Monday, 1 September 2008

Poor Start

Daily Loss £40.00

Not going to dwell every night on how my selections run as the time is better spent on the form for the next day but I’ll try to provide some commentary each night for readers of the blog.

Today, I put up 2 horses for 1 point win at prices of 14/1 and 16/1. I did receive a few emails back saying that 16/1 and 20/1 were available in places but since I don’t have access to oddschecker at work, I need to rely on Andrew and when he’s out the house, I need to use Irish Racing.com which only shows 6 bookmakers!

I placed my bets on Betfair at lunchtime on BF Mobile and after rule 4 deductions, I had £20 win on Franksalot (2.10) at 16 and £20 on Ray of Joy (5.10) at 16.8 on average.

Franksalot started at 14/1 and was fairly weak pre-race, so it would have been much bigger on Betfair. It traded about 6 IR I believe.

Ray of Joy opened on course at 14/1 and was backed down to 8/1 before starting at 17/2. Clearly, some people spotted this one along with me…..

I’ve no idea what price Ray of Joy traded at IR but it would have been fairly short going by the commentary as it appeared to have a great chance 1f out, so I’m guessing it maybe got low IR.

In summary, if I can continue backing these horses at the prices I backed at, I don’t see any problem with making a profit in the long-run at this game. Same comment applies to everyone who backed these horses today.

Franksalot appeared to travel well through the race but was set alight by the blinkers and probably by the fact it hadn’t run for two months and was too fresh. It had no chance of staying the 1m trip as it needs to be held off the pace at this trip and come late and therefore, due to it being too keen, he ruined his chances. No real complaints.

I did narrow the race down to 4 and this morning, I thought the odds were nearly perfect on the other three runners. Two of them finished first and second, so I didn't read the race bad. I just thought Frank was the value call today.

Ray of Joy’s race is easily the most interesting race of the day for me. A few points. I priced the race up last night and when I checked the prices today, it looked like a different race to the one I analysed!

I was against the favourite in a major way in this race as none of its runs had worked out well and in my eyes, it had very little chance today. I had it as 6/1+ in my tissue. It was 5/2 this morning and you can see why I struggled to understand the prices!

I said in my email today that I would lay the horse all day and I take a little bit of pleasure from seeing the horse finished tailed off last beaten 16 lengths at 11/4 fav. Obviously, it has run too bad to be true but I really don’t understand why it was 11/4.

Can anyone explain that to me?

I had Ray of Joy in at 9/1 in my tissue and when I saw it at 16/1 this morning (20/1 in a place!), it became an obvious bet for me. At 9/1 it had a fair chance in my book, at 16/1 it was a good bet.

My only decision regarding the horse was whether I back win or each-way. With hindsight, it finished 5 lengths clear of the 4th and was an each-way steal. However, I still feel I made the right decision to put it up as a win bet as I had to speculate slightly with regards to the form. It wasn’t a rock solid bet, so I didn’t want to risk any more than a 1 point bet.

The most pleasing thing about today is that readers would have been able to get decent prices very easily as I managed it, so that’s a positive to take from today. If we can continue to get 16/1 on horses that start at half the price and run well, we’ll do fine in the long run.

I’ve already found 2 possibles for tomorrow but like every possible tip I give out now, it will depend on what price they are tomorrow morning. Here’s hoping they are 16/1 shots…..

6 comments:

Steve said...

Graeme,

I read your comment to Nick on an earlier post regarding the fav in the second race (as well as your email today) and I laid it for a decent sum to trade IR. It was the first horse beaten and was beaten 3f out, so I didn't have to hedge the bet IR.

Ever thought of just laying false favourites every day? Maybe that can be the experiment for next month.

Looking forward to tomorrow's email. Already trying to second guess the races you will look at.

Steve

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

Cheers for the comment. Only thing I’d say is that I’m not a fan of laying horses as I’ve said many times on here before but I do understand why others do it.

That race yesterday was just very strange from the point of view that I really couldn’t give the favourite a chance and it was only maybe 5th or 6th best IMO.

Shame I couldn’t find the horse to win the race but mines ran OK, so not too worried. As I keep saying on here, as long as I keep reading races correctly, it will all fall into place in the long-run hopefully!

G

Dave said...

Graeme,

I backed that at 16 on Betfair.....

Well done son. You know what you're doing alright.

Dave

Steve said...

Saw the result of the first race.

How the hell you could put up that horse as a selection is way beyond me and I’m guessing, will be beyond most of the readers.

I’ve read your email twice after the race and it still doesn’t tell me why to back it. Tells me 3 reasons not to back it though.

Lucky for me, I went with the tip but even so, I still don’t get why you’d back something that’s been beaten miles and miles every start this season.

Look forward to your post-race analysis tonight Graeme.

Steve

Anonymous said...

Cracking start to the day mate with form figures of 000005 how the hell u pick that 1,who cares you know what your doing so ill just say well done and thanks for the beer money tonight.
Cheers
Terry.

Graeme Dand said...

Well done Dave.

Steve, Terry, I've tried to give my rationale for backing the horse in tonight's post.

Cheers,

Graeme