Sunday, 28 September 2008

A sad day & reply to recent comments

As all of you know, I have very strong views on not moderating comments on this blog and I’ve been lucky enough that I haven’t had too many idiots reading the blog. I think my blog is one of the last few blogs I read that doesn’t moderate comments but I’m going to have to enable moderation for the time-being.

As I’ve said many times on here, I really don’t mind people having a go at me or slagging me off. I’m a big boy and I can take it. However, an anonymous poster has continually been posting offensive comments and last week, I had to delete 3 comments which were abusive. Being honest, this sort of thing happens on blogs and if the comments are aimed at me, I don’t really mind.

This morning, I had a quick check of the blog before I popped out for the day and I saw that some idiot had tried to answer a question that George asked by imitating someone else and the guy is clearly an idiot of the highest order. Therefore, I’m left with no option but to moderate comments.

However, my principles still stand. I will publish every single comment that anyone makes even if they are having a go at me. I also don’t mind anonymous comments, so you won’t need a Google account to be able to post. However, no abusive comments will be posted and no comments from anyone pretending to be anyone else.

I can’t believe how stupid some people can be but isn’t it always the case that some knob spoils it for everyone…….He has even gone to the bother of getting a Google name pretending to be someone else! What an absolute tosser…..I can only imagine his shock today when he attempted to post up again and I intercepted it. lol

Apologies for the time it’s taken to reply to the recent comments but as the guys across at the new site know, I’m trying to take a few days away from things before the start of next month. This month has been a draining month both physically and mentally. Doing a quick calculation, I reckon I’ve spent 50 hours on form analysis, and 60 hours on emails and website design etc. 110 hours out of anyone’s life in a month is a fair chunk. 110 hours out of someone’s life who is out the house from 8am-6pm 5 days a week is too much…….

I have changed my profit for the month to take account of £83.67 profit yesterday. I won 7 points to suggested stakes yesterday (not 8 as quoted elsewhere), so as someone rightly commented last night, I’m actually -6 points on the month now. I stupidly decided to halve my stakes yesterday as I was worried about losing too much this month and as luck would have it, I have a winning day. I really haven’t got much right this month……

As someone also commented below, it’s Murphy’s Law that I have a winning day as soon as I stop emailing everyone on my distribution list. However, I really don’t think this proves anything new to anyone. I’ve given a free trial of 26 days this month. If people haven’t got the gist of what I know and how well I’m likely to do in the long-run, I really don’t see how one extra day makes a bit of difference.

Here’s my reply to all the comments made on the last post:

Hi Cassini.

I don’t want to dwell too much on your point mate as I know you were highlighting the irony of the fact I’m trying to start a subscription service off the back of a very poor month for me. It was maybe lost a little in translation!

I agree with what you are saying about the additional free month but that assumes that the 26 day trial didn’t give people a chance to see what I can do. I worked my ass off to ensure that I gave people a flavour of what I can do but in the end, time beat me and my results suffered a bit at the end.

Giving up another 60 hours of my time next month for absolutely zero reward doesn’t really appeal and I know it would get me a lot more subscribers in month 2 but all of my tips are being proofed independently from next month anyway, so people will be able to see how I’m doing and can make their own decisions regarding future months.

Only point I want to reiterate is that I’m not charging to make a profit. At the moment, I’ll be struggling to cover the cost of my own time and that excludes any website costs etc. Charging £30 a month was only to say thanks to everyone who has been reading the blog. There are quite a lot of people out there who charge five times the price who don’t have a tenth of my knowledge and that’s fact. Lots of people who buy tips have told me this.

Thanks for the comment mate and for wishing me good luck. I can do with some luck for next month!

Hi Racereader.

Excellent plug mate. I’d be really keen to post some of your free analysis on the blog. My email address is on the profile page. Drop me a note and I’ll post it on here. Why don’t you start up a website and try to charge people mate?

Good luck with your venture and I look forward to reading your ‘free’ analysis. I see you set your account in the last few days. Are the anonymous person in disguise? I’ll let the readers decide……

Hi Dave.

lol @ humble pie….

I really don’t feel like I have much to prove mate. The way some people have reacted to me having a losing month is great in a sense as it shows that they thought I was capable of much better. I agree with them!

I mentioned the price point above to Cassini but once I’ve proved myself over a longer period, you can be sure that the price will be going up! :)

However, as I’ve said before on here, people who are with me from day 1 will always be well looked after. Differential pricing is something that happens in the insurance world everyday and I don’t see why it won’t work here. No Claims Discount is a popular one and I’ll have a loyalty bonus for members. The longer you are with me, the cheaper the discount on the price that Joe Public will pay!

It’s not surprising that I had a good winner yesterday as it sums up my month. I really need to stop using that phrase but I really can’t believe my bad luck this month.

Hi Andrew.

Nice to see you really appreciated the in-depth analysis of my month results mate! :)

I agree that I should be judged to selected stakes and odds. None of my winners have been backed in the morning (lots of losers have been!) and all my winners were heavily backed on course, so people got better odds.

One thing I’ve just remembered is that Fort Churchill won at 11/1 and I gave it at 8/1, so there’s 3 points lost there and helps explain the -6 points. Throw in the very poor staking (3 points on 25/1 isn’t wise after the event) and the fact I lost this month is laughable.

Your point about the analysis is true and it will be my USP. I haven’t spoken too much on here before about other tipsters but I have seen lots of examples of what other tipsters do from readers. Very few are in the same league as me with regards to knowledge but clearly, they are doing this full-time and have years of experience. I’m part time with 27 days experience, so comparisons at the moment are impossible and that explains the price I want to charge next month.

I agree that I do more than provide tips and people can learn from my analysis and hopefully, people will realise that. Whatever happens, I’m proud of this month and the fact I gave people the opportunity to see what I can do free of charge. At least I don’t need to worry about high expectations next month! lol

Hi Kevin.

It always makes me feel good to get new commenters although I remember adding you to the list after Fort Churchill!

When I did the analysis on the blog in the Summer, I didn’t give enough hints about what to look for someone to start using my methods. I aim to improve on that over at the new site.

The time element is easily the thing that people underestimate. It takes me around 2-3 hours a night to find the right races, right horses, and to write up the analysis. I manage to look at a fair few races as I can compute the data in my head fairly quickly and I’ll never manage to teach that! However, you’ll pick up on the key things to look for and this will help you with the time element.

Even knowing what I know, it still takes time, hard work and dedication to make it work in the long-run. I wish more than anyone that this month would have gone better but it wasn’t to be. Honesty is something that I really believe in and I couldn’t do any of this without 100% honesty. Last night’s post was a nightmare to write since I know I was effectively killing my chances of some subscriptions next month but that’s life.

Hi George.

I selected Guilded Warrior at 13/2 yesterday for 2 points win. My results will always be available for anyone who asks mate as I’ve got nothing to hide. It was 7 points profit on the day as my other horses ran poor but nothing new there this month!

Thanks for wishing me luck.

Hi David.

Many thanks for your nice comment. As you know, I do aim to make this fun and profitable in the long-term and being honest, there are worse ways than spending £30 for a month’s entertainment! Putting it on my horses this month is one way…lol

In time, I aim to work my way up the Racing Index table but time will tell. I have time on my side as I’m only 26 and been doing this for 27 days, so I’m sure I’ll improve greatly as time moves on.

Look forward to working with you next month! In time, I’ve a feeling you may be a very good form reader yourself from what you’ve showed me thus far.

Finally….(I do write a lot at times!), thanks for all the comments and for the support a few of you have already showed across at the new site. People appear to be favouring the 3 month service which means that they have faith in my ability to do well at this even after last month. This means a lot to me……

Saturday, 27 September 2008

Monthly Review......

This could be a long post but it’s important that I write this post no matter how bad it looks for me……

As the month has gone on, this post was always going to look bad and after a poor end to the month, it isn’t going to be a great read for anyone. The fact I’ve chosen to have my worse month of the year while giving a free trial and trying to start a subscription service is quite ironic. I thought it may have led to a slower start to the subscription service but this hasn’t been the case, so it appears that people are willing to judge me on the long-run and not on 26 days of selections.

Personally, I think this is no bad thing as I’d hate to think that people were buying a service that promised amazing results like 90% of tipsters do. My results are available for all to see and giving a free trial was a brave decision for anyone who wanted to start a subscription service but I know my results long-term, so I have nothing to hide.

As most of you know, I like to analyse my performance and I keep detailed stats of everything. That’s part of the reason why I know I’ll do well in the long-run but all you guys are judging me on 26 days of this month, so I’ll only analyse these results in this post.

I suppose the best place to start is to share all of my results. This includes a form comment for every horse, SPs, suggested odds, my staking plan and various ways to track the P&L etc. I always tend to track this sort of thing when I’m punting as it’s important to check that my method of selecting winners works over a sustained period.

Here are the results:

Basically, everyone can sit and look at these anyway you want. As I’ve said, I’ll never try to hide the fact it was a poor month and I’ve admitted that all the way through this month. However, I don’t judge myself on one poor month and I know some of you won’t either. Obviously, I know lots of you will judge me on this month and believe that this is a true representation of my ability and I’m happy with that. If you really think I spend hours looking at form every year to make substantial losses, then I won’t try to disagree with you.

I’ve picked out a few things to look at to try to pinpoint where it’s gone wrong this particular month to share with you. Here’s a table with a few interesting observations:

In the long-run, I know my strike rate is 15%. This is basically fact as it’s something I’ve tracked over a very long period anytime I’ve been punting for a sustained period. This month, my strike rate was only 9.5% which is down 35% on the long-run average. Very disappointing and is the main reason I have lost this month. I haven’t picked enough winners. It is as simple as that.

I usually get a return on about 20% of my bets as I don’t use each-way very often and when I do, it usually works. This month, my each-way betting has been poor and only one selection has been placed when I’ve selected each-way. That can be put down to poor judgement on my part as I don’t use each-way often enough and maybe I shouldn’t have used it at all this month. Something to consider for the future for me…..

Other obvious points are the number that trade at least half in running, the number of runners in each race (I pick the hardest races) and the average SP is very interesting.

In the long-run, my average SP is usually around 10/1. This month, it’s a good deal higher and I’m not sure why. Part of it was probably trying to show off when I could have selected more likely horses to win with a little less value in races but overall, not too disappointed from that point of view. 95% of my selections were value bets.

This table tells another interesting story this month:

During the month, lots of people were asking me to select shorter priced horses as they like to lump on bankers. As I’ve said all month, it’s not my thing as I really struggle to calculate value in large field handicaps on short priced horses. Therefore, anytime I select a short priced runner, it must be very ‘well in’ and represent great value. If anyone had purely lumped on my short-priced horses, they’d be 10 points up with 4 bets. I’m guessing no one did that last month………

To not have a winner from 18 selections at 9/2 to 10/1 is very, very poor to be honest and this is a freak occurrence. Obviously, Overrule was second twice at 5/1 when in my opinion, it should have won twice and ultimately, 2 poor jockeys have cost me a fair bit this month. This sort of thing happens to every tipster though and I’m a great believer that in the long-run, this sort of thing levels out. I won’t complain too much.

As I’ve made clear on here, the reason that I do so well with horse-racing punting is because I can pick large price winners consistently. This month, an 11/1 winner with three 14/1 seconds is a bit of a killer and it’s killed my chances of a massive profit this month. In time, this will even itself out though and a few of these seconds would have won and I’d have made 40 points in the month easily. Didn’t happen this month though……

Overall, all I needed was Overrule to have a better jockey once, River Falcon to have a longer nose or Sphinx to not bump into Bollin Felix when that one was so well handicapped and I’d been looking at breaking-even in a very, very poor month. If I can do this is a poor month, what will I do in a good month? Time will tell………

Below is a graph of my bank this month. It shows my P&L to SP and level stakes, BSP and level stakes and Suggested Odds and Stakes.

None of these make good reading for me but one thing I would say is that tracking my results to SP this month was never going to be good. All of my 4 winners nearly halved in price (on-course) and therefore, no one backed any of these winners at SP. However, I said at the start of the month that I’d track to SP and it allows comparisons to be made with other tipsters.

Overall, I lost 15 points to SP at level stakes, 13 points to suggested odds and stakes and 8.3 to Betfair SP at level stakes.

Personally, since none of my winners were backed in the morning and the suggested odds were widely available, a 13 point loss is a true reflection on the month. I’m sure everyone has a different view but that’s my honest opinion.

One thing that’s struck me this month is how over the top the criticism has been of my performance. I think I’m a victim of the hype surrounding me and what I know and people seriously expected me to make 100 points profit this month. To make a very large profit in any month, you need big winners and big winners don’t come along as frequently as you like. When they don’t come along frequently in the same month, you lose in that month. That’s the name of the game when you gamble…….

Lastly, I said at the start of the month I’d compare myself to tipsters on Racing Index. Obviously, people can tear me to shreds here but you need to remember that you are comparing my worst month this year with other tipsters. My worst month is nowhere near as bad as other tipsters’ worst month and this needs to be factored in.

From next month, all of my selections will be proofed on Racing Index and we’ll see how I do in the long-run. I’m still as confident as I’ve always been and one bad month won’t undo my previous performance during my punting life.

I know lots of people will question why I can ask people to pay for selections after making a loss during the trial month but firstly, how many tipsters out there give subscribers a free month? Very, very few if any.

Secondly, I made it clear at the start of the month that this month was to give a flavour of what I can do. After knowing that there was a demand for what I do, I had to start planning for next month. Therefore, I eased off the analysis and started working towards next month. I’m a one-man band with a full-time job and I assumed that people would understand if results tailed off towards the end of the month. I only have 24 hours in my day and spending 3 hours on analysis in the second half was not possible.

Looking back, I maybe took it for granted that the winners would continue to flow and I wish I hadn’t. The month was meant to be a flavour of what I do and I gave that in the first week. I should have then stopped the trial and waited until next month instead of juggling too many things. The selections suffered a little but I always knew it would only be a matter of time before the winners flowed again. I won’t get that chance to prove that to many of you now and it will cost me a couple of subscribers but that’s life.

Below are comparison tables with all the tipsters on Racing Index. No comments to make apart from to remind you that you are comparing my worst month with many of their best. Tables don’t lie though……

Friday, 26 September 2008

"Ran into a wall of trouble"

Daily Loss £100.00

Going to keep this short tonight as I’ve had a long week and I’ve had a nightmare with Paypal on the site tonight. It seems that Paypal won’t accept some cards but I’ve got a way around it, so it shouldn’t do too much damage. If anyone has any problems, just let me know.

Well, today was the last day of the free month and after somehow managing to get Overrule beaten last time when it was so well handicapped, I’ve managed to repeat it again today! I’ve now lost £120 (6 tipping points) on a horse which has finished in front of 28 horses in two starts and last time, it would have won by 2 lengths without the winner and today, it would have won by 4 lengths easily without the winner.

Last time, it was given a very poor ride in my opinion and having watched the replay tonight, I struggle for words to describe the ride today. Obviously, the winner has won well but Overrule gave it a dozen lengths start. The RP said “effort when ran into wall of trouble 2f out” and that just about sums it up. It was well backed again today and the trainer must be pulling his hair out.

I said last time it was the best bet of the month and I hinted at that again today and I really can’t believe it has lost again. If there is one day it sums up my month, it’s today.

My first selection today was Totally Focussed and it has finished 16th of 16 beaten 40 lengths. Absolutely tailed off by miles and it really doesn’t get any worse than that! As I said this morning, I had a feeling it was an AW horse but I took a chance it may have handled the ground today. Clearly, the horse is an AW horse and it cost us 1 point to find out. Next time, it should be a decent price back on the AW, so I’d keep the faith with it and give it another shot to prove it is well handicapped.

My final selection also sums up the month. The Racing Post comment was “slowly into stride and rear, ridden along well over 2f out, switched right and good headway on outer over 1f out, finished strongly.”

This was Harvest Warrior and as I said this morning, it stays on very late in the day over 8f and next time, probably over 9f or 10f, this would be approaching a penalty kick. Not much good for my free month but I’ll happily take the luck I’m due next month.

3 selections on the day. A tailed off last, an unlucky loser and an eye-catcher…..Nothing new there then!

I don’t think I’ve ever been so glad to see the back of a month as I will be for this month. I’ve even moved into a loss personally on the month which is disappointing as I have only had 1 losing month this year, but I’ll hopefully turn that around this weekend.

One point I’ve always made on here is that I really don’t believe that luck comes into horse-racing punting in the long-term. Obviously, everyone goes through a run of bad luck and I’ve had mines this month but that’s life…..

I’ll do a post tomorrow night concerning the results this month and it won’t be a pretty read. As the anonymous commenter keeps reminding me, it’s been a bad month. I have all the detailed results and whatever way you look at it, it’s not been a great month. If the name of the game was to select seconds I’d be having a great month but winners are what matters and I haven’t had enough of these.

Personally, the most interesting stat is the fact that around one third of my horses have finished well beaten. That’s the sort of thing that layers would be aiming for. :)

I’ll probably have to revise my target for the number of points I aim to win in the next 12 months then……. I’ll aim for 240 points now as I think 360 may be a little ambitious after seeing what’s happened this month.

240 points in 12 months…..Sounds easy!!!! :)

Thursday, 25 September 2008

Well, the secret is out of the bag as you can see by the title……

My new website is

I thought long and hard about the name but it became fairly obvious. My best skill is analysing form and therefore, the name sort of made sense to me.

It’s taken a little bit of time to get Paypal set up on the site and I’d ask everyone who wants to sign up to be patient. I’m sure there will be lots of ‘bugs’ on the site and it will take a few days to flush them all out. If anyone does have problems signing up for example, drop me a note and I’ll try to get it fixed.

In summary, once people sign up and pay, they will need to be set up on the site. Obviously, I won’t be around 24 hours a day to set people up, so you will need to be patient. You also need to choose a username at signup and this will be the name that you use to post on the forum, so please don’t use anything rude!

Once you receive your password for the site, you will gain access to the member’s section of the site. Here, you will gain access to all of my pre/post race analyses this month, access to a forum and chat room and I’m also going to be issuing a weekly report. The weekly report will contain a review of the week’s racing and things like horses to follow etc.

From the beginning of next month, all of my tips will be proofed on Racing-Index. This is simply so people can see how I’m doing and it saves me from having to record all of the results in detail. They will do it for me!

Unlike most other tipsters I guess, I don’t really want to use the proofing site as a way to advertise my skills. I’m determined to offer a service whereby I won’t be judged on my proofed selections. Obviously, most punters will judge me on these and rightly so but it’s not really the be all and end all with me. There are many ways to win money from using my knowledge and I tend to explore as many of these as possible!

I’ve made a decision to reduce the price for next month for people who read my blog and have been receiving the month’s free trial. I’ve also included an option for people to buy a single month or up to three months. Given the events of last month, anyone who is still not convinced by me should either buy one month or continue to read the blog and keep track of my performance on the proofing site.

I made a point of saying in my email today that I don’t really want people to sign-up who don’t believe in me. As I’ve said before, one reason for this site is simply to create a space where I can discuss horse-racing with people who have an interest in racing. There are lots of horse-racing forums out there and I’ve looked at lots over the past few years and none are very good in my opinion.

I gave the Handicap Forum a try and that worked great but only 3 people posted as I scared most of the people away who disagreed with me! lol

I know there are lots of you out there who buy tips and maybe have a keen interest in horse-racing who want to learn. In a few months time, you won’t need to buy tips again if you can pick up enough knowledge from me.

I’m sure a few of you think that this is going to be a great money-making adventure for me….As I’ve said before, I’m pricing it in such a way to ensure I cover the costs for my own time. I’m not interested in making a profit. I can make a profit from punting, I don’t need large subscriptions.

In time, if I prove myself over a sustained period, the profits will come naturally and people will come looking to be part of the service I provide. I’m confident enough in my own ability to forego short-term gains for a chance at long-term profits. In the meantime, this gives you all the opportunity to buy a service at a fraction of the price it is worth.

This weekend, I’ll be around the site on the chat room and I’ll hopefully catch up with some of you on there. Next week, I’ll arrange some time in the chat room to introduce myself formally to everyone and answer any questions. The selections will obviously start from the 1st of October but I’ll be around the site on Saturday, so I’ll post up some horses and ideas in the forum I guess.

Tomorrow is the last day of the free trial and I’m hoping to go out with a bang! I’ve already got a couple of selections and I’m away to look at more races now, so it could be a great day if I can find some winners.

I’ll use the blog this weekend to discuss the past month and things I’ve learnt as well as sharing my results. Depending on how tomorrow goes, it may be an interesting read…..

Wednesday, 24 September 2008

Not my month!

Daily Loss £30.00

Well done to Andrew by the way. He was in The Weekender today and it was quite an interesting read. Also managed to mention me which was nice of him! :)

OK, I publicly begged for a change of luck this month a few days ago on here and it breaks my heart to say it hasn’t happened….

I’m fed up waffling on here regarding results so I’ll get to the point. Last night, I sent Andrew the note below:


Looked hard tonight and came up with a few interesting races. The big handicaps at Redcar are impossible to solve, so looking at Goodwood.

In the 4.55, revolves around Greylami and good old Hawaana. I got sent a note from _____ tonight saying he fancied Greylami a fair bit and I can see why. I saw it two starts back and should have won. Slight question mark about the attitude but recent runs have been great off this mark, so a solid bet.

I’ve no idea if Hawaana will stay this far but they’ll hold it up out the back and it will need a good pace. Same comment applies to Grey though, as both come late.

This will depend on price tomorrow. At 10/1 plus 1 point on Greylami. At 16/1 plus, 0.5 points on Hawaana. I won’t do both though, so it’s either or.

5.30 is a good race for me and the winner will come from the William’s Well form line. Three on the line are William, Shimoni and Mustajed. If I’m being strict, Shimoni should come out best but market will overestimate its chance tomorrow. Paddy have priced up Shimoni at 12/1 and William’s at 25/1 which is wrong.

Even if Shimoni has a little in hand, they can’t have much between them, so William’s is obvious. Mustajed holds William also but Shimoni has this one beat but market may overprice this.

I’ll have a point each-way on William’s at 20/1 or bigger. If it’s shorter, I’ll look at other two again

If you can send me the first shows for both races, I’ll write the rationale off the top of my head as I know the races inside out.



The first thing Andrew said to me today is that we should set up a thread on the forum next month so us two can discuss my suggested bets (as we currently do in emails) and that way, everyone can follow my thought process from start to end. He then added, “you know what will happen now, you’ll select the wrong horses today for these two races!” I replied “Even I can’t be that unlucky mate….”

I’ve been careful to not use the ‘luck’ word much this month as I’ve said before, my ‘edge’ is so large at this game, luck won’t come into it. Even with horrendously bad luck, I can’t lose in the long-run in my opinion.

However, some of the errors I’ve made this month have beggared belief and today falls into that category. However, I’m fed up taking the blame for this, so I’m going to say it’s not my month! lol

For those that don’t know, my selection for the first race was Hawaana. Greylami was very well backed and won well. Amazingly, this was the only horse I discussed in emails last night and today with a few of you and shock horror, it wins.

At the moment, anyone who’s been writing to me daily must be doing better than anyone who’s following my selections. I’ve barely tipped a winner all month and yet, in other races and in races where I haven’t selected a horse, I’m on fire!

One point I’ve made clear on here is the fact that I really think people can benefit from being on the same forum as me or chatting in a chat room to me. I don’t really know how much this is worth in monetary terms but at the moment, it’s worth 10 times my selections…..

One point Andrew made after the races today is that I need to really spend more time writing out my race analysis. Only mentioning one horse in my email today for the first race was criminal and to a degree, he is correct. However, if I think a horse is only worth 0.5 points win at the price, I’m not going to put 10 reasons to back the other horse as people will wonder why I’m backing my selection!

I think Andrew’s suggestion this morning will work well next month. As you all know, Andrew is proof reading my analysis and helping out with my staking this month. From next month, I’m happy for this to take place in an open manner on the forum at the new site. Obviously, I don’t want others posting on the same thread as I’m not wanting 10 views on whether to tip a horse or not (lol), but at least it will give everyone a chance to see my thought process.

For example, in the second race today, Shimoni has won by 5 lengths. Today, William’s was twice the price of this and therefore, 100 times out of 100, William’s was the best bet. Interestingly, William and Mustajed finished side by side. So, Shimoni has improved out of all recognition to win this race. I hold my hands up and I say I didn’t know that. However, who did?

That’s me down 16 points for the month and it’s laughable to be honest. Not going to do much for next month but that’s no bad thing. Last thing I want is people to subscribe who think I’m any good. They might have high expectations then! :)

If I get the site finished tonight, I’ll post something up later about it…..

The Journey So Far....

I’m conscious of the fact that a lot of readers haven’t been with me since Day 1 on here and therefore, before we move on to the next chapter of The Experiment, it feels like an ideal opportunity to look back on the last 8 months or so.

When I started out on this journey, I had 20 years experience of horse-racing form, 8 years of successful small time punting and 1 month experience of Betfair. My sole intention was to try to find a way that I can earn a second income from my horse-racing knowledge.

Before The Experiment started at the start of March, I used the weekends of February to try to learn to scalp on Betfair. I thought it would be a simple case of finding the most likely horse to win the race and backing that. Once the Betfair market caught on to the fact that this horse was overpriced and was the likely winner, everyone would back it and I’d be able to green up for a nice profit. If the only the world was as simple as that…..

My first ever ‘real’ trade on Betfair was on Rippling Ring which opened up at 15/8 against a Ferdy Murphy hotpot. I knew that the Nicholls horse was wrongly priced. Ten minutes later, I have my full £60 trading bank on Rippling Ring after it drifts to 5/1 and I then have to take a large guaranteed loss. The horse then wins on the bridle and I’m left scratching my head about why I managed to lose!

I’m sure many of you realised after that first day I’d never make it as a scalper and I’d have saved myself two months of hell if I had listened!

In March and April, I was off for 4 afternoons a week to trade and I barely managed to make any money at all in this time. My only real profits in this time were from trading golf and my limited knowledge of this game saved me from ‘going under’ in these two months of being part-time at work. I wisely decided to return to full-time employment at the start of May.

In the middle of April, I had started to analyse handicaps again and I joined The Handicap Forum to share my views on there. I thoroughly enjoyed my 6 weeks on there and it allowed me to develop a new trading strategy on Betfair ultimately. The amount of winners I selected in the 6 week spell was phenomenal and after agreeing to proof my tips for 2 weeks at the end, I made 60 points profit before I decided to return to trying to trade on Betfair.

My new strategy for Betfair involved using my knowledge to analyse races and then backing the horse I’d feel would win the race. I’d then look to lay off for a riskfree bet before the race and hope the horse would win. If a horse drifted pre-race, I’d look to lay off IR for a riskfree bet.

This strategy was then tweaked to green up IR and this was my ultimate strategy on Betfair and is where I got ended up with my trading ultimately. The months of May and June were exceptional months with regards to profits for someone using my stakes and the winners continued to flow regularly along with the profits.

Along came July and suddenly, the world seemed like a different place. I was slowly increasing my stakes throughout May and June and didn’t hit any issues. In July, I suddenly started selecting some very bad drifters on Betfair who continued to drift and drift and some of the losses I suffered were substantial for someone using my stakes.

In a few races, I ended up with my whole trading bank on large outsiders and I was forced to take large sums IR to bail me out. A few bad luck stories later and I had my first losing month of The Experiment. This led me to think long and hard about whether I could make it trading this way on Betfair or not.

Lots of readers then started to ask me about trying to help others make money by offering my race reading skills or trying to offer selections. After listening to the advice of readers and others who were writing to me, I decided I’d give tipping a try. A lot of people had picked up on the fact that I had no trading skills and the only reason I was winning on Betfair was due to the fact I could read races very well.

In August, I started to analyse races on the blog and give out some selections to get feedback on what I do. Similar to The Handicap Forum, the feedback was great and people seemed very impressed with what I can do. I also started to wind down my trading and started to gamble again. I hadn’t gambled during my time on The Handicap Forum (cost me a fair bit of money by not following my selections!) and I wasn’t sure how I would do.

The highlight of August was picking an 11/1 and 13/2 double on the same day in a tipster comp. After listening to more feedback on here, I decided I’d like to take the race analysis and tipping seriously and decided to showcase my talents by giving everyone a free month of race analysis and selections in September by email.

As we all know, this month hasn’t gone great for me but so far, I’ve had winners at 11/1,4/1,5/2 and 100/30 at SP. As I’ve made clear on here, this has been my worst month this year with regards to winners and I know I’ve picked the worse time of the year to have a bad month but that’s life!

However, as some of you keep telling me, I’ve had 2nds at 14/1, 14/1, 5/1 and 14/1 and 3rds at 15/2, 12/1, 7/1 and 25/1.

If I had a little more luck this month, one of the seconds would have won (River Falcon still hurts me!) and I would have been in profit for the whole month.

As this month has gone on, I’ve taken on board all of the feedback and I’m sure that I’ll learn from my errors this month and in the future, we can all look forward to consistent long-term profits.

So, I think that brings me up to date with where we are with The Experiment. I look forward to chatting to as many of you as possible across at the new site and whatever happens, I’ll continue to use the blog to document my progress.

Tuesday, 23 September 2008

The Final Countdown.......

I decided against a selection today. I had a couple that were possible bets but the value wasn’t there in my opinion, so I was happy to pass. We did miss another winner (11/2) as a couple of you know but hey, that’s life!

I’ve already saw a couple for tomorrow I like, so expect a few selections tomorrow morning……

Firstly, I’ve decided that the free trial will stop on Friday. The purpose of this month was to show everyone what I can do and to gain some exposure. I don’t think an extra few days will make much difference and I’d rather spend some time across at the new site chatting to anyone who joins me there!

I’ve thought long and hard about the pricing structure for the new site and I don’t think many of you will be too disappointed. I won’t try to sell the site on here as it’s not what my blog is for but I’m hoping that my analysis and selections along with my honesty this month will sell itself!

If everything goes to plan, the site may be up and running tomorrow night. I’m putting the finishing touches to it and all I’m waiting for is Paypal getting back to me to confirm my new account. If I receive confirmation tomorrow, hopefully the appropriate links can be set up and after a few tests, we may be set to launch……

I don’t want to go on too long about the site but it is split into two parts. Without a log in, all you can see is the usual stuff along with an example of a race analysis. Once you are logged into the site, you see all of my analyses, post race reviews, chat room and forum and a few other things for subscribers.

As I’ve said before on here, the purpose of the site is to create a community where racing enthusiasts can discuss horse-racing. Obviously, you get all the analysis and selections from me like other ‘tipping’ sites but I want to create something that’s not matched anywhere else at the moment. As you know, my passion is horse-racing and finding winners and I’d love to be able to help some of you learn to do what I do. If you can pick up 10% of what I know, you’ll do well at this game and you won’t need me for very long!

In time, I want this site to become known as the place to discuss horse-racing and find winners. I’m not going to go chasing or advertising for people to come to the site and join. I want people to come looking for the site and to ask to be part of our community. Without some of you guys, none of this can happen though.

I’ve ‘met’ (emailed!) an amazing amount of people through my time on this blog and I don’t want that to end. Whatever happens, the blog will continue to function although I won’t be using it for race analysis or post race reviews. All of these will continue to be produced across at the new site.

I intend to use the blog to continue to document my daily profits and how the web site is going. Without the blog, I wouldn’t have had the ideas for any of this and I would never have got in contact with some of the people I write to now. Therefore, it’s important for me to continue to document my progress on here. I’m sure lots of you will be keen to see how this next chapter of The Experiment goes and you’ve been with me for 8 months now, so you can stay until the end!

If things go to plan, the website will be usable from tomorrow night. Like any new site, there will be various bugs around and things to fix but I’m hoping it’s not too bad. After that, the next part of The Experiment is out of my hands and it relies on your continued support…….

Monday, 22 September 2008

Please, Please, Please wake me up!

Daily Loss £40.00

I feel like I’ve been in a nightmare for most of this month and I keep hoping I’ll wake up soon and see that I’ve picked a few more winners and made a few different decisions this month.

Well….guess what?

Look back to the 21st of August on here……(

Yip, Tony The Tap was one of my short-listed 4 today. Also, it doesn’t stop there. My first selection today which I was going to have 3 points win on was All In The Red in the seller which won at 5/4. Yip, another day, another fuck-up by me and if it wasn’t for the fact that I’m losing money and losing you guys money at the same time, I’d laugh about it.

As Andrew keeps telling me, anyone can make these mistakes and at least I’m doing it during a trial month but being honest, it is starting to get to me but I won’t let it. I feel like I owe you guys an explanation of why I didn’t select these today as it’s your money I’m wasting as well as mines.

I had a good bit of banter with Andrew concerning All In The Red. Basically, picking a 2/1 shot (it won at 5/4) in 16 runner seller appears to crazy but on my method, this horse was a near certainty today and all it had to do was run anywhere near the last run. It probably ran a little below this run but still won easy enough.

One thing I’m keen on doing next month if there is any demand for it is giving some help about how to unpick sellers and claimers. I find these races fairly easy to unpick but the horses are a low level and sometimes, I’m left scratching my head but if you have the time to analyse these races, it can be like taking candy off a baby.

I made a promise only last week that I wouldn’t select a short-price fav in a large field but that comment was really applied to handicaps. On my reading today, this horse was 5/4 in a 5 horse race and it was 10lbs clear of every horse in that hypothetical 5 horse race, so 5/4 was probably a steal. Hindsight is easy in this game but it was my view pre-race. Andrew talked me out of it and I know deep down he’s right (these horses are too inconsistent to take a short price about) but it still hurts after everything that’s happened this month.

Tony The Tap is more difficult to talk myself around and I feel like a fool. You have probably read my post-race review from the last run and thought, why the fuck didn’t he select that today?

Being honest, I decided that I’d only select two horses today maximum as I know people don’t want lots of selections and it doesn’t do my credibility much good to select 4 losers if that happened on a Monday of all days!

I had already decided that Digital was going to be a selection today and I also knew it was coming off the back of a very poor run. Therefore, I decided that I had to look for a more solid selection and I decided that at the available odds this morning (9/1), I’d pass on Tony The Tap.

Obviously, I regret the decision now but I’m not going to beat myself up too much. All it shows is that when I select a horse and it finishes last (applies to lots this month!), it’s usually because something was wrong with it and not because it was a bad selection!

My first ‘real’ selection today was Digital. As I made clear this morning, when it tried its best, it usually runs very well. I didn’t see the race but from the commentary, it was a never nearer 2nd at 14/1 after meeting trouble in running which doesn’t make me feel any better.

As everyone knows, I have had a shocking month this month and lots of mine have run nowhere near to form. However, off the top of my head and without checking my spreadsheet, I know I’ve had 3 seconds at 14/1 now and it just about sums up my month. Throw in another few placed horses I’ve had at big prices and for most tipsters, they’d be claiming a great month! lol

My other selection today was Star Strider and this was a well beaten 9th and clearly run nowhere near to form. Nothing new there this month but the horse has been placed 3 times off this mark in better races than this on the last 3 runs, so something was amiss today. Getting used to this now, so I won’t complain!

Overall though, another 2 point loss on the day. As you will have noticed, I’ve started to chill a bit and whatever will be will be. I can only do my best and whatever anyone thinks of me and this month, I’ve tried my best and can’t do much more…..

Away to spend time on the website now and get this up and running for later in the week for the grand opening!

Saturday, 20 September 2008

Another error and another lesson....

Daily Profit £28.00

I know people think I’m hard on myself at times but that’s just the way I am. I’ve made lots of errors this month as I’ve admitted and I made another one today.

I sent my analysis to Andrew last night and as usual, his comments were waiting for me when I logged on this morning. Andrew thought that Game Lad was easily my best bet of the day and thought it was a great find by me. However, he was surprised at my staking as he couldn’t understand why I’d gamble 2 points in a 27 runner handicap and only 1 point on Game Lad.

I said it was because River Falcon was a bigger price and I thought that was more value than Game Lad even though Game Lad was more likely to win. Andrew also thought that Let’s Roll and Malapropism didn’t offer much value as the whole world appeared to think they would return to form today, so I had no margin there.

This game is much easier with hindsight but Andrew was 100% spot on today. Why I only had 1 point win on Game Lad is beyond me but after seeing a horse hose up, you always wish you had more on. As I said to Andrew, my confidence has taken a real battering this month and it has affected my confidence in the way I read horses. I've had so many horses like Game Lad run poor this month, it's difficult to keep believing in them!

As I said in the email today, Game Lad had 3 wins from 7 runs on heavy and it really is a different horse on heavy ground. This season, it’s been useless but it’s never had the ground. Today, it had the ground and absolutely dotted up. For a few seconds, I thought it wasn’t going to get a run but the jockey knew he was on the best horse today, so he pulled it around to the outside and still won easily.

One interesting point this month is my 4 winners have all won very easily. I wish I could swap an easy winner for 2 short-head winners but it’s not as easy as that.

My other 3 ran poorly today although River Falcon did better than it seemed. It was on the wrong side of the track (4 of first 5 on other side!) and it finished 10th overall. It didn’t get a good run and it became very tight at a crucial stage on that side. This is 3lbs higher in future races now and we can score that off the list.

Let’s Roll ran a shocking race and I won’t be backing this again. The horse was beaten 20 lengths and it is clearly not the horse it was. It was the first one beaten and came home tailed off.

Someone commented a little while ago that they were surprised a so called ‘expert’ can pick horses who finish tailed off. This morning, I read a piece from Mark Winstanley saying he thought that Let’s Roll had been laid out all season for this race which was my view also pre-race. We were both wrong and he earns a fortune giving advice whereas my advice is free at the moment!

My last selection was Malapropism and this ran a strange race. It attempted to make all, hit a flat spot and then stayed on again to be 8th. I still think this may pop up this season but it needs its visor back on! If anyone from the stable is reading this, put the visor back on this please…….

Today is a good example of why other tipsters don’t use SP betting to track profits!

I gave out Game Lad at 6/1 this morning, it opened 5/1 on the course and was punted down to 10/3 before winning. Obviously, at SP I make a 0.5 points loss on the day but as you will have seen by my profit, I followed my own staking today and won £28, so no one could have possibly lost today I think unless you didn’t get on 5 mins before the off.

That’s me now -11.5 points on the month but being 100% honest, after the month I’ve had, this is starting to not sound too bad! lol

However, I need to get my head around the staking issue before next month as it’s no good giving out winners like today when I only have 1 point on winners and more on losers!

Thanks for the comments and feedback so far. I’m hoping the new website will be up and running fully later in the week if all goes to plan, so everyone can pop across and have a look and let me know what you think.

There are unlikely to be any selections tomorrow as the racing looks poor on the flat. The jumps season hasn’t started in earnest yet and I don’t want to get involved in that just yet.

Looking forward to next week now as I know I can still turn this month around. I've barely got anything right at all month and yet, I'm an 11/1 winner away from getting back to level.....that's my target now. I'm going to work even harder to find the winners I need!

Friday, 19 September 2008

Still slightly embarrassing.....

Daily Profit £256.00

I think most people who read the blog and email me know me pretty well now and I’ll be 100% honest and say I take absolutely zero satisfaction from the fact that Sphinx won and I personally made enough to get in profit this month.

As the title states, I’ve embarrassed myself this month with the way that most horses have ran and picking a 5/2 winner doesn’t help the embarrassment to be honest. I said this to a couple of you today in emails but if Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure how I would have felt.

I’ve been doubting myself enough this month already and on my method of form reading, Sphinx was about as big a certainty as I can get. If Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure I would have believed it and I guess I would have maybe stopped the trial as I couldn’t go on selecting horses knowing that I had managed to get Sphinx beat.

As I’ve admitted on here, I have made a mess of the staking this month as I didn’t know how to value my horses as I’m not use to doing it. I said to one of you today, if I had a staking plan of 0-100, Sphinx was 100 and nothing had been past 10 this month on that scale. A few of you also wrote to ask me what I really thought of Sphinx and apart from saying it was a mortgage job, I tried to say it really should win easily.

I only had about £140 left in my Betfair account and I decided early today to have £100 on this. I ended up with odds of just below 4 after R4 and therefore, it was a nice profit for me. I lost £20 on my other one but it is a welcome win to be honest. If Sphinx had lost, I was £260 down on the month which would have meant I would have had to start playing with tiny stakes, so it’s a needed win that’s for sure!

I suggested a maximum 3 points at 7/2 but the SP was 5/2 so it’s a profit of 7.5 points from that bet at SP.

My other selection today was Burning Incense and I knew very early on from the commentary that it was well beaten. The low numbers dominated and add that to the list of things I have got wrong this month. From memory, I thought high was the place to be on heavy at Ayr but they had no chance today. I don’t think I’ve been the only caught one out by this today, so I won’t complain. 1 point loss from that bet.

On the day then, a profit of 6.5 points and it puts me 11 points down for the month. Clearly, this is still shit but if today had gone wrong, it would have been twice that, so I just need to hang on in there.

As usual, thanks for all the support and encouragement. I think half of my readers had their fingers crossed for Sphinx today. I’d personally like to thank Stan for his comment today as comments like that are like gold dust and it made my month. I had a chuckle to myself after Sphinx had won as Stan called me a Tipping God before he left for his holiday and on his first day back, I have a maximum bet winner!

I’m sure a few people are wishing they had taken a 2 week break and returned today…

A few of you have kindly asked about next month and the business plan I referred to in an earlier post that I was going to be sharing. As you are probably aware, I’ve been working hard on the website when I haven’t been looking at form. I’ll try to issue an email about it this weekend if I get a chance but here’s a quick summary of my business plan for the subscription service:

My intention is to create a community on the website. I want to encourage people to start looking at form and get chatting with other form students about possible selections and winners. The website has a chat room and I’m hoping to include a forum also. My intention is to encourage subscribers to use the chat room as much as possible. I’ll be on hand as much as possible to talk about races and form etc.

The website will also contain all of my past analyses and race reviews. I’m also hoping to issue a weekly report which will have things like horses to follow (If you look back, you’ll see I said Sphinx would win wherever it ran next time!), an update on the week, any site updates, any general information etc.

As I said to you before, I want to create a website to match or beat any existing website that’s out there from other tipsters. I’m also keen on helping others learn to read form by discussing races with me and running any analysis past me. I’ll make some dedicated time in the chat room where I’ll be available to ask any questions regarding my methods or selections etc. As I’ve said before on here, I want to create a Rolls-Royce subscription service!

My intention isn’t to make substantial profits from running a tipster service. I want to help others win money either by following my analysis and selections or learning to do it themselves by me teaching them. However, for it to be worthwhile, I need to be able to cover any costs and cover my time for reading form as well as any time to help out others.

Even allowing for the fact that this month has been an absolute nightmare for me, I’m hoping that as many of my readers will follow me across to the website. I’ll ensure that you can sign up for a month at a time and therefore, the risk to anyone will be very small and you are not obliged to pay for any longer than you will want.

Here’s the smart bit…..

There are two places to position yourself in this market. You can go for the low-end of the market (£10-£50 a month) where you provide a selection and a small amount of analysis or you can go for the top-end of the market (£60-£200 a month) where you have the fancy website with the excellent analysis and selections. From research I’ve undertaken and from what I’ve been told, there isn’t much difference between the selections. The difference lies in the analysis, website and personal service that the better services supply their subscribers.

Clearly, I want to aim at the top end of the market in time and that’s where I think my analysis and selections will ultimately lie. However, if a start-up service started charging people £30 a month for a Rolls-Royce service, they wouldn’t buy it as they wouldn’t believe that someone could offer that service for such a low price.

The one advantage I have over a start-up tipster is the fact that my blog readers know what I can do and therefore, you don’t need to be suspicious regarding the pricing of the service. When I say I’m providing a Rolls-Royce service for a fraction of the price, you know I’m serious.

So, assuming that I get a high enough demand, I’d like to allow my current subscribers the opportunity to buy the service for a very cheap price. Assuming I get enough subscribers to cover my costs from my current subscription list, I’ll then ramp up the price for any newbies who want to join us at our site.

One thing I’ve found this month is that I don’t want people to come along next month if I do well (I’ll be on proofing sites) and think, wow, this guy is good and he’s really cheap. They then use me for cheap tips and back my selections with high stakes and moan when I hit a bad run. I can do without these types and if they can afford to play with big stakes, they can afford to pay top whack for quality analysis and selections.

So, that’s a quick overview. I know this is a little cheeky considering how bad this month has been but to help me with the pricing next month, it would be good to get an indication from people if they are interested in subscribing next month or not. I’d also appreciate any additional feedback (please use email) on my plans and whether you think I’m doing the right thing.

I’ve tried to incorporate as many things into the site as people suggested and I’m hoping that people may take a chance with me for a month at least to allow me to prove myself again since I haven’t done a great job this month!

I’m away to look at tomorrow’s racing now, so I’m hoping I’ve turned the corner!

Thursday, 18 September 2008


Daily Loss £40.00

“Ancient Cross was well backed with the first-time blinkers on, but he was in trouble 2f out and is now fast running out of excuses.”

I’ve read some brilliant quotes in my time in horse-racing but the quote above really is priceless from the RP review. This was the horse that Andrew talked me out of today and if I was going to sum up this month, that quote does it all. lol

Today, I gave another 2 losing selections and I’m beginning to think a trained monkey could do better than me this month.

My first selection was Daring Dream and I’m not exactly sure what happened as the commentary I heard appeared to say it hit the front two furlongs out and then he didn’t mention it again! I then get in from work and see that it was well beaten by 16 lengths ffs, so either the commentator was winding me up or this horse has faded like it’s been shot in the final furlong.

Either way, it’s another well backed loser and other form students must be loving me this month. At the moment, most of mines are being backed (people clearly see the same as me!) but for some unknown reason, they are not seeing out their races. I have managed to get some really well backed and well handicapped horses beaten this month and this goes down as another one.

My other selection was Briannsta and it ran an OK race to be 3rd at 25/1. As luck would have it, I gave it out as a win bet as it was a bit speculative and it goes and gets placed. I could live with this if I was booting home 10/1 winners everyday but I couldn’t pick my nose at the moment, let alone pick a winner!

Here’s the quote from the Racing Post review for this one “Briannsta is extremely well handicapped on his form from a couple of seasons ago and this was a more promising effort. He could soon be of interest again.”

As I said this morning, the reason for backing it was because it was very well handicapped on what it did in 2006 after a mid season break. Unfortunately, as I keep on telling you, we only get one shot with these horses. It was 40/1 this morning in places and next time, assuming it ran in that race again, it would be 6/1. We won't be able to back it next time.

Overall, another disappointing day with a horse running well below form and another well handicapped horse getting beat. A 2 point loss to add to the monthly total and it’s beginning to look bleak!

After a fair bit of soul searching this week, I’ve decided I’m not going to let it worry me too much. I still believe that I’m not doing a lot wrong and I can’t believe the number I'm picking that are being backed heavily pre-race and not running to form.

Today, I was updating my spreadsheet with the results. Being honest, even I’m struggling to believe the results and I’ve picked the fuckers. The number that have run nowhere near to form is astounding and I can’t put my finger on why. I’ll keep plugging away though and I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before I hit some winners.

Thanks for all the recent comments. As I’ve said many times, it’s the comments that make this blog a good read and some of the recent comments have kept my confidence up.

I thought I’d mention the point that Knocker made. On The Handicap Forum in 2 weeks of proofing tips, I made just over 60 points profit. Obviously, I hit winners left, right and centre in that time and the analysis was first class also.

However, anyone who can make 60 points in 2 weeks can obviously lose a lot of points when the winners are not flying home and I’m finding that myself this month. One point I made earlier in the month is the fact that I’m only a few winners away from being a genius and 20 winners away from being useless.

At the moment, I’m obviously much nearer to being useless than a genius (lol) but all I need is a couple of winners. This will always be the case with me and maybe I should have made that clearer at the start of the month. I tried to give as much warnings as possible but maybe I should have spelt it out in large letters or something! It may have saved Mr anonymous a grand….

Away to look at tomorrow’s races now and I’m praying that I find a winner for us!

Tuesday, 16 September 2008

Reply to Anonymous Comment and Feedback

Dear Anonymous,

I really appreciate your feedback. If I had read it before writing tonight’s previous post, I would have mentioned it in the post. However, I think it deserves a post of its own.

Firstly, I don’t use the Betfair forum and never will. I’ve made that clear many times over the past 9 months and I stand by that. However, I have heard about some comments on there and being honest, it makes me cringe. As you know though, a lot of nonsense is written on the forum everyday and some of the comments about me may fall into that category.

I’m keeping track of all the selections and you will be issued with a spreadsheet which details all of the selections and how they have run. I’ll try to update it for the past couple of days tomorrow and either post it on here or send it out to everyone.

One point I’ve made many times on the blog and in emails is that I am not a ‘tipster’ and in no way am I an expert. Not really sure where you have got this impression from but it wasn’t from me I hope. I’m an average guy who works 9-5 who studies horse-racing form in his spare time to make some extra money from gambling.

Before starting this month, I made it clear to everyone on the distribution list and the blog that I recommend they watch the selections this month and not back them. Clearly, I’m not silly enough to believe that people are not following my selections but the intention of this month was purely to give a flavour of what I do to find selections. I did not tell anyone to back my selections.

Another point I have made clear many times on here and in emails is the fact that my method is based purely on finding value selections and in the long-run, this is my edge. In any day, week or month, I am liable to lose. Not only am I liable to lose regularly, with an average SP of over 10/1, I am going to experience the sort of losing runs that would give people nightmares. This needs to be factored in to any long-term staking plan.

However, in the long-run e.g. over 12 months or even 8 years of my short gambling career, I expect to make a profit. I wouldn’t have acquired this interest in horse-racing at the age of 26 if I was as poor at reading form as it appears this month!

As you say, I’m “probably a nice guy”. I like to think so. Importantly, I’m also a fairly intelligent guy and I’m not silly enough to try to pass myself off as some sort of ‘expert’ on horse-racing when I’m clearly not. I have been straight down the line with everyone from when I started this blog and that hasn’t changed in the past month.

“you are not the man” – Not really sure who said I was to be honest but maybe you wanted to believe that I was the answer you had been looking for. Clearly, I am not.

I disagree with your comment about picking one form line. It’s true that I look for the strongest form line in some races but I don’t start out by looking for a form line to read. I read each horse independently and then I may look at a form line if I feel it is the strongest in the race and may help me select the winner.

As you say, some of my horses have run appallingly bad this month. I have been honest about every horse on the blog and haven’t tried to cover this fact up. However, backing at average odds of 10/1 means that not every horse is going to run to form. If they did, I wouldn’t be writing a blog for a start!

If someone had pointed me towards my blog after hearing about ‘how good’ I was, surely it would have made sense to paper trial the selections for the remainder of the month since the selections were free. I would never have leaped in with both feet first and I feel bad for you that you have lost. However, I don’t feel I am to blame.

I don’t think you were necessarily wrong for following my selections. However, why you would bet so much on my selections when I’m not even betting much on them myself is slightly confusing for me. As I’ve said at the start of the month, I really didn’t know how good or bad I would do this month. I still don’t know that to be honest.

Thanks for wishing me luck. I can do with some! I also wish you luck in the future and I would be very wary of following someone who isn’t ‘an expert’ in the future on the back of a recommendation on the Betfair Forum.


Start Sharpening The Knives......

Daily Loss £120.00

Being honest, these blog posts are getting more difficult to write every night and if I was under pressure earlier in the month, I’m buried under it now! lol

I’m running out of words to express my disappointment every night and I’m even struggling to know what to write tonight. I gave out two maximum selections today and I think it’s reaching the stage that if I gave out Dancing Brave in a 0-85 handicap, I’d get the fucker beat by tipping it to win.

My first selection today was Poppy Day. I’m not going to go through a million reasons why this should have run well today but the truth of the matter is that it was beaten over 20 lengths and if it was a 3m chase, that would be respectable but it was a bloody flat race! On its previous career runs, it has never been beaten nearly as far as this and some of these were over a sprit distance when it had no chance and on its debut when it was 200/1.

The horse has clearly run nowhere near to form and all I can think is that something was amiss with it. It finished out the back with lots of horses who didn’t handle the ground but we know Poppy would have handled the ground as it has handled it on every other start of its life, so I really don’t have an explanation.

Someone sent me a note saying it got a poor ride and Andrew suggested its run was unsatisfactory (my tips are bloody unsatisfactory!) but I don’t know what happened. I seem to be saying this every day this month but yet another horse has run nowhere near to form when I’ve selected it. All I can say is that the horse is clearly much better than it showed here but it’s difficult to back it next time with any confidence after that run.

Being honest, this post is just going to get even more depressing as for the second time in two days, I’ve managed to foil a large gamble on a horse by tipping it in the morning! Yesterday, Fever was backed from 14/1 to 5/1 and ran appallingly.

Today, Overrule was strong all day and the world wanted to back this today. When I saw it priced up this morning at 8/1, I was slightly disappointed but the bookies aren’t daft when it comes to these sorts of horses. However, even at 8/1, it was a maximum bet and it was backed all the way down to 5/1 at the off and was remarkably strong.

I only heard the commentary but it appeared that it wasn’t given the best of rides as the winner had already flown by the time Overrule made his move. Andrew confirmed it straight after the race by saying that the jockey waited too long but I can’t comment to be honest. Either way, the horse finished over 2 lengths clear of the remainder in second and if you take away the winner, it won easily but unfortunately, I can’t!

The problem with a horse like this is that you only get one shot at it. Next time, this will be favourite and can’t be backed. It should win but I won’t be backing it. Today was the day to back it and we were all on at a decent price. I don’t quite understand why it traded just over 2 if it was well beaten but it just about sums up my month from hell.

I got in from work tonight and I expected a barrage of abuse in emails. Being honest, anyone who writes on a blog that he has found two amazing bets and both lose, deserves to take a bit of stick. However, when I checked my emails, I had two supportive emails saying to just keep what I’m doing and the profits will roll in!

Being honest, it amazed me to be honest and I’m slightly embarrassed by it. I’ve decided to give a free trial of tips in a month when I’ve barely managed to select a horse that’s run well let alone a winner. How people can see past this is beyond me and it only makes me more determined to work harder in the remainder of the month.

Andrew questioned my staking today and I said I’d quickly mention it on here. Being honest, selecting two 3 point bets in one day smacks of desperation slightly but it definitely wasn’t. One thing I made clear at the start of the month is that I didn’t know how my staking plan would work. I have never used a 3 point staking system and I didn’t know when a 3 point bet would come along. So far this month, I’ve give four 3 point bets and all four have lost now!!!!!

Andrew made a good point about Fort Churchill and I know this myself. This should have been a 2 point bet and so should my other winner. However, by only putting 1 point win on them, it’s actually helped create the poor position I’m in now.

As I said to Andrew, I pick different types of horses and as the month has gone on, I’ve started to learn about the way I should stake them. When I find horses that have the correct profile, correct form and correct odds, these need to be 3 point bets.

Today, both of these horses had all of the above and therefore, they were definitely 3 point bets. Fever also had all of the attributes yesterday and so did my other 3 point bet.

My error this month (one of many!) has been staking too many points on speculative horses. So far, none of these have won and it’s cost me a lot of points and is costing everyone a lot of money. However, the majority of these have been value bets and therefore, if I continue with the current strategy, in the long-run, everything will all be rosy!

Later this month, I’ll try to define a little scale that I will use to judge stakes next month. The number of ticks that the horse meets will define the staking. This is basically what I do now but I compute it all in my head and I can do with sharing the thoughts with everyone.

I should probably end by saying that I’m now down 15.5 points on the month. Not only that, I’m now in danger of having my second losing month of The Experiment.

The only way I know to improve the situation is to continue analysing races as I currently do and hope that I start to select some winners again. I know my method works and in the long-term, I don’t see an issue but as I said at the start of the month, I want to be judged on this month’s analysis and selections. Time is still on my side though, so I’ll keep grinding away and looking for some winners.

The month from hell continues…….

Monday, 15 September 2008

In a better mood.........

Daily Loss £40.00

Before I start tonight’s post, I’m in a slightly better mood due to the fact that two of the best bets of the whole flat turf season run on the same day tomorrow. It’s as if it’s written in the stars that I pick two 20/1 winners tomorrow but we’ll see……

Being honest, today will go down as my worst day this month as I’ve managed to haemorrhage us another 5 points. If Saturday was a nightmare losing 3.5 points, then today must really be bad! I’ve lost 8.5 points in two days and I’m staring a nightmare month in the face to be honest.

Unlike Saturday, I didn’t do a lot wrong today. I’m starting to feel like I should put a disclaimer on every email saying “This selection assumes that the horse will run to form, if it doesn’t run to form, it won’t win.”

Today, I analysed a form line in the 4.50 race. It involved horse A, horse B and horse C. Last time, A beat B by 1 length and B beat C by1 length. B had the worst draw and was slightly unlucky in running. C had a nightmare passage in the race. A had the best draw, got the rails run and got all the splits.

Subsequently, B has run a blinder in a much better race and performed about 4lbs above his rating. Today, they all met off the same mark as before. Who should win today?

I plumped for horses B and C to gain revenge on A and due to the fact that B has since run 4lbs above his rating, all he had to do was repeat that run and he would win today. B was the selection.

As it turns out, A wins the race at 11/2, C runs a great race and trades at 1.5 IR and B finishes a never nearer 5th and is well beaten by the other two.

Annoyingly, B has run nowhere near the last run and has performed about 6lbs below the last run and clearly, hasn’t even run to the same form as the previous race.

What chance have I got? Yet another selection runs poorly for me……

All day, I’ve been thinking about the fact I put up that horse up as a selection. One point I’ve made clear on here before is that I honestly can’t judge the value regarding these horses. I’ll be honest with everyone and this may annoy a few of you but I didn’t back that today. I can’t bring myself to back a horse in a 14 runner race at 2/1.

However, the reason I gave it as a selection is purely down to the fact it should have won if it ran to form. Therefore, if we ran that race 10 times and that horse ran to form, it would have won 8 times I guess, so 4/5 was maybe the correct price. As today showed though, and as I know myself, horses are not machines.

I’m not sure if people will agree with this but I’ve made a decision that I’ll never select a short-priced favourite as a selection when I’m giving selections. I can’t really define ‘short’ as it depends on the race but I won’t ever select a 2/1 chance in a 14 runner race again that’s for sure. This won’t please everyone but its how I feel.

Overall, another nightmare race and 2 points lost for me.

My second selection just about sums up my month if I’m honest. I issued the email today at 9.45am as soon as I saw that a couple of bookmakers had priced up Fever at 14/1 in the 5.20 race. I said this to a few of you in emails today but I had a feeling that it would start around 9/2 (it started at 5/1).

As I suggested this morning, this was an attempt at a stable coup by Mick Easterby and I’ve witnessed lots of these across the years. His strike rate is usually about 50% for these types when they are punted. Today, this has finished a well beaten 8th and apart from holding my hands up, what else can I say.

I said this morning that I couldn’t guarantee the horse would win or run well but I knew that the bookmakers had made a boob by pricing it up as a 14/1 chance. It was no 14/1 chance!

In my opinion, this horse was the best bet this month at 14/1. The fact it ran shit shouldn’t come into it to be honest as I can’t be held responsible for the fact that horses are not running to form. If this ran to the mark that it is capable of, it would have won today and Mick will know this also.

Overall, a 3 point loss which really is a killer to be honest and I hope some of you traded in the early price on Betfair to reduce the risk and increase the odds. I lost £40 on the race which was £30 on the place market and £10 on the win market as I traded in £20 at 6.8 having backed at 13.5.

I don’t feel too bad tonight as in the first race, I narrowed it down to 3, got the right form line and my selection ran below form. If it had run to form, it would have won. In the second race, I spotted the sort of thing that very few people in this game can spot but annoyingly, for about the umpteenth time this month, my horse has run well below expectations.

I will have 2 selections tomorrow and both will be maximum bets. To have 2 maximum bets in one day is a first for me and being honest, both of these may be the best bets of the whole season (assuming they win which means they overtake my previous best bets this season!)

Both are also likely to be massive punts if I’m right, so expect an early email once I see the first show tomorrow. The Sporting Life has priced them up at 14/1 and 20/1. The Racing Post has them priced up at 10/1 and 20/1.

My only decision is whether we go for win bets or each-way bets but I’ll be dictated by the odds. The ironic thing about tomorrow is the fact that I thought I’d have to wait a long time to back these two and they both appear on the same day which amazes me! The fact that I'm 9 points down on the month means I'm glad they are running!

Maybe it’s a sign that my luck is about to change………..

Saturday, 13 September 2008

Great Graeme....

Daily Loss £46.25

When I logged off MSN tonight at 5.50pm, Andrew said to me “whatever you do, don’t give yourself too hard a time on the blog. People will understand and anyone could have made these errors. At least you got yourself in that position. Remember next month as people are starting to get pissed off with your drive and determination to succeed and they aren’t even paying for the tips yet.”

Well, I’m going to go against Andrew’s advice and write about the way I’m feeling. I’ve always been honest on here and it’s partly why I keep the blog.
So, cover your ears now….

I’m a fuc*ing muppet. I really am. An absolute fuc*ing idiot. I made some absolutely massive errors today and I felt physically sick after a couple of races today, so I’m not too happy tonight. I deliberately didn’t write this post earlier tonight as I was in danger of going over the top!

Below is the email I wrote to Andrew last night at 11.37pm:

Right mate,

Analysis will be done tomorrow morning once I see the odds of these but at the moment....

2.20 Good - Salient (backed it last time to make all but faded tamely as couldn't get easy lead, may get easy lead tomorrow), Eisteddfod (first time it has had optimal conditions all season and easiest race for a good few years) Swaying towards Eisteddfod but if Salient is 20/1+, I'd go for that tbh.
3.55 Good - I know you'll fancy this one too but William's Way is obvious. I'd have this as 10/1 and it should be 16/1+ tomorrow, so easy each-way bet. Will come late as it will sit in last place I guess and needs luck but it should run well.
5.05 Good - Our Piccadilly is head and shoulders above this lot and will win if it repeats last run. Worried about price though and I'll probably pass if it's priced up as favourite.
5.40 Good - Kinsya (probably my best bet - I can't see anything else that goes on the ground and is as well handicapped and I'll back each-way - 1 danger would be fav but I'd lay this as won't like ground)
4.40 Chester - I really fancy Green Park here but it's drawn in 9 which will stop it I guess. It's the best horse though but not always the case the best wins at Chester. Thunder Bay (well handicpped and not had best of luck last twice), would maybe be the call with issues with lots in here IMO and none look solid due to trip/ground/draw apart from this one. Draw fucked it for Green Park which is really annoying.
5.15 C - Oakfranca seems to be improving and should win but price worries me. Wouldn't back it if its too short.
2.05 Donc - River Falcon (been waiting for weeks to back this now and missed a good few meetings abandoned. Last twice, caught my eye and a pretty fresh horse now. 7th last year and a good bit lower now. We all know the way it runs but if it gets breaks and they come back to him, can win today) Will finish late and nail them on the line. :)
3.45 - I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob's Surprise. I'll probably plump for Bob's as it should be a good price and on a form line, holds other one. Arabian won it last year and should show it's best form this season but could be too short I guess.
4.15 - Not got a clue here mate and I'll pass. Looks tricky and too many improvers IMO.
5.25- Must be getting tired as I couldn't find anything here. The Snatcher stood out but too far out the handicap, so I can't back it.
I'll be up early and I'll do analysis for each one. Fancy River Falcon for 1 point each-way and maybe Kinsya for 1 point each-way but apart from that, all have to be 1 point bets I guess. Bit of a bumper day if I get the prices I want but similar to most services on a Saturday, so not too worried.



After seeing the prices this morning, I decided on 6 bets and gambled 8 points in total.

Here’s my view on each one (with a look back at my email last night to A):

2.20 Good – I plumped for Eisteddfod here as I thought it may return to form. I had 1 point win and to be honest, it ran poorly. It travelled OK but later events showed that it had no chance on the ground where it races as they started coming across to the other rail after this race. I wouldn’t discount this from running better but it disappointed me.

The reason I didn’t select Salient today was that I thought that 14/1 wasn’t great when I looked this morning and my other one was a more solid bet. Salient went off at 20/1 and traded 1.4 IR before just getting caught on the line. I was so relieved it lost to be honest but things get worse later…..

3.55 Good – Williams Way was held up in stone last and being honest, it never had a chance. I backed at 75 after 4f and it was a hopeless task. It finished a never nearer 8th and isn’t one to write off but they have to give it a chance. I joked last night they’d hold it up last and I was right! No complains here and another 1 point lost.

5.05 Good – My first big error (but about my 5th on the day as it happened). I had selected Our Picadilly here and being honest, it was so obvious for my method, it was embarrassing. However, in my wisdom this morning, I thought 7/2 was too short and I’d pass on the one. Absolutely pisses up on the bridle at 3/1. Great Graeme! No points lost though….

5.40 Good – Probably my best bet of the day. My decision this morning was how to stake this. I went for 2 points win and that really was the final straw for the day. Finished 3rd at 8/1 and was given an absolutely shocking ride IMO. It was always travelling as well as the winner but on the outside, the jockey managed to find a bit of trouble which gave the winner first run. Kinsya was full of running at the end and would have been second in another 100 yards.

As usual, another horse returns to form when I select it but 2 points lost. I’m really annoyed I didn’t say each-way as I said each-way last night. Great Graeme. 2 points lost.

4.40 Chester – The race where I felt really sick. Green Park was such an obvious horse here as it returned to form last time and was nailed on to run well. I had a huge issue with the draw and this morning, Andrew said I shouldn’t be afraid of the draw as it finishes late and may get up in time. I should have listened but no, I go for 1 point on Thunder Bay which ran a crappy race as it had the rail the whole way but wasn’t good enough.

Missing a 9/1 winner when I really fancy a horse hurts to be honest and I still can’t believe I didn’t back it. 1 point loss. Great Graeme.

5.15 Chester – I felt sick after this race but by this time, I knew it was going to win before the race and I backed it. I discounted Oakfranca this morning as it looked too short IMO and I was banging my desk when it hosed up by 8 lengths. What a fuc*ing numpty I am. Seriously. A 4/1 winner passes me by again due to the fact I won’t back short priced horses. It’s becoming a bit of a joke to be honest. Great Graeme.

2.05 Doncaster – The only race that pleased me today and I managed to win a few quid on River Falcon here as I laid off in the photo. I only kept £50 profit on the field and the rest on this as I thought it had won tbh but I even got that wrong. I backed it at 20 on Betfair and it traded at 1.6 or so, so traders would have been happy. Great Graeme.

I had 1 point each-way on it, so it’s a profit of 2.5 points.

3.45 Doncaster – Another cock-up here as I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob’s Surprise. I plumped for Bob’s Surprise as it was too high a price and I stand by this decision. I’d take that every time at the odds. As it turned out, it was the first horse beat and it ran a stinker (not for the first time I’ve selected one of these recently!)

Obviously, it didn’t make me feel any better that Arabian Gleam won. I remember thing at that point in the day it could be a bad day today. Subsequent events showed that’s the biggest understatement on this whole blog! Great Graeme.

4.15 and 5.25 races I had no idea and don’t even care about the results at the moment.

By my reckoning, that’s a loss of 3.5 points on the day and this is getting ridiculous now. I know I can’t always get these decisions right about which horse to back but today was an embarrassment for me to be honest and Andrew could only laugh as the day went on. I still haven’t laughed yet to be honest and I’m fuming at myself.

Selecting the wrong horse in a race will always happen to me from time to time and I’ve proved that a lot on here recently. Not selecting two horses that piss up at 3/1 and 4/1 because they are too short is like a kick in the stomach to be honest and I’m so annoyed with myself. Really annoyed………..

I spent time working on my website design today between races but if I have any more days like today, I doubt I can even go ahead with next month. I need to get my finger out and start selecting the right horse to tip and stop missing out on winners as it’s really getting to me.

I know this is maybe dreaming slightly but given that email last night, I could have had winners at 3/1,4/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 2nds at 14/1 and 20/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 from 8 selections.

Instead I ended up with a 2nd at 14/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 and 4 losers who ran shit. Great Graeme!

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s races and I don’t think I see any selections, so we’ll pass I think. I’ll issue the note tomorrow morning in case I dream up a selection.

Friday, 12 September 2008

What's going on?

Daily Loss £50.00

Going to keep this post really short as there seems plenty of races tomorrow for me to try to unpick and my time is better spent looking at them.

Today was a really strange day and at the moment, I’m scratching my head a fair amount as I’m not understanding some of the results. I’ve mentioned this to a few of you but I always check the results every day for the previous day’s handicaps to check that I could have selected the winner and to find any potential form lines worth watching. History has shown me that I’ll be able to read 3 in 4 races right but at the moment, I’m struggling.

I said this to Andrew twice today which is amazing but the first horse I ruled out in two of my races won today. Not only did I rule them out, I gave them absolutely no chance!

My first selection was Corridor Creeper and for about the 5th or 6th time this month, one of mines has run very poor. If I was training these tips, I’d be closing my stable down for a few weeks on suspicion of something being wrong as some are running so far below form, it’s unreal.

This finished a well beaten second last and for a horse who likes to lead, it didn’t show any sparkle from what I heard on the commentary. I had this down as a great bet as all it had to do was repeat the last run but clearly, it’s not run within a stone of this run which is frustrating.

The winner was Blessed Place at 33/1 and by my calculation, this has produced a lifetime best at the age of 8 by quite a fair way as it was out of the handicap! Seriously, if you gave me 12 picks in that race, I wouldn’t have gone for this one. 33/1 wasn’t even a good price pre-race!

My second selection was Midnight Muse and it was a huge drifter on Betfair and pre-race. It started at 16/1 which was a huge price and it ran OK to finish 4th. It tried to make all I think and it got swallowed up close home. Again, this is disappointing and the horse continues to frustrate me somewhat. It’s now scratched from the list until it shows more.

The winner had been 12th of 13, 14th of 14 and 14th of 16 and beaten more than 14 lengths every time on its last 3 starts. My pre-race comment last night against the winner was “you’re having a laugh”. Well, the joke was on me I’m afraid and it won at 28/1…..

The third selection was Hawaana and unlike the other two, this proved fairly strong pre-race and I wasn’t the only person who thought it would run well. It ran an OK race to be 4th at 8/1 but it disapointed me to be honest. The winner was easier to select than the other two winners and it wasn’t ruled out at the first stage but it just didn’t look well handicapped today. I heard it won very cosily and it has produced a lifetime best also to win at 15/2.

Overall, a bit of a nightmare day and it’s proving a difficult month. I can’t believe I read Corridor Creeper wrong today to be honest and the fact that Cape Royal ran really well suggests to me that the trainer will be scratching his head also at the run.

Today is probably a good example of why I don’t bet each way as it was another two 4ths to add to the results and I’ve had more 4ths than anything else this month! (excluding horses who run below par and finish second last!)

One thing I made clear at the start of the month is that I’d like to compare myself to other tipsters and how they do to judge how I’m doing this month. Obviously, some of the readers will know far better than me but if I do find that people are finding these winners and I’m not, I’ll need to go back to the drawing board and understand what I’m doing wrong!

On a similar point, I got a nice email today from someone saying that Spotlight from the Racing Post (who I think is a really great form analyst) has only selected the winner of one of my 14 races this month before today and is -11 points for the month. This made me smile again and maybe I need to start selecting the right races to unpick as at the moment, no one is unpicking these races very well including me!

(I see Bollin Felix was second in a big handicap today. I can see why I read the form line wrong with Sphinx on Sunday now and therefore, Sphinx must rate a near certainty over 1m 6f when it runs next time if it runs to the same form again!)

Thursday, 11 September 2008

A bit of a wry smile.....

Daily Profit £58.00

I’m writing this post at 8pm tonight and after seeing the result of the 6.50 race tonight, I have a bit of wry smile.

Right, this could get a little confusing, but I’ll try to explain. My expertise is analysing races and selecting horses who are out of form but who I feel will be coming back to form soon. These are always the horses I look for and I’ve said that many times on here and anyone who has been following my analysis can probably see what I do.

Lately, I’ve been apparently reading lots of horses wrong and it’s been a little confusing and disheartening for me if I’m honest. I’m not a very confident person and it doesn’t take much for me to start to doubt myself and what I know. I’ve been scratching my head a fair amount over the past month as I appear to have been reading some horses badly wrong.

After seeing the 6.50 result, and the fact that Piccolo Diamante won at 16/1, I really don’t know why I ever listen to any of the doubters (including me!). If you look back at the 17th of August, you’ll see I put this up as a potential dark horse and annoyingly, it finished tailed off (not the first time I’ve selected a tailed off horse lately!). Next run, it pops up at 16/1.

This afternoon, I saw that Gift Horse was 2nd at 12/1. Look at the 22nd of August post when it ran poorly.

I’ve had Wadnagin last night, Franksalot and a few others recently who have been well below par when I selected it and then next run, shock horror, it pops up a massive price and shows its true form.

I’ve taken lots of unfair and unnecessary stick on this blog for picking horses like this recently and when I saw that horse won tonight, it made me smile…..

In case you’re wondering, I did notice Piccolo and Gift Horse last night but when you are on a losing run of 9, picking two horses that you selected last time and both running poorly and letting you down, doesn’t really appeal to me as a possible selection. If I had been doing well this month, I would have probably gone for both of these and taken a chance but now is the time for solid selections to get me back on track. We can save these 16/1 winners for next month!

OK, I selected two horses today. Before I mention the first one, I talked about a great form line between this horse and Space Pirate which ran in the earlier race. I was shocked to see Space Pirate not finish in the first 3 home but I was actually very pleased when I saw that it finished tailed off stone last! Clearly, something was amiss today with it, so the form line became meaningless.

In the 5.00, my selection was Croeso Crusan. It was 13/2 this morning and it opened 6/1 on course but was backed down to 4/1 favourite (very short IMO). However, as I suggested this morning, this horse is improving fast and it absolutely hosed up I believe. The SP isn’t great and I’m unlikely to ever tip many 4/1 winners but when you need a winner, they are all welcome.

As a quick aside, a few people have been trying their hand at analysing races using my sort of systematic approach. Today, 3 people sent me an analysis for this race and they all selected the same horse at odds of 10/1. Last night, I narrowed the race down to 2 runners as I told them all and they had all selected my other horse.

It gave me great satisfaction that the horse finished second and as I said to one, I actually backed both today due to the fact that 3 people independently backed up my view that it was a good bet. One of the three was actually showing off and selected the first 3 home today! I think he backed them all to win and place, so he would have had a great return on the race. Well done mate.

Without trying to plug next month too much, one thing I’m really keen on is sharing views with people and subscribers sharing views with each other. I’m making sure that a chat room will be on my website and I think it could prove to be a great tool for everyone next month. Sorry, no more plugs I promise!

My second selection was in the 5.30 and I plumped for Caustic Wit. I read the race not too badly I believe as I narrowed it down to the two Malcolm Saunders’ horses. The other one won at 11/4 which is a shame but mines ran a poor race to be honest.

My rationale for selecting it was based on the fact it was well handicapped, ran an OK race last time when badly drawn, last time was its first run for 2 months and it should have improved from it and lastly but most importantly, it was Mickey Fenton’s only ride today.

I don’t want to talk about the jockey thing too much as some people can place too much emphasis on this sort of thing but I strongly believe that a jockey is not going to ride in the last race at a track for his only ride of the day unless he has been told it has a chance. Clearly, whoever told him that was talking nonsense (lol) but I don’t regret the decision to back it. I regret not backing the other one as well to be honest but I’m not perfect!

After the trials and tribulations of this month, I’m actually in 2 points profit again. I know not everyone will be appreciating the fact that my selections that have run poor have subsequently run well next time but it’s this sort of thing that gives me great confidence if I’m honest. Despite having had a nightmare month and very little going right for me, I’m in profit for the time being at least.

Away to look at tomorrow’s race cards now, so hoping to find us a selection or two!