Tuesday, 25 November 2008

Getting nearer to the Holy Grail?

Profit since last update £915.65 plus £40 subs (in addition to £140 subs already banked this month)

These blog updates are becoming less and less regular no matter how hard I try to find time to write them but that’s the way it has become I’m afraid.

I do want to try to get in a routine of writing a weekly blog post with some thoughts but it is very difficult to find the time. If I do find a bit of time at weekends, it’s better spent on doing something at the site, studying some results or doing some form study etc. so the blog has dropped down the pecking order of things to do.

However, as I said on the last post, the blog will not ‘die’ until The Experiment finishes, so those of you that like to read blogs and have enjoyed reading mines should keep stopping by to see if there are any weekly updates.

In the summer of this year, I think blog readers were spoilt for choice as there were a number of daily gambling blogs on the go and mines was just one of these. You also had Leon’s blog, Alistair’s blog and JP’s blog to name but a few. Leon is updating his blog as irregularly as I am, so that’s two of the best blogs gone in my opinion.

I still read JP’s blog and Alistair’s blog regularly though and there are links at the side.

So, what’s been happening with me and the subscribers at The Form Analyst site?

I’m sure lots of you keep tabs on my tipping and I’m sure lots of you want to see me do well. I also know a fair number of you want to see me fall flat on my face which always spurs me on a little during the bad times but it’s all part of being a tipster I’m afraid.

My tipping has been very good and the results speak for themselves. Here’s a graph of my P&L for the Form Analyst which looks like the one at Racing Index apart from this graph is to suggested odds and not Starting Price:

I’m not going to rub anyone’s face in how good I’m doing at the tipping as it’s not going to get me anywhere. Most people knew I had the potential to do something pretty special at the tipping game with my knowledge of horse-racing but I blew my best opportunity during the free trial month.

I’ve decided that I’m going to keep the service going into the New Year and I’m hoping most of my current subscribers will stay with me. I’m looking into other avenues to grow the business but I’m being very careful about where I look for potential subscribers.

I don’t want Joe Punter subscribers who look at my results and think I can make them a million in a year. I had a bad experience with these types during my free trial month and I can do without their subscription fees. I’m being very careful about recruiting new members and I’m not going to discuss it on here even. Let’s just say that I’ve a few things in the pipeline.

One of the reasons I keep a blog is to obviously record my own punting activities and it’s been a strange couple of months.

Since I started giving out analysis, I’ve dabbled between trading and punting. I started off punting and switched to trading after being well down during the month of October and having a poor September but it has worked well. I’ve still been continuing to trade my selections this month and it’s probably cost me a fair few quid but I’ve been doing OK on other races where I haven’t given a selection but fancied a horse to run well, so it’s all looking pretty good at the moment.

This is the best month I’ve had this year trading/punting by far and I’m sure it’s no coincidence that it has happened at a time when I’ve been reading races very well and giving out a lot of winning tips. So much of the tipping and trading game is about confidence and I’ve been flying high on confidence for most of this month, so it has followed that I was going to win a fair few quid from trading my own selections.

I’ve written lots and lots on here about whether my trading strategy works or not and people have their own views on it but being honest, when you’re selecting decent priced horses that trade very low IR, anyone could trade these horses and not lose. I gave up on trying to be a good trader a few months ago and I’ll never be a trader that can make money by trading odds movements on Betfair.

However, I have shown consistently on here that if you trade the right horses, you can’t fail to do well and since I’m picking the right horse to trade for many races this month, I’m doing well. Here’s my P&L for the last 3 months:

I’m only using a bank of a couple of hundred pound still (drawing down every week to help pay the bills at the moment!) and my staking size is around £30-£60 on most races I trade, so the returns are off the planet compared to a scalper but I take more risks than scalpers by letting trades go in play in many races, so it’s a simple risk v return game where my risks have worked very well this month. I’m not stupid enough to believe that these returns are achievable every month but I won’t complain about this month.

One of the criticisms that many people threw at me when I was thinking of starting a tipping service was the famous quote “why don’t you just back your own horses with your own money if you’re any good?” and I’ll repeat what I’ve always said. There are punters out there in a much better place financially to be able to exploit my knowledge better than me and it’s these guys that I wanted with me at the site.

I have a very diverse bunch of guys at the site who are playing with stakes from £4 a point to £50 a point. All of them are well in profit this month and overall and obviously, the ones who play with higher stakes are the guys that can exploit me to the full! My target for the service is to make 20 points a month and I’m doing a little better than that after 2 months.

If I can make 240 points a year, that means that the £50 a point guys make £12k and out of this, I’d only take a return £500 or so across the year. Seems like everyone’s a winner and this was always the plan when I started the site.

Obviously, other tipping sites charge much more than my site but as I’ve promised on here before, I’ll never overcharge for the service. If I don’t get enough subscribers to make it worthwhile, I’ll stop the service as I wouldn’t expect subscribers to pay more no matter how good I do at the tipping.

Overall, it’s been a great month for me and the subscribers and I’m now past the £4.5k mark this year with my trading/punting which is a nice achievement. Obviously, I’m not spending much time on the trading now and I’m sort of happy with my own trading strategy on Betfair and most of my time is going to spent on trying to grow the subscription business.

I feel in a great position now whereby if I do decide to stop the tipping, I know I can make a nice sum from just trading my own selections on Betfair which is basically the Holy Grail for most punters. 2009 could be a big year for The Form Analyst……..


Cassini said...

Great p & l Graeme. As you know I'm into sports rather than horses, but you certainly know your stuff and my interest is certainly piqued. Good luck.

Anonymous said...

Well done on the profits mate, long may it last!!!! Keep up the blog as much as possible.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi mate.

I was due a bit of a run of good selections and fortunately, I caught a few of these winners on Betfair, so it soon adds up.

I'm starting to get the hang of the tipping thing I think and even if it all goes belly up now, I've learnt a hell of a lot over the past 9 months to enable me to make regular pocket money on Betfair.



Graeme Dand said...

Hi Leon.

I'll try to update more regularly. Time is an issue for me nowadays but I do like keeping track of things on the blog and it keeps my mind straight at times.

Nice to see you made a nice profit recently and hopefully, you'll get back to earning consistent profits again.

My daily P&Ls look like a rollercoaster nowadays but thankfully, I seem to be having more good days than bad days, so it soon adds up.

Good luck.