thing when I’m punting as it’s important to check that my method of selecting winners works over a sustained period.

Here are the results:

Basically, everyone can sit and look at these anyway you want. As I’ve said, I’ll never try to hide the fact it was a poor month and I’ve admitted that all the way through this month. However, I don’t judge myself on one poor month and I know some of you won’t either. Obviously, I know lots of you will judge me on this month and believe that this is a true representation of my ability and I’m happy with that. If you really think I spend hours looking at form every year to make substantial losses, then I won’t try to disagree with you.

I’ve picked out a few things to look at to try to pinpoint where it’s gone wrong this particular month to share with you. Here’s a table with a few interesting observations:

In the long-run, I know my strike rate is 15%. This is basically fact as it’s something I’ve tracked over a very long period anytime I’ve been punting for a sustained period. This month, my strike rate was only 9.5% which is down 35% on the long-run average. Very disappointing and is the main reason I have lost this month. I haven’t picked enough winners. It is as simple as that.

I usually get a return on about 20% of my bets as I don’t use each-way very often and when I do, it usually works. This month, my each-way betting has been poor and only one selection has been placed when I’ve selected each-way. That can be put down to poor judgement on my part as I don’t use each-way often enough and maybe I shouldn’t have used it at all this month. Something to consider for the future for me…..

Other obvious points are the number that trade at least half in running, the number of runners in each race (I pick the hardest races) and the average SP is very interesting.

In the long-run, my average SP is usually around 10/1. This month, it’s a good deal higher and I’m not sure why. Part of it was probably trying to show off when I could have selected more likely horses to win with a little less value in races but overall, not too disappointed from that point of view. 95% of my selections were value bets.

This table tells another interesting story this month:

During the month, lots of people were asking me to select shorter priced horses as they like to lump on bankers. As I’ve said all month, it’s not my thing as I really struggle to calculate value in large field handicaps on short priced horses. Therefore, anytime I select a short priced runner, it must be very ‘well in’ and represent great value. If anyone had purely lumped on my short-priced horses, they’d be 10 points up with 4 bets. I’m guessing no one did that last month………

To not have a winner from 18 selections at 9/2 to 10/1 is very, very poor to be honest and this is a freak occurrence. Obviously, Overrule was second twice at 5/1 when in my opinion, it should have won twice and ultimately, 2 poor jockeys have cost me a fair bit this month. This sort of thing happens to every tipster though and I’m a great believer that in the long-run, this sort of thing levels out. I won’t complain too much.

As I’ve made clear on here, the reason that I do so well with horse-racing punting is because I can pick large price winners consistently. This month, an 11/1 winner with three 14/1 seconds is a bit of a killer and it’s killed my chances of a massive profit this month. In time, this will even itself out though and a few of these seconds would have won and I’d have made 40 points in the month easily. Didn’t happen this month though……

Overall, all I needed was Overrule to have a better jockey once, River Falcon to have a longer nose or Sphinx to not bump into Bollin Felix when that one was so well handicapped and I’d been looking at breaking-even in a very, very poor month. If I can do this is a poor month, what will I do in a good month? Time will tell………

Below is a graph of my bank this month. It shows my P&L to SP and level stakes, BSP and level stakes and Suggested Odds and Stakes.

None of these make good reading for me but one thing I would say is that tracking my results to SP this month was never going to be good. All of my 4 winners nearly halved in price (on-course) and therefore, no one backed any of these winners at SP. However, I said at the start of the month that I’d track to SP and it allows comparisons to be made with other tipsters.

Overall, I lost 15 points to SP at level stakes, 13 points to suggested odds and stakes and 8.3 to Betfair SP at level stakes.

Personally, since none of my winners were backed in the morning and the suggested odds were widely available, a 13 point loss is a true reflection on the month. I’m sure everyone has a different view but that’s my honest opinion.

One thing that’s struck me this month is how over the top the criticism has been of my performance. I think I’m a victim of the hype surrounding me and what I know and people seriously expected me to make 100 points profit this month. To make a very large profit in any month, you need big winners and big winners don’t come along as frequently as you like. When they don’t come along frequently in the same month, you lose in that month. That’s the name of the game when you gamble…….

Lastly, I said at the start of the month I’d compare myself to tipsters on Racing Index. Obviously, people can tear me to shreds here but you need to remember that you are comparing my worst month this year with other tipsters. My worst month is nowhere near as bad as other tipsters’ worst month and this needs to be factored in.

From next month, all of my selections will be proofed on Racing Index and we’ll see how I do in the long-run. I’m still as confident as I’ve always been and one bad month won’t undo my previous performance during my punting life.

I know lots of people will question why I can ask people to pay for selections after making a loss during the trial month but firstly, how many tipsters out there give subscribers a free month? Very, very few if any.

Secondly, I made it clear at the start of the month that this month was to give a flavour of what I can do. After knowing that there was a demand for what I do, I had to start planning for next month. Therefore, I eased off the analysis and started working towards next month. I’m a one-man band with a full-time job and I assumed that people would understand if results tailed off towards the end of the month. I only have 24 hours in my day and spending 3 hours on analysis in the second half was not possible.

Looking back, I maybe took it for granted that the winners would continue to flow and I wish I hadn’t. The month was meant to be a flavour of what I do and I gave that in the first week. I should have then stopped the trial and waited until next month instead of juggling too many things. The selections suffered a little but I always knew it would only be a matter of time before the winners flowed again. I won’t get that chance to prove that to many of you now and it will cost me a couple of subscribers but that’s life.

Below are comparison tables with all the tipsters on Racing Index. No comments to make apart from to remind you that you are comparing my worst month with many of their best. Tables don’t lie though……

"Ran into a wall of trouble"

2008-09-26T23:18:00.001+01:00

Daily Loss £100.00

Going to keep this short tonight as I’ve had a long week and I’ve had a nightmare with Paypal on the site tonight. It seems that Paypal won’t accept some cards but I’ve got a way around it, so it shouldn’t do too much damage. If anyone has any problems, just let me know.

Well, today was the last day of the free month and after somehow managing to get Overrule beaten last time when it was so well handicapped, I’ve managed to repeat it again today! I’ve now lost £120 (6 tipping points) on a horse which has finished in front of 28 horses in two starts and last time, it would have won by 2 lengths without the winner and today, it would have won by 4 lengths easily without the winner.

Last time, it was given a very poor ride in my opinion and having watched the replay tonight, I struggle for words to describe the ride today. Obviously, the winner has won well but Overrule gave it a dozen lengths start. The RP said “effort when ran into wall of trouble 2f out” and that just about sums it up. It was well backed again today and the trainer must be pulling his hair out.

I said last time it was the best bet of the month and I hinted at that again today and I really can’t believe it has lost again. If there is one day it sums up my month, it’s today.

My first selection today was Totally Focussed and it has finished 16th of 16 beaten 40 lengths. Absolutely tailed off by miles and it really doesn’t get any worse than that! As I said this morning, I had a feeling it was an AW horse but I took a chance it may have handled the ground today. Clearly, the horse is an AW horse and it cost us 1 point to find out. Next time, it should be a decent price back on the AW, so I’d keep the faith with it and give it another shot to prove it is well handicapped.

My final selection also sums up the month. The Racing Post comment was “slowly into stride and rear, ridden along well over 2f out, switched right and good headway on outer over 1f out, finished strongly.”

This was Harvest Warrior and as I said this morning, it stays on very late in the day over 8f and next time, probably over 9f or 10f, this would be approaching a penalty kick. Not much good for my free month but I’ll happily take the luck I’m due next month.

3 selections on the day. A tailed off last, an unlucky loser and an eye-catcher…..Nothing new there then!

I don’t think I’ve ever been so glad to see the back of a month as I will be for this month. I’ve even moved into a loss personally on the month which is disappointing as I have only had 1 losing month this year, but I’ll hopefully turn that around this weekend.

One point I’ve always made on here is that I really don’t believe that luck comes into horse-racing punting in the long-term. Obviously, everyone goes through a run of bad luck and I’ve had mines this month but that’s life…..

I’ll do a post tomorrow night concerning the results this month and it won’t be a pretty read. As the anonymous commenter keeps reminding me, it’s been a bad month. I have all the detailed results and whatever way you look at it, it’s not been a great month. If the name of the game was to select seconds I’d be having a great month but winners are what matters and I haven’t had enough of these.

Personally, the most interesting stat is the fact that around one third of my horses have finished well beaten. That’s the sort of thing that layers would be aiming for. :)

I’ll probably have to revise my target for the number of points I aim to win in the next 12 months then……. I’ll aim for 240 points now as I think 360 may be a little ambitious after seeing what’s happened this month.

240 points in 12 months…..Sounds easy!!!! :)

www.theformanalyst.co.uk

2008-09-25T20:23:00.001+01:00

Well, the secret is out of the bag as you can see by the title……

My new website is http://theformanalyst.co.uk/

I thought long and hard about the name but it became fairly obvious. My best skill is analysing form and therefore, the name sort of made sense to me.

It’s taken a little bit of time to get Paypal set up on the site and I’d ask everyone who wants to sign up to be patient. I’m sure there will be lots of ‘bugs’ on the site and it will take a few days to flush them all out. If anyone does have problems signing up for example, drop me a note and I’ll try to get it fixed.

In summary, once people sign up and pay, they will need to be set up on the site. Obviously, I won’t be around 24 hours a day to set people up, so you will need to be patient. You also need to choose a username at signup and this will be the name that you use to post on the forum, so please don’t use anything rude!

Once you receive your password for the site, you will gain access to the member’s section of the site. Here, you will gain access to all of my pre/post race analyses this month, access to a forum and chat room and I’m also going to be issuing a weekly report. The weekly report will contain a review of the week’s racing and things like horses to follow etc.

From the beginning of next month, all of my tips will be proofed on Racing-Index. This is simply so people can see how I’m doing and it saves me from having to record all of the results in detail. They will do it for me!

Unlike most other tipsters I guess, I don’t really want to use the proofing site as a way to advertise my skills. I’m determined to offer a service whereby I won’t be judged on my proofed selections. Obviously, most punters will judge me on these and rightly so but it’s not really the be all and end all with me. There are many ways to win money from using my knowledge and I tend to explore as many of these as possible!

I’ve made a decision to reduce the price for next month for people who read my blog and have been receiving the month’s free trial. I’ve also included an option for people to buy a single month or up to three months. Given the events of last month, anyone who is still not convinced by me should either buy one month or continue to read the blog and keep track of my performance on the proofing site.

I made a point of saying in my email today that I don’t really want people to sign-up who don’t believe in me. As I’ve said before, one reason for this site is simply to create a space where I can discuss horse-racing with people who have an interest in racing. There are lots of horse-racing forums out there and I’ve looked at lots over the past few years and none are very good in my opinion.

I gave the Handicap Forum a try and that worked great but only 3 people posted as I scared most of the people away who disagreed with me! lol

I know there are lots of you out there who buy tips and maybe have a keen interest in horse-racing who want to learn. In a few months time, you won’t need to buy tips again if you can pick up enough knowledge from me.

I’m sure a few of you think that this is going to be a great money-making adventure for me….As I’ve said before, I’m pricing it in such a way to ensure I cover the costs for my own time. I’m not interested in making a profit. I can make a profit from punting, I don’t need large subscriptions.

In time, if I prove myself over a sustained period, the profits will come naturally and people will come looking to be part of the service I provide. I’m confident enough in my own ability to forego short-term gains for a chance at long-term profits. In the meantime, this gives you all the opportunity to buy a service at a fraction of the price it is worth.

This weekend, I’ll be around the site on the chat room and I’ll hopefully catch up with some of you on there. Next week, I’ll arrange some time in the chat room to introduce myself formally to everyone and answer any questions. The selections will obviously start from the 1st of October but I’ll be around the site on Saturday, so I’ll post up some horses and ideas in the forum I guess.

Tomorrow is the last day of the free trial and I’m hoping to go out with a bang! I’ve already got a couple of selections and I’m away to look at more races now, so it could be a great day if I can find some winners.

I’ll use the blog this weekend to discuss the past month and things I’ve learnt as well as sharing my results. Depending on how tomorrow goes, it may be an interesting read…..

Not my month!

2008-09-24T20:05:00.001+01:00

Daily Loss £30.00

Well done to Andrew by the way. He was in The Weekender today and it was quite an interesting read. Also managed to mention me which was nice of him! :)

OK, I publicly begged for a change of luck this month a few days ago on here and it breaks my heart to say it hasn’t happened….

I’m fed up waffling on here regarding results so I’ll get to the point. Last night, I sent Andrew the note below:

Mate,

Looked hard tonight and came up with a few interesting races. The big handicaps at Redcar are impossible to solve, so looking at Goodwood.

In the 4.55, revolves around Greylami and good old Hawaana. I got sent a note from _____ tonight saying he fancied Greylami a fair bit and I can see why. I saw it two starts back and should have won. Slight question mark about the attitude but recent runs have been great off this mark, so a solid bet.

I’ve no idea if Hawaana will stay this far but they’ll hold it up out the back and it will need a good pace. Same comment applies to Grey though, as both come late.

This will depend on price tomorrow. At 10/1 plus 1 point on Greylami. At 16/1 plus, 0.5 points on Hawaana. I won’t do both though, so it’s either or.

5.30 is a good race for me and the winner will come from the William’s Well form line. Three on the line are William, Shimoni and Mustajed. If I’m being strict, Shimoni should come out best but market will overestimate its chance tomorrow. Paddy have priced up Shimoni at 12/1 and William’s at 25/1 which is wrong.

Even if Shimoni has a little in hand, they can’t have much between them, so William’s is obvious. Mustajed holds William also but Shimoni has this one beat but market may overprice this.

I’ll have a point each-way on William’s at 20/1 or bigger. If it’s shorter, I’ll look at other two again

If you can send me the first shows for both races, I’ll write the rationale off the top of my head as I know the races inside out.

Views?

G
The first thing Andrew said to me today is that we should set up a thread on the forum next month so us two can discuss my suggested bets (as we currently do in emails) and that way, everyone can follow my thought process from start to end. He then added, “you know what will happen now, you’ll select the wrong horses today for these two races!” I replied “Even I can’t be that unlucky mate….”

I’ve been careful to not use the ‘luck’ word much this month as I’ve said before, my ‘edge’ is so large at this game, luck won’t come into it. Even with horrendously bad luck, I can’t lose in the long-run in my opinion.

However, some of the errors I’ve made this month have beggared belief and today falls into that category. However, I’m fed up taking the blame for this, so I’m going to say it’s not my month! lol

For those that don’t know, my selection for the first race was Hawaana. Greylami was very well backed and won well. Amazingly, this was the only horse I discussed in emails last night and today with a few of you and shock horror, it wins.

At the moment, anyone who’s been writing to me daily must be doing better than anyone who’s following my selections. I’ve barely tipped a winner all month and yet, in other races and in races where I haven’t selected a horse, I’m on fire!

One point I’ve made clear on here is the fact that I really think people can benefit from being on the same forum as me or chatting in a chat room to me. I don’t really know how much this is worth in monetary terms but at the moment, it’s worth 10 times my selections…..

One point Andrew made after the races today is that I need to really spend more time writing out my race analysis. Only mentioning one horse in my email today for the first race was criminal and to a degree, he is correct. However, if I think a horse is only worth 0.5 points win at the price, I’m not going to put 10 reasons to back the other horse as people will wonder why I’m backing my selection!

I think Andrew’s suggestion this morning will work well next month. As you all know, Andrew is proof reading my analysis and helping out with my staking this month. From next month, I’m happy for this to take place in an open manner on the forum at the new site. Obviously, I don’t want others posting on the same thread as I’m not wanting 10 views on whether to tip a horse or not (lol), but at least it will give everyone a chance to see my thought process.

For example, in the second race today, Shimoni has won by 5 lengths. Today, William’s was twice the price of this and therefore, 100 times out of 100, William’s was the best bet. Interestingly, William and Mustajed finished side by side. So, Shimoni has improved out of all recognition to win this race. I hold my hands up and I say I didn’t know that. However, who did?

That’s me down 16 points for the month and it’s laughable to be honest. Not going to do much for next month but that’s no bad thing. Last thing I want is people to subscribe who think I’m any good. They might have high expectations then! :)

If I get the site finished tonight, I’ll post something up later about it…..

The Journey So Far....

2008-09-24T10:28:00.001+01:00

I’m conscious of the fact that a lot of readers haven’t been with me since Day 1 on here and therefore, before we move on to the next chapter of The Experiment, it feels like an ideal opportunity to look back on the last 8 months or so.

When I started out on this journey, I had 20 years experience of horse-racing form, 8 years of successful small time punting and 1 month experience of Betfair. My sole intention was to try to find a way that I can earn a second income from my horse-racing knowledge.

Before The Experiment started at the start of March, I used the weekends of February to try to learn to scalp on Betfair. I thought it would be a simple case of finding the most likely horse to win the race and backing that. Once the Betfair market caught on to the fact that this horse was overpriced and was the likely winner, everyone would back it and I’d be able to green up for a nice profit. If the only the world was as simple as that…..

My first ever ‘real’ trade on Betfair was on Rippling Ring which opened up at 15/8 against a Ferdy Murphy hotpot. I knew that the Nicholls horse was wrongly priced. Ten minutes later, I have my full £60 trading bank on Rippling Ring after it drifts to 5/1 and I then have to take a large guaranteed loss. The horse then wins on the bridle and I’m left scratching my head about why I managed to lose!

I’m sure many of you realised after that first day I’d never make it as a scalper and I’d have saved myself two months of hell if I had listened!

In March and April, I was off for 4 afternoons a week to trade and I barely managed to make any money at all in this time. My only real profits in this time were from trading golf and my limited knowledge of this game saved me from ‘going under’ in these two months of being part-time at work. I wisely decided to return to full-time employment at the start of May.

In the middle of April, I had started to analyse handicaps again and I joined The Handicap Forum to share my views on there. I thoroughly enjoyed my 6 weeks on there and it allowed me to develop a new trading strategy on Betfair ultimately. The amount of winners I selected in the 6 week spell was phenomenal and after agreeing to proof my tips for 2 weeks at the end, I made 60 points profit before I decided to return to trying to trade on Betfair.

My new strategy for Betfair involved using my knowledge to analyse races and then backing the horse I’d feel would win the race. I’d then look to lay off for a riskfree bet before the race and hope the horse would win. If a horse drifted pre-race, I’d look to lay off IR for a riskfree bet.

This strategy was then tweaked to green up IR and this was my ultimate strategy on Betfair and is where I got ended up with my trading ultimately. The months of May and June were exceptional months with regards to profits for someone using my stakes and the winners continued to flow regularly along with the profits.

Along came July and suddenly, the world seemed like a different place. I was slowly increasing my stakes throughout May and June and didn’t hit any issues. In July, I suddenly started selecting some very bad drifters on Betfair who continued to drift and drift and some of the losses I suffered were substantial for someone using my stakes.

In a few races, I ended up with my whole trading bank on large outsiders and I was forced to take large sums IR to bail me out. A few bad luck stories later and I had my first losing month of The Experiment. This led me to think long and hard about whether I could make it trading this way on Betfair or not.

Lots of readers then started to ask me about trying to help others make money by offering my race reading skills or trying to offer selections. After listening to the advice of readers and others who were writing to me, I decided I’d give tipping a try. A lot of people had picked up on the fact that I had no trading skills and the only reason I was winning on Betfair was due to the fact I could read races very well.

In August, I started to analyse races on the blog and give out some selections to get feedback on what I do. Similar to The Handicap Forum, the feedback was great and people seemed very impressed with what I can do. I also started to wind down my trading and started to gamble again. I hadn’t gambled during my time on The Handicap Forum (cost me a fair bit of money by not following my selections!) and I wasn’t sure how I would do.

The highlight of August was picking an 11/1 and 13/2 double on the same day in a tipster comp. After listening to more feedback on here, I decided I’d like to take the race analysis and tipping seriously and decided to showcase my talents by giving everyone a free month of race analysis and selections in September by email.

As we all know, this month hasn’t gone great for me but so far, I’ve had winners at 11/1,4/1,5/2 and 100/30 at SP. As I’ve made clear on here, this has been my worst month this year with regards to winners and I know I’ve picked the worse time of the year to have a bad month but that’s life!

However, as some of you keep telling me, I’ve had 2nds at 14/1, 14/1, 5/1 and 14/1 and 3rds at 15/2, 12/1, 7/1 and 25/1.

If I had a little more luck this month, one of the seconds would have won (River Falcon still hurts me!) and I would have been in profit for the whole month.

As this month has gone on, I’ve taken on board all of the feedback and I’m sure that I’ll learn from my errors this month and in the future, we can all look forward to consistent long-term profits.

So, I think that brings me up to date with where we are with The Experiment. I look forward to chatting to as many of you as possible across at the new site and whatever happens, I’ll continue to use the blog to document my progress.

The Final Countdown.......

2008-09-23T21:05:00.002+01:00

I decided against a selection today. I had a couple that were possible bets but the value wasn’t there in my opinion, so I was happy to pass. We did miss another winner (11/2) as a couple of you know but hey, that’s life!

I’ve already saw a couple for tomorrow I like, so expect a few selections tomorrow morning……

Firstly, I’ve decided that the free trial will stop on Friday. The purpose of this month was to show everyone what I can do and to gain some exposure. I don’t think an extra few days will make much difference and I’d rather spend some time across at the new site chatting to anyone who joins me there!

I’ve thought long and hard about the pricing structure for the new site and I don’t think many of you will be too disappointed. I won’t try to sell the site on here as it’s not what my blog is for but I’m hoping that my analysis and selections along with my honesty this month will sell itself!

If everything goes to plan, the site may be up and running tomorrow night. I’m putting the finishing touches to it and all I’m waiting for is Paypal getting back to me to confirm my new account. If I receive confirmation tomorrow, hopefully the appropriate links can be set up and after a few tests, we may be set to launch……

I don’t want to go on too long about the site but it is split into two parts. Without a log in, all you can see is the usual stuff along with an example of a race analysis. Once you are logged into the site, you see all of my analyses, post race reviews, chat room and forum and a few other things for subscribers.

As I’ve said before on here, the purpose of the site is to create a community where racing enthusiasts can discuss horse-racing. Obviously, you get all the analysis and selections from me like other ‘tipping’ sites but I want to create something that’s not matched anywhere else at the moment. As you know, my passion is horse-racing and finding winners and I’d love to be able to help some of you learn to do what I do. If you can pick up 10% of what I know, you’ll do well at this game and you won’t need me for very long!

In time, I want this site to become known as the place to discuss horse-racing and find winners. I’m not going to go chasing or advertising for people to come to the site and join. I want people to come looking for the site and to ask to be part of our community. Without some of you guys, none of this can happen though.

I’ve ‘met’ (emailed!) an amazing amount of people through my time on this blog and I don’t want that to end. Whatever happens, the blog will continue to function although I won’t be using it for race analysis or post race reviews. All of these will continue to be produced across at the new site.

I intend to use the blog to continue to document my daily profits and how the web site is going. Without the blog, I wouldn’t have had the ideas for any of this and I would never have got in contact with some of the people I write to now. Therefore, it’s important for me to continue to document my progress on here. I’m sure lots of you will be keen to see how this next chapter of The Experiment goes and you’ve been with me for 8 months now, so you can stay until the end!

If things go to plan, the website will be usable from tomorrow night. Like any new site, there will be various bugs around and things to fix but I’m hoping it’s not too bad. After that, the next part of The Experiment is out of my hands and it relies on your continued support…….

Please, Please, Please wake me up!

2008-09-22T20:13:00.000+01:00

Daily Loss £40.00

I feel like I’ve been in a nightmare for most of this month and I keep hoping I’ll wake up soon and see that I’ve picked a few more winners and made a few different decisions this month.

Well….guess what?

Look back to the 21st of August on here……(interesting...post)

Yip, Tony The Tap was one of my short-listed 4 today. Also, it doesn’t stop there. My first selection today which I was going to have 3 points win on was All In The Red in the seller which won at 5/4. Yip, another day, another fuck-up by me and if it wasn’t for the fact that I’m losing money and losing you guys money at the same time, I’d laugh about it.

As Andrew keeps telling me, anyone can make these mistakes and at least I’m doing it during a trial month but being honest, it is starting to get to me but I won’t let it. I feel like I owe you guys an explanation of why I didn’t select these today as it’s your money I’m wasting as well as mines.

I had a good bit of banter with Andrew concerning All In The Red. Basically, picking a 2/1 shot (it won at 5/4) in 16 runner seller appears to crazy but on my method, this horse was a near certainty today and all it had to do was run anywhere near the last run. It probably ran a little below this run but still won easy enough.

One thing I’m keen on doing next month if there is any demand for it is giving some help about how to unpick sellers and claimers. I find these races fairly easy to unpick but the horses are a low level and sometimes, I’m left scratching my head but if you have the time to analyse these races, it can be like taking candy off a baby.

I made a promise only last week that I wouldn’t select a short-price fav in a large field but that comment was really applied to handicaps. On my reading today, this horse was 5/4 in a 5 horse race and it was 10lbs clear of every horse in that hypothetical 5 horse race, so 5/4 was probably a steal. Hindsight is easy in this game but it was my view pre-race. Andrew talked me out of it and I know deep down he’s right (these horses are too inconsistent to take a short price about) but it still hurts after everything that’s happened this month.

Tony The Tap is more difficult to talk myself around and I feel like a fool. You have probably read my post-race review from the last run and thought, why the fuck didn’t he select that today?

Being honest, I decided that I’d only select two horses today maximum as I know people don’t want lots of selections and it doesn’t do my credibility much good to select 4 losers if that happened on a Monday of all days!

I had already decided that Digital was going to be a selection today and I also knew it was coming off the back of a very poor run. Therefore, I decided that I had to look for a more solid selection and I decided that at the available odds this morning (9/1), I’d pass on Tony The Tap.

Obviously, I regret the decision now but I’m not going to beat myself up too much. All it shows is that when I select a horse and it finishes last (applies to lots this month!), it’s usually because something was wrong with it and not because it was a bad selection!

My first ‘real’ selection today was Digital. As I made clear this morning, when it tried its best, it usually runs very well. I didn’t see the race but from the commentary, it was a never nearer 2nd at 14/1 after meeting trouble in running which doesn’t make me feel any better.

As everyone knows, I have had a shocking month this month and lots of mine have run nowhere near to form. However, off the top of my head and without checking my spreadsheet, I know I’ve had 3 seconds at 14/1 now and it just about sums up my month. Throw in another few placed horses I’ve had at big prices and for most tipsters, they’d be claiming a great month! lol

My other selection today was Star Strider and this was a well beaten 9th and clearly run nowhere near to form. Nothing new there this month but the horse has been placed 3 times off this mark in better races than this on the last 3 runs, so something was amiss today. Getting used to this now, so I won’t complain!

Overall though, another 2 point loss on the day. As you will have noticed, I’ve started to chill a bit and whatever will be will be. I can only do my best and whatever anyone thinks of me and this month, I’ve tried my best and can’t do much more…..

Away to spend time on the website now and get this up and running for later in the week for the grand opening!

Another error and another lesson....

2008-09-20T19:35:00.003+01:00

Daily Profit £28.00

I know people think I’m hard on myself at times but that’s just the way I am. I’ve made lots of errors this month as I’ve admitted and I made another one today.

I sent my analysis to Andrew last night and as usual, his comments were waiting for me when I logged on this morning. Andrew thought that Game Lad was easily my best bet of the day and thought it was a great find by me. However, he was surprised at my staking as he couldn’t understand why I’d gamble 2 points in a 27 runner handicap and only 1 point on Game Lad.

I said it was because River Falcon was a bigger price and I thought that was more value than Game Lad even though Game Lad was more likely to win. Andrew also thought that Let’s Roll and Malapropism didn’t offer much value as the whole world appeared to think they would return to form today, so I had no margin there.

This game is much easier with hindsight but Andrew was 100% spot on today. Why I only had 1 point win on Game Lad is beyond me but after seeing a horse hose up, you always wish you had more on. As I said to Andrew, my confidence has taken a real battering this month and it has affected my confidence in the way I read horses. I've had so many horses like Game Lad run poor this month, it's difficult to keep believing in them!

As I said in the email today, Game Lad had 3 wins from 7 runs on heavy and it really is a different horse on heavy ground. This season, it’s been useless but it’s never had the ground. Today, it had the ground and absolutely dotted up. For a few seconds, I thought it wasn’t going to get a run but the jockey knew he was on the best horse today, so he pulled it around to the outside and still won easily.

One interesting point this month is my 4 winners have all won very easily. I wish I could swap an easy winner for 2 short-head winners but it’s not as easy as that.

My other 3 ran poorly today although River Falcon did better than it seemed. It was on the wrong side of the track (4 of first 5 on other side!) and it finished 10th overall. It didn’t get a good run and it became very tight at a crucial stage on that side. This is 3lbs higher in future races now and we can score that off the list.

Let’s Roll ran a shocking race and I won’t be backing this again. The horse was beaten 20 lengths and it is clearly not the horse it was. It was the first one beaten and came home tailed off.

Someone commented a little while ago that they were surprised a so called ‘expert’ can pick horses who finish tailed off. This morning, I read a piece from Mark Winstanley saying he thought that Let’s Roll had been laid out all season for this race which was my view also pre-race. We were both wrong and he earns a fortune giving advice whereas my advice is free at the moment!

My last selection was Malapropism and this ran a strange race. It attempted to make all, hit a flat spot and then stayed on again to be 8th. I still think this may pop up this season but it needs its visor back on! If anyone from the stable is reading this, put the visor back on this please…….

Today is a good example of why other tipsters don’t use SP betting to track profits!

I gave out Game Lad at 6/1 this morning, it opened 5/1 on the course and was punted down to 10/3 before winning. Obviously, at SP I make a 0.5 points loss on the day but as you will have seen by my profit, I followed my own staking today and won £28, so no one could have possibly lost today I think unless you didn’t get on 5 mins before the off.

That’s me now -11.5 points on the month but being 100% honest, after the month I’ve had, this is starting to not sound too bad! lol

However, I need to get my head around the staking issue before next month as it’s no good giving out winners like today when I only have 1 point on winners and more on losers!

Thanks for the comments and feedback so far. I’m hoping the new website will be up and running fully later in the week if all goes to plan, so everyone can pop across and have a look and let me know what you think.

There are unlikely to be any selections tomorrow as the racing looks poor on the flat. The jumps season hasn’t started in earnest yet and I don’t want to get involved in that just yet.

Looking forward to next week now as I know I can still turn this month around. I've barely got anything right at all month and yet, I'm an 11/1 winner away from getting back to level.....that's my target now. I'm going to work even harder to find the winners I need!

Still slightly embarrassing.....

2008-09-19T21:44:00.002+01:00

Daily Profit £256.00

I think most people who read the blog and email me know me pretty well now and I’ll be 100% honest and say I take absolutely zero satisfaction from the fact that Sphinx won and I personally made enough to get in profit this month.

As the title states, I’ve embarrassed myself this month with the way that most horses have ran and picking a 5/2 winner doesn’t help the embarrassment to be honest. I said this to a couple of you today in emails but if Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure how I would have felt.

I’ve been doubting myself enough this month already and on my method of form reading, Sphinx was about as big a certainty as I can get. If Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure I would have believed it and I guess I would have maybe stopped the trial as I couldn’t go on selecting horses knowing that I had managed to get Sphinx beat.

As I’ve admitted on here, I have made a mess of the staking this month as I didn’t know how to value my horses as I’m not use to doing it. I said to one of you today, if I had a staking plan of 0-100, Sphinx was 100 and nothing had been past 10 this month on that scale. A few of you also wrote to ask me what I really thought of Sphinx and apart from saying it was a mortgage job, I tried to say it really should win easily.

I only had about £140 left in my Betfair account and I decided early today to have £100 on this. I ended up with odds of just below 4 after R4 and therefore, it was a nice profit for me. I lost £20 on my other one but it is a welcome win to be honest. If Sphinx had lost, I was £260 down on the month which would have meant I would have had to start playing with tiny stakes, so it’s a needed win that’s for sure!

I suggested a maximum 3 points at 7/2 but the SP was 5/2 so it’s a profit of 7.5 points from that bet at SP.

My other selection today was Burning Incense and I knew very early on from the commentary that it was well beaten. The low numbers dominated and add that to the list of things I have got wrong this month. From memory, I thought high was the place to be on heavy at Ayr but they had no chance today. I don’t think I’ve been the only caught one out by this today, so I won’t complain. 1 point loss from that bet.

On the day then, a profit of 6.5 points and it puts me 11 points down for the month. Clearly, this is still shit but if today had gone wrong, it would have been twice that, so I just need to hang on in there.

As usual, thanks for all the support and encouragement. I think half of my readers had their fingers crossed for Sphinx today. I’d personally like to thank Stan for his comment today as comments like that are like gold dust and it made my month. I had a chuckle to myself after Sphinx had won as Stan called me a Tipping God before he left for his holiday and on his first day back, I have a maximum bet winner!

I’m sure a few people are wishing they had taken a 2 week break and returned today…..lol

A few of you have kindly asked about next month and the business plan I referred to in an earlier post that I was going to be sharing. As you are probably aware, I’ve been working hard on the website when I haven’t been looking at form. I’ll try to issue an email about it this weekend if I get a chance but here’s a quick summary of my business plan for the subscription service:

My intention is to create a community on the website. I want to encourage people to start looking at form and get chatting with other form students about possible selections and winners. The website has a chat room and I’m hoping to include a forum also. My intention is to encourage subscribers to use the chat room as much as possible. I’ll be on hand as much as possible to talk about races and form etc.

The website will also contain all of my past analyses and race reviews. I’m also hoping to issue a weekly report which will have things like horses to follow (If you look back, you’ll see I said Sphinx would win wherever it ran next time!), an update on the week, any site updates, any general information etc.

As I said to you before, I want to create a website to match or beat any existing website that’s out there from other tipsters. I’m also keen on helping others learn to read form by discussing races with me and running any analysis past me. I’ll make some dedicated time in the chat room where I’ll be available to ask any questions regarding my methods or selections etc. As I’ve said before on here, I want to create a Rolls-Royce subscription service!

My intention isn’t to make substantial profits from running a tipster service. I want to help others win money either by following my analysis and selections or learning to do it themselves by me teaching them. However, for it to be worthwhile, I need to be able to cover any costs and cover my time for reading form as well as any time to help out others.

Even allowing for the fact that this month has been an absolute nightmare for me, I’m hoping that as many of my readers will follow me across to the website. I’ll ensure that you can sign up for a month at a time and therefore, the risk to anyone will be very small and you are not obliged to pay for any longer than you will want.

Here’s the smart bit…..

There are two places to position yourself in this market. You can go for the low-end of the market (£10-£50 a month) where you provide a selection and a small amount of analysis or you can go for the top-end of the market (£60-£200 a month) where you have the fancy website with the excellent analysis and selections. From research I’ve undertaken and from what I’ve been told, there isn’t much difference between the selections. The difference lies in the analysis, website and personal service that the better services supply their subscribers.

Clearly, I want to aim at the top end of the market in time and that’s where I think my analysis and selections will ultimately lie. However, if a start-up service started charging people £30 a month for a Rolls-Royce service, they wouldn’t buy it as they wouldn’t believe that someone could offer that service for such a low price.

The one advantage I have over a start-up tipster is the fact that my blog readers know what I can do and therefore, you don’t need to be suspicious regarding the pricing of the service. When I say I’m providing a Rolls-Royce service for a fraction of the price, you know I’m serious.

So, assuming that I get a high enough demand, I’d like to allow my current subscribers the opportunity to buy the service for a very cheap price. Assuming I get enough subscribers to cover my costs from my current subscription list, I’ll then ramp up the price for any newbies who want to join us at our site.

One thing I’ve found this month is that I don’t want people to come along next month if I do well (I’ll be on proofing sites) and think, wow, this guy is good and he’s really cheap. They then use me for cheap tips and back my selections with high stakes and moan when I hit a bad run. I can do without these types and if they can afford to play with big stakes, they can afford to pay top whack for quality analysis and selections.

So, that’s a quick overview. I know this is a little cheeky considering how bad this month has been but to help me with the pricing next month, it would be good to get an indication from people if they are interested in subscribing next month or not. I’d also appreciate any additional feedback (please use email) on my plans and whether you think I’m doing the right thing.

I’ve tried to incorporate as many things into the site as people suggested and I’m hoping that people may take a chance with me for a month at least to allow me to prove myself again since I haven’t done a great job this month!

I’m away to look at tomorrow’s racing now, so I’m hoping I’ve turned the corner!

Priceless.....

2008-09-18T20:06:00.003+01:00

Daily Loss £40.00

“Ancient Cross was well backed with the first-time blinkers on, but he was in trouble 2f out and is now fast running out of excuses.”

I’ve read some brilliant quotes in my time in horse-racing but the quote above really is priceless from the RP review. This was the horse that Andrew talked me out of today and if I was going to sum up this month, that quote does it all. lol

Today, I gave another 2 losing selections and I’m beginning to think a trained monkey could do better than me this month.

My first selection was Daring Dream and I’m not exactly sure what happened as the commentary I heard appeared to say it hit the front two furlongs out and then he didn’t mention it again! I then get in from work and see that it was well beaten by 16 lengths ffs, so either the commentator was winding me up or this horse has faded like it’s been shot in the final furlong.

Either way, it’s another well backed loser and other form students must be loving me this month. At the moment, most of mines are being backed (people clearly see the same as me!) but for some unknown reason, they are not seeing out their races. I have managed to get some really well backed and well handicapped horses beaten this month and this goes down as another one.

My other selection was Briannsta and it ran an OK race to be 3rd at 25/1. As luck would have it, I gave it out as a win bet as it was a bit speculative and it goes and gets placed. I could live with this if I was booting home 10/1 winners everyday but I couldn’t pick my nose at the moment, let alone pick a winner!

Here’s the quote from the Racing Post review for this one “Briannsta is extremely well handicapped on his form from a couple of seasons ago and this was a more promising effort. He could soon be of interest again.”

As I said this morning, the reason for backing it was because it was very well handicapped on what it did in 2006 after a mid season break. Unfortunately, as I keep on telling you, we only get one shot with these horses. It was 40/1 this morning in places and next time, assuming it ran in that race again, it would be 6/1. We won't be able to back it next time.

Overall, another disappointing day with a horse running well below form and another well handicapped horse getting beat. A 2 point loss to add to the monthly total and it’s beginning to look bleak!

After a fair bit of soul searching this week, I’ve decided I’m not going to let it worry me too much. I still believe that I’m not doing a lot wrong and I can’t believe the number I'm picking that are being backed heavily pre-race and not running to form.

Today, I was updating my spreadsheet with the results. Being honest, even I’m struggling to believe the results and I’ve picked the fuckers. The number that have run nowhere near to form is astounding and I can’t put my finger on why. I’ll keep plugging away though and I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before I hit some winners.

Thanks for all the recent comments. As I’ve said many times, it’s the comments that make this blog a good read and some of the recent comments have kept my confidence up.

I thought I’d mention the point that Knocker made. On The Handicap Forum in 2 weeks of proofing tips, I made just over 60 points profit. Obviously, I hit winners left, right and centre in that time and the analysis was first class also.

However, anyone who can make 60 points in 2 weeks can obviously lose a lot of points when the winners are not flying home and I’m finding that myself this month. One point I made earlier in the month is the fact that I’m only a few winners away from being a genius and 20 winners away from being useless.

At the moment, I’m obviously much nearer to being useless than a genius (lol) but all I need is a couple of winners. This will always be the case with me and maybe I should have made that clearer at the start of the month. I tried to give as much warnings as possible but maybe I should have spelt it out in large letters or something! It may have saved Mr anonymous a grand….

Away to look at tomorrow’s races now and I’m praying that I find a winner for us!

Reply to Anonymous Comment and Feedback

2008-09-16T21:34:00.001+01:00

Dear Anonymous,

I really appreciate your feedback. If I had read it before writing tonight’s previous post, I would have mentioned it in the post. However, I think it deserves a post of its own.

Firstly, I don’t use the Betfair forum and never will. I’ve made that clear many times over the past 9 months and I stand by that. However, I have heard about some comments on there and being honest, it makes me cringe. As you know though, a lot of nonsense is written on the forum everyday and some of the comments about me may fall into that category.

I’m keeping track of all the selections and you will be issued with a spreadsheet which details all of the selections and how they have run. I’ll try to update it for the past couple of days tomorrow and either post it on here or send it out to everyone.

One point I’ve made many times on the blog and in emails is that I am not a ‘tipster’ and in no way am I an expert. Not really sure where you have got this impression from but it wasn’t from me I hope. I’m an average guy who works 9-5 who studies horse-racing form in his spare time to make some extra money from gambling.

Before starting this month, I made it clear to everyone on the distribution list and the blog that I recommend they watch the selections this month and not back them. Clearly, I’m not silly enough to believe that people are not following my selections but the intention of this month was purely to give a flavour of what I do to find selections. I did not tell anyone to back my selections.

Another point I have made clear many times on here and in emails is the fact that my method is based purely on finding value selections and in the long-run, this is my edge. In any day, week or month, I am liable to lose. Not only am I liable to lose regularly, with an average SP of over 10/1, I am going to experience the sort of losing runs that would give people nightmares. This needs to be factored in to any long-term staking plan.

However, in the long-run e.g. over 12 months or even 8 years of my short gambling career, I expect to make a profit. I wouldn’t have acquired this interest in horse-racing at the age of 26 if I was as poor at reading form as it appears this month!

As you say, I’m “probably a nice guy”. I like to think so. Importantly, I’m also a fairly intelligent guy and I’m not silly enough to try to pass myself off as some sort of ‘expert’ on horse-racing when I’m clearly not. I have been straight down the line with everyone from when I started this blog and that hasn’t changed in the past month.

“you are not the man” – Not really sure who said I was to be honest but maybe you wanted to believe that I was the answer you had been looking for. Clearly, I am not.

I disagree with your comment about picking one form line. It’s true that I look for the strongest form line in some races but I don’t start out by looking for a form line to read. I read each horse independently and then I may look at a form line if I feel it is the strongest in the race and may help me select the winner.

As you say, some of my horses have run appallingly bad this month. I have been honest about every horse on the blog and haven’t tried to cover this fact up. However, backing at average odds of 10/1 means that not every horse is going to run to form. If they did, I wouldn’t be writing a blog for a start!

If someone had pointed me towards my blog after hearing about ‘how good’ I was, surely it would have made sense to paper trial the selections for the remainder of the month since the selections were free. I would never have leaped in with both feet first and I feel bad for you that you have lost. However, I don’t feel I am to blame.

I don’t think you were necessarily wrong for following my selections. However, why you would bet so much on my selections when I’m not even betting much on them myself is slightly confusing for me. As I’ve said at the start of the month, I really didn’t know how good or bad I would do this month. I still don’t know that to be honest.

Thanks for wishing me luck. I can do with some! I also wish you luck in the future and I would be very wary of following someone who isn’t ‘an expert’ in the future on the back of a recommendation on the Betfair Forum.

Graeme

Start Sharpening The Knives......

2008-09-16T20:59:00.000+01:00

Daily Loss £120.00

Being honest, these blog posts are getting more difficult to write every night and if I was under pressure earlier in the month, I’m buried under it now! lol

I’m running out of words to express my disappointment every night and I’m even struggling to know what to write tonight. I gave out two maximum selections today and I think it’s reaching the stage that if I gave out Dancing Brave in a 0-85 handicap, I’d get the fucker beat by tipping it to win.

My first selection today was Poppy Day. I’m not going to go through a million reasons why this should have run well today but the truth of the matter is that it was beaten over 20 lengths and if it was a 3m chase, that would be respectable but it was a bloody flat race! On its previous career runs, it has never been beaten nearly as far as this and some of these were over a sprit distance when it had no chance and on its debut when it was 200/1.

The horse has clearly run nowhere near to form and all I can think is that something was amiss with it. It finished out the back with lots of horses who didn’t handle the ground but we know Poppy would have handled the ground as it has handled it on every other start of its life, so I really don’t have an explanation.

Someone sent me a note saying it got a poor ride and Andrew suggested its run was unsatisfactory (my tips are bloody unsatisfactory!) but I don’t know what happened. I seem to be saying this every day this month but yet another horse has run nowhere near to form when I’ve selected it. All I can say is that the horse is clearly much better than it showed here but it’s difficult to back it next time with any confidence after that run.

Being honest, this post is just going to get even more depressing as for the second time in two days, I’ve managed to foil a large gamble on a horse by tipping it in the morning! Yesterday, Fever was backed from 14/1 to 5/1 and ran appallingly.

Today, Overrule was strong all day and the world wanted to back this today. When I saw it priced up this morning at 8/1, I was slightly disappointed but the bookies aren’t daft when it comes to these sorts of horses. However, even at 8/1, it was a maximum bet and it was backed all the way down to 5/1 at the off and was remarkably strong.

I only heard the commentary but it appeared that it wasn’t given the best of rides as the winner had already flown by the time Overrule made his move. Andrew confirmed it straight after the race by saying that the jockey waited too long but I can’t comment to be honest. Either way, the horse finished over 2 lengths clear of the remainder in second and if you take away the winner, it won easily but unfortunately, I can’t!

The problem with a horse like this is that you only get one shot at it. Next time, this will be favourite and can’t be backed. It should win but I won’t be backing it. Today was the day to back it and we were all on at a decent price. I don’t quite understand why it traded just over 2 if it was well beaten but it just about sums up my month from hell.

I got in from work tonight and I expected a barrage of abuse in emails. Being honest, anyone who writes on a blog that he has found two amazing bets and both lose, deserves to take a bit of stick. However, when I checked my emails, I had two supportive emails saying to just keep what I’m doing and the profits will roll in!

Being honest, it amazed me to be honest and I’m slightly embarrassed by it. I’ve decided to give a free trial of tips in a month when I’ve barely managed to select a horse that’s run well let alone a winner. How people can see past this is beyond me and it only makes me more determined to work harder in the remainder of the month.

Andrew questioned my staking today and I said I’d quickly mention it on here. Being honest, selecting two 3 point bets in one day smacks of desperation slightly but it definitely wasn’t. One thing I made clear at the start of the month is that I didn’t know how my staking plan would work. I have never used a 3 point staking system and I didn’t know when a 3 point bet would come along. So far this month, I’ve give four 3 point bets and all four have lost now!!!!!

Andrew made a good point about Fort Churchill and I know this myself. This should have been a 2 point bet and so should my other winner. However, by only putting 1 point win on them, it’s actually helped create the poor position I’m in now.

As I said to Andrew, I pick different types of horses and as the month has gone on, I’ve started to learn about the way I should stake them. When I find horses that have the correct profile, correct form and correct odds, these need to be 3 point bets.

Today, both of these horses had all of the above and therefore, they were definitely 3 point bets. Fever also had all of the attributes yesterday and so did my other 3 point bet.

My error this month (one of many!) has been staking too many points on speculative horses. So far, none of these have won and it’s cost me a lot of points and is costing everyone a lot of money. However, the majority of these have been value bets and therefore, if I continue with the current strategy, in the long-run, everything will all be rosy!

Later this month, I’ll try to define a little scale that I will use to judge stakes next month. The number of ticks that the horse meets will define the staking. This is basically what I do now but I compute it all in my head and I can do with sharing the thoughts with everyone.

I should probably end by saying that I’m now down 15.5 points on the month. Not only that, I’m now in danger of having my second losing month of The Experiment.

The only way I know to improve the situation is to continue analysing races as I currently do and hope that I start to select some winners again. I know my method works and in the long-term, I don’t see an issue but as I said at the start of the month, I want to be judged on this month’s analysis and selections. Time is still on my side though, so I’ll keep grinding away and looking for some winners.

The month from hell continues…….

In a better mood.........

2008-09-15T20:38:00.002+01:00

Daily Loss £40.00

Before I start tonight’s post, I’m in a slightly better mood due to the fact that two of the best bets of the whole flat turf season run on the same day tomorrow. It’s as if it’s written in the stars that I pick two 20/1 winners tomorrow but we’ll see……

Being honest, today will go down as my worst day this month as I’ve managed to haemorrhage us another 5 points. If Saturday was a nightmare losing 3.5 points, then today must really be bad! I’ve lost 8.5 points in two days and I’m staring a nightmare month in the face to be honest.

Unlike Saturday, I didn’t do a lot wrong today. I’m starting to feel like I should put a disclaimer on every email saying “This selection assumes that the horse will run to form, if it doesn’t run to form, it won’t win.”

Today, I analysed a form line in the 4.50 race. It involved horse A, horse B and horse C. Last time, A beat B by 1 length and B beat C by1 length. B had the worst draw and was slightly unlucky in running. C had a nightmare passage in the race. A had the best draw, got the rails run and got all the splits.

Subsequently, B has run a blinder in a much better race and performed about 4lbs above his rating. Today, they all met off the same mark as before. Who should win today?

I plumped for horses B and C to gain revenge on A and due to the fact that B has since run 4lbs above his rating, all he had to do was repeat that run and he would win today. B was the selection.

As it turns out, A wins the race at 11/2, C runs a great race and trades at 1.5 IR and B finishes a never nearer 5th and is well beaten by the other two.

Annoyingly, B has run nowhere near the last run and has performed about 6lbs below the last run and clearly, hasn’t even run to the same form as the previous race.

What chance have I got? Yet another selection runs poorly for me……

All day, I’ve been thinking about the fact I put up that horse up as a selection. One point I’ve made clear on here before is that I honestly can’t judge the value regarding these horses. I’ll be honest with everyone and this may annoy a few of you but I didn’t back that today. I can’t bring myself to back a horse in a 14 runner race at 2/1.

However, the reason I gave it as a selection is purely down to the fact it should have won if it ran to form. Therefore, if we ran that race 10 times and that horse ran to form, it would have won 8 times I guess, so 4/5 was maybe the correct price. As today showed though, and as I know myself, horses are not machines.

I’m not sure if people will agree with this but I’ve made a decision that I’ll never select a short-priced favourite as a selection when I’m giving selections. I can’t really define ‘short’ as it depends on the race but I won’t ever select a 2/1 chance in a 14 runner race again that’s for sure. This won’t please everyone but its how I feel.

Overall, another nightmare race and 2 points lost for me.

My second selection just about sums up my month if I’m honest. I issued the email today at 9.45am as soon as I saw that a couple of bookmakers had priced up Fever at 14/1 in the 5.20 race. I said this to a few of you in emails today but I had a feeling that it would start around 9/2 (it started at 5/1).

As I suggested this morning, this was an attempt at a stable coup by Mick Easterby and I’ve witnessed lots of these across the years. His strike rate is usually about 50% for these types when they are punted. Today, this has finished a well beaten 8th and apart from holding my hands up, what else can I say.

I said this morning that I couldn’t guarantee the horse would win or run well but I knew that the bookmakers had made a boob by pricing it up as a 14/1 chance. It was no 14/1 chance!

In my opinion, this horse was the best bet this month at 14/1. The fact it ran shit shouldn’t come into it to be honest as I can’t be held responsible for the fact that horses are not running to form. If this ran to the mark that it is capable of, it would have won today and Mick will know this also.

Overall, a 3 point loss which really is a killer to be honest and I hope some of you traded in the early price on Betfair to reduce the risk and increase the odds. I lost £40 on the race which was £30 on the place market and £10 on the win market as I traded in £20 at 6.8 having backed at 13.5.

I don’t feel too bad tonight as in the first race, I narrowed it down to 3, got the right form line and my selection ran below form. If it had run to form, it would have won. In the second race, I spotted the sort of thing that very few people in this game can spot but annoyingly, for about the umpteenth time this month, my horse has run well below expectations.

I will have 2 selections tomorrow and both will be maximum bets. To have 2 maximum bets in one day is a first for me and being honest, both of these may be the best bets of the whole season (assuming they win which means they overtake my previous best bets this season!)

Both are also likely to be massive punts if I’m right, so expect an early email once I see the first show tomorrow. The Sporting Life has priced them up at 14/1 and 20/1. The Racing Post has them priced up at 10/1 and 20/1.

My only decision is whether we go for win bets or each-way bets but I’ll be dictated by the odds. The ironic thing about tomorrow is the fact that I thought I’d have to wait a long time to back these two and they both appear on the same day which amazes me! The fact that I'm 9 points down on the month means I'm glad they are running!

Maybe it’s a sign that my luck is about to change………..

Great Graeme....

2008-09-13T21:47:00.004+01:00

Daily Loss £46.25

When I logged off MSN tonight at 5.50pm, Andrew said to me “whatever you do, don’t give yourself too hard a time on the blog. People will understand and anyone could have made these errors. At least you got yourself in that position. Remember next month as people are starting to get pissed off with your drive and determination to succeed and they aren’t even paying for the tips yet.”

Well, I’m going to go against Andrew’s advice and write about the way I’m feeling. I’ve always been honest on here and it’s partly why I keep the blog.
So, cover your ears now….

I’m a fuc*ing muppet. I really am. An absolute fuc*ing idiot. I made some absolutely massive errors today and I felt physically sick after a couple of races today, so I’m not too happy tonight. I deliberately didn’t write this post earlier tonight as I was in danger of going over the top!

Below is the email I wrote to Andrew last night at 11.37pm:

Right mate,

Analysis will be done tomorrow morning once I see the odds of these but at the moment....

2.20 Good - Salient (backed it last time to make all but faded tamely as couldn't get easy lead, may get easy lead tomorrow), Eisteddfod (first time it has had optimal conditions all season and easiest race for a good few years) Swaying towards Eisteddfod but if Salient is 20/1+, I'd go for that tbh.
3.55 Good - I know you'll fancy this one too but William's Way is obvious. I'd have this as 10/1 and it should be 16/1+ tomorrow, so easy each-way bet. Will come late as it will sit in last place I guess and needs luck but it should run well.
5.05 Good - Our Piccadilly is head and shoulders above this lot and will win if it repeats last run. Worried about price though and I'll probably pass if it's priced up as favourite.
5.40 Good - Kinsya (probably my best bet - I can't see anything else that goes on the ground and is as well handicapped and I'll back each-way - 1 danger would be fav but I'd lay this as won't like ground)
4.40 Chester - I really fancy Green Park here but it's drawn in 9 which will stop it I guess. It's the best horse though but not always the case the best wins at Chester. Thunder Bay (well handicpped and not had best of luck last twice), would maybe be the call with issues with lots in here IMO and none look solid due to trip/ground/draw apart from this one. Draw fucked it for Green Park which is really annoying.
5.15 C - Oakfranca seems to be improving and should win but price worries me. Wouldn't back it if its too short.
2.05 Donc - River Falcon (been waiting for weeks to back this now and missed a good few meetings abandoned. Last twice, caught my eye and a pretty fresh horse now. 7th last year and a good bit lower now. We all know the way it runs but if it gets breaks and they come back to him, can win today) Will finish late and nail them on the line. :)
3.45 - I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob's Surprise. I'll probably plump for Bob's as it should be a good price and on a form line, holds other one. Arabian won it last year and should show it's best form this season but could be too short I guess.
4.15 - Not got a clue here mate and I'll pass. Looks tricky and too many improvers IMO.
5.25- Must be getting tired as I couldn't find anything here. The Snatcher stood out but too far out the handicap, so I can't back it.
I'll be up early and I'll do analysis for each one. Fancy River Falcon for 1 point each-way and maybe Kinsya for 1 point each-way but apart from that, all have to be 1 point bets I guess. Bit of a bumper day if I get the prices I want but similar to most services on a Saturday, so not too worried.

Tomorrow....

G

After seeing the prices this morning, I decided on 6 bets and gambled 8 points in total.

Here’s my view on each one (with a look back at my email last night to A):

2.20 Good – I plumped for Eisteddfod here as I thought it may return to form. I had 1 point win and to be honest, it ran poorly. It travelled OK but later events showed that it had no chance on the ground where it races as they started coming across to the other rail after this race. I wouldn’t discount this from running better but it disappointed me.

The reason I didn’t select Salient today was that I thought that 14/1 wasn’t great when I looked this morning and my other one was a more solid bet. Salient went off at 20/1 and traded 1.4 IR before just getting caught on the line. I was so relieved it lost to be honest but things get worse later…..

3.55 Good – Williams Way was held up in stone last and being honest, it never had a chance. I backed at 75 after 4f and it was a hopeless task. It finished a never nearer 8th and isn’t one to write off but they have to give it a chance. I joked last night they’d hold it up last and I was right! No complains here and another 1 point lost.

5.05 Good – My first big error (but about my 5th on the day as it happened). I had selected Our Picadilly here and being honest, it was so obvious for my method, it was embarrassing. However, in my wisdom this morning, I thought 7/2 was too short and I’d pass on the one. Absolutely pisses up on the bridle at 3/1. Great Graeme! No points lost though….

5.40 Good – Probably my best bet of the day. My decision this morning was how to stake this. I went for 2 points win and that really was the final straw for the day. Finished 3rd at 8/1 and was given an absolutely shocking ride IMO. It was always travelling as well as the winner but on the outside, the jockey managed to find a bit of trouble which gave the winner first run. Kinsya was full of running at the end and would have been second in another 100 yards.

As usual, another horse returns to form when I select it but 2 points lost. I’m really annoyed I didn’t say each-way as I said each-way last night. Great Graeme. 2 points lost.

4.40 Chester – The race where I felt really sick. Green Park was such an obvious horse here as it returned to form last time and was nailed on to run well. I had a huge issue with the draw and this morning, Andrew said I shouldn’t be afraid of the draw as it finishes late and may get up in time. I should have listened but no, I go for 1 point on Thunder Bay which ran a crappy race as it had the rail the whole way but wasn’t good enough.

Missing a 9/1 winner when I really fancy a horse hurts to be honest and I still can’t believe I didn’t back it. 1 point loss. Great Graeme.

5.15 Chester – I felt sick after this race but by this time, I knew it was going to win before the race and I backed it. I discounted Oakfranca this morning as it looked too short IMO and I was banging my desk when it hosed up by 8 lengths. What a fuc*ing numpty I am. Seriously. A 4/1 winner passes me by again due to the fact I won’t back short priced horses. It’s becoming a bit of a joke to be honest. Great Graeme.

2.05 Doncaster – The only race that pleased me today and I managed to win a few quid on River Falcon here as I laid off in the photo. I only kept £50 profit on the field and the rest on this as I thought it had won tbh but I even got that wrong. I backed it at 20 on Betfair and it traded at 1.6 or so, so traders would have been happy. Great Graeme.

I had 1 point each-way on it, so it’s a profit of 2.5 points.

3.45 Doncaster – Another cock-up here as I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob’s Surprise. I plumped for Bob’s Surprise as it was too high a price and I stand by this decision. I’d take that every time at the odds. As it turned out, it was the first horse beat and it ran a stinker (not for the first time I’ve selected one of these recently!)

Obviously, it didn’t make me feel any better that Arabian Gleam won. I remember thing at that point in the day it could be a bad day today. Subsequent events showed that’s the biggest understatement on this whole blog! Great Graeme.

4.15 and 5.25 races I had no idea and don’t even care about the results at the moment.

By my reckoning, that’s a loss of 3.5 points on the day and this is getting ridiculous now. I know I can’t always get these decisions right about which horse to back but today was an embarrassment for me to be honest and Andrew could only laugh as the day went on. I still haven’t laughed yet to be honest and I’m fuming at myself.

Selecting the wrong horse in a race will always happen to me from time to time and I’ve proved that a lot on here recently. Not selecting two horses that piss up at 3/1 and 4/1 because they are too short is like a kick in the stomach to be honest and I’m so annoyed with myself. Really annoyed………..

I spent time working on my website design today between races but if I have any more days like today, I doubt I can even go ahead with next month. I need to get my finger out and start selecting the right horse to tip and stop missing out on winners as it’s really getting to me.

I know this is maybe dreaming slightly but given that email last night, I could have had winners at 3/1,4/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 2nds at 14/1 and 20/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 from 8 selections.

Instead I ended up with a 2nd at 14/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 and 4 losers who ran shit. Great Graeme!

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s races and I don’t think I see any selections, so we’ll pass I think. I’ll issue the note tomorrow morning in case I dream up a selection.

What's going on?

2008-09-12T19:30:00.001+01:00

Daily Loss £50.00

Going to keep this post really short as there seems plenty of races tomorrow for me to try to unpick and my time is better spent looking at them.

Today was a really strange day and at the moment, I’m scratching my head a fair amount as I’m not understanding some of the results. I’ve mentioned this to a few of you but I always check the results every day for the previous day’s handicaps to check that I could have selected the winner and to find any potential form lines worth watching. History has shown me that I’ll be able to read 3 in 4 races right but at the moment, I’m struggling.

I said this to Andrew twice today which is amazing but the first horse I ruled out in two of my races won today. Not only did I rule them out, I gave them absolutely no chance!

My first selection was Corridor Creeper and for about the 5th or 6th time this month, one of mines has run very poor. If I was training these tips, I’d be closing my stable down for a few weeks on suspicion of something being wrong as some are running so far below form, it’s unreal.

This finished a well beaten second last and for a horse who likes to lead, it didn’t show any sparkle from what I heard on the commentary. I had this down as a great bet as all it had to do was repeat the last run but clearly, it’s not run within a stone of this run which is frustrating.

The winner was Blessed Place at 33/1 and by my calculation, this has produced a lifetime best at the age of 8 by quite a fair way as it was out of the handicap! Seriously, if you gave me 12 picks in that race, I wouldn’t have gone for this one. 33/1 wasn’t even a good price pre-race!

My second selection was Midnight Muse and it was a huge drifter on Betfair and pre-race. It started at 16/1 which was a huge price and it ran OK to finish 4th. It tried to make all I think and it got swallowed up close home. Again, this is disappointing and the horse continues to frustrate me somewhat. It’s now scratched from the list until it shows more.

The winner had been 12th of 13, 14th of 14 and 14th of 16 and beaten more than 14 lengths every time on its last 3 starts. My pre-race comment last night against the winner was “you’re having a laugh”. Well, the joke was on me I’m afraid and it won at 28/1…..

The third selection was Hawaana and unlike the other two, this proved fairly strong pre-race and I wasn’t the only person who thought it would run well. It ran an OK race to be 4th at 8/1 but it disapointed me to be honest. The winner was easier to select than the other two winners and it wasn’t ruled out at the first stage but it just didn’t look well handicapped today. I heard it won very cosily and it has produced a lifetime best also to win at 15/2.

Overall, a bit of a nightmare day and it’s proving a difficult month. I can’t believe I read Corridor Creeper wrong today to be honest and the fact that Cape Royal ran really well suggests to me that the trainer will be scratching his head also at the run.

Today is probably a good example of why I don’t bet each way as it was another two 4ths to add to the results and I’ve had more 4ths than anything else this month! (excluding horses who run below par and finish second last!)

One thing I made clear at the start of the month is that I’d like to compare myself to other tipsters and how they do to judge how I’m doing this month. Obviously, some of the readers will know far better than me but if I do find that people are finding these winners and I’m not, I’ll need to go back to the drawing board and understand what I’m doing wrong!

On a similar point, I got a nice email today from someone saying that Spotlight from the Racing Post (who I think is a really great form analyst) has only selected the winner of one of my 14 races this month before today and is -11 points for the month. This made me smile again and maybe I need to start selecting the right races to unpick as at the moment, no one is unpicking these races very well including me!

(I see Bollin Felix was second in a big handicap today. I can see why I read the form line wrong with Sphinx on Sunday now and therefore, Sphinx must rate a near certainty over 1m 6f when it runs next time if it runs to the same form again!)

A bit of a wry smile.....

2008-09-11T20:48:00.001+01:00

Daily Profit £58.00

I’m writing this post at 8pm tonight and after seeing the result of the 6.50 race tonight, I have a bit of wry smile.

Right, this could get a little confusing, but I’ll try to explain. My expertise is analysing races and selecting horses who are out of form but who I feel will be coming back to form soon. These are always the horses I look for and I’ve said that many times on here and anyone who has been following my analysis can probably see what I do.

Lately, I’ve been apparently reading lots of horses wrong and it’s been a little confusing and disheartening for me if I’m honest. I’m not a very confident person and it doesn’t take much for me to start to doubt myself and what I know. I’ve been scratching my head a fair amount over the past month as I appear to have been reading some horses badly wrong.

After seeing the 6.50 result, and the fact that Piccolo Diamante won at 16/1, I really don’t know why I ever listen to any of the doubters (including me!). If you look back at the 17th of August, you’ll see I put this up as a potential dark horse and annoyingly, it finished tailed off (not the first time I’ve selected a tailed off horse lately!). Next run, it pops up at 16/1.

This afternoon, I saw that Gift Horse was 2nd at 12/1. Look at the 22nd of August post when it ran poorly.

I’ve had Wadnagin last night, Franksalot and a few others recently who have been well below par when I selected it and then next run, shock horror, it pops up a massive price and shows its true form.

I’ve taken lots of unfair and unnecessary stick on this blog for picking horses like this recently and when I saw that horse won tonight, it made me smile…..

In case you’re wondering, I did notice Piccolo and Gift Horse last night but when you are on a losing run of 9, picking two horses that you selected last time and both running poorly and letting you down, doesn’t really appeal to me as a possible selection. If I had been doing well this month, I would have probably gone for both of these and taken a chance but now is the time for solid selections to get me back on track. We can save these 16/1 winners for next month!

OK, I selected two horses today. Before I mention the first one, I talked about a great form line between this horse and Space Pirate which ran in the earlier race. I was shocked to see Space Pirate not finish in the first 3 home but I was actually very pleased when I saw that it finished tailed off stone last! Clearly, something was amiss today with it, so the form line became meaningless.

In the 5.00, my selection was Croeso Crusan. It was 13/2 this morning and it opened 6/1 on course but was backed down to 4/1 favourite (very short IMO). However, as I suggested this morning, this horse is improving fast and it absolutely hosed up I believe. The SP isn’t great and I’m unlikely to ever tip many 4/1 winners but when you need a winner, they are all welcome.

As a quick aside, a few people have been trying their hand at analysing races using my sort of systematic approach. Today, 3 people sent me an analysis for this race and they all selected the same horse at odds of 10/1. Last night, I narrowed the race down to 2 runners as I told them all and they had all selected my other horse.

It gave me great satisfaction that the horse finished second and as I said to one, I actually backed both today due to the fact that 3 people independently backed up my view that it was a good bet. One of the three was actually showing off and selected the first 3 home today! I think he backed them all to win and place, so he would have had a great return on the race. Well done mate.

Without trying to plug next month too much, one thing I’m really keen on is sharing views with people and subscribers sharing views with each other. I’m making sure that a chat room will be on my website and I think it could prove to be a great tool for everyone next month. Sorry, no more plugs I promise!

My second selection was in the 5.30 and I plumped for Caustic Wit. I read the race not too badly I believe as I narrowed it down to the two Malcolm Saunders’ horses. The other one won at 11/4 which is a shame but mines ran a poor race to be honest.

My rationale for selecting it was based on the fact it was well handicapped, ran an OK race last time when badly drawn, last time was its first run for 2 months and it should have improved from it and lastly but most importantly, it was Mickey Fenton’s only ride today.

I don’t want to talk about the jockey thing too much as some people can place too much emphasis on this sort of thing but I strongly believe that a jockey is not going to ride in the last race at a track for his only ride of the day unless he has been told it has a chance. Clearly, whoever told him that was talking nonsense (lol) but I don’t regret the decision to back it. I regret not backing the other one as well to be honest but I’m not perfect!

After the trials and tribulations of this month, I’m actually in 2 points profit again. I know not everyone will be appreciating the fact that my selections that have run poor have subsequently run well next time but it’s this sort of thing that gives me great confidence if I’m honest. Despite having had a nightmare month and very little going right for me, I’m in profit for the time being at least.

Away to look at tomorrow’s race cards now, so hoping to find us a selection or two!

Let's clear this up......

2008-09-10T21:49:00.002+01:00

No selection today for me. I did quickly mention the 6.20 at Kempton this morning and the mystery horse was Wadnagin. It was 3rd at 6/1 having been backed from 10/1 on course and 12/1 this morning.

I spoke about the horse on the 17th of August on here and I thought it was a great bet to return to form then. It finished tailed off after being well backed and I was left scratching my head. 3 weeks later, it returns to form and it would have won tonight if it had a better draw than the car park draw! Sums up my month thus far….(glad it lost though since I didn’t select it!)

A quick point on the monthly P&L for the tips. I was looking through my results today and I see I had Fort Churchill in my spreadsheet at 10/1 and not 11/1, so I’ve done myself out of a point. So I’m now -1 on the month and not -2. Managed to make a point profit today without having a bet, so it’s cheered me up! (if anyone else is tracking the profit to SP, can they confirm I’m correct please).

OK, I was a bit down this morning when I wrote the email and I think I need to clear a few things up regarding trading v gambling. The anonymous knob who has been writing on the blog actually raised a good question in a comment on the last post - not you Anthony :) – so I’ll give an answer tonight as I promised.

He asked whether I’m running a tipping service or a trading service i.e. horses to back to lay. As I’ve made clear on here many times now, my forte is analysing form and reading races. That’s what I’m best at. No one has said I’m any good at tipping and even I can’t answer that. I have no historical records (apart from a 2 week spell on The Handicap Forum) and I really can’t say whether I’m going to be any good as a tipster.

However, what I can say is that I’ll work hard to analyse races and try to select the winner. This month, I’ve had 1 winner at 11/1 from 12 selections. I’m on a losing run of 9 at the moment but the average odds are 11/1 of these losers, so a run of 9 losers isn’t a disaster.

The only reason that the traders are doing very well this month is simply because my horses have been travelling well and running well. I’ve had a few horses run way below form but apart from these, most horses have run solid races and I’ve had a 2nd at 14/1, 3rd at 12/1 and 3rd at 15/2 and these all traded very low in running which helps the traders. I have even had a horse that was freely available at 65 on Betfair (33/1) that traded at 4 in running, so it’s easy to see why traders are doing well.

However, the main purpose of my service is going to be race analysis and giving out selections to win. I am not advocating that people trade my horses in running and therefore, I hope this clears things up a little.

In the long-run, once the winners start to flow, the traders will be limiting their profits greatly by trading IR and the gamblers should do much better and earn a much better return. When I select a 33/1 chance, it’s not because I thought it could run well and trade lower. I selected that horse as I thought it was maybe well handicapped and would run much better than the market thinks (I was right).

I’ve really struggled with the whole tipster thing this month as some of you know and people losing money on my selections doesn’t sit easy with me at all. A few of you have suggested that I’m maybe just too nice for this game and maybe you are right. However, I made it clear at the outset that this is a trial month and I didn’t make any promises about how good I would do, so I shouldn’t worry so much about how people are doing.

In the long-run, I still don’t have any doubt that I’ll make a decent return for people but it’s not my money I’m risking, so I will let other people decide if they want to take this risk……

I made the decision today that I’m going to go ahead with next month regardless of what happens this month. I had to make a decision and I couldn’t wait to see how much profit or loss I made this month before deciding to give professional tipping a try. Work has started on a website and I have a name for the site but I’ll keep it private at the moment until the website is developed.

Lastly, a few readers have sent me some examples of the analysis that other tipping services provide. My initial reaction was one of shock and I couldn’t believe that anyone would buy that rubbish. Obviously, analysis isn’t the thing that matters and it’s picking winners that matter. At the moment, these sites are probably better than me at that but in time, I’m sure I can match them or beat them. Once I do start picking winners and combining it with my analysis, maybe I can have the best tipping service out there in 12 months time……

Thanks for the continued support and I hope I can repay the faith that so many of you are showing in me at the moment. I’ll be trying my best whatever happens!

Annoying Day!

2008-09-09T18:32:00.002+01:00

Daily Profit £3.04

I’m not too disappointed with the analysis today if I’m being 100% honest and on a different day, it could have been a different story but I’m posting a 6 point loss today to SP which is a nightmare!

I was off work this afternoon, so I managed to watch all of the races live for once. I was covering my eyes at times though, so I would have been better off at work!

I was up late last night doing the form analysis and I looked at 6 races in detail. As it turned out (I didn’t know this morning), in all 3 of the other races, my selection was a non-runner. Therefore, the only thing I got right was choosing which 3 selections to tip!

However, going by the results, I wish all of them were non-runners!

OK, in the 2.00 at Beverly, I couldn’t separate Morristown Music and Mormeatic. I suggested 1 point win on both at double figure odds.

My issue at Beverly is always the draw. On firm, you want a high number and on heavy, the best ground could be anywhere. As it turned out, the near rail (right as you look) was like a swimming pool and any horse which tried to come up there in the first race had no chance.

Mormeatic shot out the gates and booked that position! Amazingly, it traded less than 4 which is making me chuckle as BF traders are doing well at the moment and I’m doing sh*t which is highly ironic giving my ideas on BF trading in the past and how I think I can make money by backing and trading IR!

The other horse I tipped was drawn in the right place but he ended up finishing a never nearer 3rd at 12/1. His form figures coming into the race were 11th of 13, 9th of 12, 13th of 16, 11th of 14 and 15th of 16 last time beaten 31 lengths!

However, I guessed he’d show much improved form today and I was right. However, it’s not much good for us as he now has a never nearer 3rd next to his name and everyone knows he’s in form. You only get one shot at these sorts of horses and we had ours today…..

I ruled out the first two horses home and being honest, I’d do so again. I said the winner wasn’t badly handicapped and I also said it wasn’t that well handicapped either. I ruled it out purely on the fact it had run twice on soft ground and finished 6th of 6 and 8th of 14. Obviously, it actually needed softer ground and not firmer ground and it showed much improved form today.

My issue with the second was the simple fact it had been beaten 6 times in the last 9 runs off this mark. It has been placed a few times off this mark and I wasn’t surprised to see it finish second. Overall, I’m always happy to take horses on at 4/1 fav who have been beaten lots of times recently off the same mark. Why should it suddenly improve to win?

Overall, not a great race I’m afraid and I read it wrong quite badly by missing out the winner at the earliest stage of my analysis. On heavy ground, you’re forced to look for soft ground horses and this wasn’t one pre-race I thought….

I lost £40 on the race by backing both of mines and leaving no lays!

My first 3 point bet of the month ran in the 3.20 race. From my analysis, only a handful of horses could handle the ground and for an 18 runner race, it didn’t look too competitive as lots couldn’t win.

I hate backing horses Each-Way as you have probably managed to guess but I really couldn’t see this not being in the first four today. As it turned out, it fell out the stalls, gave them a good start (difficult to do on soft ground IMO) and stayed on late to finish a never nearer 4th but beaten miles.

Annoyingly, with 5 non-runners, only 13 went to post and anyone who backed this with a bookmaker lost. I made £15 on the race which was a bonus to be honest as I backed it to place and win on Betfair, so it doesn’t give me much satisfaction to say I made a little…..

My final selection was Poppy Day in the 5.00 race. I backed it at 50+ to win and at 6.8 to place on Betfair (first 4 places) and it ran an OK race and was finishing fast in 5th place at 33/1.

I made my feelings clear this morning about this horse and it ran the sort of race I thought it would. It all depends on what the Racing Post analyst makes of the race but in my opinion, the horse lost its position mid race, was actually last at one stage, and then as soon as they straightened up, it ran like it was Shergar. It finished 5th having been miles back and in my opinion, over a longer trip and on this ground, it may hose up if Mick can find another easy race like this one. Has the price gone now?

I was close to collecting on the place bet but I made £38 profit as it traded at 4 IR (some people got carried away with it finishing fast and the other horse that looked like it that finished fast and just lost). Anyway, not complaining and it makes it a poor day a little better.

As I hinted at last night, the traders on Betfair who are trading my horses IR after backing pre-race are kicking my ass this month and today was another example!

Anyone backing and laying could have won a fair amount helped by the last race and anyone backing each-way on Betfair collected on the main bet, but it will do down as the most disappointing day this month for me. I won £28.04 on the last race to put me in a small profit for the day.

A 6 point loss puts me into a loss this month to SP betting and my strike rate for winners is looking poor at the moment. Very poor if I’m honest! All I can do is keep plugging away and reading races as I do and we’ll turn the corner soon.

4 selections today finished 3rd at 12/1, well beaten at 9/1, 4th at 9/1 and 5th at 33/1.

It’s not disastrous stuff but I know I need to do better. Lucky this is a free month….LOL

Incidentally, I’ve been informed that some people have been plugging the blog on Betfair which is nice but it also means that we will get some of the Betfair idiots trying to post comments on here I guess, so we should beware…….. If we see any, just ignore them!

Some initial ideas....

2008-09-08T22:19:00.002+01:00

I wasn’t going to do a blog post tonight as I’m about to get stuck into form for a few hours and it’s going to be a late night for me. However, at least I’ll have Andy Murray to keep me company!

I thought I’d quickly mention the feedback I’ve received. I’ve had a great response and some of the ideas have been great. Basically, most people want me to produce the best tipping site out there as well offering the analysis and tips much cheaper than any other service out there as most agree they don't represent value for money. I don’t see this as a major issue to be honest and I’ll hopefully manage to do this with a bit of luck if my figures are accurate.

Lots of you have told me to scrap the free month idea if I have a losing month and after having a think about it, I agree. The worry was that I would have very little incentive in the free month after I lose and I probably agree. In addition, no other tipster offers this form of guarantee, so why should I?

Everyone appears to like my personable approach and don’t want me to become some sort of faceless tipping service like others out there that currently exist. I really understand this comment and I agree 100%. I intend to provide the sort of personal service to subscribers that is currently not available out there at the moment to my knowledge.

Most people like the analysis as it currently is and like the analysis along with the tips. Some wouldn’t be happy with just the tips, so I’ve noted this.

Everyone commented on price and a few suggested limiting membership next month. Firstly, there is no need to limit membership. As I’ve shown many times on here, my horses are much more liable to drift than shorten. Therefore, we don’t need to worry about the number of subscribers at the moment.

The simple reason for this is that I specialise in races for exposed handicappers and the form is always in the book. Hence, people will always be willing to lay my horses. That comment applies to Bookmakers and Betfair layers. Hence, in the first few months with a small number of subscribers, we don’t need to worry about limiting membership.

With regards to price, I’m still trying to work through how many subscribers I need to make it worth my while. I’m expecting to spend 80 hours a month on form study and other admin, so I need to cover my own time and any costs associated with the service. A profit is not too important to me as long as I can cover my own time.

A few other ideas from people had included me offering one-to-one tutoring or group tutoring to people who wanted to learn to read form and select winners. People also suggested a question and answer session with me at least once a week and this sort of thing appeals to me to be honest. I wouldn’t mind getting grilled by subscribers if I select losers!

One thing that a few of you mentioned is that I need a new base for this part of The Experiment. The blog has been a great success story and whatever happens, I will continue to update the blog to document the next part of The Experiment.

However, I have also started to think about a new web page and I’ve asked someone to look into it for me. If everything goes to plan, I may have a new website for next months’ new adventure!

As you can see, I have been thinking about how next month may work and I’ve produced a little business model. I’m still working a few things out and details have still to be finalised but I’d like to take as many blog readers with me on to the next stage of the adventure. Therefore, I’d be looking at a way of getting my readers a deal whereby they pay a small amount to subscribe to my analysis and I’d hope to keep them on a smaller rate than other subscribers.

As the subscription list grows (if it does grow!), any new subscribers would be charged a higher fee and this will help to fund the lower fees of my regulars.

As I’ve said, I’m still working through it in my head but once I get somewhere, I’ll let you know.

There are around 7 possible races for me to analyse tomorrow, so it will be a late night!

Look at the big picture!

2008-09-07T22:06:00.002+01:00

Daily Profit £10.00

As the tonight’s title states, I think we need to start looking at the big picture. Some readers are getting slightly carried away at the moment and the blog is in danger of turning into a riot!

Firstly, I know I allow anonymous comments on here but please leave a name with each comment. This comment especially applies to people who are on the distribution list for the emails. Don’t criticise me anonymously as it is very unfair in my opinion and I don’t mind criticism as long as I feel it is justified.

Also, I know some readers will be disappointed with the criticism but I can cope with the criticism of a few, so I don’t want readers to respond with a tirade of abuse at anyone who criticises. I appreciate that people are sticking up for me but I don’t want people using abusive language to get across their point….

Right, let’s look at today. A few people have said I’ve lost my discipline today by giving two selections and in one way, they are right. After spending 6+ hours looking at races over a few days, I was desperate to find a selection. As you all saw in the email, I thought both races were very tricky today and I decided on 0.5 points win on both selections as a way of copping out!

My first selection was Sphinx in the 4.00. It finished 2nd at 14/1 but being honest, it was never going to beat the winner. This result led to an anonymous comment from someone saying that I deserve flak for saying that the fav was a possible lay selection for people who like laying as it was held on two form lines.

Let’s get a few things straight. Why people lay horses I’ve no idea. I’ll never lay a single horse as it means you are backing at odds on and I never back at odds on. Also, on the form line, the favourite was held. It’s in the form book in black and white.

What I didn’t factor in was the fact the favourite was still improving. I’ve said it a million times on here before but the horses who will always stuff me are the improvers. I always go by what the form book says. The form book lied today but in the long-run, it tells the truth.

Another point is the fact the favourite was 7/4. If I’d laid a 10/1 shot that had won, give me stick and I’ll take it but it was 7/4! In addition, my selection was 24 on Betfair and traded at about 2.5. So, even if you had laid the fav, you could still have made a profit easily (as pointed out by in a comment!).

If you asked me to analyse that race again, I would always back Sphinx and at 14/1, it was an amazing bet.

So you are aware, I had my maximum 3 points win (£60) on that at 24 on Betfair. I laid off at 12 very early on to get riskfree and I took £20 profit at 6 with a large sum left on the horse if it had won. All in all, not a bad race.

Overall though, a 0.5 point loss on the race for the blog monthly tipping P&L.

The 4.30 race was an interesting race. I couldn’t find anything I wanted to bet on here and I should never have given a tip. I knew that I had to select a high drawn horse and I made a great comment about the draw. The eagle-eyed will have noticed that horses drawn 1,2 and 3 were the last three home. Nothing surprising there if I’m being honest but I should have taken my own advice in the email……

Looking at the result now, it’s easy to see that I should have backed the winner. It was slipping down the handicap and was on a winnable mark. I initially thought straight after the race that this was the 1 in 4 race that I couldn’t select the winner of and I’ve said that to a few of you in emails but having looked at it closely tonight, I could have selected that. It ran better the last twice than it initially looked when I looked last night and I’ll hold my hands up. We missed a winner there I’m afraid.

My selection was The Bear and it finished way out the back as it was drawn 2. No complaints at all and it was a shitty tip to be honest. Should never have given it and apologies to anyone who lost by backing it.

Today has taught me another valuable lesson but part of it is linked to the fact that this is a free month I think. If I was earning money from looking at form, I wouldn’t care in the slightest about missing out on selections due to non-runners and abandonment’s. However, I’d spent around 6 hours plus looking at form and had no selections to show for it. I got desperate and tried to make these two work for me.

Sphinx wasn’t a bad selection as it at least had a decent form line but The Bear was very poor and I should never have selected it. It was a waste of 0.5 points if I’m honest and a waste of £10 for me.

Anyway, away to look at tomorrow’s racing now and hopefully, we’ll find something there to back. Feels like we can do with a winner to get the ball rolling again!

The big picture though is that anyone who has followed me all month can’t be down. I know the traders who are backing and laying my selections IR are beating my 4 points profit as they are at about the 10 point mark I’m led to believe but it’s early days…..At least no one is losing!

Thanks to 99% of readers, get lost the other 1%!

2008-09-06T20:09:00.002+01:00

The title of tonight’s post is slightly confusing but you’ll soon see why I’m a little bit annoyed.

Firstly, the feedback and advice I’ve had from every reader who has replied to last night’s post has been fantastic. Absolutely brilliant if I’m honest and I’m going to spend a good few days sifting through the emails and taking on board all of your comments. I couldn’t have asked for a better response and I’m amazed at the amount of nice people who are reading my blog. Thanks.

OK, on to today’s email. I spent over 2 hours of my time analysing 4 races last night. Two of my races were abandoned as Haydock was off, so I was left with my analysis of the two handicaps at Kempton.

In both races, I had the short-priced favourite down as the likely winner. I only mentioned these two horses in the email. I was struggling to see many negatives on either one to be honest but as I said in my email today, there is something inside of me that means I’ll never give these horses as a selection. I don’t see backing 2/1 shots in 16 runner handicaps as a way for us to make money in the long-run.

I’m liable to take some stick for this view but I’ll never change it. If readers want to back 2/1 shots in competitive handicaps, go and pay £100+ to a professional tipster every month. Don’t read my blog and don’t give me stick in an email when both of them win. Yeah, one reader wasn’t pleased I didn’t tip these two today……

Secondly, I received an abusive email straight after the second horse won from someone who had laid both the horses today. I’ll publish the email in a comment to this post if anyone wants me to but where the hell did it say in the email to lay both horses?

Answers on a postcard please.

I was very annoyed this morning that I had spent another couple of hours looking at form and analysing races to not be able to give out a tip today. It would have been very easy for me to tell everyone to back these two today but I didn’t think they would win 1 in 3 races. Hence, they weren’t 2/1 chances in my view pre-race.

Clearly, I’ve got that wrong and I’ll hold my hands up but let’s be honest here, they were 2/1 in 16 runner races. It was an easy mistake to make and I’ll make lots more of these errors in the future. The second one was lucky to get up to win anyway.

If people just want winners at any price, I’ll start tipping odds on shots in 2 horse races if there is a demand for this sort of thing. I’ll keep the 25/1 penalty kicks to myself and a few others who believe in what I’m trying to do on here.

Apologies for the slight rant tonight but I’m annoyed at myself for not telling everyone to back these two winners today and I don’t need an abusive email from someone who has done their bollocks trying to lay my selections. They have now been removed from the distribution list as was their wish.

Today, I gave up my day of trading to try to find some winners for tomorrow and annoyingly, there is a large chance that the meeting may be off. This could be the third day in a row when I’ve spent time looking at races only for them to be abandoned. I know this is just bad luck but it is a bit annoying as I only have one month to prove what I can do to everyone, so it means it’s another opportunity gone for me.

I hope some of you had a good day…….

Comments please......

2008-09-05T21:48:00.002+01:00

As most readers will know, my selection today was a non-runner. I would be very grateful if no one mentioned the name of the selection on the blog. As you will have guessed, I thought this was a near certainty today and I don’t want the world to know about it.

The horse is not entered to run anywhere in the next week, so we will need to be patient.

I’ve decided to do a post tonight to try to get some feedback from readers about what they think I should do next month. Feel free to post comments on here or for a more private discussion, drop me a note to my hotmail account and I’ll reply through that.

As I’ve made clear on here, it is ultimately my intention to use my knowledge to help others make a decent profit from this game. In return, I’d hope to gain an extra income stream as a reward.

As you know, I work full-time but even so, I can’t really afford to gamble, so I know I can’t make this game pay at the moment. I also don’t have the time to trade apart from a Saturday which isn’t much good, so I know my income from Betfair isn’t going to be very much.

However, what I do have is a real passion and skill for analysing races and of course, I can make time every night to study form. I initially agreed to give everyone a trial of tips and analysis for a month so I can prove that I know what I’m talking about and to convince people that I’m not trying to con anyone.

Anyone who has been reading the blog from the beginning or even for the past few months has probably got to know me quite well and I’ve been in contact with many of you through emails at various times.

I received an email from a reader last night who told me to go back and read the comment that Keith Driscoll made a few months ago. For those that didn’t see it, Keith had obviously spent time looking at the Handicap Forum where I was posting up race analyses on a daily basis for over a month. In a two week spell, I made 61 points profit from 39 races from one point wins. He used the quote “there are very few flat form-book readers who are as bright as you.”

Keith is a professional gambler I believe who also runs a tipping site. The gist of his comment was that I was wasting my time trading and that I should be trying to find a professional punter to bankroll my selections or asking a tipping site to give me a trial so that I can sell tips.

I dismissed his comment at the time to be honest as I had no intention of trying to join a tipping site as I know most of them just exploit their customers. I also didn’t like the tone of Keith’s email and I’m sure he thought he could exploit me by giving him free tips for his tipping services.

As it turns out, I think Keith was ultimately right in his assessment of my trading. You don’t need my knowledge to scalp on Betfair and I don’t think it helps me in the slightest. On the other hand, I don’t want to join a tipping service and get paid peanuts for giving them selections and analysis every day. As you will have guessed, I’m trying to cut out the middle man by providing the tips myself.

This week is probably a great example of why I need to sell my analysis and tips to people. I have won £60 this week from gambling and being honest, I must have put about 12+ hours work into form study and selections as well as writing up the analysis and sending out the emails.

I’d be better off packing in the blog and the whole Betfair experience and getting a job stacking shelves in the evenings to earn a few extra bob!

However, I know from the emails and comments that others have made money from my analysis and selections this week. Being honest, without sounding smart, I’ve given 6 selections and 5 have traded well below half in running. I’ve also analysed another 6 horses and all 6 have traded below half IR and 3 of them were in the same bloody race! I’ve also given an 11/1 as a selection and a 20/1 when I narrowed it down to 4 possible winners.

In any race where I have narrowed the field down, I’ve always selected the winner and therefore, you could have laid every horse in the field that I said couldn’t win!!!

I’ve had emails from people saying that they are laying multiple horses I dismiss, people are laying the shorter priced horses I dismiss, some people are trading my selections to lay off IR, some are betting on multiple selections, some are following my staking plan and gambling etc.

One thing I’ve been really keen on saying on here is that there are many ways to skin a cat on Betfair. Using my analysis, this is definitely true. Some people will have been disappointed I’ve only had 1 winner thus far but I’ve not had much luck in my opinion, so I’m not too worried about how it’s going. 1 winner from 6 selections isn't too bad......

Obviously, I need to start thinking about what will happen from next month. Assuming I get on OK for the remainder of this month, I can’t go on spending 20+ hours a week doing race analysis and sending out free information and maintaining my blog.

I’ve also been helping a few people out with regards to form reading through emails over the past month or so and I think there is also maybe a demand for people to get a more personal service where they can learn from me and ultimately, in time, use my methods to select their own winners. I’d be open to this sort of thing if there was a demand for it.

I’m also thinking a private chat room for subscribers would go down a treat. Obviously, I’d be able to use the room to share opinions and views on other races as well as the ones I tip and this could also be used as a learning tool to aid the development of potential form readers who want to learn.

As you can see, the possibilities are endless……..

At the moment, I’m thinking about the following types of service:

Backing Services

- All selections by email or text or both (no analysis)
- 3* selections by email or text or both (no analysis)
- All selections by email with analysis
- 3* selections by email with analysis
- All selections by email with analysis and access to private chat room
- All selections by email with analysis and access to private chat room with frequent interactive group tutoring etc.

Laying Services

- Multiple selections to lay in races (no analysis)
- Single selections to lay in races (no analysis)
- Multiple selections to lay in races (with analysis)
- Single selections to lay in races (with analysis)

Packaged Service

- All selections by email with analysis and access to private chat room with tutoring and all laying services with analysis.

Obviously, I’m not going to offer all of the above services but it will be driven by what people want. I’d only offer 2 or 3 services at the beginning but I could expand this in the future if there is demand.

I know the gamblers are only interested in tips and therefore, they don’t want the analysis. People who make their own books on Betfair and back or lay multiple horses would be more interested in the analysis or the laying services etc.

The above list is not an exhaustive list of options and I’m really looking for some help from potential subscribers about what they want from a tipping service. Lots of my readers use tipping services which are currently out there and therefore, I want them to see me as a blank piece of paper. If you had to build a tipping service from scratch, what would you want from it?

Traders, I’ve been really keen on telling people to back my horses and lay IR at half the price to get an Evs winner. Is there a demand for this service?

One thing I’m very keen on doing is providing a free month of selections when the subscribers don’t make a profit in the previous month. For example, if Betfair traders wanted to back and lay at half the price, if I don’t get more than 50% of winners by this method, they would get the next month free. They may lose money from my selections if I ever do very badly but they will make it back in the future months no problem.

I’d be really keen on getting people’s opinions on the options above and the post in general. As you can gather, I want to offer a tipping service that has very little risk attached to the subscribers. I want to carry as much of the risk as possible.

If I win 100 points in a month and then have a losing month where I lose 5 points, the subscriber would be 95 points up and yet, they would still qualify for the next month free.

Some people will be reading this and thinking I’ve lost the plot but as I keep saying on here, my edge is so large, I really don’t think I’ll have many losing months!!!

Comments please……..

Tipping God?

2008-09-04T19:05:00.000+01:00

Daily Loss £20.00

I’m not really sure how to start tonight’s post but as you can imagine, I’ve got a fair bit say. (The blog title is a quote from a reader on my last post, not my view!)

I’ll start off with 2 quotes I got from 2 readers in emails straight after the race today. It read “OK analysis there, well done.” It made me chuckle……

When I mentioned it to Andrew, he wrote, “What the hell do they want from you, the whole 20 runners in finishing order?” This made me laugh too. I replied, “no, they just want a bloody winner!”.

OK, the first point about today is that I lost 2 points and more importantly for me, I lost £20. The reason I didn’t back my horse for 1 point each way is that I’m not familiar too much with the place markets on BF and I wanted 8 but I couldn’t get matched, so I gave up asking.

I actually had £50 win at one stage with average odds of 32 but I traded in £30 at 23-26 pre-race. In summary, I ended up with £20 win at 42/1 which was about as much value as you can squeeze from a horse that started at 20/1. I couldn’t get the place odds to match my win odds, so I didn’t back each-way.

For anyone who is not aware, I decided to analyse the 2.00 at Redcar today. It was a 20 runner 2 year old handicap. This is not my typical sort of race as I prefer more exposed horses and Andrew wrote to me this morning asking, “why are you trying to unpick the most difficult race of the day?”

Basically, I feel like I have to use this month to prove to people that I know what I’m doing. I know there will be many people reading the emails everyday and being quite sceptical about what I’m trying to do. No one likes paying for tips and in the long-run, it would be much better to select your own horses. However, not everyone has the knowledge and time to do this, so I’m hoping that I can provide a service to these people ultimately.

When I was looking through the races last night, I remember thinking to myself, that would be nearly impossible to unpick. However, one saying I was taught was“ The bigger the field, the bigger the cert”. Andrew always laughs when I tell him this when I’m analysing 20 runner fields but it is so true. My edge in these races is absolutely massive.

Joe Punter has zero chance of picking the winner or understanding the form lines. Therefore, if I spend two hours or three hours looking at the race and unpicking the form lines, I can make it pay in the long run easily.

Anyway, so I decided to try to unpick that race last night. So you all know how long it took, I was studying in a room on my own for just over 2 and a bit hours. That got me down to the final 4 horses. I then stopped and waited for the odds this morning before trying to compute the horse’s chance against their selected odds.

As I’ve shown everyone in the past 2 weeks, the final bit of the jigsaw is usually the most difficult to fit into place. Narrowing the race down to 4 is the easy part. Getting the winner is the difficult bit.

Usually, I plump for the horse that is a high price but I was spoilt for choice today. My final 4 were priced at 20/1,25/1, 14/1 and 10/1. Now that’s what you call spoilt for choice!

As we all know now, I again messed up this bit of the puzzle. I plumped for the 20/1 chance which was the best value in my opinion.

Thankfully, I’ve had 2 very nice emails from Stan and Dan as well as the comments below from them and others saying that they backed all 4. I take my hat off to Stan as it appears he used the 4 horses for reverse tricasts and forecasts for 50p stakes and won over £1,300!

(The irony of this is that I personally hate permutation bets like this and I would never recommend to anyone to perm my horses in tricasts especially. The chance of anyone picking a tricast in a 20 runner handicap is up there with 5 numbers and the bonus ball in my opinion but I know many punters use them.)

Anyway, well done Stan and it makes me feel quite good to know that you won a few quid mate. My address is XXXXX and please make the cheque payable to Graeme Dand for my share mate!!! Just joking…..

Back to the post-race analysis…..The result of the race was the 25/1 won, the 10/1 was 2nd and the 14/1 was 3rd. These were the odds this morning. The SPs were 20/1, 8/1 and 14/1.

I hear everyone shouting “what the hell happened to your 20/1 shot?” OK, I have a few points regarding this horse.

As I made crystal clear in my email, there was a horse running in the race called Cutting Comments and it finished 4th at 25/1. On the formbook, my selection had 10lbs in hand of this horse today. As it turned out, my horse finished tailed off at the back.

Now, I don’t want to be a smart-ass here but clearly, my horse has not run anywhere near to form. I’d even go as far to say that if we assume that the 4th has run to form, then my horse would have won the race if it had ran to the same level of form it did when it faced this horse last time.

In simple terms, if my horse had run to form, I would have selected the winner and the 3 horses which followed him home. Now that would have been a good story to write about on the blog………

For the traders out there, my other 3 horses excluding the winner traded at 1.4, 2.26 and 4.2. At the off, my 4 selections started at odds of around 27, 11, 19 and 34.

Therefore, if you had followed my advice and backed at 30+ on Betfair, you would have been OK as long as you laid off IR at 5 or above.

I’m sure you are all wondering how Andrew used my analysis! As you know, Andrew likes big prices. He was spoilt for choice today and he backed all 3 of the big prices which meant he got the winner, 3rd and mines!

Due to the fact that they all traded at below 5 and one at 1.4, he managed to triple his profits on the race by getting all his low lays matched IR and he won a substantial sum. He then followed it up with backing a 40 shot in the next which traded low and winning another nice sum to have an absolutely fantastic day on the whole. Well done mate!!!!!

Overall, I think this race will go down as one of the best races I’ve analysed this year. Nice time to do it when I’m giving out a month of free advice in emails I must admit!

For those of you that lost today by backing my selection, don’t worry about it. I lost too! However, if I can keep narrowing races down to 4 horses with an average price of 16/1, in the long-run, not only will we do well, we’ll absolutely skin the layers and the bookmakers! Patience my friends, patience……..

A Broken Promise!

2008-09-03T20:55:00.001+01:00

Daily Loss £25.00

I made a promise in my email this morning but if you have looked at today’s results, you’ll know why I want to break the promise!

I spent about 2 hours looking at 4 very difficult handicaps last night. I came up with 4 selections and I did think about tipping all 4 today for 1/2 point win. I decided instead to have 1 point win on the one I thought was the best value and annoyingly, it ran easily the worst race!

However, I still made the right decision as my other 3 all lost, so I saved us a point today. It was very close to being a huge mistake though, so I got lucky today.

Firstly, the horse I tipped today was Acquifer (4.20) for 1 point win. It was very weak all day, started at 24 on Betfair (12/1 SP) and ran like a hairy goat. It clearly didn’t run to form and I’ve no complaints. I had £20 on at 18 and I thought it was a great price. I was wrong.

I wasn’t sure about talking about the other 3 races I analysed as I don’t want people to think I’m pulling the wool at any time but as one eagle-eyed work colleague pointed out to me at lunchtime today, everyone already knew 2 of the other selections as I mentioned them on the blog last night!

I forgot all about this when I wrote the email this morning, so I was trying to not mention the other 3 and yet I’d mentioned 2 of them on the blog post last night. I know I’m making lots of mistakes at the moment but as I keep saying, I’m new to this game. Subscribers wouldn’t be best pleased to buy tips from someone who posts them on a blog the previous night!

Anyway, my other 3 selections I had today were Fly Kiss (3.00), Shesha Bear (4.00) and Franksalot (5.00).

The reasons for not backing each were fairly straightforward for me.

Fly Kiss was dropping down the handicap and it was closely linked in form with Acquifer. However, Acquifer looked to have a much easier race today, so I didn’t want to put all my eggs in one basket on this form line.

Shesha Bear was tipped by me when it won last time at 13/2. Today, it was 4lb higher in a tougher race and was half the price. As I said to Andrew this morning, I would have loved to tip this today but something inside of me won’t let me back horses like this. Last time was the time to bet on it. Not today.

Franksalot was the most interesting one for me. It loves Brighton and if it wasn’t for the fact it disappointed me on Monday, this would have been today’s tip. However, after hearing what happened on Monday, I had a huge doubt about the horse staying this trip today. On the plus side, I was so sure on Monday it would return to form and I’m never usually that badly wrong about horses. This made me look a fool on Monday…..

For those that don’t know the results, Fly Kiss was 4th at 9/1, Shesha Bear was 2nd at 4/1 (traded 1.13 IR), and Franksalot was 2nd at 16/1 (traded 3 IR).

Therefore, in 4 races, I had 1 bad loser, a 4th and 2 seconds. Obviously, I happened to select the wrong horse today to tip but I would have lost either way, so no complaints.

The most pleasing horse for me was Franksalot. It gives me a bit of satisfaction when I managed to spot it was about to return to form. Today, the form figures for this horse were 00000. Therefore, it’s pleasing to know that I spotted it when it returned to form. That’s my edge over every other tipster in the land. I had £5 win today at 28 which IMO, was worth the risk.

As it turns out, we can never back Franksalot now as everyone knows it has returned to form and the price is gone but anyone who lost money on this on Monday can be pleased with the knowledge that they got a good bet even though it appeared a bad bet straight after the race!

Nick raised a very good point today about tracking my profit of the Tipping Experiment. I’m tracking every horse I select in a spreadsheet and I’m keeping record of the SP and the price I recommend (or best price people get from a bookmaker within 10 minutes of me sending the email!).

Someone else has said that a true test of a tipster is how they do at SP. Being honest, I don’t really care how people judge me. As I’ve said before on here, I’m so confident that I’ll do well at this, I don’t care if you judge me at SP or best price.

Tipping Legends quote both and I was planning on quoting both. If people want, I’ll just quote SP. I see that Tipping Legends have made 10.5, 1, -10.7, 89.1, 43.2, -9, 16 points each month since they started up at SP.

By my reckoning, that’s a profit of 140.1 in 7 months which is 20 points profit a month. In my opinion, this is absolutely fantastic and shows me that they know what they are doing and are probably the best tipping service out there at the moment. Do I think I can match that or beat that? If I didn’t, I wouldn’t have started this tipping experiment…….

Someone also sent me an email today asking about the average price of my selections in the long run. As I’ve said many times before on here, I specialise in competitive handicaps and therefore, I’m not like the typical tipping service! I’m guessing that my average SP will be around 10/1 in the long-run, so we need to be aware that losing runs are matter of the course.

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s racing and I’m going to concentrate on one race tomorrow. I’m feeling very confident with how I’m reading races and form lines, so I’m going to unpick the first race at Redcar. It’s a 20 runner 2 year old handicap with the favourite at about 6/1. Sounds like my cup of tea….

The market isn't always right!

2008-09-02T23:07:00.001+01:00

Daily Profit £151.00

Today was an interesting day…..

My first selection was Fort Churchill (2.00) and it proved very weak in the market pre-race. It drifted from 7/1 to 11/1 at the off and it reached 17 on Betfair. The horse won fairly easily by 2 lengths and as I said would happen if it won in my email today, with hindsight, this was probably the bet of the season!

The second selection was much more speculative in my opinion but as the day went on, I was sure it would run a massive race. I initially thought it was worth a bet at odds of around 20/1 this morning but with 6 non-runners, it was available to back at around the 8/1 mark. This was Trafalgar Square (4.55).

This ran a shocking race and I don’t know why. Interestingly, it was backed from an opening show of 7/1 on course to 4/1 before starting at 9/2. Therefore, some other people agreed with me! No consolation for a loser but I think it’s interesting. For the second time in 2 days, one of my tips has been heavily punted on course to half the suggested price and ran a poor race.

As I said last night, if we keep backing horses that start at half the price that we back at, we’ll do well in the long run. Simple as that!

I laughed at a few of the emails and comments concerning Fort Churchill. Its form figures were 040000005 and it had been beaten more than 8 lengths in 8 of these 9 runs. Not really inspiring form!

As I said in the email this morning, these horses are easily my favourite horses to find as when they return to form, they are near certainties to win and they win easily. This returned to form today and shock horror, it wins easily…..

Clearly, everyone wants to know, how did I know it was going to return to form today? Obviously, I didn’t or I would have lumped my mortgage on it but I was able to read between the lines of its last two runs. It ran much better than it appears on paper and the fact I saw its 2nd last run was the key. I saw the way it travelled and to my trained eye (lol), it travelled like a dream as I said this morning. It was hampered and this was the reason it was tailed off.

Last time, it again was well beaten but going by the RP comments, it was held up in last place in a slow run race and was never near leaders. Therefore, it didn’t get the run of the race but it finished clear of the rest in 5th place. This was the key for me. There was 9 lengths back to the 6th in a slow run race. It managed to pulverise the horses it ran against at the back of the field. Hence, it did the best it could in the circumstances.

Combining these two races allowed me believe that it had returned to form and was likely to run well today. Thankfully, I was right!

Steve made a great comment today about the fact my email was very negative in places about the horse and I gave reasons not to back it. As you all know, I’m not trying to pretend to people that I’m a ‘real’ tipster. I have no inside knowledge and all I can base my selections on is what I see in the formbook. Therefore, I’m not going to sit here and say that that horse was an obvious horse to spot and everyone should have spotted it and therefore, I’m not going to write in an email that there were no negatives today. There was lots of speculation and lots of doubts but as I keep saying on here, as long as it’s factored into the price, it’s still worth a punt!

Lastly, I’m amazed at the range of odds that people backed this at today. I backed it at 10 on Betfair, some of you got 11/1 with bookmakers, a few got 11-14 on Betfair, Dave got 16 on Betfair and Andrew got 17 on Betfair which was the peak I think!

Clearly, I made a bit of a mess of it and I’ve missed out on a couple of points of profit today. I can’t afford to do this very often as it will eat away at my ‘edge’ but I won’t complain too much about today’s profit.

A quick comment on the second race. As I said above, my selection ran a poor race. This wasn’t down to the ground as it goes on soft ground, so it ran way below form. At 9/2 at the off, the value was probably gone but I doubt anyone backed at this price as it opened on course at 7, so everyone got a bit of value and as long as we remember this, we should be happy with today’s effort.

As a side note to the second race, the winner was beaten by Shesha Bear last time which was the 13/2 winner I tipped before my holiday. The second that day (Gracechurch) has also finished second since, so the form looks rock solid. Shesha Bear is declared to run tomorrow again…..Also, I see Franksalot (tipped yesterday) is also going tomorrow….very interesting!

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s races already and it looks a nightmare. I’m either going to put up no horses and have a rest day or put up 3/4 very speculative horses for 0.5 points win on each to give us some interest. Obviously, I need to be disciplined and I don’t want to fritter away some of our hard earned profits but I’ll see what oddschecker says tomorrow morning.

8 points profit after day 2 is a decent start from only 4 selections so far, so it gets the ball rolling now. Let’s hope we can keep it going throughout the remainder of the month…..

Poor Start

2008-09-01T21:34:00.002+01:00

Daily Loss £40.00

Not going to dwell every night on how my selections run as the time is better spent on the form for the next day but I’ll try to provide some commentary each night for readers of the blog.

Today, I put up 2 horses for 1 point win at prices of 14/1 and 16/1. I did receive a few emails back saying that 16/1 and 20/1 were available in places but since I don’t have access to oddschecker at work, I need to rely on Andrew and when he’s out the house, I need to use Irish Racing.com which only shows 6 bookmakers!

I placed my bets on Betfair at lunchtime on BF Mobile and after rule 4 deductions, I had £20 win on Franksalot (2.10) at 16 and £20 on Ray of Joy (5.10) at 16.8 on average.

Franksalot started at 14/1 and was fairly weak pre-race, so it would have been much bigger on Betfair. It traded about 6 IR I believe.

Ray of Joy opened on course at 14/1 and was backed down to 8/1 before starting at 17/2. Clearly, some people spotted this one along with me…..

I’ve no idea what price Ray of Joy traded at IR but it would have been fairly short going by the commentary as it appeared to have a great chance 1f out, so I’m guessing it maybe got low IR.

In summary, if I can continue backing these horses at the prices I backed at, I don’t see any problem with making a profit in the long-run at this game. Same comment applies to everyone who backed these horses today.

Franksalot appeared to travel well through the race but was set alight by the blinkers and probably by the fact it hadn’t run for two months and was too fresh. It had no chance of staying the 1m trip as it needs to be held off the pace at this trip and come late and therefore, due to it being too keen, he ruined his chances. No real complaints.

I did narrow the race down to 4 and this morning, I thought the odds were nearly perfect on the other three runners. Two of them finished first and second, so I didn't read the race bad. I just thought Frank was the value call today.

Ray of Joy’s race is easily the most interesting race of the day for me. A few points. I priced the race up last night and when I checked the prices today, it looked like a different race to the one I analysed!

I was against the favourite in a major way in this race as none of its runs had worked out well and in my eyes, it had very little chance today. I had it as 6/1+ in my tissue. It was 5/2 this morning and you can see why I struggled to understand the prices!

I said in my email today that I would lay the horse all day and I take a little bit of pleasure from seeing the horse finished tailed off last beaten 16 lengths at 11/4 fav. Obviously, it has run too bad to be true but I really don’t understand why it was 11/4.

Can anyone explain that to me?

I had Ray of Joy in at 9/1 in my tissue and when I saw it at 16/1 this morning (20/1 in a place!), it became an obvious bet for me. At 9/1 it had a fair chance in my book, at 16/1 it was a good bet.

My only decision regarding the horse was whether I back win or each-way. With hindsight, it finished 5 lengths clear of the 4th and was an each-way steal. However, I still feel I made the right decision to put it up as a win bet as I had to speculate slightly with regards to the form. It wasn’t a rock solid bet, so I didn’t want to risk any more than a 1 point bet.

The most pleasing thing about today is that readers would have been able to get decent prices very easily as I managed it, so that’s a positive to take from today. If we can continue to get 16/1 on horses that start at half the price and run well, we’ll do fine in the long run.

I’ve already found 2 possibles for tomorrow but like every possible tip I give out now, it will depend on what price they are tomorrow morning. Here’s hoping they are 16/1 shots…..

Thanks Mate!

2008-08-31T16:46:00.001+01:00

I’m back........

Just wanted to say that I arrived back in one piece yesterday and I’m really looking forward to getting back to work tomorrow…..NOT! The holiday was great and it was nice to get away from work and the blog for a while….

I had a really enjoyable hour or so last night reading the blog posts and comments since I’ve been away and if I say so myself, this is quite an entertaining blog at times! I even had 6 emails from readers complimenting me on the blog while I was away, so Andrew can take some credit for this. lol

I don’t want to discuss any of Andrew’s posts as I don’t want to step on his toes in anyway but I thought it was worth putting my tuppence-worth in regarding the Return on Investments (RoI) that Andrew makes on races. I think he quoted that around 1 in 10 times he’ll select a winner at 25/1 or so and to most people, this obviously sounds like rubbish.

As Andrew clearly stated many times though, his strategy is not scalable and therefore, he is limited in someway by the returns he can make. One point I’d make regarding Andrew’s strategy is that in the majority of races, he will end up with a win bet at the off where the odds that he is getting look nothing like the starting price of the horse.

A horse that starts at 25/1 may have been backed by Andrew at average odds of 60+ on Betfair, so even though its BF starting price may only 36, Andrew will no doubt have got much higher odds from some silly layer when the market was still developing. This is effectively an ‘edge’ that he has created for himself in these types of races and this is why the return on investment is so great.

However, if Andrew started asking for £50 wins on horses that are creeping out in price when the market is being formed, his ‘edge’ would be gone and he would never get the prices that he needs to make the returns on investment that he does. It really is as simple as that.

Over the last 6 months, Andrew has taught me so much about how to earn money on Betfair and how to make my knowledge pay. Without Andrew’s input, I’ve no doubt I wouldn’t have got anywhere on Betfair as I really didn’t have a clue what I was doing in the beginning. In return, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Andrew had his best ever month on Betfair last month (I had my worst incidentally!) and therefore, I feel that by helping me think about the how to make a return, it has helped him considerably also. We both benefit greatly I feel.

A few of Andrew’s posts contain an amazing amount of advice and hints and I would suggest that if anyone is serious about trying to select decent priced winners in horse races, they pay particular attention to these posts.

I can see by the comments that everyone enjoyed Andrew’s posts and I think it worked very well in my absence. If Andrew ever wants to post again on here, I’d be happy with this and I’m sure the readers would also be happy!

I was slightly saddened to read on Leon’s blog that he has stopped posting on his blog. Leon’s blog was the reason that I actually opened a Betfair account and was one of the key reasons I started a blog, so I’ll miss reading his blog.

I think in a way, he has been a victim of his own success. The first 6 months or so of Leon’s blog was a great read as he learned how to trade properly and it was great to track his progress. However, as I found out in the few months where I traded quite profitably, a blog becomes a bit boring when all you are doing is posting up a profit every day and it all becomes too repetitive.

I could tell that Leon’s enthusiasm for the blog was waning in his posts before my holiday, so I’m not surprised he’s stopping the blog. He’s probably outgrown his blog so to speak, but I’m sure he’ll continue to do great in the future with his trading. Good luck mate!

Tomorrow starts the next chapter of The Experiment for me as I start to give out horse racing tips on a daily basis. I’m really looking forward to getting started and I’m hoping that I do well. I know a few of my readers are planning on following my advice daily, so I hope I don’t let anyone down.

Just so everyone is aware, I’m going to be following my own tips also. I’ve decided that I can afford to play £20 a point for next month, so we’ll see how I do. I’ll be keeping track of my profits on the blog as usual and I’ll also track the point’s profit/loss of my tips, so those that are not subscribing to the emails will still be able to see how I do.

I will be using Betfair to place my bets though, so this won’t always match the prices available at the bookmakers, so the points profit won’t match my P&L I assume. If I have difficulty getting decent prices on Betfair, I may open a telephone account with a bookmaker but we’ll see how it goes first.

For those that are awaiting the email tomorrow, I didn’t expect to have a selection but having spent an hour or so looking at the races this afternoon, I have found 2 possible selections but as if often the case, it will depend on how the Racing Post analyst views the races and how the races are priced up tomorrow morning on Oddschecker.

If none of the selections are at ‘value odds’, I will send an email out saying that there are no selections for tomorrow. Depending on how busy I am at work, I intend to issue the email by about 11am everyday. If I have any problems, I’ll use the blog to communicate with everyone, so keep an eye on this also.

I won’t bother doing a review of the month as there’s not much to say. I made a profit of just less than £280 on the month and most of that was from backing 2 winners before I went on holiday, so it was an OK month.

Incidentally, I haven’t given up on trading in any way! With evening racing now winding down, my trading opportunities are limited to weekends, so I will spend more time reading form and more time on my tipping experiment during the week. At weekends, I’ll still be trying to trade.

I think that’s about it. I can see that this is the 44th post on the blog for the month of August and this makes me smile. It must be a part-time job to read the blog, let alone write the blog, but as long as I feel like I’m getting something back from it, I’m happy to continue with this sort of output. The feedback has been great recently, so it makes the blog worthwhile.

Good luck for next month. Fingers crossed I can find us some winners…..

And now, the end is near…

2008-08-30T19:13:00.002+01:00

But before I say my final farewells, a quick review of today’s races…

In truth, as with last Saturday, today’s races provided a fair reflection of the horses I pick and how I tend do…

In the first at Sandown I was right to oppose the 2 favourites - though I picked the wrong horse to do so with in Raymi Coya...
The second race at Sandown almost perfectly encapsulated my methodology… As I’d said, I felt that Patrician’s Glory was over priced at around 30. This was pure speculation on my behalf – but the point is, nobody could be sure how good the opposition was, so speculation in this kind of race is all that you can use. Whilst Patrician’s ran a great race – and looked like wining inside the final furlong – as has often been the case for me in the past, his run just petered out and he eventually finished third. However, all of my IR lays were matched (it traded at 1.26) and though I would have won a few more pounds if he had got up, I still made a good profit on the race…

Over at Chester: Whilst I’ve had horses brought down over the jumps, Speed Gifted will go down as my first ever ‘BD’ on the flat ! In truth, I don’t think it would have won regardless. To my eyes, it just wasn’t handling the tack (as I said, Chester is a unique course). Interestingly, the race was won by the only other runner in the race with group pretensions – Red Gala.
I didn’t actually have a bet in the next race - I couldn’t decide between the 2/3 on my short-list at the prices available. As it turned out, Thebes ran a really good race, trading close to even money, but seemed to get unbalanced whilst Celtic Sultan showed speed – but faded. Pawwan never really featured.

The Newton Abbot feature was probably the most interesting race of the day for me –as it high-lighted two things: why I prefer NH races to bet in; and how I can get into a mess backing drifters !
As I mentioned, I had narrowed the race down to 3. In truth, I was never going to back Enlightenment – as it was strong all day and too short a price; I had quite a strong preference for Full House over Always Waining – so when it got to 20, I struck my first bet. I went in again at 24; and then doubled my stakes at 28. I doubled again at 34 ! I was therefore left with a bit of a hole, when it nearly refused to race and started 10 lengths behind the field ! However, one of the beauties of NH for me, is that for a few minutes, you can back and lay IR. A couple more judicious backs on Full House (one of my failings is that I find it very difficult to accept that I ever back the ‘wrong’ horse) and a few lays, actually saw me in the position with about a mile to run, where I had over £100 green on Full House and no risk on the rest of the field. Quite a recovery, even if I do say so myself !
In the end, Full House not surprisingly faded – and Always Waining did the best of my selections in fourth. The favourite did indeed get beaten as predicted – though I admit that this looked unlikely jumping the last…!

So there you have it – the end of my tenure. I believe that Graeme is flying back in tonight and I’m sure he’ll be back on the blog first thing tomorrow in preparation for the tipping challenge he’s set himself during September.

I hope that most of you have enjoyed my time in the chair – and taken it in the spirit it was intended. I acknowledge that the delivery of some of my posts hasn’t been spot on – but I have had to compose most of them under severe time pressures and hopefully the content has offset any unintentional dodgey tone…
As I’ve said before, I have derived a lot of benefit from blogs – this one in particular – over the past year or so. I know it sounds a bit cheesy – but my intention this week has purely been to try and give something back. If just one or two readers have managed to glean a few ideas or different angles, then I will feel that the time I have spent has been worthwhile.
Be lucky !
Andrew.

Preview for Saturday

2008-08-29T23:46:00.003+01:00

As I mentioned in my earlier post, the races tomorrow for which there are established markets, don’t really grab me. However, I will be following the odds on a few of the runners, so I will share my thoughts and logic on here…

Chester 2:50

Over the years, I’ve found that when group class horses run in handicaps, they win – simple as. It doesn’t matter that they are invariably lumbered with top weight – provided the conditions are right (ie. distance and going), their class will see them through.
This is a high class handicap – but one horse in the race is almost certainly better than a handicapper. The horse in question is – not surprisingly – the top weight, Speed Gifted.
I say ‘almost certainly‘ because he hasn’t categorically proved his class - and therefore that would be the doubt. But he has been campaigned like a group horse by a shrewd trainer.
The last twice he has run, events have conspired against him (the soft ground at Ascot and getting upset in the preliminaries in France). Provided everything goes according to plan today, I could see him outclassing this field.
Anything above 6-1 is fair…

Chester 3:25

Chester is a unique course. A 1 mile oval, suited only to certain types of horses. The horses in question need to be sharp (out of the gates) and nimble – but just as importantly, they need to be well drawn (the lower the better) and ridden be a tactically astute jockey..
My 3 against the field in this race are Celtic Sultan, Thebes and Pawwan.
Pawwan’s jockey worries me enormously – so I would choose between the other two. However, as the likely odds of each will be around 14-1, choosing may not be necessary…

Sandown 2:05

This is a very trappy race, in which at least half the field can be given a chance.
However, the two favourites (Lindelaan and Barsheba) look beatable and the one that catches my eye, at a reasonable price, is Raymi Coya…
She has already won at listed level (as well as group 3). Her last two runs were at group 1 level, so the fact she finished eighth in both races, isn’t as bad at is it appears. In theory, she is held by Barsheba on her last run - but the going wouldn’t have suited her then, anywhere near as well as it will tomorrow.
At around 12-1, she looks a reasonable bet.

Sandown 2:35

Again, a very open race. Most of the field are open to significant improvement, which means that some speculation is in order…
Checking the Betfair odds, I see that Patrician’s Glory is currently 27 – which is too big. He won a useful maiden at Newbury on his debut and is from a stable not renowned for debut 2 year old winners (suggesting that he may well improve further). I suspect that his true chances are more in the 12-14 range – so I will certainly be playing at the available odds...

Newton Abbot 3:35

It’s great to see a decent NH race taking place – it’s a reminder that ‘proper’ racing is just around the corner…!
This is really competitive race for the time of year (and course !). Roby De Cimbre, representing Nicholls and Walsh, will almost certainly be over-backed. IMO , the race will be won by a horse that has been laid out for especially for the contest…
I quite like the look of Always Waining at around 20 – but if forced to chose the most likely winner, I would go for Full House or Enlightenment. The untapped potential of the latter would probably win the day – unless the price of Full House got much beyond the current 16 on Betfair…

Good luck for tomorrow – if you choose to play – especially if you follow me in on any of the above !

Reading between the lines…

2008-08-29T14:37:00.002+01:00

As I mentioned in my penultimate post, my method of winner finding sees me focusing quite extensively on the betting market and trainers. I’ve also mentioned that the races I most like to get involved with are maidens…

For my penultimate blog post, I thought I would describe the market movements I witnessed in a couple of recent maiden races: an Irish maiden hurdle and an English 2 year old flat race. The ‘stars’ of both races were a couple of twice raced, twice unplaced horses…

As I’m sure many of you know, in order to receive a handicap mark, a horse needs to have run 3 time (normally in maidens) or won a race… It is reasonable to expect an inexperienced horse to improve with each outing, so a horse about to embark on it’s third outing, always sets a poser… Will it improve on it’s second run (which might well give it a good chance of winning the race) – or will it be ‘held back’ to ensure a decent handicap mark. Guessing what will happen in these situations is always fun, as the market goes through cycles of bluff, counter bluff and double bluff ! My edge in these races, is invariably calling those bluffs !!! (which is where being able to read the market and knowing your trainers, comes in)…

In this particular Irish maiden hurdle, there was a twice raced runner from a well known Irish gambling stable (I won’t name the stable, as I’m not sure what the position is with regard to liable !). However, this stable is renown for it’s ‘inspired’ gambles on unexposed horses. Personally, I always leave runners from the stable alone – you win some, you lose some – but without inside knowledge I don’t think you would stand a chance in the long run.
Anyway, this was a typical runner from the stable in a maiden – it had shown absolutely nothing in it’s first two runs. Despite this, the opening Betfair show was suitably cautious, but the horse quickly drifted to triple figures (on the assumption that it was having it’s third run to get a handicap mark).
However, money then started to come for the horse and it’s price collapsed. Every price down from 120 to 5 was taken prior to the market being formed on course. Sometimes a drift occurs at this point – but not on this horse… It just got stronger and stronger, eventually going off at 3.4 !
During the race, it was settled out of the back (again, not unusual for fancied horses in Irish maiden hurdles). Just after half way, it started to make ground on the bridle. Jumping the third last it was clearly cantering all over the field – and I watched the price on Betfair expecting it to go odds on… But it didn’t instead, thousands upon thousands appeared on the ‘back’ side at 2. The IR players obviously thought Christmas had come early and kept swallowing it up – but the cash kept reappearing. I should point out that all of this happened in about a 20 second period between the third and second last.
And then, the horse hit the second last and in a stride, went from cantering to toiling ! It eventually finished an unplaced sixth or seventh.
I could only sit back and admire what I had witnessed. The most perfectly executed coup. Not only had thousand been made by someone backing the horse in triple figures and laying it off at 2 – but the handicap mark had been preserved for another day – Genius !!!

I wasn’t quite so impressed by my second example (but then, I had money on this one, unlike the first !).
The horse in question was running in a 2 year old maiden at Sandown. Again, I won’t reveal the name of the trainer – but it was from a medium sized Lambourn yard. The horse had made a very promising debut – but then was an unplaced favourite second time out (on possibly unsuitable ground). The RP had forecast it’s price at 14-1 – so I thought 30 would be feasible on Betfair. I was a little surprised to get matched at 80 – but even more amazed as I watched it drift pre-race to the point where I got my final bet matched – 400 !!! I then watched the race and couldn’t believe what I saw. To my eyes, the jockey took a pull the whole way round and the horse finished a never nearer seventh. I wrote to Graeme the following day to tell him about it – but I also made a note of the horse in question.
A fortnight later, it reappeared in a nursery at Salisbury. It opened on Betfair at a seemingly ungenerous 16 (spotlight did not give it a favourable mention in his preview) – but it was tight in the market all day, eventually going off around 12. In the race itself, it travelled prominently and well, taking up the running a couple of furlongs out to score by a cosy 2 lengths…

The thing is, these kind of things happen every day of the week. Furthermore, the coverage by RUK and ATR and the transparency of the betting exchanges, mean they are visible to each and every one of us. The tricky bit is being able to interpret what you see and use it to your advantage…

On a different matter: as tomorrow will be my last blog post, I was hoping to be able to post analysis on a couple of the races (I feel more comfortable with this now that you have an idea of how my betting mind works !). However, I’ve had a quick look at tomorrow’s cards and no races stand out as obvious candidates. That said, if I do find anything tonight, I will post my thoughts on the blog either this evening or tomorrow morning…

That’s a bit more like it !

2008-08-28T19:03:00.002+01:00

If only I’d realised that all I had to do was ask for some critical feedback and the comments would roll in – LOL !
Seriously, thanks again to everyone who took the time to comment – as Graeme has said many times in the past, it’s the ‘banter’ that really makes the blog. I also happen to think it is extremely useful – a monologue might be good for the ego, but the learning opportunities are severely limited…!!

Talking of which, I have mentioned a few times lately, how I have picked up valuable snippets of information from the blog over the past months, which I’ve used to improve or consolidate my performance…

An example of this was a comment made by Matt last week, in response to a short priced winner that Graeme had put up for the tipping competition.
I’m not quoting exactly, but it was along the lines that there was virtually no difference between tipping a horse at 5-4 when it should be evens; and 20-1 when it should be 10-1.

My instinctive reaction to this was that it was nonsense and that I should just disregard – but as with one or two other posters on this blog, Matt has built up some credibility in my mind, so I felt I should give it a little thought… and low and behold I eventually got what he was saying…!

If the percentage chances are accurate, then a 5-4 shot has a 44.4% chance of winning a race whilst an even money chance has a 50% chance (ie. just over 5% difference); similarly, a 20-1 shot has just under 5% chance, whilst a 10-1 shot has just under 10% chance (again, around a 5% difference !).

To be honest, once this particular penny had dropped with me, I felt that my ability to pick 25-1 winners that should be 10-1, wasn’t really the achievement it sounded like ! Surely it would just as easy – if not easier – to pick 5-4 winners that should be even money shots, and the returns over time would be the same…
So I thought for a little longer…

Personally, I wouldn’t have a clue whether a short priced favourite should be 5-4 or even money. I can just about tell if a horse is 6-4 and it should be 1-2 (like Levera !) – but that’s about it… Therefore, I would have absolutely no confidence in my ability to pick out overpriced runners at this kind of price…

20-1 shots that should be 10-1 is a completely different matter however… These stand out to me like beacons. I would have total confidence that I could spot a true 10-1 chance trading at 20-1…

And I guess that’s why there are so many methods around and why individuals should only use methods that they personally feel comfortable with, tweaking as they go along...
However, challenging my method with Matt’s logic (an angle I would never have considered myself), was an extremely worthwhile exercise for me to undertake and one that wouldn’t have happened without the blog - and it’s comments…!

Value Betting - Finding that hidden edge...

2008-08-27T23:07:00.002+01:00

Well my last post didn’t get quite the number of comments I was hoping for – something I’m sure Graeme will point out to me on his return !! LOL

Having tried my best to start a debate on value betting, it’s difficult for me to know where I went wrong… Maybe I went into too much detail; maybe I didn’t go into enough; maybe my ‘style’ turned people off; or maybe it was just the content (I know that most of Graeme’s readers are traders – but what I know about trading can be written on the back of a postage stamp !). If nothing else, I would appreciate an idea of why people didn’t comment on the last post – if only so that I can adjust things accordingly, if I ever decide to do a blog of my own…

Anyway, thanks to Maggie and Markomar for their comments, and I will soldier on along my path until Graeme returns…

My particular method of value betting, sees me worrying less about specific races and more about trends. There are two areas in particular, which I focus on in order to achieve this: the Betfair market and trainers…

With regard to the Betfair market; I pay particular attention to prices available on particular horses and the weight of money waiting to back/lay at various times during the day. There are clearly key times during the day, for each race market on Betfair: the lead up to prices being available with bookmakers (normally around 9:00); the hour or so prior to the off of a race (presumably when some book balancing takes place) and the 10 minutes immediately before the off (when the on course markets are formed). Key indicators are given out at the each of these times – the tricky part is being able to interpret them…

With regard to trainers: There are particular racehorse trainers, whose horses I will never bet. This is because, if a horse of theirs is going to win (or at least run well), it will be backed; if it is not going to run so well, it will not be backed… (this doesn’t sit well with my ‘value’ philosophy !)
I have found the yard of Peter Chappel Hyam’s to be particularly transparent in this respect – but the same is true of a number of the Newmarket yards (I tend to avoid many of the Northern yards because I suspect it is rife here also).
Conversely, there are other yards, whose horses I will back if I fancy their runner, even slightly. Historically, my favourite yard has been that of Geoff Wragg – but that now seems in terminal decline, so I have switched my prime allegiance to John Dunlop.
I’m sure it is no coincidence that both of these trainers are well established ‘old school’ – the sort who don’t need to land a touch in order to keep the yard going…!

The key thing to note with both the Betfair market and following specific trainers is that once you start to understand how they work, you can pick up clues which the average punter will not see. In the search for value, well masked clues are gold dust…

Value Betting - Embrace the uncertainty !!

2008-08-26T21:39:00.003+01:00

As I said in my previous post, in races where all of the runners have form in the book, the market is likely to accurately reflect each runners chance of winning.
My solution to this is to back primarily in races where the form is not in the book, use my knowledge and judgement - and ‘embrace the uncertainty’ !!

Method 1 – The false priced favourite

My first method for value betting is to find a race where there is a false priced favourite and oppose it. Punters in general so want to back a winner, that many favourites are backed down to a price which grossly overstates their chances of winning, When this happens, there is value to be had elsewhere. Whilst an option is simply to lay the favourite – my preferred route is to select one or two against it…
An example of this kind of bet would be Centennial on Saturday. Patkai was the false priced favourite. He had shown enormous in winning a group 3 race, over half a mile further… But that was why he was a false priced favourite ‘potential’, ‘group 3’, and ‘half a mile further’. Centennial meanwhile, had been running in group 1 races over the same trip as Saturday’s race. He was the solid selection, yet I got matched at 18 on Betfair, whilst Patkai returned at 8-11.

Method 2 – The underrated performer

This is similar to method one – but works at the other end of the market…
In conditions races in particular, if a horse appears not good enough – or held on previous running - punters will often just write off it’s chances. As I said in my original value post, I am of the belief that any horse can win a particular race – especially as in reality, most trainers would be unlikely to run a horse if they felt it had no chance of winning. Therefore, when I see a horse trading at a huge price, because it doesn’t appear to be quite good enough, I get ready to play…
Examples of such horses were Supersonic Dave on Saturday and Big Robert on Monday. Taking Big Robert: he had just 3lbs to make up on the eventual winner, Many Volumes, on official ratings. Despite this, I managed to back him during the day at 70 on Betfair. His price never made it down to the level I expected (20-30) – but I did exit most of the bet at 44 – leaving a sizeable risk free profit if he had managed to bridge the gap with Many Volumes…

Method 3 - The ‘live’ maiden

In my experience, about 50% of all maiden races (flat and jumps) can be narrowed down to 5 or 6 runners and these runners will win over 95% of the time. Most of these will be at the top of the market – but not all of them….
My method is to find the horse in the race that has a chance but is at a massive price.
There is invariably one – it’s just a question of finding it. This is without doubt, my most successful method. Every 10 or so races, I get the winner – and whilst they are not all returned at 240 ! – 100 plus is not uncommon. The biggest issue I have is getting my stake on (as I mentioned, I could only get £1:83 matched on the 240 winner).
An example of such horses were the 2 that I selected for the maidens in Ireland on Sunday. I didn’t actually back one because it’s price was too short (this method is completely price driven – I back whatever the market ‘tells’ me to !). However I was matched at 60 on the other one and it finished a relatively close up fourth…

Method 4 – The drifter

If I was to ditch one method – this would be the one ! (after writing this, maybe I should !). Often I look at a race and whilst I quite fancy a horse, I feel its price doesn’t quite represent value… Sometimes, despite this, the price of the horse will actually contract – but other times, it lengthens… When this happens, my ‘value’ instincts kick in and I have to back it ! Furthermore, if it continues to drift, I will back it again and again and again ! I don’t get into many holes with my gambling – but this method accounts for just about all of them ! Worse still, knowing that I’m backing a drifter, I am invariably overly keen to exit the bet. So if it does run well, my profits aren’t what they should be –and if it doesn’t…!
An example of this kind of a horse was Linda Green on Sunday. As I mentioned, it was priced up at 12-1 all day – which I thought was a fair representation of it’s chances. Therefore, when I saw it at 20, 5 minutes before the off, the ‘value’ bells started ringing ! At 28 the noise was deafening ! Yet despite this, I got out of most of the bet far too early – and made only a reasonable profit…

Method 5 – The dark horse

This method involves backing the unknown horse in the field – the one who is different – who could be anything and is likely to finish first or last !
This method would see you backing foreign horses or horses running over markedly different trips to normal or novices competing in championship events…
Invariably, the odds on such horses are significantly bigger than they should be.
An example of such a horse (although admittedly not a particularly good one !) was Classic Remark on Sunday. It was from a small-ish stable running in a big race in France. A better example would probably be Kingsgate Native in last years Nunthorpe.

So there you have it – my value methods laid bare ! Hopefully, they will provoke some comments… I would be particularly interested in peoples thoughts on how I should deal with ‘the drifter’ (as this is the one I think I need to tame !) – but comments/questions/thoughts on any of the methods, will be most welcome (my target is to get more comments on this post than Graeme has had on any of his posts – don’t let me down !)

Value Betting - The Framework

2008-08-26T20:27:00.001+01:00

As Markomar said in his comment on my last post: you will only get value if you identify something that has not been factored in to the price…
Graeme would have few peers when it comes to solving a competitive handicap – but whether his selection represents value, is out of his hands. A number of the big tipping lines seem to employ similar methods to Graeme for picking horses and once they have made public their views, the chance of getting a decent price has gone. Consequently, not only does Graeme have to resolve the riddle of a race – he also has to try and find an angle that will not be picked up by many others – a tricky job, made even more difficult…
I use to specialise in high class races. But similarly, these races are analysed and picked over to such an extent, that getting a value price on a selection, is nearly impossible.
If you bet in either of these situations, you have to be extremely accurate with your race reading, as the long term profit margins are extremely tight…

I’m a big fan of Tom Segal and he was bemoaning this very fact in his column in the Weekender a couple of weeks ago. If Pricewise doesn’t think there is value to be had any more - what chance have the rest of us got…!

Despite the difficulties - I still maintain that the vast majority of my bet are ‘value’ bets (I intend for them all to be value bets – but I have to admit that the occasional duff one gets through the net !).
In reality, I don’t have one method - I have a number. These have evolved to suit the type of racing I like to watch and the times that I am available to bet.
However, the bottom line is, that for every 10 bets I place; on average, 1 will win and 1 will trade around even money. This coupled with the fact that the odds of my average selection is 25-1, sees me comfortably in profit in the long run.
However, an average strike rate of 1 in 10 does mean that losing streaks of 20, 30 or even 40 aren’t that uncommon ! Whilst I have the belief to over-come these, they can affect judgement a little. Consequently, I place a low IR lay on all of my selections (around even money) which results in me winning approximately the same amount whether my horse wins or nearly wins… I refer to this as ‘smoothing out the luck curve’ ! It helps keep me sane when my horses are getting pipped on the post; just failing to get up or falling at the last…!

So, onto the methods I employ. The 10 or so ‘selections’ that I published on Saturday, Sunday and Monday were a fair representation of the kind of horses I back (with the exception of Coastal Path and Levera). I will therefore explain each of my methods, using these horses as examples. Therefore, if you haven’t read my previous posts or have forgotten the detail, now would be a good time to go and refresh yourselves, whilst I compose the next post…!!!

Value Betting - The Fundamentals

2008-08-25T22:14:00.001+01:00

I’ve noticed over the past few weeks, how the term ‘value’ in relation to prices, has been cropping up with increasing frequency in Graeme’s blog posts. As I mentioned in my introduction, I became a ‘value’ disciple many years ago, so it seemed an appropriate subject for me to raise during my week in the chair…

I intend to do a few posts on ‘value’. This is the first of them and the point of it, is simply to set the scene by defining what I view as ‘value’ and what constitutes a ‘value’ bet. In subsequent posts, I will attempt to illustrate how I find value when betting…

I think that to truly get your head around value, you have to accept two things:

Firstly, that any runner can win a particular race. Now I acknowledge that the chances of certain horses winning certain races are slim to the point of being almost non-existent – but the key point is, they are not non-existent… True, on occasions, it may take a freak accident; an act of god or a shocking ride ! – but even all of these things happen (particularly the last one !), and consequently any horse could in theory, win any race it competes in…

Secondly, you must also accept that if you ran the same race over and over again, you would get different winners… Not a different winner every time – but non-the–less, the same horse would not always win the race. If you struggle with this idea, just think of the number of races in which the first 5 or 6 finish within a length of each other. The difference between victory and defeat is likely to be missing the break, not making a move at the right moment; meeting with interference… If the race was re-run, all of these things would change, so a different result is highly likely, when the runners are so closely matched.

If you can accept these two things ie. that no race is completely predictable in advance, then you should be able to buy into the concept of value betting…

Put simply, a value bet is one where the odds you take on a selection are greater than the percentage chance of it wining a particular race. Therefore if you take even money on a horse with a 60% chance of winning a race – you have value: Similarly, if you take 20-1 on a horse with a 10% chance of winning you again have value: even if you take 1000-1 on a horse with a 1% chance, it’s a value bet !

The really tricky bit however, is establishing in advance, what percentage chance a particular horse has of winning a particular race. This is where skill and judgement are required. There are literally hundreds of factors that need to be taken in to consideration when assessing the chances of a horse in a particular race: going; distance; jockey; fitness; draw, pace… the list goes on and on.

The races where the most of these factors are known, are the types of races in which Graeme specialises (ie all age handicaps). These are the races where it is possible in advance, to most accurately predict the likelihood of each of the runner winning. However, whilst assessing such races accurately is not an easy thing to do, Graeme is not the only person to have mastered it. Consequently, horses such as Golden Prospect and Icannshift trade at odds which, to the casual observer, appear far lower than they should be. In truth, there is no value in backing this kind of horse, at the odds generally available, as the market invariably accurately reflects their chances of winning…

Best laid plans....

2008-08-25T18:58:00.004+01:00

A quick review of today’s races…

Well the conditions race at Kempton didn’t turn out to be the burn up that I predicted. As the guy on RUK said when referring to the possible pace issue ‘these jockeys aren’t stupid’ – I’m sure that’s true of at least some of them…!
Jimmy Fortune evidently decided that today was the day that Kandidate would lose his unbeaten record around Kempton, as he chose to reign the horse back and force it to race in a manner that it clearly didn’t appreciate. IMO, Frankie is probably the best tactician riding on the flat, so if he decided that Gravitas didn’t need to race prominently, I’m not going to argue with that. As a result, Hearthstead Maison got an uncontested lead at a leisurely pace – and as a consequence, would probably have won if he’d been good enough. As it turned out, he wasn’t and the class and pace of Many Volumes won the day. The lack of a searching gallop didn’t do Dansant any favours and he could only stay on into fourth. Similarly, the race wasn’t run to give Big Robert the best chance and fifth was probably a reflection of his ability.
Meanwhile, poor Kandidate trailed in last, and will be worth considering next time if the market reacts negatively to what appears to be another poor run – but in reality was probably an injudicious ride (though in fairness to Jimmy Fortune, deciding on tactics when there are multiple front runners, can’t be easy)…

Over at Huntingdon, Levara was amazingly available at 6-4 on Betfair 5 minutes before the off. I was extremely tempted to play as I felt the horse should have been around about a 1-2 shot. I didn’t – and I’m glad I didn’t, as I know I would have subsequently regretted it (even though he won !). In the race itself, Levera tavelled well and jumped economically (for a hurdling debutant). In fairness, he did come under some pressure approaching the second last, but when you’ve run the earlier part of the race at a speed similar to that which you normally canter down to the start, racing for a couple of furlongs is probably quite a nice thing to do !

Race of the Day

2008-08-25T13:48:00.005+01:00

Although I said I probably wouldn’t analyse any more during my tenure, that was due mainly, to the fact that I didn’t anticipate any suitable races being run before Graeme’s return (apart from on Saturday maybe).
However, on scanning through the cards this morning, I was pleasantly surprised to find one of my kind of races being run at Kempton: the conditions race at 4:30.
This is a tight looking little race, with only a few pounds between all of the runners on official ratings. The big thing that strikes me about the race is that it’s likely to be run at a ferocious pace. Kandidate, Hearthsted Maison and Gravitas all like to lead. Unless two of them are prepared to ease off, all 3 could ending up compromising their chances by getting into a battle for the lead. However if they do back off, they won’t be playing to their strengths, so I will draw a line through all 3.
That just leaves, Dansant, Many Volumes and Big Robert. The winner is most likely to be one of the first two, with my preference being Dansant (due to the fact that he seems to have a little more stamina and has proved himself well suited to the AW terrain). Odds around 5-2 would seem fair…
However, the bet in the race at 60 on Betfair (50-1 with the bookies) has to be Big Robert. As I’ve said, the race should be run to suit him and he’s only a few pounds off Dansant and Many Volumes on official ratings. Sure, he’s not been in the best of form this year (though a good run was anticipated at Ascot on his penultimate start) and he’s unproven on the surface – but at 50-1 he’s not going to be bomb-proof ! IMO, he is a ‘value’ bet though…

As I mentioned yesterday, I never back odds on (I actually can’t recall ever backing below 3-1!) – but if I did, I would be sorely tempted by Levera in the 3:40 at Huntingdon. Not many 100+ rated flat horses make it onto the jumps. There are only 2 doubts: his ability to stay the trip (in reality, this probably won’t be put to the test) and his ability to jump (I can’t believe that Alan King won’t have him well schooled and he’s not likely to be put under pressure). Those 2 doubts are no where near sufficient to justify a price of even money – if I did bet at those kind of odds, I would lump on !!!

Thank goodness that’s over…!

2008-08-24T20:31:00.001+01:00

I refer both to the worst Sunday’s racing in a good while – and the tipping competition…

Sunday tends to be my favourite days racing of the week. Domestically, it’s often not great – but the Irish invariably save the day. Not today however !!
What a shame that the weather which has resulted in the abandonment of the last ever meeting at Tralee , couldn’t have wiped out today’s dire cards at Cork and Ballinrobe instead.. It’s poor day (or Arc Sunday !) when the best racing is provided by the French…!

With regard to the tipping competition: then any tipping competition that last just 7 days, is bound to be won by the luckiest punter around – and for all our strengths (sic) Graeme and I would never claim to be lucky !!

I’ll do a quick review of today’s selections – but in truth, they barely warrant that:
The rain at Goodwood resulted in every selection bar 1 being a non-runner ! The only one that did run was Janina. I found this a little surprising as she had performed poorly on the soft before and I’m sure she has been scratched from recent races when the ground has turned soft. Maybe connections just decided to get a run into her - and should could be worth another go on better ground…
Over in Ireland, my 2 selections both finished fourth. Although I saw them both as 20-1 ish shots, I got matched on one at 60 on BF: whilst the other never traded below 11 (6-1 SP), so I didn’t back it. The 60 shot ran the better race – but was facing tough competition.
The only race I really got involved in today was the 2:45 at Deauville. I fancied both Classic Remark (at a price) and Muthabara… Amazingly, in the 5 mins leading to the off, I was able to continually back Classic Remark at close to 40 and lay around 14 ! Similarly, Muthabara was available to back around 7.6 and lay around 5.5 ! It never fails to amaze me how volatile these weak markets are. Unfortunately, neither horse ultimately proved good enough, so I had to take a loss on the race.
More surprising was the defeat of Coastal Path in the 3:45 by a horse who he had beaten 9 lengths on his penultimate start (over the same trip and on the same ground). It reminded me why I never back at odds on - or indeed below 3-1 (not that I needed reminding !). As the old cliché goes, they are not machines…

I was intending calling it a day at that point – as bad racing was just about to get even worse. But the runners for the final race at Goodwood caught my eye - or more specifically, one of the runners: Linda Green…

As you are probably aware, Graeme’s mantra, is that if you back a well handicapped horse when it encounters ideal conditions, it will invariable win (or at least run well). To be honest, although this sounds easy to do, finding these horses normally takes far more effort than I am prepared to put in. However, when Graeme identifies such a horse, I normally make a mental note of it…
Linda Green was identified by Graeme, as such a horse earlier in the year. Much to my amusement, it proceed to repeatedly run like a hairy goat, and then popped up twice in a week at Windsor during one of Graeme’s self imposed sabbaticals ! It has lost twice since then – but today, was running of a mark 3lbs lower than it’s last run. Graeme also maintains that you should follow a well handicapped horse until it ceases to be well handicapped. Linda Green had won in the past off a much higher mark than it was running off today. I checked out it’s price this morning – but at 12-1 is seemed to be priced correctly. 5 minutes before the off, at 20 on BF, it seemed overpriced - so I jumped in. I was really surprised to then see it drift to 28 (where I got my final bet matched ). I layed off almost half of my stake immediately IR at 21. The remainder, I carried through the race until the final furlong, when half of my potential winnings were matched by a lay at 2.4, to give me a profit which just about off-set the loses incurred earlier in the day.
I’m not sure how they say ‘Cheers Mate’ in Spanish – but ‘Cheers Mate’ !!

Onto tomorrow: I don’t intend to post any more tips, now that the competition has finished. Instead I will raise my first subject for serious debate: ‘Value Betting’. I’ve not actually decided what I’m going to write yet - but I’m sure it will be a riveting read, so make sure check out the blog tomorrow and let me have your thoughts on the subject…

Champion Tipster Day 7

2008-08-24T08:16:00.001+01:00

Final day of the Champion Tipster competition and I just need a 25-1 winner to take the title on Graeme’s behalf… No pressure then !
I feel like an athlete on the last leg of the 4X400m relay, handed the baton 50m behind the leader – here’s hoping for a Kriss Akabusi moment !

Yesterday there was a feast of quality action; today whilst there is no famine, it’s like having dinner at Mcdonalds, when you’ve lunched at a Michelin starred restaurant !

Still, I’ve got to work with what’s available – and a 25-1 winner is a 25-1 winner wherever it’s running and whatever the class of the race…

That said, I’m struggling a bit to find suitable fancies… I’ve discarded the Yarmouth and Beverly cards, because they do nothing for me (ironically, Graeme would have probably lapped them up !). Instinctively, I turn to the Irish racing in times of need (I realise this is unusual – but it works for me !) however, it’s always very difficult to predict the market (more difficult I find, than predicting the winners), so I’ll have to rely on Goodwood (where there are a couple of decent races) – and Deauville (I’m not sure if the competition permits this – but I’ll submit my selection and argue about it when it’s won !).

So, after much deliberation my selections for today are:

Deauville 2:45 Classic Remark
Goodwood 2:45 Lady Acquitane

For those of you who are interested, I will explain the rationale behind my selections.

The first thing to bear in mind is that I need a big priced winner. To be honest, it’s not that easy to find a runner that will be returned with a big SP and that has a chance – hence the first selection…
I watched Classic Remark the last time it ran (in the Nassau stakes at Glorious Goodwood). It ran an absolute blinder, to finish sixth (just behind Muthabara). The thing about Classic Remark, is that it’s from an unfashionable stable and running in a foreign country. Consequently, it will almost certainly go off a bigger price than it’s form warrants. In theory, it shouldn’t beat Muthabara – but it was less than a length behind and is less exposed. If it wins, I’m sure it will pay greater than 25-1 on the PMU…
Incidentally, whilst on the subject of Deauville, I think Coastal Path is an absolute cert in the 3:45. I never bet odds on myself (and it will probably be odds on) but before the Ascot Gold cup, I’d read that it was considered unbeatable; and it travelled like a class horse during the race. It just didn’t get home. Over half a mile less, it should outclass the opposition…

My second selection is Lady Acquitane. I feel that either this or Janina will win this race. The Problem with Janina, is that if it wins, it will be backed – and I need big odds ! I’ve followed lady Acquitaine for it’s last couple of runs and it looked to me as if it was returning to form last time out. A drop in trip could be just what’s required and hopefully it will be returned around the required 25-1..
Also at Goodwood, I like the look of Regal Best in the first and Icon Project in the 3:20. I’m of the opinion that Icon Project is a class above the opposition it faces today – only the weight that it has to carry, worries me. Hopefully this won’t prove an insurmountable burden…

For completeness, I did take a look at the Irish racing and would suggest Celtic Soprano in the first at Ballinrobe and Cul a Dun in the 3:20 at Cork. I think both could outrun their odds – but I’m not confident that either will be returned at the required 25-1 (though this may well be available on Betfair).

Review of the afternoon...

2008-08-23T19:58:00.003+01:00

With my third post in the last 24 hours, there’s a danger of my output being as prolific as Graeme’s – however, as I’ve only got to keep it up for 7 days, I should be able to avoid verbal burnt out !

So, onto this afternoon’s action: bottom line – Graeme’s chances of winning the tipping competition receded a little further – but it wasn’t for the want of trying and with a bit of luck it could have been quite different…

Even if I say so myself (I was actually hoping that one of my readers would do this for me, so I wouldn’t have to !), I read the 2 Goodwood races near perfectly… Only 2 horses mentioned in both races and they finished first and second – a good way clear of the third. If Petara Bay’s stamina hadn’t given out in the closing stages, they really would have been perfect calls. Needless to say, I didn’t make anywhere as much from the races as I should have (as is invariable the case) – but I did turn it a bit of a profit…

I also read Balthazaar Gift’s race at Newmarket pretty well. Winker Watson didn’t perform and Balthazaar traded at 2.3 IR – but didn’t quite get there. I did look closely at the winner his morning – but just didn’t think it good enough…

The other 3 races weren’t quite as good:
Sophocles ran OK in Ireland but was simply outclassed. I was surprised to see it at such a short price and actually ended up backing Ballyhaunis in the race (as it has finished ahead of Sophocles two races ago). It ran a reasonable race to finish third, but was also not match for the winner.
Cat Junior also ran OK (though faded to finish last). The most notable thing about this race was Betfair’s failure to open the IR market. This probably cost me a few pounds (I invariably look to lay in Running and Cat Junior travelled prominently and reasonably well) – but I’m sure it cost others significantly more… I guess it’s a risk you take if you bet prior the off with a view to greening up IR…
Finally, Supersonic Dave ran a reasonable race to finish a staying on fourth , looking (somewhat ironically) like he needed a stiffer test of stamina…

So, in summary, from 6 selections, I managed a 12-1 winner, two seconds at 6-1 and 12-1, a 12-1 fourth and two unplaced. Not too bad…

However, the high-light of the afternoon for me, was the first race at Tralee. A maiden hurdle in which I managed to get £1:83 matched on the winner at odds of 240, moments before the off ! (this is the second highest priced winner I’ve ever backed !) Unfortunately, I layed off quite a big chunk, to guarantee at least £70 profit whatever the result – but I still ended up winning £130 on the race, which was a cause for moderate celebration ! Interestingly the winner’s SP was just 25-1 (though it would have been good enough for Graeme if I’d selected It for the comp !).

Just so you are all aware, I don’t intend to analyse races and post selections every day. It’s simply that I needed to go through the process for Graeme’s competitions entries, so I thought I would share my analysis on here. I may do the same tomorrow (as it’s the last day of the comp) – but from there on in, I will intend to raise more cerebral matters for debate (unless the masses demand otherwise !)

Champion Tipster Day 6

2008-08-23T10:26:00.001+01:00

Well Graeme has left me in the unenviable position of trying to close a 20 point gap on the leader in 4 selections.

This means that I’ve either got to bag four 5-1 winners – or one 20-1 winner, in the next 2 days. As you’ll probably come to realise, with my mind–set, this really should be a no-brainer - so I’ve been doing my best to find that 20-1 winner (or bigger, if possible) !

Unlike Graeme, I have virtually no interest in handicaps. I’ve never had the quality of time required to dedicate to unravelling a 20 runner sprint handicap. Instead, I focus on conditions races: this generally means either group/listed races (on the flat) or maidens.

My interest in the racing means that I store sufficient information to be able to process and form an opinion on a group/listed race in a couple of minutes. Therefore, with races like today’s Juddmonte, I have a view on which horses I would be interested in and at what prices, almost as soon as I see the runners. The problem with these kind of races however, is that lots of other people are familiar with the runners and consequently, the prices on offer tend to be a fair reflection of a particular horses chance of winning.

Maidens, however, are a completely different ball game… There is rarely much form in the book and consequently, a lot of speculation and judgement is required. For these races, I use the knowledge and experience I’ve built up over the past 30 years. In reality, nowadays, these tend to be the races where I find the 20-1 winners…

This said, today being a Saturday, there are far more group/listed races to look at than suitable maidens. Also, with maidens, it is really difficult to judge in advance of the off, what price a particular horse will start at. Consequently, today, I have looked at a few group/listed races and made my selections from them:

Goodwood 2:10

This race revolves around favourite Patkai. The question is whether he will be as effective at 1m4f as he was at 2m – and also, to a lesser extent, whether his 2m form is as good as it appears.
Of the opposition, Scintillo doesn’t really look good enough, whilst Meydan City has a lot to prove. Therefore, I think the 2 to concentrate on are Top Lock and Centennial.
These 2 met earlier in the season at Sandown and Centenial came out on top by 3 lengths. A fair bit of water has gone under the bridge since then: Top Lock appears to have improved, whilst this doesn’t appear to have been the case with Centenial. However, Centenial is now double the price of Top Lock, who has 3 lengths to make up with him of that piece of form. For those reasons, and the doubt over Patkai, Centenial has to be the bet at around 11-1.

Goodwood 2:45

The horse that catches my eye in this race is Petara Bay. Petara Bay is not quite top class over 1m4f - so presumably connections are stepping him up in distance in the hope he can bridge that gap (and make races like the Irish St. Leger, future options for him). The opposition doesn’t look that strong, with Tungsten Strike looking the toughest opponent. However, Tungsten Strike needs firm ground to be at his best (as well as an uncontested lead). If Petara Bay’s stamina holds out, he should have too much class and at 6-1, rates a fair bet.

Newmarket 3:05

The betting suggests that Winker Watson is the horse to beat here and whilst he undoubtedly has ability/potential, I’m not so sure… One reading of his last race form is that he finished fourth in the Group 1 Sussex stakes – another reading is that he only beat 2 home (his out of form stable mate and a pacemaker). He was off for a long time after last year’s July cup and imo has not proved himself fully since his return.
At the price, I’m happy to swerve him and go instead for Balthazaars Gift. In truth, this horse wouldn’t have a lot of ground to make up on a peak form Winker Watson, so at 12-1 he’s definitely a value call.

Newmarket 3:35

Through Henrythenavigator, Cat Junior is about 3 lengths inferior to New Approach. When he finished fourth behind Henry in the St.James Palace stakes, Cat Junior was running for only the third time in his life. He would therefore appear to have scope for improvement (which seemed to be borne out by his subsequent run in France behind Tamayuz). Add to this the fact that his trainer, Brian Meehan, believes he will be a better horse over 10 furlongs than he is over 8 and you have a good bet to beat New Approach. Defeating Duke of Marmalade my be a different matter (unless you take his form line with Papal Bull literally !) – but at odds of 50-1, he’s worth a speculative punt (EW or place only for the faint hearted !)

Curragh 2:30

The going is likely to be hock deep at the Curragh. One horse that will relish this is Sophocles. He ran second in the Cheltenham Champion bumper, the year before last and showed that he’s transferred a fair amount of that ability to the flat, with a very comfortable win last time. The opposition today is not that strong and he’s still got improvement in him. At 7-1 he’s a good bet.

Windsor 6:20

There are a couple of cracking races at Windsor this evening: this race and the 6:50. For a ‘value’ bet, I’m plumping for Supersonic Dave in this race. The horse is reasonably unexposed and an experiment to try him at longer trips the last twice hasn’t really worked. He’s dropped back in distance today and in the hope that he can pick up from his first run of the campaign (behind McArthur at Chester) he’s the selection at 16-1.

Deciding which horses to use for the competition has been tricky. My best bet from the above is probably Sophocles in Ireland – but even a win from him will not see Graeme making it to the top of the leader board. However, I will stick with that one (as I’ve still got tomorrow !) but also take Cat Junior. If this wins, it’s sure to be at a big enough price – and I’ve certainly seen stranger results over the years…!

The selections are therefore:

Cat Junior 3:35 Newmarket
Sophocles 2:30 Curragh

Introduction !

2008-08-22T23:01:00.004+01:00

As regular readers will know, Graeme is flying off to the sun tomorrow morning and rather than leave his blog gathering dust, he asked me if I fancied stepping in to the breach and keeping it going, in his absence…

Whilst fully aware of his ulterior motive (he’s trying to break national records with his blog count !) I decided that there was little harm giving it a go – and so here I am…!

Firstly, an introduction: My name is Andrew Rigby and I live in a village just outside Loughborough in north Leicestershire. My hobby/interest/passion, for most of my adult life (and a bit before that !) is horse racing.

My first racing memory is of Comedy of Errors winning the champion hurdle in 1975; I also remember taking numerous Wednesday afternoons off school to watch the mid week ascot jumps meetings in the late seventies. However, I really got into the racing in the early eighties when Michael Dickinson was dominating the NH scene and the likes of Shergar, Posse and Time Charter, were stars on the flat…

During that time, I gambled a bit, just for fun. I had no particular edge, I just enjoyed trying to solve the puzzle of a race – and although winnings were not significant, neither were losses…

The first change in my gambling mentality came in the early 1990s, when I read a book called ‘value betting’ written by Mark Cotton, the founder of pricewise. I remember an almost ‘eureka’ type moment as the concept of value betting dawned on me. Since that point, ‘value’ has under-pinned every bet I’ve placed.

Despite feeling a greater degree of comfort in my betting, it still wasn’t particularly profitable. This was down to a combination of indiscipline and lack of time, a situation that continued until May 2006, when I ‘retired’ from work.
Although I was only 42 at the time, I was work weary. Trying to juggle the demands of 3 children (now 4 !) and the renovation of a house, in addition to work, saw something being short changed. As it was invariably work, I bit the bullet and resigned !

One side benefit of this was the fact that I could put more time into my racing. The prospect of earning from gambling, has always been quite appealing (due to the flexibility as well as the interest) and this provided me with an opportunity to see if would be feasible…
This said, gambling will always sit behind family responsibilities and (in theory !) house renovation – but it did provide me with an opportunity to focus on it more than ever before.

Up until February this year, I had made solid, if unspectacular progress along my path. Break evens, had become small winnings – and winnings were becoming more consistent.

In February, I ‘met’ Graeme (we’ve never actually met – but I’ve exchanged more notes with him than most of my lifelong friends !). My initial intention was simply to use my experience to help him clarify where he was going with his Experiment. However, an unexpected benefit of giving him my opinion of virtually everything was that it started to clarify my own thoughts – and as a consequence, my gambling performance improved considerably…

Small winnings, started to turn into quite big winnings and on a consistent basis. July was my most profitable gambling month ever. In truth, I still play with small stakes (but then again, so would you, if a fair number of your bets were placed with a screaming 3 month old child on your knee !) – and not all of my gambling is scalable. But, for the first time ever, I am starting to think I could make a living from this game…

As a mentioned earlier- my method/edge is simply ‘value’ betting and I will explain what I mean by ‘value’ in my next blog post…

Goodbye!

2008-08-22T21:13:00.001+01:00

Daily Loss £30

Disappointing to sign off with a loss before I go on holiday but I didn’t have much luck again today.

I managed to watch 3 races today and each one made me slightly annoyed.

In the big 1m5f Ebor-like race, Tropical Strait got an appalling run through and by the time he got out, the winner had flown. Annoyingly, the winner was one of them that was held by my other two on the complicated form lines but I did sort of know that it was a potential improver, so I could have maybe factored this in more. I’ll learn.....

Whatever way you look at it, a 2nd at 9/1 in a nightmare 20 runner handicap isn’t a bad shout but it doesn’t get me anywhere in the tipping comp. I backed this for £10 and had £5 win on the other two who didn’t run to form. That’s maybe slightly harsh as Formax was 6th and was held up in last place, so he came fast and late. Too late to matter though!

In the second race, I narrowed it down to 2 horses and for the 4th time this week, I’ve opted for the wrong horse. In 4 out of 8 races for the tipster comp, I’ve narrowed it down to 2 and selected the wrong horse every bloody time. 3 favourites have won and Space Pirate at 11/1, so it is a bit frustrating.

One of the hardest things in reading form is picking which form line is the strongest. I have managed to find the correct form line twice today and not backed the correct horse either time. This should have been easy here as there were only two on the form line and I picked the wrong one!

Gift Horse finished 5th which again reads as a never nearer 5th of 17 at 7/1 which isn’t a bad pick. You get nothing in this game for consistency I’m afraid!

The last race I saw today was when I got in and saw Gentle Guru absolutely hose up at 11/4. I couldn’t believe the price to be honest as it was odds on the other night when it beat Malapropism but it won even easier here under a penalty. Therefore, Mala had basically had no chance of beating it the other night and ran well to get as close to it as he did.

At the moment, I’m now sitting at £0 in the tipping comp after 8 selections which makes me smile. This is probably the least amount I could have won this week but when you think I haven’t done that well or had much luck, then to not make a loss shows that I’m doing something right.

Andrew has kindly agreed to look after the blog while I’m away so you don’t get too bored, so that should give you something to read in my absence! I’m sure he’d be keen on some feedback and comments to his posts, so don’t be shy……

I’ll be back on here a week on Monday 1st September reviewing any selections I may have given out as a tip that day, so I’ll look forward to that. If anyone still hasn’t dropped me an email yet to get on the distribution list, this week will be your last chance before the fun starts next month.

Champion Tipster Day 5

2008-08-22T10:14:00.004+01:00

Today's racing probably makes up for the shit racing all week but unfortunately, I won't see any of it as i'll be out getting things for my holiday I'm guessing.

I spent a fair bit of time last night on the two largest and most competitive handicaps run today, so below are my selections. I'm particularly sweet on Gift Horse today if it repeats its last few runs but it's a massive hold up horse who needs to slice through the field in the final furlong, so it needs a clean passage through to win.

Bet 1 - 3.25 Newbury Tropical Strait 12/1
Bet 2 - 4.10 Newmarket Gift Horse 7/1

3.25 Newb

1 – Will take a mammoth effort to win this off top weight and a rating of 110. Ground and trip OK but very few horses win handicaps off this sort of mark. Dismiss
2- Not beaten less than 22 lengths last 3 starts, so difficult to fancy here to be honest. Dismiss
3 – Amazing improver in handicaps but 4lbs higher than when 2nd last time. Trainer a master with this sort of horse and should run well but handicapped to the hilt and holds no secrets. Will run well but happy to take on. Dismiss.
4 – Been aimed at this all season. Was handicapper of the year two years back and struggled in group class last year. Much better this season in handicaps again this year and unlucky last time. Keep
5 – Can’t beat Young Mick on run 2 starts back and disappointed last time. Young enough to be improving but needs to bounce back from last run also. Dismiss
6 – Quirky and beaten miles last two starts on firm ground. However, previously won very easy on soft and on the a form line with the 3rd, probably has the beaten of the favourite (3). Keep
7 – Was favourite last time to win a tough race which included a few from here and was favourite for this race for a few months. Disapointed last time and can possibly be excused. Could be very well handicapped and only lost once in 4 runs. Keep
8 – Very closely weighted with 4 on run 2 starts back and can maybe excuse last run. Keep
9 – I’d be inclined to take this on here. Won 4 from 5 this season but trainer sees it as a pure stayer and needs a fast pace here to have a chance. Clearly on the upgrade and could be well handicapped but won last two over 2 miles. Drop in trip may see him caught for speed and first run on soft ground ever. Dismiss
10 – Beat 4 and a few others last time and is definitely still improving. Keep
11 – Definitely not got the handicap mark or the class to win this. Dismiss
12 – On OK mark and looks set for solid run but up against too many potential improvers here. Dismiss
13 – Massive doubt around trip. One start at greater than 1m 2f. Can’t back it. Dismiss
14 – Last two runs been very good and same mark here. Not got much to find with the principals to feature. Keep
15 – Not really improving and would need to step up a bit. Dismiss
16 – 4th last year in this but only 3 runs since and only one on flat. Well beaten last time though and needs a leap of faith. Dismiss
17 – A definite improver and last run was very, very impressive. Looked one to keep on the right side of and interesting it runs here. Keep
18 – Trainer is a magician but we’d need to guess about this one’s ability. Dismiss
19 – Won on debut this season but overall profile suggests it’s too high in the handicap to win this. Dismiss
20 – On a decent mark and capable of going close if he repeats recent runs. Keep

Appear to be left with 4,6,7,8,10,14,17,20.

One thing that’s amazing with this race is that there are at least 5 form lines containing multiple horses here. It’s nearly impossible to be honest to unpick them and lots are so closely matched. This is a difficult race to unpick.

I know that there could be a draw bias here, so I’ll try to use that to narrow these down. I also have the odds, we’ll look at these two combined to see if we can get anywhere.

No Draw Odds
4 2 7/1
6 17 12/1
7 15 10/1
8 16 33/1
10 14 11/1
14 9 33/1
17 6 12/1
20 8 25/1

The horses drawn high are on the outside at Newbury, so we are ideally looking for low drawn horses.

I’d be inclined to take on the 4 horses drawn 14-17 simply due to this fact. 3 of them are also fairly short, so I’ll dismiss these 4.

I obviously have 4 horses left now. These are 4,14,17 and 20.

Are there any clear form lines including these 4?

14 has 2 lengths to find with 4 with no weight turnaround from 27th July. However, it was hampered in running, so maybe less to find.

20 has 2 lengths to make up with 14 with no weight turnaround from 29th July. However, it was
badly hampered in running, so maybe less to find.

First conclusion is that 4 doesn’t have too much in hand and at odds of 7/1 here, I’d dismiss this one.

17 has no form lines with anything here as it’s stepping up in class after winning easily last time but it did look very impressive.

Left with 14,17 and 20. I’d be inclined to back all 3 at odds of 33/1,12/1 and 25/1.

I’ll take 17 as my selection for the tipster comp though.

4.10 Newmarket

This is a 17 runner handicap where two horses look so much better handicapped than the rest, it’s difficult to not just look at these two.

I saw the race they both ran last time and the favourite won really well and beat the other one by 4 lengths in 3rd. However, the 3rd was denied a clear run and I thought two things at the time.

Firstly, if Jamie Spencer was on that, he would have got much closer. Two, if he hadn’t been denied a clear run, he would have been beaten by 2 lengths max.

Amazingly, he has Spencer on board today which is an amazing coincidence but he really is the best jockey for exaggerated waiting tactics. He’s ridden it 3 times in 37 races and he’s fucked up on it twice before to be honest by waiting too long to make his move and then finding trouble and finishing full of running. Today, he won’t make the same mistake again hopefully!

He has a 6lb pull for 4 lengths beating but as I said, he really only got beaten by 2 lengths, so 6lbs would put him right next to the other one. Throw in Spencer and that puts it in his favour today.

Earlsmedic is priced at 5/2 and Gift Horse at 7/1 today. Guess which one I think we should back….

Gift Horse is the horse for me. Expect Spencer to ride this with the sort of exaggerated waiting tactics that we don’t see very often (even for him!). This may win on the bridle if he times it right IMO.

Obviously, the above analysis assumes that both horses run to form. If I’m right, they should finish first and second….

Interesting.....

2008-08-21T16:50:00.005+01:00

Today was interesting from the aspect that I had a winner and a horse which finished last!

The winner was well backed I saw and won well with a distance of 22 lengths back to the 3rd. I said it would win 1 in 2 and in a 2 horse race, I was probably spot on!

The second race was more interesting as I had the right form line (wasn’t too difficult to spot as the fav has won its previous 4 races!) but on my reading, it didn’t have much in hand of Tony The Tap. Taking into account Tony was more than twice the price, it was an obvious selection.

I was annoyed to see the favourite won but I was pleased in a way when I saw that Tony The Tap finished last. This sounds a bit strange but if Tony had finished in the top 6 and lost, I’d have been more annoyed.

Basically, 3 different form lines meant that Tony had the beating of 2 others in the race also. It had finished 4th of 11, 3rd of 13 and 5th of 20 on its last 3 starts and was never beaten more than a length. Hence, when it finishes last and well beaten, you need to hold up your hands and say “I give up!”. Ignore this run and back it next time.

Incidentally, a similar comment applies to Icannshift who I selected last night. This finished tailed off last beaten 27 lengths. On its last 3 starts, it was never beaten more than 3 lengths. Again, all you can say is “I give up!”.

I’m not being defeatist in any way but sometimes, you just have to accept that horses are not machines and if you are unlucky, you may stumble across one or two that run too bad to be true now and again. I’ve now had two of these in two days!!!

My other two were first and second though, so it’s not all doom and gloom….

There were 2 excellent comments from Steve and Matt today which deserve a decent reply.

One common theme on the blog and comments recently has been ‘value’. As you all know, I harp on and on about value and what it means to me. However, I think I’m starting to learn that I need to alter my way of thinking for next month.

One issue I have is that I never bet at odds on and I very rarely bet at low odds. Simply, this is because I only use small stakes to back and I don’t feel risking my small stakes to win a small amount is worth it in many cases. I know this is wrong and that the stake size shouldn’t matter as it is all relative but I’m not going to get too excited by backing a 5/4 winner with £10.

However, next month, (and even at the moment!), some of you may be backing my selections with higher stakes and therefore, a 5/4 winner is worth much more to you than I realise. Hence, if I see a horse at 5/4 that I strongly believe should be odds on, I shouldn’t be afraid to give this as a selection.

One of the readers ignored my two selections yesterday and backed the favourite in both cases as he thought that my analysis led him to believe that these were the best bets. Hence, he backed two winners and got a nice double.

Another reader backed the winner today as I said it would win one in two times and it was around a 5/4 chance today and was well backed from 7/4. Hence, if my 50% probability was correct, it was vastly overpriced at 7/4 and it clearly was.

I think this has taught me another very important lesson this week. It’s not the odds of the winners that matter in the long-run, it’s how much value you can get from the odds that matters.

In the Malapropism race last night, I thought the horse was overpriced at 4/1. However, I only thought it should be a fraction shorter, so there wasn’t much value there. I deliberately didn’t select the favourite as at Evs, I didn’t see much value.

However, I wasn’t looking at value in the correct way and my thinking was clouded far too much by not wanting to back a short priced favourite. As Matt says though, it doesn’t take a short priced horse to be overpriced by much for it to represent great value.

I’m not going to dwell too much on this as I’ve spoken about value on here many times but going forward, I’m not going to be afraid to select a shorter priced horse in future if I believe it really is overpriced.

I feel so far on the blog, I have given 3 penalty kick selections. Golden Prospect lost (10/1), Shesha Bear won (13/2) and Ethaara (5/4). If I had selected these as 3 point bets and the rest as 1 and 2 point bets, I’d be doing well IMO.

With regards to the tipping comp, selecting a 5/4 winner isn’t going to help me close the 17 point gap on the guy at the top today, so I may need some fireworks tomorrow as it’s my last selections before my holidays! I'm off work tomorrow, so I will see oddschecker tomorrow before posting up my selections, so it should help me a bit.

Incidentally, assuming Andrew is happy with what I’m suggesting, I’d like to give him a guest week on the blog while I’m away. This will ensure that regular readers have something to read while I’m away. He also has a few different opinions to me on things, so it will give him a soapbox for a week if he wants it!

Andrew will also be charged with trying to catch up the points on the leader in the tipster comp in the final 2 days. If any person can do it, it’s definitely him as his average selection is 20/1 plus, so I’ll only need one winner from four to win!!!!

Champion Tipster Day 4

2008-08-21T10:39:00.002+01:00

Bet 1 – Ethaara 2.40 Great Leighs (2/1)
Bet 2 – Tony The Tap 3.15 Great Leighs (9/1)

Similar to yesterday in many aspects, today’s racing is very poor. I wouldn’t even look at the races to be honest but since I’m in this tipping comp, I had to find two!

Do not back these horses today!!!!!!!!!!

I initially looked at a few races at Chester but they are just too competitive. I couldn’t even rule out half the field in one race.

I was short of time last night also, so there is no great analysis to go with the two selections today for the competition.

Ethaara was an unbelievably short price on debut and I couldn’t understand why as it hadn’t run. It was also fairly weak on Betfair but the money came late, so someone knew it was decent. I watched it closely and it travelled like a dream through the race but was far too inexperienced to do itself justice.

Importantly, it wasn’t commented on by the RP analyst after the race as having run well, so it becomes a straight match between his IR race reading skills and mines…..

I have this down as being close to an odds on chance today and I can’t see a tissue yet as the big bookmakers are being very slow in pricing up this race.

I did see it’s around 3 on Betfair though, so I thought it was a value bet at 3 amazingly. It should win this 1 in 2 times…..

The second selection is around the 9/1 mark which is much more like it. Basically, the reason for selecting this is that on the form book, it should just beat the favourite IMO. Hence, I think it is wrongly priced at 9/1.

As you can see from the above, not much thought gone into today’s selections being honest but I’m starting to wind down for my holiday.

Please don’t back any of these as they are not really tips. I wouldn’t give a tip today as there are no available betting opportunities for me.

Not a disaster!

2008-08-20T23:33:00.002+01:00

Daily Loss £15

Just to keep things in order, wanted to do a quick post.

Today is one of them days when I don’t mind having a loss to be honest. I was just saying today to someone that to win in the long-run, you need to be able to read races well and understand when a bet is value.

I always find the race reading bit easier in many aspects and finding possible winners is fairly easy. However, deciding on which horse to back is more difficult and I sometimes get it wrong. With experience, I’ll get it right more often but I got it wrong twice today.

In the first race, I had narrowed it down to 2 possible bets. However, last night, I had built my own quick tissue and I knew that I was looking for 10/1 on Icannshift and 12/1 on Cruise Director. Both were priced up at less than 8/1 this morning which meant I had got my tissue wrong and hence, they weren’t a bet today. I made that clear this morning.

Looking at my tissue now, the reason I had them two overpriced was simply because I had the favourite in too short. Hence, I sort of smiled when I heard before the race that the fav was well backed all day and I had a wry grin tonight when I see that Tipping Legends had put that one up……

This morning, instead of telling everyone to not back Icannshift as it was too short, I should have went further and said to back the favourite which would have taken some leap of faith and I’m not at that advanced stage yet in my tipping career. Another lesson learnt for me though. Also maybe shows that I can do with issuing a tissue for every race I analyse…..(this thing is in danger of becoming a full-time job!)

The second race was funny. If you read my analysis, even with the 4 non-runners, the race went to nearly perfection as the fav sat at the back and came through to win as I said it would! I thought the favourite was too short this morning at 2/1 and I was right. Malapropism was 11/2 and 6/1 on opening shows and I was right to select this. Even with 4 non-runners, the favourite only started at just below Evs on Betfair, so 2/1 was too short in the morning. It won very easily though, and mines was a well beaten second.

On the face of it, I missed a 3/1 and Evs winner today in 2 handicaps. I only had one bet on Malapropism at 5 on Betfair just before the off. I didn’t have a bet in the first race as I couldn’t get the odds I wanted.

Some days when you pick 2 losers, you feel like it’s a disaster. Today doesn’t feel like that to be honest.

Hope no one went daft on Malapropism. For those that read the analysis and had a slightly different interpretation, you could have found the two winners yourself today……

I’ll post up 2 selections tomorrow.

Champion Tipster Day 3

2008-08-19T23:23:00.004+01:00

I had a bit of a panic this morning as I wrote this post below last night but when I saw the odds this morning, I had to change a few comments.

Bet 1 - 5.55 Folkestone - Icannshift (7/1) - (Is not a bet at this price, 10/1 is what we'd want before we got involved.)
Bet 2 - 7.55 Folkestone - Malapropism (11/2)

The issue for me today is I need to give 2 selections in the comp and there were only 2 races today which meet my selection criteria. I think Icannshift is likely to run well but I don't think 7/1 is correct. Don't lay it though as it front runs and you'll never get out IR!!!

5.55 Folkestone

1 – Likely to be well fancied. Come over from France and needed two runs to ‘acclimatize’ according to trainer. Won well last time and was 7 lengths clear of 3rd. However, the 2nd looked to chuck it away and 2nd has since been beaten again when well fancied, so form may not be as strong as it looks on paper. Keep
2 – Trip and ground look perfect and ran OK last twice and dropped a few pounds since. First run on favoured ground for a while. Keep
3 – Been beaten last twice off this mark and would need to improve a bit here. Never won on anything other than good to firm, so ground is large negative. Dismiss.
4 – Interesting from the point of view it appeared to improve massively over hurdles in the winter. Rated 125 over hurdles which makes today’s mark of 65 look fairly low. Keep
5 – Trip and ground are both doubts, been beaten more than 10 lengths last 3 starts, difficult to fancy. Dismiss
6 – Ran 80 times and never won a race with soft in the description. Been running OK but getting long in the tooth for a first win on soft. Dismiss.
7 – This is the sort of horse that I’d lay all day. Never won on soft, barely ever run on soft to be honest, so clearly doesn’t like it. In amazing form but off a lifetime high mark, easily dismissed. Dismiss.
8 – Won very well last time and only carries 6lb penalty here. Won at track before and jockey rode it well last time, so could be value for their 7lb claim. Keep
9 – Came over from France and was 33/1 and tailed off on debut. Impossible to fancy. Dismiss
10 – Only been beaten once less than 10 lengths in last 7 starts over flat and NH. Beaten at 40/1 last time over 2m after staying on. Impossible to fancy here. Dismiss
11 – Sprang a 25/1 shock on debut run this season but well beaten next time. One win in last 21 runs means it’s difficult to get too excited by it here. Dismiss
12 – Last two runs have been too bad to be true. Before that, was in some sort of form. Very consistent if we can exclude the last 2 runs. Last run was first run for 2 months, so may have needed it a bit. Keep
13 – Will try to make all. Loves this track and trip. Last 4 wins have been over this course and distance. Has a definite preference for soft ground and last 3 runs have been OK on ground too firm. Dropping a little in the weights after these runs and now well handicapped. Keep.
14 – Actually running much better than it appears on paper and caught the eye a few runs back over course and distance staying on late. Keep

Right, this looks tricky. I’ve narrowed it down to 1,2,4,8,12,13,14. Exactly half the field ruled out.

I think a lot of the race revolves around 1. It won well last time and may be very well handicapped but we missed its win last time at 16/1, it’s 6lb higher today in a tougher race and will be favourite. We missed the wedding, don’t attend the funeral!

That leaves us with 6 possibles.

I think it is nearly impossible to back 4. It will be fancied and yes, if it translates its improvement over hurdles to the flat, it could be very well handicapped but it hasn’t run on the flat for 310 days. Forecast second fav in the Racing Post also, so unlikely to be value. Dismiss this one.

We are now left with 2,8,12,13,14.

8 only won a selling handicap last time and although it won well, today’s race is much tougher and it’s 6lb higher. I think with the increase in weight and the tougher race and the fact we missed the win last time, I can’t back this. Last time was the time to back it.

Right, now left with 2,12,13,14.

The odds of these in the Racing Post tissue are 8/1,14/1,12/1 and 28/1. As usual, there’s some value here……

The fact that 12 has been beaten out of sight the last twice means it has questions to answer here, so I’d maybe take a watching brief with this one instead of backing it.

3 reasons to rule out 14 are: it’s 3lb out of the handicap, so it’s going to find it even more difficult. It’s only won once in 27 races. Lastly, if this was a hurdle race, it would have 60lbs to find with 4 (which I ruled out!). We can dismiss this one I think for today.

Left with 2 and 13.

Interestingly, 13 is a front runner who always sets a good pace and 2 is a hold up horse that needs a good pace. Hence, 2 should get the pace he needs today.

However, the fact that 13 has won his last 4 races here (last twice on soft) off higher marks implies to me that it can win this today. However, after seeing the odds this morning, it is not worth a bet at less than 10/1.

For those of you that like to trade IR, this will lead them a merry dance for a long way!!!!

7.55 Folkestone

1 – Clear preference for soft ground although some doubts around best trip. Last four runs have been over 5f,6f,8f and 7f! Best runs have all been on 5f/6f soft, so will be suited by today’s trip/ground. Keep
2 – Usually wins from July/August onwards and rattled up a hat-trick last year in September. Very interesting jockey booking as Holland regarded as best front-running jockey and he rode it when it started its hat-trick last year. First time he has ridden it this season…..Keep
3 – Horse barely gets 5f and goes off too fast. Tumbling in the weights but not running well. Never run on soft, so that’s a major issue. Dismiss
4 – Well handicapped on old form and ran well last time. Ground and trip seem fine. Keep
5 – Won’t go on the ground and not that well handicapped now after winning yesterday. Now won 2 races in 3 by small margins, so needs to be still improving. Dismiss.
6 – Ran well last time and well handicapped on old form. I have a doubt concerning the ground though as wouldn’t want it too soft. Keep
7 – Impossible to know if it is well handicapped. Didn’t show much in maidens either. Difficult to fancy. Dismiss.
8 – No form on soft, well beaten last twice, earlier form was OK but even so, difficult to fancy. Interesting jockey booking. Dismiss

That leaves me with 1,2,4,6. Again, half of the field is ruled out.

One of the key aspects to this race is the pace. 3 always goes like thunder, 2 likes to lead and 6 goes from the front. Having 3 in the race messes it up for 2 and 6 to some extent in my opinion. 4 can also go from towards the front.

By process of elimination, that only leaves 1 which happens to be a hold up horse who gets much further than 5f and loves soft ground. Hence, his stamina will come into play here.

Not surprisingly, Spotlight has picked up on the pace aspect and has napped this and it’s currently 2/1 on oddschecker. Difficult to see much value there to be honest.

However, due to the fact I need a selection for the tipping comp, I’ll go for 2 at current odds of 11/2 on oddschekcer.

Holland is much renowned as being the best front-running jockey and here’s hoping he can somehow work his magic here. The fact he won on it the first time he rode it implies he was deliberately asked to ride it and I guess the same must be true here as he hasn’t ridden it this season yet. Its runs this season on soft ground have been better than on firm and it could be the case it has managed to get well handicapped by running on ground not quite right.

Incidentally, Holland is 2 from his last 3 rides for Channon over the past 6 days. Stable has had 2 winners, 3 places from last 6 horses to have run. Everything points to a better run here from Malapropism than the market expects…….