Monday, 22 September 2008

Please, Please, Please wake me up!

Daily Loss £40.00

I feel like I’ve been in a nightmare for most of this month and I keep hoping I’ll wake up soon and see that I’ve picked a few more winners and made a few different decisions this month.

Well….guess what?

Look back to the 21st of August on here……(interesting...post)

Yip, Tony The Tap was one of my short-listed 4 today. Also, it doesn’t stop there. My first selection today which I was going to have 3 points win on was All In The Red in the seller which won at 5/4. Yip, another day, another fuck-up by me and if it wasn’t for the fact that I’m losing money and losing you guys money at the same time, I’d laugh about it.

As Andrew keeps telling me, anyone can make these mistakes and at least I’m doing it during a trial month but being honest, it is starting to get to me but I won’t let it. I feel like I owe you guys an explanation of why I didn’t select these today as it’s your money I’m wasting as well as mines.

I had a good bit of banter with Andrew concerning All In The Red. Basically, picking a 2/1 shot (it won at 5/4) in 16 runner seller appears to crazy but on my method, this horse was a near certainty today and all it had to do was run anywhere near the last run. It probably ran a little below this run but still won easy enough.

One thing I’m keen on doing next month if there is any demand for it is giving some help about how to unpick sellers and claimers. I find these races fairly easy to unpick but the horses are a low level and sometimes, I’m left scratching my head but if you have the time to analyse these races, it can be like taking candy off a baby.

I made a promise only last week that I wouldn’t select a short-price fav in a large field but that comment was really applied to handicaps. On my reading today, this horse was 5/4 in a 5 horse race and it was 10lbs clear of every horse in that hypothetical 5 horse race, so 5/4 was probably a steal. Hindsight is easy in this game but it was my view pre-race. Andrew talked me out of it and I know deep down he’s right (these horses are too inconsistent to take a short price about) but it still hurts after everything that’s happened this month.

Tony The Tap is more difficult to talk myself around and I feel like a fool. You have probably read my post-race review from the last run and thought, why the fuck didn’t he select that today?

Being honest, I decided that I’d only select two horses today maximum as I know people don’t want lots of selections and it doesn’t do my credibility much good to select 4 losers if that happened on a Monday of all days!

I had already decided that Digital was going to be a selection today and I also knew it was coming off the back of a very poor run. Therefore, I decided that I had to look for a more solid selection and I decided that at the available odds this morning (9/1), I’d pass on Tony The Tap.

Obviously, I regret the decision now but I’m not going to beat myself up too much. All it shows is that when I select a horse and it finishes last (applies to lots this month!), it’s usually because something was wrong with it and not because it was a bad selection!

My first ‘real’ selection today was Digital. As I made clear this morning, when it tried its best, it usually runs very well. I didn’t see the race but from the commentary, it was a never nearer 2nd at 14/1 after meeting trouble in running which doesn’t make me feel any better.

As everyone knows, I have had a shocking month this month and lots of mine have run nowhere near to form. However, off the top of my head and without checking my spreadsheet, I know I’ve had 3 seconds at 14/1 now and it just about sums up my month. Throw in another few placed horses I’ve had at big prices and for most tipsters, they’d be claiming a great month! lol

My other selection today was Star Strider and this was a well beaten 9th and clearly run nowhere near to form. Nothing new there this month but the horse has been placed 3 times off this mark in better races than this on the last 3 runs, so something was amiss today. Getting used to this now, so I won’t complain!

Overall though, another 2 point loss on the day. As you will have noticed, I’ve started to chill a bit and whatever will be will be. I can only do my best and whatever anyone thinks of me and this month, I’ve tried my best and can’t do much more…..

Away to spend time on the website now and get this up and running for later in the week for the grand opening!

5 comments:

GeorgeH said...

Hi Graeme,
Disappointing day, but you were right in your analysis of Digital! It was stone last for half the trip, according to the commentary I was listening to, but it was flying at the death and had to switch in the last furlong to get out of trouble. I'd say that was bad luck, but you certainly knew the way this nag would perform.

I have a "silly" system = a really daft system, where I have a bet on any horse which has a name with "Dancer" or "Dancing" in it - and you'd be surprised how often it comes up trumps! Like today: there was a race with Summer Dancer and Ghost Dancer, both in the same race. I was going to back Summer Dancer, but the Willie Hill commentator said he fancied Summer Dancer and it shortened in price a couple of points, so I backed Ghost Dancer ew - taking 16-1. It Won, at 20s. Hill's paid me out at the bigger price, which was nice.

You remember I backed ChaCha Cha in one of your races the other day? Well, that was just because the name was linked to dance! Yes, I know... stupid system but I get a kick out of when these odd-balls come in.

I am now going to sort out a bet on the winner of Strictly Come Dancing, (my must-see prog!) and I have put Austin Healey (what a name) as my possible nap of the series. I've won quite a bit on SCD punting in the past, ignoring the old adage about not backing any animal with only two legs!.

Anyway Graeme, keep pressing on. I think you will still come out in front this month!

GeorgeH

Anonymous said...

Thought I'd let your traders have the link to gruss's beta version of Betaq trader Graeme.

Usual stuff, only play with low staes til youre happy with the software as it's only a test version at the moment

https://www.gruss1-software.co.uk/BetdaqAssistant/main.swf

JP said...

Hi Graeme,

Back from my holiday now - had a great time and totally forgot about betting, still off it to be honest as you can read on my blog.

Have picked up your e-mails though and had a read through your blog. Looks like you've had an interesting month !!!

Great work mate, don't be so hard on yourelf. Your bloody good at this and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Stay positive, sort the staking out and it's all good !!


All the best
JP

Anonymous said...

Mate,
I still maintain that 5-4 for a horse in a 16 runner seller, is not likely to be a good bet… Horses run in sellers for good reasons – they will never be the most reliable of propositions.
Tony the Tap is a different matter… I think the problem you have is that you are juggling a lot of things and trying to fit the tipping in as best you can. It can’t be easy justifying the investment of extra time and effort when you are getting no reward. Hopefully, if the tipping takes off, you’ll feel more comfortable putting in the additional time from next month, meaning that horses like Tony are less likely to slip through the net…
A.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi George.

Nice to see you had a winner mate!

Hi JP. Nice to see you're back mate! Reading my emails must have been fun for you....sure you've read shorter novels in your time!

Cheers A. Agree that I was right to miss that horse but Tony should have been a bet. You win some and lose some mate....

G