Thursday, 11 September 2008

A bit of a wry smile.....

Daily Profit £58.00

I’m writing this post at 8pm tonight and after seeing the result of the 6.50 race tonight, I have a bit of wry smile.

Right, this could get a little confusing, but I’ll try to explain. My expertise is analysing races and selecting horses who are out of form but who I feel will be coming back to form soon. These are always the horses I look for and I’ve said that many times on here and anyone who has been following my analysis can probably see what I do.

Lately, I’ve been apparently reading lots of horses wrong and it’s been a little confusing and disheartening for me if I’m honest. I’m not a very confident person and it doesn’t take much for me to start to doubt myself and what I know. I’ve been scratching my head a fair amount over the past month as I appear to have been reading some horses badly wrong.

After seeing the 6.50 result, and the fact that Piccolo Diamante won at 16/1, I really don’t know why I ever listen to any of the doubters (including me!). If you look back at the 17th of August, you’ll see I put this up as a potential dark horse and annoyingly, it finished tailed off (not the first time I’ve selected a tailed off horse lately!). Next run, it pops up at 16/1.

This afternoon, I saw that Gift Horse was 2nd at 12/1. Look at the 22nd of August post when it ran poorly.

I’ve had Wadnagin last night, Franksalot and a few others recently who have been well below par when I selected it and then next run, shock horror, it pops up a massive price and shows its true form.

I’ve taken lots of unfair and unnecessary stick on this blog for picking horses like this recently and when I saw that horse won tonight, it made me smile…..

In case you’re wondering, I did notice Piccolo and Gift Horse last night but when you are on a losing run of 9, picking two horses that you selected last time and both running poorly and letting you down, doesn’t really appeal to me as a possible selection. If I had been doing well this month, I would have probably gone for both of these and taken a chance but now is the time for solid selections to get me back on track. We can save these 16/1 winners for next month!

OK, I selected two horses today. Before I mention the first one, I talked about a great form line between this horse and Space Pirate which ran in the earlier race. I was shocked to see Space Pirate not finish in the first 3 home but I was actually very pleased when I saw that it finished tailed off stone last! Clearly, something was amiss today with it, so the form line became meaningless.

In the 5.00, my selection was Croeso Crusan. It was 13/2 this morning and it opened 6/1 on course but was backed down to 4/1 favourite (very short IMO). However, as I suggested this morning, this horse is improving fast and it absolutely hosed up I believe. The SP isn’t great and I’m unlikely to ever tip many 4/1 winners but when you need a winner, they are all welcome.

As a quick aside, a few people have been trying their hand at analysing races using my sort of systematic approach. Today, 3 people sent me an analysis for this race and they all selected the same horse at odds of 10/1. Last night, I narrowed the race down to 2 runners as I told them all and they had all selected my other horse.

It gave me great satisfaction that the horse finished second and as I said to one, I actually backed both today due to the fact that 3 people independently backed up my view that it was a good bet. One of the three was actually showing off and selected the first 3 home today! I think he backed them all to win and place, so he would have had a great return on the race. Well done mate.

Without trying to plug next month too much, one thing I’m really keen on is sharing views with people and subscribers sharing views with each other. I’m making sure that a chat room will be on my website and I think it could prove to be a great tool for everyone next month. Sorry, no more plugs I promise!

My second selection was in the 5.30 and I plumped for Caustic Wit. I read the race not too badly I believe as I narrowed it down to the two Malcolm Saunders’ horses. The other one won at 11/4 which is a shame but mines ran a poor race to be honest.

My rationale for selecting it was based on the fact it was well handicapped, ran an OK race last time when badly drawn, last time was its first run for 2 months and it should have improved from it and lastly but most importantly, it was Mickey Fenton’s only ride today.

I don’t want to talk about the jockey thing too much as some people can place too much emphasis on this sort of thing but I strongly believe that a jockey is not going to ride in the last race at a track for his only ride of the day unless he has been told it has a chance. Clearly, whoever told him that was talking nonsense (lol) but I don’t regret the decision to back it. I regret not backing the other one as well to be honest but I’m not perfect!

After the trials and tribulations of this month, I’m actually in 2 points profit again. I know not everyone will be appreciating the fact that my selections that have run poor have subsequently run well next time but it’s this sort of thing that gives me great confidence if I’m honest. Despite having had a nightmare month and very little going right for me, I’m in profit for the time being at least.

Away to look at tomorrow’s race cards now, so hoping to find us a selection or two!


Anonymous said...

Congrats on the win today. It's good to see some of your confience returning, and also pleasing that a few of your previous picks went on to perform well.


Graeme Dand said...

Cheers mate.

I know it's no consolation to anyone (including me!) that they run shit when I select them and then bounce back to form next time, but it shows that whatever I saw in them to back them was correct. I just got the timing wrong!


Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be too worried about getting Gift Horse wrong the owner can't even get it right. He is the self proclaimed best tipster in the world. He's actually shite but that's another story.

Graeme Dand said...


Who owns the horse? I saw they entered it in a claimer last time (which shocked me) and they had a punt on it but it got beat!

Clearly, they should have asked me to analyse the race as a 4 horse race was never going to suit this horse. Yesterday's race was a million times more difficult and it ran a great race.

Agree that he must be a shit tipster then! lol


Anonymous said...

Alfie & partners a.k.a Henry Rix own Gift Horse.

Anonymous said...

yes but he didn't tip it the other day! yeasterday he had 1pt ew at 20/1, so slightly unfair if you look at his record over the last month!!

Anonymous said...

Try doing Henry for a year then you'll understand what shite is