Daily Loss £46.25
When I logged off MSN tonight at 5.50pm, Andrew said to me “whatever you do, don’t give yourself too hard a time on the blog. People will understand and anyone could have made these errors. At least you got yourself in that position. Remember next month as people are starting to get pissed off with your drive and determination to succeed and they aren’t even paying for the tips yet.”
Well, I’m going to go against Andrew’s advice and write about the way I’m feeling. I’ve always been honest on here and it’s partly why I keep the blog.
So, cover your ears now….
I’m a fuc*ing muppet. I really am. An absolute fuc*ing idiot. I made some absolutely massive errors today and I felt physically sick after a couple of races today, so I’m not too happy tonight. I deliberately didn’t write this post earlier tonight as I was in danger of going over the top!
Below is the email I wrote to Andrew last night at 11.37pm:
Analysis will be done tomorrow morning once I see the odds of these but at the moment....
2.20 Good - Salient (backed it last time to make all but faded tamely as couldn't get easy lead, may get easy lead tomorrow), Eisteddfod (first time it has had optimal conditions all season and easiest race for a good few years) Swaying towards Eisteddfod but if Salient is 20/1+, I'd go for that tbh.
3.55 Good - I know you'll fancy this one too but William's Way is obvious. I'd have this as 10/1 and it should be 16/1+ tomorrow, so easy each-way bet. Will come late as it will sit in last place I guess and needs luck but it should run well.
5.05 Good - Our Piccadilly is head and shoulders above this lot and will win if it repeats last run. Worried about price though and I'll probably pass if it's priced up as favourite.
5.40 Good - Kinsya (probably my best bet - I can't see anything else that goes on the ground and is as well handicapped and I'll back each-way - 1 danger would be fav but I'd lay this as won't like ground)
4.40 Chester - I really fancy Green Park here but it's drawn in 9 which will stop it I guess. It's the best horse though but not always the case the best wins at Chester. Thunder Bay (well handicpped and not had best of luck last twice), would maybe be the call with issues with lots in here IMO and none look solid due to trip/ground/draw apart from this one. Draw fucked it for Green Park which is really annoying.
5.15 C - Oakfranca seems to be improving and should win but price worries me. Wouldn't back it if its too short.
2.05 Donc - River Falcon (been waiting for weeks to back this now and missed a good few meetings abandoned. Last twice, caught my eye and a pretty fresh horse now. 7th last year and a good bit lower now. We all know the way it runs but if it gets breaks and they come back to him, can win today) Will finish late and nail them on the line. :)
3.45 - I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob's Surprise. I'll probably plump for Bob's as it should be a good price and on a form line, holds other one. Arabian won it last year and should show it's best form this season but could be too short I guess.
4.15 - Not got a clue here mate and I'll pass. Looks tricky and too many improvers IMO.
5.25- Must be getting tired as I couldn't find anything here. The Snatcher stood out but too far out the handicap, so I can't back it.
I'll be up early and I'll do analysis for each one. Fancy River Falcon for 1 point each-way and maybe Kinsya for 1 point each-way but apart from that, all have to be 1 point bets I guess. Bit of a bumper day if I get the prices I want but similar to most services on a Saturday, so not too worried.
After seeing the prices this morning, I decided on 6 bets and gambled 8 points in total.
Here’s my view on each one (with a look back at my email last night to A):
2.20 Good – I plumped for Eisteddfod here as I thought it may return to form. I had 1 point win and to be honest, it ran poorly. It travelled OK but later events showed that it had no chance on the ground where it races as they started coming across to the other rail after this race. I wouldn’t discount this from running better but it disappointed me.
The reason I didn’t select Salient today was that I thought that 14/1 wasn’t great when I looked this morning and my other one was a more solid bet. Salient went off at 20/1 and traded 1.4 IR before just getting caught on the line. I was so relieved it lost to be honest but things get worse later…..
3.55 Good – Williams Way was held up in stone last and being honest, it never had a chance. I backed at 75 after 4f and it was a hopeless task. It finished a never nearer 8th and isn’t one to write off but they have to give it a chance. I joked last night they’d hold it up last and I was right! No complains here and another 1 point lost.
5.05 Good – My first big error (but about my 5th on the day as it happened). I had selected Our Picadilly here and being honest, it was so obvious for my method, it was embarrassing. However, in my wisdom this morning, I thought 7/2 was too short and I’d pass on the one. Absolutely pisses up on the bridle at 3/1. Great Graeme! No points lost though….
5.40 Good – Probably my best bet of the day. My decision this morning was how to stake this. I went for 2 points win and that really was the final straw for the day. Finished 3rd at 8/1 and was given an absolutely shocking ride IMO. It was always travelling as well as the winner but on the outside, the jockey managed to find a bit of trouble which gave the winner first run. Kinsya was full of running at the end and would have been second in another 100 yards.
As usual, another horse returns to form when I select it but 2 points lost. I’m really annoyed I didn’t say each-way as I said each-way last night. Great Graeme. 2 points lost.
4.40 Chester – The race where I felt really sick. Green Park was such an obvious horse here as it returned to form last time and was nailed on to run well. I had a huge issue with the draw and this morning, Andrew said I shouldn’t be afraid of the draw as it finishes late and may get up in time. I should have listened but no, I go for 1 point on Thunder Bay which ran a crappy race as it had the rail the whole way but wasn’t good enough.
Missing a 9/1 winner when I really fancy a horse hurts to be honest and I still can’t believe I didn’t back it. 1 point loss. Great Graeme.
5.15 Chester – I felt sick after this race but by this time, I knew it was going to win before the race and I backed it. I discounted Oakfranca this morning as it looked too short IMO and I was banging my desk when it hosed up by 8 lengths. What a fuc*ing numpty I am. Seriously. A 4/1 winner passes me by again due to the fact I won’t back short priced horses. It’s becoming a bit of a joke to be honest. Great Graeme.
2.05 Doncaster – The only race that pleased me today and I managed to win a few quid on River Falcon here as I laid off in the photo. I only kept £50 profit on the field and the rest on this as I thought it had won tbh but I even got that wrong. I backed it at 20 on Betfair and it traded at 1.6 or so, so traders would have been happy. Great Graeme.
I had 1 point each-way on it, so it’s a profit of 2.5 points.
3.45 Doncaster – Another cock-up here as I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob’s Surprise. I plumped for Bob’s Surprise as it was too high a price and I stand by this decision. I’d take that every time at the odds. As it turned out, it was the first horse beat and it ran a stinker (not for the first time I’ve selected one of these recently!)
Obviously, it didn’t make me feel any better that Arabian Gleam won. I remember thing at that point in the day it could be a bad day today. Subsequent events showed that’s the biggest understatement on this whole blog! Great Graeme.
4.15 and 5.25 races I had no idea and don’t even care about the results at the moment.
By my reckoning, that’s a loss of 3.5 points on the day and this is getting ridiculous now. I know I can’t always get these decisions right about which horse to back but today was an embarrassment for me to be honest and Andrew could only laugh as the day went on. I still haven’t laughed yet to be honest and I’m fuming at myself.
Selecting the wrong horse in a race will always happen to me from time to time and I’ve proved that a lot on here recently. Not selecting two horses that piss up at 3/1 and 4/1 because they are too short is like a kick in the stomach to be honest and I’m so annoyed with myself. Really annoyed………..
I spent time working on my website design today between races but if I have any more days like today, I doubt I can even go ahead with next month. I need to get my finger out and start selecting the right horse to tip and stop missing out on winners as it’s really getting to me.
I know this is maybe dreaming slightly but given that email last night, I could have had winners at 3/1,4/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 2nds at 14/1 and 20/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 from 8 selections.
Instead I ended up with a 2nd at 14/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 and 4 losers who ran shit. Great Graeme!
I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s races and I don’t think I see any selections, so we’ll pass I think. I’ll issue the note tomorrow morning in case I dream up a selection.