Daily Loss £120.00
Being honest, these blog posts are getting more difficult to write every night and if I was under pressure earlier in the month, I’m buried under it now! lol
I’m running out of words to express my disappointment every night and I’m even struggling to know what to write tonight. I gave out two maximum selections today and I think it’s reaching the stage that if I gave out Dancing Brave in a 0-85 handicap, I’d get the fucker beat by tipping it to win.
My first selection today was Poppy Day. I’m not going to go through a million reasons why this should have run well today but the truth of the matter is that it was beaten over 20 lengths and if it was a 3m chase, that would be respectable but it was a bloody flat race! On its previous career runs, it has never been beaten nearly as far as this and some of these were over a sprit distance when it had no chance and on its debut when it was 200/1.
The horse has clearly run nowhere near to form and all I can think is that something was amiss with it. It finished out the back with lots of horses who didn’t handle the ground but we know Poppy would have handled the ground as it has handled it on every other start of its life, so I really don’t have an explanation.
Someone sent me a note saying it got a poor ride and Andrew suggested its run was unsatisfactory (my tips are bloody unsatisfactory!) but I don’t know what happened. I seem to be saying this every day this month but yet another horse has run nowhere near to form when I’ve selected it. All I can say is that the horse is clearly much better than it showed here but it’s difficult to back it next time with any confidence after that run.
Being honest, this post is just going to get even more depressing as for the second time in two days, I’ve managed to foil a large gamble on a horse by tipping it in the morning! Yesterday, Fever was backed from 14/1 to 5/1 and ran appallingly.
Today, Overrule was strong all day and the world wanted to back this today. When I saw it priced up this morning at 8/1, I was slightly disappointed but the bookies aren’t daft when it comes to these sorts of horses. However, even at 8/1, it was a maximum bet and it was backed all the way down to 5/1 at the off and was remarkably strong.
I only heard the commentary but it appeared that it wasn’t given the best of rides as the winner had already flown by the time Overrule made his move. Andrew confirmed it straight after the race by saying that the jockey waited too long but I can’t comment to be honest. Either way, the horse finished over 2 lengths clear of the remainder in second and if you take away the winner, it won easily but unfortunately, I can’t!
The problem with a horse like this is that you only get one shot at it. Next time, this will be favourite and can’t be backed. It should win but I won’t be backing it. Today was the day to back it and we were all on at a decent price. I don’t quite understand why it traded just over 2 if it was well beaten but it just about sums up my month from hell.
I got in from work tonight and I expected a barrage of abuse in emails. Being honest, anyone who writes on a blog that he has found two amazing bets and both lose, deserves to take a bit of stick. However, when I checked my emails, I had two supportive emails saying to just keep what I’m doing and the profits will roll in!
Being honest, it amazed me to be honest and I’m slightly embarrassed by it. I’ve decided to give a free trial of tips in a month when I’ve barely managed to select a horse that’s run well let alone a winner. How people can see past this is beyond me and it only makes me more determined to work harder in the remainder of the month.
Andrew questioned my staking today and I said I’d quickly mention it on here. Being honest, selecting two 3 point bets in one day smacks of desperation slightly but it definitely wasn’t. One thing I made clear at the start of the month is that I didn’t know how my staking plan would work. I have never used a 3 point staking system and I didn’t know when a 3 point bet would come along. So far this month, I’ve give four 3 point bets and all four have lost now!!!!!
Andrew made a good point about Fort Churchill and I know this myself. This should have been a 2 point bet and so should my other winner. However, by only putting 1 point win on them, it’s actually helped create the poor position I’m in now.
As I said to Andrew, I pick different types of horses and as the month has gone on, I’ve started to learn about the way I should stake them. When I find horses that have the correct profile, correct form and correct odds, these need to be 3 point bets.
Today, both of these horses had all of the above and therefore, they were definitely 3 point bets. Fever also had all of the attributes yesterday and so did my other 3 point bet.
My error this month (one of many!) has been staking too many points on speculative horses. So far, none of these have won and it’s cost me a lot of points and is costing everyone a lot of money. However, the majority of these have been value bets and therefore, if I continue with the current strategy, in the long-run, everything will all be rosy!
Later this month, I’ll try to define a little scale that I will use to judge stakes next month. The number of ticks that the horse meets will define the staking. This is basically what I do now but I compute it all in my head and I can do with sharing the thoughts with everyone.
I should probably end by saying that I’m now down 15.5 points on the month. Not only that, I’m now in danger of having my second losing month of The Experiment.
The only way I know to improve the situation is to continue analysing races as I currently do and hope that I start to select some winners again. I know my method works and in the long-term, I don’t see an issue but as I said at the start of the month, I want to be judged on this month’s analysis and selections. Time is still on my side though, so I’ll keep grinding away and looking for some winners.
The month from hell continues…….