Thursday, 18 September 2008

Priceless.....

Daily Loss £40.00

“Ancient Cross was well backed with the first-time blinkers on, but he was in trouble 2f out and is now fast running out of excuses.”

I’ve read some brilliant quotes in my time in horse-racing but the quote above really is priceless from the RP review. This was the horse that Andrew talked me out of today and if I was going to sum up this month, that quote does it all. lol

Today, I gave another 2 losing selections and I’m beginning to think a trained monkey could do better than me this month.

My first selection was Daring Dream and I’m not exactly sure what happened as the commentary I heard appeared to say it hit the front two furlongs out and then he didn’t mention it again! I then get in from work and see that it was well beaten by 16 lengths ffs, so either the commentator was winding me up or this horse has faded like it’s been shot in the final furlong.

Either way, it’s another well backed loser and other form students must be loving me this month. At the moment, most of mines are being backed (people clearly see the same as me!) but for some unknown reason, they are not seeing out their races. I have managed to get some really well backed and well handicapped horses beaten this month and this goes down as another one.

My other selection was Briannsta and it ran an OK race to be 3rd at 25/1. As luck would have it, I gave it out as a win bet as it was a bit speculative and it goes and gets placed. I could live with this if I was booting home 10/1 winners everyday but I couldn’t pick my nose at the moment, let alone pick a winner!

Here’s the quote from the Racing Post review for this one “Briannsta is extremely well handicapped on his form from a couple of seasons ago and this was a more promising effort. He could soon be of interest again.”

As I said this morning, the reason for backing it was because it was very well handicapped on what it did in 2006 after a mid season break. Unfortunately, as I keep on telling you, we only get one shot with these horses. It was 40/1 this morning in places and next time, assuming it ran in that race again, it would be 6/1. We won't be able to back it next time.

Overall, another disappointing day with a horse running well below form and another well handicapped horse getting beat. A 2 point loss to add to the monthly total and it’s beginning to look bleak!

After a fair bit of soul searching this week, I’ve decided I’m not going to let it worry me too much. I still believe that I’m not doing a lot wrong and I can’t believe the number I'm picking that are being backed heavily pre-race and not running to form.

Today, I was updating my spreadsheet with the results. Being honest, even I’m struggling to believe the results and I’ve picked the fuckers. The number that have run nowhere near to form is astounding and I can’t put my finger on why. I’ll keep plugging away though and I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before I hit some winners.

Thanks for all the recent comments. As I’ve said many times, it’s the comments that make this blog a good read and some of the recent comments have kept my confidence up.

I thought I’d mention the point that Knocker made. On The Handicap Forum in 2 weeks of proofing tips, I made just over 60 points profit. Obviously, I hit winners left, right and centre in that time and the analysis was first class also.

However, anyone who can make 60 points in 2 weeks can obviously lose a lot of points when the winners are not flying home and I’m finding that myself this month. One point I made earlier in the month is the fact that I’m only a few winners away from being a genius and 20 winners away from being useless.

At the moment, I’m obviously much nearer to being useless than a genius (lol) but all I need is a couple of winners. This will always be the case with me and maybe I should have made that clearer at the start of the month. I tried to give as much warnings as possible but maybe I should have spelt it out in large letters or something! It may have saved Mr anonymous a grand….

Away to look at tomorrow’s races now and I’m praying that I find a winner for us!

8 comments:

leonthefixer said...

Hi Mate - You have probably mentioned this already but out of interest as I can't remember reading it, do you feel you read the jumps racing as well as you do the flat (I mean long term not just this current spell, it is meant as a complement so don't take it as a dig at your current lack of winners). Or do you take the winter off. It is just hat I have not seen you mention any jumps racing in the blog entries I have read and obviously we are close to the end of the flat season bar the AW.

Fingers crossed you get a winner tomorrow.

Dan said...

mate,

something went wrong with your first horse in the final furlong. it traded less than 2 and was cantring but faded quickly and the jockey let it come home in its own time.

second one ran well and was another never nearer for you.

gl with the silver cup. looks impossible to solve

Dan

Anonymous said...

Hello again Graeme.

Hope you are fine.

I am sure you are wondering where I have been for the past two weeks or so and I better own up to you.

After winning £1,459 from the tricast/forecast bet on your selections on the 4th, I booked the wife and I a last minute deal for a 10 day break to Rhodes. We left on the Saturday and we returned early on Wednesday this week.

I feel a little frustrated as I didn’t have time to say bye and thank you before we left as I had issues with my ISP and we had a lot to organise in such a short space of time. I had great fun yesterday opening all your emails and then reading the blog post to check to see how they ran.

I cannot believe some of the comments on the blog and I’m very surprised at how much you have let these people grind you down. As a few people have said already, wait until next month and we’ll see where these detractors are then. Wish them good luck for when you aren’t there to help them.

I think we can see you haven’t had the greatest of months by your own very high standards but as you said in one of the notes if I remember correctly, you can find it difficult to spend time on races due to there being no incentive to do it as you are not getting paid. I’m sure you can’t wait until next month now and I’m looking forward to it as others are I’m sure.

The wife [Moira] wants me to thank you and I think all of Greece knows your name and about your blog now as we talked about you the whole week and how you are doing so well at horse-racing. We said you paid for our holiday and didn’t charge us a penny for the privilege.

I've tried an each-way double today. I’m not sure how many times you can select a 2,400-1 tricast in a year but whatever happens, you have paid for our holiday that we didn’t think we would manage this year. For that I will be eternally grateful.

Stan

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Leon.

Great question mate. As you know, I much prefer flat racing to NH racing but as I showed early on the blog, I know my way around that game also…..

Lucky for me though, the flat season continues on the AW throughout the winter with a meeting everyday and the races tend to be very low-grade handicaps for poor horses. Just my cup of tea really!

Another thing about the winter on the AW is that the track/ground variable is largely removed from the calculations and it makes the analysis a bit easier and finding winners a bit easier. I know lots of tipster services specialise on the AW and I’d be happy to take them on at their own game mate.

As I’ve said before on here , I much prefer the NH game to the flat game but I don’t like it so much as a betting proposition due to the extra variables involved.

lol @ take the winter off. I’m going to go to the bother of setting up a website mate for the month of October and then shut up shop until March!

I think the whole population has their fingers crossed I get out the current bad run. I remember going through lean spells a few times over the years but this one is very poor. Whatever happens, I can’t be accused of conning anyone about how good I may do in the future! Much the opposite, lots of people will think I’m useless and give up after this month I guess…lol

Good luck with the trading.

Graeme

Graeme Dand said...

Dan,

A few people have said to me that the horse travelled well and I think it traded at about 1.5 IR.

I must be the only person in the world who can get a horse to trade at 1.5 in an 8f flat race and then still manage to get it beaten by 16 lengths.

At least a few of the traders will be happy! Profits continue to flow for them.... lol

G

Graeme Dand said...

Stan,

I've has some nice comments on here but that made me feel a bit warm inside!

Being 100% honest, I thought you had lost it all by following me since then and weren't commenting.

I'm sure you'll see the funny side here (you haven't been backing the losers!) but since you called me a Tipping God that day and I used that comment as a title to a post, I've had 1 winner in 23 races.....

I've had some bad runs in my life but this is the worst for a while. I don't think God liked me using his name in that post, so I'm assuming he's not a punter!

I remember you asking for my address of where to send my share to. If it gets any worse, I may need my share to pay the bills. lol

I think it's great that you spent the money on a holiday. As you know, I spent most of my Betfair winnings from earlier this year on a holiday and it was nice knowing that others had paid for it.

I'm starting to think that you are maybe my lucky mascot and if I get a winner today, I will be blaming you mate as all I've picked are losers since you've been away!

I really appreciate your comment and it has made my weekend mate. To £10 stakes, you are 146 points up then which takes the pressure off me a bit with regards to making you a profit this month.

I just need to find a mountain of winners to bail everyone else out of the shit! lol

Cheers,

Graeme

Anonymous said...

Well done on Sphinx Graeme, I know it's little consolation to you managing to pick a shorty but it got me out of a hole today. Laid Dr Sharp on your assement it was 43 lengths off Sphinx and used the stake to back Sphinx. Didn't quite manage the 43 lengths but 6 was more than enough for me :)

Anonymous said...

Congrats on the win today Graeme :).

Gareth