Saturday, 13 September 2008

Great Graeme....

Daily Loss £46.25

When I logged off MSN tonight at 5.50pm, Andrew said to me “whatever you do, don’t give yourself too hard a time on the blog. People will understand and anyone could have made these errors. At least you got yourself in that position. Remember next month as people are starting to get pissed off with your drive and determination to succeed and they aren’t even paying for the tips yet.”

Well, I’m going to go against Andrew’s advice and write about the way I’m feeling. I’ve always been honest on here and it’s partly why I keep the blog.
So, cover your ears now….

I’m a fuc*ing muppet. I really am. An absolute fuc*ing idiot. I made some absolutely massive errors today and I felt physically sick after a couple of races today, so I’m not too happy tonight. I deliberately didn’t write this post earlier tonight as I was in danger of going over the top!

Below is the email I wrote to Andrew last night at 11.37pm:

Right mate,

Analysis will be done tomorrow morning once I see the odds of these but at the moment....

2.20 Good - Salient (backed it last time to make all but faded tamely as couldn't get easy lead, may get easy lead tomorrow), Eisteddfod (first time it has had optimal conditions all season and easiest race for a good few years) Swaying towards Eisteddfod but if Salient is 20/1+, I'd go for that tbh.
3.55 Good - I know you'll fancy this one too but William's Way is obvious. I'd have this as 10/1 and it should be 16/1+ tomorrow, so easy each-way bet. Will come late as it will sit in last place I guess and needs luck but it should run well.
5.05 Good - Our Piccadilly is head and shoulders above this lot and will win if it repeats last run. Worried about price though and I'll probably pass if it's priced up as favourite.
5.40 Good - Kinsya (probably my best bet - I can't see anything else that goes on the ground and is as well handicapped and I'll back each-way - 1 danger would be fav but I'd lay this as won't like ground)
4.40 Chester - I really fancy Green Park here but it's drawn in 9 which will stop it I guess. It's the best horse though but not always the case the best wins at Chester. Thunder Bay (well handicpped and not had best of luck last twice), would maybe be the call with issues with lots in here IMO and none look solid due to trip/ground/draw apart from this one. Draw fucked it for Green Park which is really annoying.
5.15 C - Oakfranca seems to be improving and should win but price worries me. Wouldn't back it if its too short.
2.05 Donc - River Falcon (been waiting for weeks to back this now and missed a good few meetings abandoned. Last twice, caught my eye and a pretty fresh horse now. 7th last year and a good bit lower now. We all know the way it runs but if it gets breaks and they come back to him, can win today) Will finish late and nail them on the line. :)
3.45 - I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob's Surprise. I'll probably plump for Bob's as it should be a good price and on a form line, holds other one. Arabian won it last year and should show it's best form this season but could be too short I guess.
4.15 - Not got a clue here mate and I'll pass. Looks tricky and too many improvers IMO.
5.25- Must be getting tired as I couldn't find anything here. The Snatcher stood out but too far out the handicap, so I can't back it.
I'll be up early and I'll do analysis for each one. Fancy River Falcon for 1 point each-way and maybe Kinsya for 1 point each-way but apart from that, all have to be 1 point bets I guess. Bit of a bumper day if I get the prices I want but similar to most services on a Saturday, so not too worried.

Tomorrow....

G

After seeing the prices this morning, I decided on 6 bets and gambled 8 points in total.

Here’s my view on each one (with a look back at my email last night to A):

2.20 Good – I plumped for Eisteddfod here as I thought it may return to form. I had 1 point win and to be honest, it ran poorly. It travelled OK but later events showed that it had no chance on the ground where it races as they started coming across to the other rail after this race. I wouldn’t discount this from running better but it disappointed me.

The reason I didn’t select Salient today was that I thought that 14/1 wasn’t great when I looked this morning and my other one was a more solid bet. Salient went off at 20/1 and traded 1.4 IR before just getting caught on the line. I was so relieved it lost to be honest but things get worse later…..

3.55 Good – Williams Way was held up in stone last and being honest, it never had a chance. I backed at 75 after 4f and it was a hopeless task. It finished a never nearer 8th and isn’t one to write off but they have to give it a chance. I joked last night they’d hold it up last and I was right! No complains here and another 1 point lost.

5.05 Good – My first big error (but about my 5th on the day as it happened). I had selected Our Picadilly here and being honest, it was so obvious for my method, it was embarrassing. However, in my wisdom this morning, I thought 7/2 was too short and I’d pass on the one. Absolutely pisses up on the bridle at 3/1. Great Graeme! No points lost though….

5.40 Good – Probably my best bet of the day. My decision this morning was how to stake this. I went for 2 points win and that really was the final straw for the day. Finished 3rd at 8/1 and was given an absolutely shocking ride IMO. It was always travelling as well as the winner but on the outside, the jockey managed to find a bit of trouble which gave the winner first run. Kinsya was full of running at the end and would have been second in another 100 yards.

As usual, another horse returns to form when I select it but 2 points lost. I’m really annoyed I didn’t say each-way as I said each-way last night. Great Graeme. 2 points lost.

4.40 Chester – The race where I felt really sick. Green Park was such an obvious horse here as it returned to form last time and was nailed on to run well. I had a huge issue with the draw and this morning, Andrew said I shouldn’t be afraid of the draw as it finishes late and may get up in time. I should have listened but no, I go for 1 point on Thunder Bay which ran a crappy race as it had the rail the whole way but wasn’t good enough.

Missing a 9/1 winner when I really fancy a horse hurts to be honest and I still can’t believe I didn’t back it. 1 point loss. Great Graeme.

5.15 Chester – I felt sick after this race but by this time, I knew it was going to win before the race and I backed it. I discounted Oakfranca this morning as it looked too short IMO and I was banging my desk when it hosed up by 8 lengths. What a fuc*ing numpty I am. Seriously. A 4/1 winner passes me by again due to the fact I won’t back short priced horses. It’s becoming a bit of a joke to be honest. Great Graeme.

2.05 Doncaster – The only race that pleased me today and I managed to win a few quid on River Falcon here as I laid off in the photo. I only kept £50 profit on the field and the rest on this as I thought it had won tbh but I even got that wrong. I backed it at 20 on Betfair and it traded at 1.6 or so, so traders would have been happy. Great Graeme.

I had 1 point each-way on it, so it’s a profit of 2.5 points.

3.45 Doncaster – Another cock-up here as I narrowed it down to Arabian Gleam and Bob’s Surprise. I plumped for Bob’s Surprise as it was too high a price and I stand by this decision. I’d take that every time at the odds. As it turned out, it was the first horse beat and it ran a stinker (not for the first time I’ve selected one of these recently!)

Obviously, it didn’t make me feel any better that Arabian Gleam won. I remember thing at that point in the day it could be a bad day today. Subsequent events showed that’s the biggest understatement on this whole blog! Great Graeme.

4.15 and 5.25 races I had no idea and don’t even care about the results at the moment.

By my reckoning, that’s a loss of 3.5 points on the day and this is getting ridiculous now. I know I can’t always get these decisions right about which horse to back but today was an embarrassment for me to be honest and Andrew could only laugh as the day went on. I still haven’t laughed yet to be honest and I’m fuming at myself.

Selecting the wrong horse in a race will always happen to me from time to time and I’ve proved that a lot on here recently. Not selecting two horses that piss up at 3/1 and 4/1 because they are too short is like a kick in the stomach to be honest and I’m so annoyed with myself. Really annoyed………..

I spent time working on my website design today between races but if I have any more days like today, I doubt I can even go ahead with next month. I need to get my finger out and start selecting the right horse to tip and stop missing out on winners as it’s really getting to me.

I know this is maybe dreaming slightly but given that email last night, I could have had winners at 3/1,4/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 2nds at 14/1 and 20/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 from 8 selections.

Instead I ended up with a 2nd at 14/1 and a 3rd at 8/1 and 4 losers who ran shit. Great Graeme!

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s races and I don’t think I see any selections, so we’ll pass I think. I’ll issue the note tomorrow morning in case I dream up a selection.

10 comments:

Cassini said...

Graeme - there is nothing wrong with backing a horse at a short price, if that price is value. Evens or less can oftem be value - the important thing is price relative to probability. Would you back Heads in a coin toss at 5/4 or would you decline because it's too short? Good luck anyway - as you know, horses aren't my thing but I did make a few pence this week from your tips!

Anonymous said...

Chill mate FFS !!! These things happen !
The problem is that you’ve put yourself under huge pressure to perform this month (not out of character !), so when things go wrong, it gets to you big time.
I’m sure that all of your readers can see you’ve been a bit unlucky today – but it happens to us all – it’s the nature of the game. As I said when I was guest blogging, I went through such a period of bad luck a few years ago, I changed my method and started putting in low IR lays to even things out…
You mustn’t change what you are doing – you know your method is sound. Cassini is right about value – but horses don’t become value at 3 or 4-1 after the race, just because they won. They may well be value at that price before the race – but in these particular instances I guess you figured they weren’t…
On another day you would have made all the right calls and be proclaimed a genius – it’s a fine line…
Remember – it’s a marathon not a sprint !!
A.

steve said...

Just one of those days Graeme we all have them, you've got to stop piling pressure on yourself.

Remember there's nothing wrong with dutching a couple of runners if you fancy more than one in a race. Might be worth you keeping some record of your 'next best' horse in a race just to see the stats at the end of the month.

If we consider the prices on Betfair to be a 'true' reflection of a horses price then even guessing should return 95% after commission in the long run barring chasing /fiddling around with stakes etc it's obvious you have more than that 5% edge needed so it's only a matter of time before the results will turn your way.

Anonymous said...

How do you deal with the issue of whether a horse is trying or not - often makes a mockery of form. Good Luck

liam said...

Hi Graeme
You ARE BEING VERY HARD ON YOURSELF.yOU OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT TALENT IN RACE ANALYSIS AND AS SOMEONE ELSE COMMENTED THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH BACKING A SHORT PRICED SELECTION IF IT OFFERS VALUE OR ALTERNATIVELY DUTCHING A NUMBER OF SELECTIONS.WOULD IT BE POSSIBLE FOR ME TO RECEIVE YOUR SELECTIONS FROM NOW WITH A VIEW TO JOINING YOUR SERVICE WHEN IT COMES TO FRUITION
REGARDS
LIAM O CONNOR
(liamjeff@gmail.com)

Steve said...

Graeme,

I think you need to give people more credit for understanding what you do than you currently are.

I'm in the lucky position that I made a small profit yesterday due to laying off River Falcon in the photo at 5/4 having backed at 20 and I backed it to place.

Yesterday was your worst day so far but you are not having a bad month. The fact you are negative to SP is clearly not a true indicator of the month and people will realise this.

Keep pushing on with your plans for next month and I'm sure that you'll be surprised at the support you recieve.

Steve

Anonymous said...

You should listen the Steve's advice ,he seems to know what he's talking about and always manages to lay off at the lowest price any horse hits be it 4's or 1.2 etc :)

Graeme Dand said...

I'll reply to all comments quickly as I can do with looking at tomorrow's racing....

Cassini, I take on board your comments mate. I've only given out 2 horses at short price either on the blog or in an email and both won. I think my issue is that it's difficult to work out probabilities when I'm assessing a 3/1 chance in a 10 horse race. It doesn't sit easy with me and I struggle to back these types.

A, I'm starting to realise how fine the line is going to be. If I'd followed my instinct and backed Green Park and if River Falcon had got up, I'd be sitting with 20 points profit this month! I can help the pressure thing. If I didn't feel pressure, it wouldn't be normal!

Steve, I agree that in the long-run, I won't have an issue but tipsters are only as good as their last tip, theor last week or thier last month etc. I won't get many chances at this game IMO and therefore, I need to show what I can do in the short-term.

Anonymous, because I specialise in handicaps, I've got to assume that every horse is trying. If I didn't think horses were trying their best in these races, I'd probably pack the game in as I wouldn't have a chance....

Liam, I'll add you to dist list tomorrow mate.

Steve, you appear to have mastered the art mate of knowing when my horses will run well....you can maybe give me some tips in an email as you are reading these selections much better than me at the moment to be honest! Well done anyway and I too laid off in the photo although I didn't green up as I thought it had got up to win, so cost me a few quid...

Anonymous, see comment above! Maybe some people are luckier than us.....

Thanks for all the comments. Appreciated as always.

G

Steve said...

G,

My strategy is no big secret. On horses who you say will front run or travel well, I look for a return of just over Evs in running to double my stake.

On horses that you say will be held up and come late, I look for a return of 4/1 in running.

On horses like River Falcon where you said it would nail 21 horses on the line, it becomes a case of gambling and laying off at just over Evs. The horse didn't get below 5 until the last 10 yards, so anyone who laid off at 5+ were wasting their time IMO.

Steve

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

I wasn’t questioning your profits mate to be honest as I know how well you’re doing. I’ve said it a few times on here that traders have been doing much better than punters and Saturday was another great example. I made a little on the race but I thought that my horse had won tbh, so I didn’t green up fully which cost me another £150+.

I think it’s interesting that you are now employing different IR trading strategies depending on how my horse is ridden. I think this obviously makes a lot of sense but I haven’t thought about it too much before. On Saturday, it would have been pointless laying off Rever Falcon as it comes so late, it was never going to trade very low unless it got there (or nearly got there as it turned out).

I suppose the same was true of William’s Well as I backed that IR at 75 after a few furlongs as it was held up in last place and wouldn’t have traded low unless it got very near the front.

Something to bear in mind for everyone who is laying off IR I guess…..

G