Friday, 5 September 2008

Comments please......

As most readers will know, my selection today was a non-runner. I would be very grateful if no one mentioned the name of the selection on the blog. As you will have guessed, I thought this was a near certainty today and I don’t want the world to know about it.

The horse is not entered to run anywhere in the next week, so we will need to be patient.

I’ve decided to do a post tonight to try to get some feedback from readers about what they think I should do next month. Feel free to post comments on here or for a more private discussion, drop me a note to my hotmail account and I’ll reply through that.

As I’ve made clear on here, it is ultimately my intention to use my knowledge to help others make a decent profit from this game. In return, I’d hope to gain an extra income stream as a reward.

As you know, I work full-time but even so, I can’t really afford to gamble, so I know I can’t make this game pay at the moment. I also don’t have the time to trade apart from a Saturday which isn’t much good, so I know my income from Betfair isn’t going to be very much.

However, what I do have is a real passion and skill for analysing races and of course, I can make time every night to study form. I initially agreed to give everyone a trial of tips and analysis for a month so I can prove that I know what I’m talking about and to convince people that I’m not trying to con anyone.

Anyone who has been reading the blog from the beginning or even for the past few months has probably got to know me quite well and I’ve been in contact with many of you through emails at various times.

I received an email from a reader last night who told me to go back and read the comment that Keith Driscoll made a few months ago. For those that didn’t see it, Keith had obviously spent time looking at the Handicap Forum where I was posting up race analyses on a daily basis for over a month. In a two week spell, I made 61 points profit from 39 races from one point wins. He used the quote “there are very few flat form-book readers who are as bright as you.”

Keith is a professional gambler I believe who also runs a tipping site. The gist of his comment was that I was wasting my time trading and that I should be trying to find a professional punter to bankroll my selections or asking a tipping site to give me a trial so that I can sell tips.

I dismissed his comment at the time to be honest as I had no intention of trying to join a tipping site as I know most of them just exploit their customers. I also didn’t like the tone of Keith’s email and I’m sure he thought he could exploit me by giving him free tips for his tipping services.

As it turns out, I think Keith was ultimately right in his assessment of my trading. You don’t need my knowledge to scalp on Betfair and I don’t think it helps me in the slightest. On the other hand, I don’t want to join a tipping service and get paid peanuts for giving them selections and analysis every day. As you will have guessed, I’m trying to cut out the middle man by providing the tips myself.

This week is probably a great example of why I need to sell my analysis and tips to people. I have won £60 this week from gambling and being honest, I must have put about 12+ hours work into form study and selections as well as writing up the analysis and sending out the emails.

I’d be better off packing in the blog and the whole Betfair experience and getting a job stacking shelves in the evenings to earn a few extra bob!

However, I know from the emails and comments that others have made money from my analysis and selections this week. Being honest, without sounding smart, I’ve given 6 selections and 5 have traded well below half in running. I’ve also analysed another 6 horses and all 6 have traded below half IR and 3 of them were in the same bloody race! I’ve also given an 11/1 as a selection and a 20/1 when I narrowed it down to 4 possible winners.

In any race where I have narrowed the field down, I’ve always selected the winner and therefore, you could have laid every horse in the field that I said couldn’t win!!!

I’ve had emails from people saying that they are laying multiple horses I dismiss, people are laying the shorter priced horses I dismiss, some people are trading my selections to lay off IR, some are betting on multiple selections, some are following my staking plan and gambling etc.

One thing I’ve been really keen on saying on here is that there are many ways to skin a cat on Betfair. Using my analysis, this is definitely true. Some people will have been disappointed I’ve only had 1 winner thus far but I’ve not had much luck in my opinion, so I’m not too worried about how it’s going. 1 winner from 6 selections isn't too bad......

Obviously, I need to start thinking about what will happen from next month. Assuming I get on OK for the remainder of this month, I can’t go on spending 20+ hours a week doing race analysis and sending out free information and maintaining my blog.

I’ve also been helping a few people out with regards to form reading through emails over the past month or so and I think there is also maybe a demand for people to get a more personal service where they can learn from me and ultimately, in time, use my methods to select their own winners. I’d be open to this sort of thing if there was a demand for it.

I’m also thinking a private chat room for subscribers would go down a treat. Obviously, I’d be able to use the room to share opinions and views on other races as well as the ones I tip and this could also be used as a learning tool to aid the development of potential form readers who want to learn.

As you can see, the possibilities are endless……..

At the moment, I’m thinking about the following types of service:

Backing Services

- All selections by email or text or both (no analysis)
- 3* selections by email or text or both (no analysis)
- All selections by email with analysis
- 3* selections by email with analysis
- All selections by email with analysis and access to private chat room
- All selections by email with analysis and access to private chat room with frequent interactive group tutoring etc.

Laying Services

- Multiple selections to lay in races (no analysis)
- Single selections to lay in races (no analysis)
- Multiple selections to lay in races (with analysis)
- Single selections to lay in races (with analysis)

Packaged Service

- All selections by email with analysis and access to private chat room with tutoring and all laying services with analysis.

Obviously, I’m not going to offer all of the above services but it will be driven by what people want. I’d only offer 2 or 3 services at the beginning but I could expand this in the future if there is demand.

I know the gamblers are only interested in tips and therefore, they don’t want the analysis. People who make their own books on Betfair and back or lay multiple horses would be more interested in the analysis or the laying services etc.

The above list is not an exhaustive list of options and I’m really looking for some help from potential subscribers about what they want from a tipping service. Lots of my readers use tipping services which are currently out there and therefore, I want them to see me as a blank piece of paper. If you had to build a tipping service from scratch, what would you want from it?

Traders, I’ve been really keen on telling people to back my horses and lay IR at half the price to get an Evs winner. Is there a demand for this service?

One thing I’m very keen on doing is providing a free month of selections when the subscribers don’t make a profit in the previous month. For example, if Betfair traders wanted to back and lay at half the price, if I don’t get more than 50% of winners by this method, they would get the next month free. They may lose money from my selections if I ever do very badly but they will make it back in the future months no problem.

I’d be really keen on getting people’s opinions on the options above and the post in general. As you can gather, I want to offer a tipping service that has very little risk attached to the subscribers. I want to carry as much of the risk as possible.

If I win 100 points in a month and then have a losing month where I lose 5 points, the subscriber would be 95 points up and yet, they would still qualify for the next month free.

Some people will be reading this and thinking I’ve lost the plot but as I keep saying on here, my edge is so large, I really don’t think I’ll have many losing months!!!

Comments please……..

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Graeme mate you have a good understanding of horse racing and picking winners and its great you are going to give out a full months of tips for free,but if you start charging for various services you going to offer i will have to decline.Its just a matter of priciple mate i said along time ago i would never pay for tips again.What ever you decide to do i wish you the best of luck.
Cheers Terry

GeorgeH said...

I know very little about Betfair and even less about "trading" on that site. I only bet in small sums, normally with Willie Hill online as I think that's the easiest and best site all-round for horseracing. I am only interested in horseracing as I used to work in the bookie business as a settler/manager in Coral's and other firms from 1960s onwards. Prior to that I worked in a credit office in Sydenham from 1956 after leaving the RAF. That is how I earned a regular income from racing!!! That is why I only punt in small amounts, mainly for fun. It follows that I, like many others, are only interested in info about a possible winner. The analysis is interesting and if you are keen on "trading" and "laying" then the analysis is valuable. In the end it depends on how much such info would cost. Sorry if I have waffled on without giving you a firm reply so I'll condense it as:- Just the tip would do for me, if the cost was within my means. The analysis would be a bonus, if it came free with the tip.
Cheers, George H.

markomar said...

Well, your initial plan seemed fine to me, so sticking to it should be just fine I think.

I like the current tips format very much, though if it were to turn out that I can not afford the subscription (I have a very modest betting bank really) I would welcome a cheaper alternative of some sort.

Perhaps a subscription package that would get you just the very best tips (2-3 a week?) without the analysis?

Graeme Dand said...

Guys,

Thanks for the early comments.

A quick point though. The reason for the post was to get feedback and advice about what people want from an ‘ideal’ tipping service. I’m not saying I’ll do everything or even half the things I mention in the post but I just want some feedback from people about what is currently out there and how I can better it.

This is not meant to be a straw poll about who is willing to pay for selections. Just because you have no intention of paying for tips doesn’t mean you can’t help me out with some ideas and advice especially if you have lost on tipsters in the past.

Also, I haven’t even thought about subscription fees or how I will make this work financially. All I want to do is the cover the cost of any admin and my own time. I’m not going to be packing in my career to start a tipping service!

Quick reply to the comments….

Terry, I’m not wanting to know if you would pay for tips mate. I know you wouldn’t. Sounds to me like you’d want a money back guarantee if I lost! Fine, I’ll take that on board.

George, like most gamblers I assume, you just want the winners. I can see the analysis adds to it for you though, so something for me to consider.

Marko, a package with only a few tips a week seems interesting. Not really suited to my style I’ll admit as I do pick a helluva lost of losers to be trying to single out the best bets to bet on. Another thing to consider though.

I’ve had one email back also and I’d like to say a massive thanks mate. That’s exactly what I was looking for as I didn’t even know the prices of other services or what they offer to be honest. That will save me a bit of homework!

You also raise a great point about why should I offer guarantees that other more renowned services don’t…..I suppose the advantage they have is exposure to a much larger audience than I have and therefore, they don’t need a very high take-up rate on their site to make it worthwhile.

Great email though and if anyone else out there uses tipsters, let me know about the service you currently get and things you’d like to change or keep etc. That’s what I ideally want.

So far, it looks like this may never get off the ground due to lack of interest but I always knew it would be difficult as I don’t have enough exposure to my blog at the moment. Maybe I’m trying to do the impossible but time will tell….

Graeme

markomar said...

An ideal tipping service? Well, if you were looking to improve it further I suppose it wouldn`t go amiss to include more suggestions on what to bet on.

You say there is many ways to skin a cat. So why not include more of the cat pelts?

Say in addition to the one backing tip a race you do now, you could also tip a few horses to dutch and tip some horses to lay. Since the massive analysis for the race is already done why not milk it for everything it has got?

With analysis already done it shouldn`t take much of an additional effort while it should increase everyone`s profits.

Maybe it wouldn`t look as "proffesional", but bettors don`t care about appearance, they care about their bank balance. And the more bets they have per day the faster their bank grows and then theres compounded growth and all...


Or at the very least when you "dismiss" a horse try to make it clear are you dismissing it because there can`t be value in backing it, or because you think it hasn`t got a chance in hell of winning.

If there is no value in backing, there is not neccesarily value in laying either, but at a reasonable price we`ll lay horses that can`t win all day long. :)

Just my two cents...

Graeme Dand said...

Marko,

Much more like it mate...

I'll take the comments on board.

Small issue would be that I do the analysis already and I try to show you how to use it. Other readers are making money from it fairly easy enough by laying the ones I say can't win.

All I can do is spell it out a bit clearer I suppose....

Nice comment though.

Graeme

Betting Diary said...

Hi Graeme

I agree with the comments made by markomar. Personally, I feel a service in which you provide both backs and lays would be valuable. For example, if you have analyse the 3.00 Ayr race, and you pick out your strong bets, then I would be willing to back them to advised prices. In the same race, if you highlight horses which have little or no chance of winning them you can lay them too. This i feel would provide your members with a value service in which you get two 'bits' for the price of one. I hope the above sort of makes sense. In terms of how to set it out on an email im not too sure, maybe something similar to what you are doing now or an example email would be something that mathematican tipping service offers. They now have a betting blog with example emails they send out and maybe you should have a read for ideas etc. The address is: http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/

Anonymous said...

I came across this site via a mention on http://spenner68.blogspot.com/ and have been following your posts for a few days now with interest (btw, how do I sign up for email updates to get a feel for your current analysis?) . I must say that your blog posts make for fascinating reading (especially the 26th aug value betting one) and it's good to see that you're taking input on board.

I feel that in offering a service, it's good to think it through fully because once it's in the wild there isn't much scope for change.

My suggestion is for a:

1) Backers service

2) Layers service

3) Combined service

I would supply reasoning/analysis with all services and not class it as an added extra. The main reason for this is that it will help your subscribers to feel part of the service even if they do not fully understand or appreciate your analysis. It will also likely keep people on board though any bad periods, as when there is not analysis and logic supplied people fill in the gaps with their own negative thoughts.

If you launch too many services you may find yourself spending as much time on the admin side of things as race analysis. Certainly anything above three would,I believe, be promlematic. There is even a case for saying that you should have one service (backing and laying combined) as it would be, to my knowledge, fairly unique and that factor should not be underestimated.

Gareth C garethcoote at gmail d-o-t com

Graeme Dand said...

Betting Diary, cheers for the link. I'll take a look later.

Gareth, just saw your comment. I'll add you tomorrow to the distribution list mate.

G