Wednesday, 10 September 2008

Let's clear this up......

No selection today for me. I did quickly mention the 6.20 at Kempton this morning and the mystery horse was Wadnagin. It was 3rd at 6/1 having been backed from 10/1 on course and 12/1 this morning.

I spoke about the horse on the 17th of August on here and I thought it was a great bet to return to form then. It finished tailed off after being well backed and I was left scratching my head. 3 weeks later, it returns to form and it would have won tonight if it had a better draw than the car park draw! Sums up my month thus far….(glad it lost though since I didn’t select it!)

A quick point on the monthly P&L for the tips. I was looking through my results today and I see I had Fort Churchill in my spreadsheet at 10/1 and not 11/1, so I’ve done myself out of a point. So I’m now -1 on the month and not -2. Managed to make a point profit today without having a bet, so it’s cheered me up! (if anyone else is tracking the profit to SP, can they confirm I’m correct please).

OK, I was a bit down this morning when I wrote the email and I think I need to clear a few things up regarding trading v gambling. The anonymous knob who has been writing on the blog actually raised a good question in a comment on the last post - not you Anthony :) – so I’ll give an answer tonight as I promised.

He asked whether I’m running a tipping service or a trading service i.e. horses to back to lay. As I’ve made clear on here many times now, my forte is analysing form and reading races. That’s what I’m best at. No one has said I’m any good at tipping and even I can’t answer that. I have no historical records (apart from a 2 week spell on The Handicap Forum) and I really can’t say whether I’m going to be any good as a tipster.

However, what I can say is that I’ll work hard to analyse races and try to select the winner. This month, I’ve had 1 winner at 11/1 from 12 selections. I’m on a losing run of 9 at the moment but the average odds are 11/1 of these losers, so a run of 9 losers isn’t a disaster.

The only reason that the traders are doing very well this month is simply because my horses have been travelling well and running well. I’ve had a few horses run way below form but apart from these, most horses have run solid races and I’ve had a 2nd at 14/1, 3rd at 12/1 and 3rd at 15/2 and these all traded very low in running which helps the traders. I have even had a horse that was freely available at 65 on Betfair (33/1) that traded at 4 in running, so it’s easy to see why traders are doing well.

However, the main purpose of my service is going to be race analysis and giving out selections to win. I am not advocating that people trade my horses in running and therefore, I hope this clears things up a little.

In the long-run, once the winners start to flow, the traders will be limiting their profits greatly by trading IR and the gamblers should do much better and earn a much better return. When I select a 33/1 chance, it’s not because I thought it could run well and trade lower. I selected that horse as I thought it was maybe well handicapped and would run much better than the market thinks (I was right).

I’ve really struggled with the whole tipster thing this month as some of you know and people losing money on my selections doesn’t sit easy with me at all. A few of you have suggested that I’m maybe just too nice for this game and maybe you are right. However, I made it clear at the outset that this is a trial month and I didn’t make any promises about how good I would do, so I shouldn’t worry so much about how people are doing.

In the long-run, I still don’t have any doubt that I’ll make a decent return for people but it’s not my money I’m risking, so I will let other people decide if they want to take this risk……

I made the decision today that I’m going to go ahead with next month regardless of what happens this month. I had to make a decision and I couldn’t wait to see how much profit or loss I made this month before deciding to give professional tipping a try. Work has started on a website and I have a name for the site but I’ll keep it private at the moment until the website is developed.

Lastly, a few readers have sent me some examples of the analysis that other tipping services provide. My initial reaction was one of shock and I couldn’t believe that anyone would buy that rubbish. Obviously, analysis isn’t the thing that matters and it’s picking winners that matter. At the moment, these sites are probably better than me at that but in time, I’m sure I can match them or beat them. Once I do start picking winners and combining it with my analysis, maybe I can have the best tipping service out there in 12 months time……

Thanks for the continued support and I hope I can repay the faith that so many of you are showing in me at the moment. I’ll be trying my best whatever happens!

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

'Anonymous Knob' - that's an unfortunate surname...
No wonder he just posts an Anonymous ;)
A.

steve said...

You've got to stop being so hard on yourself and be more realistic Graeme.

OK it's hardly the greatest start to your career as a tipster but 1pt down at SP is hardly the end of the world. Betfair SP was 16 so most were probably on higher than 11 anyway. It's the end of the season , the grounds attrocious, meetings being cancelled left right and centre, give yourself a break.

If you keep piling the pressure on yourself you'll end up chasing just to show a profit. I was a bit surprised you'd picked one in a Lady riders handicap to be honest. I know fa about racing but I'd probably swerve a ladies amateur race.

Look on the bright side at least any clients would be unlikely to pay the new premium charge at this rate :)

Graeme Dand said...

Steve,

Thanks again for the comment. I agree with you about the fact I need to be realistic and I know my limitations but I still want to do much better than I currently am. I won’t chase as it’s not built in to my systematic approach!

I’ve mentioned this before on here and most of the readers tend to know the way I am but whenever I do something, I want to be the best at it. The same applies here and assuming I get the thing of the ground, I want to make it the best service in existence!

I haven’t mentioned this on here before now but I applied to get on The Apprentice two years ago and got fairly far in the audition process. They decided I was maybe too competitive and ambitious for my age and they decided I should leave it a few years before trying again.

I think that just about sums me up if I’m honest…..

OK, your point about ladies races is a great one. These races can be a nightmare for punters but you can learn to read them. They are always run at a fast pace and you need something that stays much further. It was no coincidence the other day that all the well fancied horses finished at the back as they couldn’t cope with the demands of the race. You can take the form with a pinch of salt to be honest (apart from my horse!)

The jockey point is a great one. One reason I bought into the horse was the fact the jockey had 2 wins from 12 rides or something and was actually pretty decent for an unknown jockey. I’ll keep her on side now!

I’m a great believer in that if you do your homework on the race, you can unpick it fairly well. I won’t use the ground as an excuse as I should be able to figure out which horses can go on it from past form and pedigree, so no excuses from me on that front.

Things like track bias, pace bias and draw bias mess it up for me but it’s the same for everyone. If every horse ran to form in every race, I’d have the winner in most races and we’d all be rich!!!!

G

Steve said...

lol , I can imagine just from reading the blog they'd find you too competitive and ambitious :) Thats the benefit of youth , you want it all now and see no reason why you shouldn't have it. Sadly you get into your 30's , hangovers appear where before they didn't , kids come along, mortgages etc and you end up being more conservative in your ambitions so keep that dream alive as long as you can.

What were you trying to sell on there ? A friend of mine got to the audition stage but didn't get chosen fo the main prog, he was touting some online business idea.

Graeme Dand said...

Ahhh…….

You’re mixing up two different shows mate but I might appear on the other one in a few months time trying to sell a 25% share for £50k in the most successful tipping business out there!

The show you are referring to is Dragon’s Den where you sell a share of your business or idea for a wad of cash. That’s where I’ll be pitching my tipping service in a few months……..

The Apprentice is the one with Alan Sugar where you start with 16 overly ambitious assholes who have their heads so far up their own arse then can barely move. I applied to get on that show! lol

I was going to apply to be on The Apprentice for the next series but The Experiment got in the way, so maybe next year…..

I take on board your points regarding youth. I have about 4 months of my 12 month experiment left to see if I can make a regular income from my horse-racing knowledge. If not, I’ll pack in the horse-racing again (I didn’t look at it seriously for 5 years before this year!) and find something else to do with my spare time….

I think a book entitled “How a Pricing Analyst went from zero to hero in the world of horse-racing by creating the most successful tipping service in 12 months from his work desk” would be an interesting read……lol

Cheers mate.

G

GeorgeH said...

Any book with more than five words in the title will never sell...:-)

GeorgeH.

Steve said...

Graeme,

Tracked back through the notes and you are -1 points this month as you suggested.

Steve

GeorgeH said...

Not any more! Nice winner at Brighton today. Well analysed Graeme.
GeorgeH.