Tuesday, 9 September 2008

Annoying Day!

Daily Profit £3.04

I’m not too disappointed with the analysis today if I’m being 100% honest and on a different day, it could have been a different story but I’m posting a 6 point loss today to SP which is a nightmare!

I was off work this afternoon, so I managed to watch all of the races live for once. I was covering my eyes at times though, so I would have been better off at work!

I was up late last night doing the form analysis and I looked at 6 races in detail. As it turned out (I didn’t know this morning), in all 3 of the other races, my selection was a non-runner. Therefore, the only thing I got right was choosing which 3 selections to tip!

However, going by the results, I wish all of them were non-runners!

OK, in the 2.00 at Beverly, I couldn’t separate Morristown Music and Mormeatic. I suggested 1 point win on both at double figure odds.

My issue at Beverly is always the draw. On firm, you want a high number and on heavy, the best ground could be anywhere. As it turned out, the near rail (right as you look) was like a swimming pool and any horse which tried to come up there in the first race had no chance.

Mormeatic shot out the gates and booked that position! Amazingly, it traded less than 4 which is making me chuckle as BF traders are doing well at the moment and I’m doing sh*t which is highly ironic giving my ideas on BF trading in the past and how I think I can make money by backing and trading IR!

The other horse I tipped was drawn in the right place but he ended up finishing a never nearer 3rd at 12/1. His form figures coming into the race were 11th of 13, 9th of 12, 13th of 16, 11th of 14 and 15th of 16 last time beaten 31 lengths!

However, I guessed he’d show much improved form today and I was right. However, it’s not much good for us as he now has a never nearer 3rd next to his name and everyone knows he’s in form. You only get one shot at these sorts of horses and we had ours today…..

I ruled out the first two horses home and being honest, I’d do so again. I said the winner wasn’t badly handicapped and I also said it wasn’t that well handicapped either. I ruled it out purely on the fact it had run twice on soft ground and finished 6th of 6 and 8th of 14. Obviously, it actually needed softer ground and not firmer ground and it showed much improved form today.

My issue with the second was the simple fact it had been beaten 6 times in the last 9 runs off this mark. It has been placed a few times off this mark and I wasn’t surprised to see it finish second. Overall, I’m always happy to take horses on at 4/1 fav who have been beaten lots of times recently off the same mark. Why should it suddenly improve to win?

Overall, not a great race I’m afraid and I read it wrong quite badly by missing out the winner at the earliest stage of my analysis. On heavy ground, you’re forced to look for soft ground horses and this wasn’t one pre-race I thought….

I lost £40 on the race by backing both of mines and leaving no lays!

My first 3 point bet of the month ran in the 3.20 race. From my analysis, only a handful of horses could handle the ground and for an 18 runner race, it didn’t look too competitive as lots couldn’t win.

I hate backing horses Each-Way as you have probably managed to guess but I really couldn’t see this not being in the first four today. As it turned out, it fell out the stalls, gave them a good start (difficult to do on soft ground IMO) and stayed on late to finish a never nearer 4th but beaten miles.

Annoyingly, with 5 non-runners, only 13 went to post and anyone who backed this with a bookmaker lost. I made £15 on the race which was a bonus to be honest as I backed it to place and win on Betfair, so it doesn’t give me much satisfaction to say I made a little…..

My final selection was Poppy Day in the 5.00 race. I backed it at 50+ to win and at 6.8 to place on Betfair (first 4 places) and it ran an OK race and was finishing fast in 5th place at 33/1.

I made my feelings clear this morning about this horse and it ran the sort of race I thought it would. It all depends on what the Racing Post analyst makes of the race but in my opinion, the horse lost its position mid race, was actually last at one stage, and then as soon as they straightened up, it ran like it was Shergar. It finished 5th having been miles back and in my opinion, over a longer trip and on this ground, it may hose up if Mick can find another easy race like this one. Has the price gone now?

I was close to collecting on the place bet but I made £38 profit as it traded at 4 IR (some people got carried away with it finishing fast and the other horse that looked like it that finished fast and just lost). Anyway, not complaining and it makes it a poor day a little better.

As I hinted at last night, the traders on Betfair who are trading my horses IR after backing pre-race are kicking my ass this month and today was another example!

Anyone backing and laying could have won a fair amount helped by the last race and anyone backing each-way on Betfair collected on the main bet, but it will do down as the most disappointing day this month for me. I won £28.04 on the last race to put me in a small profit for the day.

A 6 point loss puts me into a loss this month to SP betting and my strike rate for winners is looking poor at the moment. Very poor if I’m honest! All I can do is keep plugging away and reading races as I do and we’ll turn the corner soon.

4 selections today finished 3rd at 12/1, well beaten at 9/1, 4th at 9/1 and 5th at 33/1.

It’s not disastrous stuff but I know I need to do better. Lucky this is a free month….LOL

Incidentally, I’ve been informed that some people have been plugging the blog on Betfair which is nice but it also means that we will get some of the Betfair idiots trying to post comments on here I guess, so we should beware…….. If we see any, just ignore them!

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I believe that the mortgage option is the correct finance option for me as it is basically a risk-free option. If The Experiment fails, I could easily afford to be penalised by paying an extra £100 a month towards my mortgage"

Just do us a favour and back them yourself!

Anonymous said...

G,
On top of everything else, I think that you (and everyone else for that matter !) are currently being thwarted by the weather…
The going today, at Beverely in particular, was clearly ridiculous (and consequently unreadable)… None of the jockeys had any idea where the best ground was – so it just turns things into a lottery…
In theory, a few horses can be discounted when the going gets really bad – but in truth, most of these will be withdrawn, if their trainers don’t think they will go in it…
I don’t think there is a satisfactory answer to the situation – other than to sit and wait… But when the clock is ticking on your month, I guess that’s not a great position to be in !
GL !!
A.

bettingbiz said...

Just remember Graeme there is no rush and no pressure, I know you are really keen to deliver quality selections and you will get many appreciative members long term. Its a hard game to be in and you will also get plenty of abuse as that unfortunately is the nature of the beast. Tipsters get alot of bad press and in a lot of cases it is warranted but imagine if you have one bad month or 2 or 3. Whilst punting full time punting i had 4 losing months in 2007 partly due to the deluge and also due to bhb legislation changes effecting racing. Luckily this was recovered from but there are very few clients that would stay with a service through even one bad month. One tipster who shall remain nameless showed a loss over the whole of 2007 yet he has landed afew hundred points this annum however he is desperate for clients due to last year. the average punter sees a losing week as poor and a losing month as tragedy. You will probably keep very small % of members who join but they will be the members you want, investors who look at the long term.
What you do is quality Graeme just let the value keep coming and long term a decent picture will emerge

Dan said...

Graeme,

This is no consolation to you or some readers but I'm 22 points in profit this month from trading your selections and backing in running. You appear to be selecting drifters which are starting at higher odds on Betfair and so far, most are trading very low, so making a profit is very easy.

Today,selecting a 65 shot -20 minutes to race- that starts at 38 and trades at 4 for a large sum is a dream for a trader. Surprised you only made £38 so I'm not sure what you were doing? Keep up the analysis and you'll get the rewards.

Dan

Anonymous said...

I’m with Dan on this ! I don’t want to piss off your other readers either – but as a trader, I’m finding your analysis is like gold dust ! So many of your selections trade really low IR – even on a relatively poor day like today, 2 of the 4 traded well below half their SP. Your ability to analyse a race sets you apart…
Like has been said on here before, there are many ways to skin a cat - keep it up !!
Pat.

Steve said...

Graeme,

Not wanting to post on here every night gloating as I'm sure its grating on you and others but as the comments above state, the analysis is proving a licence to print money as I’ve told you.

You know my strategy is to make a little every race but in the final race today, I decided I would ask for odds of 6/1 since I got 65 pre-race. I got that no problem and for 2 points too, it proved a very good day.

Overall, my detailed records show a profit of 28.5 points this month and we are on the 9th day of the month.

Not much to add.

Steve

Graeme Dand said...

A,

Sitting and waiting for bankers to appear sounds nice but doesn't always work out like that mate.

I agree that Beverly was a lottery today but things are just not dropping into place at the moment. The analysis appears to be helping traders though, so not all bad!

If the point of the game was to find overpriced horses who run eye-catching races and trade low in running, I'd be the best in the business!

G

Graeme Dand said...

Cheers Bettingbiz.

I know some are seeing the analysis as quality and others are seeing it as needless waffle but I know the analysis is useful to the right people. Just need to find out who!

G

Graeme Dand said...

Dan, Pat, Steve,

If I was advertising a service where I give horses to lay low in running and lose, I’d use you guys to advertise the site!

It’s pleasing in a way to see the horses running well but at the moment, I can do with some winners to be honest.

The returns so far for traders have been crazy but I don’t think they’ll stay at that level in the long-run…they can’t!!!!

Good luck with it though and keep me up to date with how it is going.

Graeme

Anonymous said...

what are you planning to run here? a tipping site or a trading site?

make up your mind, are you suggesting these horses are backed as a pure win bets? or advising them as a back to lay in running?

mixed messages coming over! to be honest

Anthony said...

I can see the last commenter's point but I think Graeme's picking winners with value in the long run. What others are doing with that information is up to them.
Keep it up and don't try to force the winners, it'll eat away at your edge.

Graeme Dand said...

Anonymous, Anthony,

I'll answer that tonight in a blog post!

G