Tuesday, 16 September 2008

Start Sharpening The Knives......

Daily Loss £120.00

Being honest, these blog posts are getting more difficult to write every night and if I was under pressure earlier in the month, I’m buried under it now! lol

I’m running out of words to express my disappointment every night and I’m even struggling to know what to write tonight. I gave out two maximum selections today and I think it’s reaching the stage that if I gave out Dancing Brave in a 0-85 handicap, I’d get the fucker beat by tipping it to win.

My first selection today was Poppy Day. I’m not going to go through a million reasons why this should have run well today but the truth of the matter is that it was beaten over 20 lengths and if it was a 3m chase, that would be respectable but it was a bloody flat race! On its previous career runs, it has never been beaten nearly as far as this and some of these were over a sprit distance when it had no chance and on its debut when it was 200/1.

The horse has clearly run nowhere near to form and all I can think is that something was amiss with it. It finished out the back with lots of horses who didn’t handle the ground but we know Poppy would have handled the ground as it has handled it on every other start of its life, so I really don’t have an explanation.

Someone sent me a note saying it got a poor ride and Andrew suggested its run was unsatisfactory (my tips are bloody unsatisfactory!) but I don’t know what happened. I seem to be saying this every day this month but yet another horse has run nowhere near to form when I’ve selected it. All I can say is that the horse is clearly much better than it showed here but it’s difficult to back it next time with any confidence after that run.

Being honest, this post is just going to get even more depressing as for the second time in two days, I’ve managed to foil a large gamble on a horse by tipping it in the morning! Yesterday, Fever was backed from 14/1 to 5/1 and ran appallingly.

Today, Overrule was strong all day and the world wanted to back this today. When I saw it priced up this morning at 8/1, I was slightly disappointed but the bookies aren’t daft when it comes to these sorts of horses. However, even at 8/1, it was a maximum bet and it was backed all the way down to 5/1 at the off and was remarkably strong.

I only heard the commentary but it appeared that it wasn’t given the best of rides as the winner had already flown by the time Overrule made his move. Andrew confirmed it straight after the race by saying that the jockey waited too long but I can’t comment to be honest. Either way, the horse finished over 2 lengths clear of the remainder in second and if you take away the winner, it won easily but unfortunately, I can’t!

The problem with a horse like this is that you only get one shot at it. Next time, this will be favourite and can’t be backed. It should win but I won’t be backing it. Today was the day to back it and we were all on at a decent price. I don’t quite understand why it traded just over 2 if it was well beaten but it just about sums up my month from hell.

I got in from work tonight and I expected a barrage of abuse in emails. Being honest, anyone who writes on a blog that he has found two amazing bets and both lose, deserves to take a bit of stick. However, when I checked my emails, I had two supportive emails saying to just keep what I’m doing and the profits will roll in!

Being honest, it amazed me to be honest and I’m slightly embarrassed by it. I’ve decided to give a free trial of tips in a month when I’ve barely managed to select a horse that’s run well let alone a winner. How people can see past this is beyond me and it only makes me more determined to work harder in the remainder of the month.

Andrew questioned my staking today and I said I’d quickly mention it on here. Being honest, selecting two 3 point bets in one day smacks of desperation slightly but it definitely wasn’t. One thing I made clear at the start of the month is that I didn’t know how my staking plan would work. I have never used a 3 point staking system and I didn’t know when a 3 point bet would come along. So far this month, I’ve give four 3 point bets and all four have lost now!!!!!

Andrew made a good point about Fort Churchill and I know this myself. This should have been a 2 point bet and so should my other winner. However, by only putting 1 point win on them, it’s actually helped create the poor position I’m in now.

As I said to Andrew, I pick different types of horses and as the month has gone on, I’ve started to learn about the way I should stake them. When I find horses that have the correct profile, correct form and correct odds, these need to be 3 point bets.

Today, both of these horses had all of the above and therefore, they were definitely 3 point bets. Fever also had all of the attributes yesterday and so did my other 3 point bet.

My error this month (one of many!) has been staking too many points on speculative horses. So far, none of these have won and it’s cost me a lot of points and is costing everyone a lot of money. However, the majority of these have been value bets and therefore, if I continue with the current strategy, in the long-run, everything will all be rosy!

Later this month, I’ll try to define a little scale that I will use to judge stakes next month. The number of ticks that the horse meets will define the staking. This is basically what I do now but I compute it all in my head and I can do with sharing the thoughts with everyone.

I should probably end by saying that I’m now down 15.5 points on the month. Not only that, I’m now in danger of having my second losing month of The Experiment.

The only way I know to improve the situation is to continue analysing races as I currently do and hope that I start to select some winners again. I know my method works and in the long-term, I don’t see an issue but as I said at the start of the month, I want to be judged on this month’s analysis and selections. Time is still on my side though, so I’ll keep grinding away and looking for some winners.

The month from hell continues…….

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Graeme,
Couple of things I would say regarding the last couple of days:
1)The price should be irrelevant as long as it is much bigger than it should be. Obviously you need a cut off point, say 6/4, where anything lower and you are getting away from a "tipping service" as such. I for one would be more than happy to get 3/1 or 4/1 5 length winners!!!
2)I was unable to get your mail in time today so did a bit of second guessing last night and backed both of your selections today to a 1.5pts ew at 25s and 8s. i also playedthem up in an ew double. I have to say that having read your email later today, I was a bit surprised to see that you played win only! I know you don't like ew betting but at those proces it made more sense to me!
Finally, I think you need to adjust your staking system personally as a 3pt bandwidth is not really an accurate reflection of the strength of the bets. I would suggest 1-5 or 1-10 would be much better and this would allow you to differentiate the "certs" from the "speculative choices". To put things in perspective i have never received a max bet from either of my tipping services in 4 years!!!
Keep using the same selection methods and I'm sure things will turn round soon.
Good luck
Gags

bettingbiz said...

Hi Graeme,
Don't beat yourself up you felt you had alarge edge today and subsequently you invested proportionatly to the theoretical edge you felt you had. There is nothing wrong with this Graeme, by investing heavily when there is higher value you have a workable model providing you do have an edge.
Backing at the odds you are selecting their will be bad losing runs but the profit on turnover will be alot higher at level. Also do not be swayed from outright win backing this is the most profitable approach. Anyone who is serious about making money from betting Graeme will not be bothered about losing runs if you show results to be profitable long term. 15 points down is nothing Graeme a couple of winners will put you back in the black. Don't be downbeat look forward and be confident you know you will succeed

GeorgeH said...

Graeme,
If it were possible to consistently pick winners solely on "form" there'd be no bookies or Betfair. It would no longer be a "gamble" if form always worked out.

So, every selection you, or any other form expert, come up with is still a gamble! There is no such thing as a certainty in racing.

My very first wager was back in the early 1950s when I worked as a day-book clerk in Charringtons, the beer people. A rep for our wines and spirits sister company called in one day to my office and told us all to back a nag running at one of the smaller tracks, Fontwell or Folkestone, in an early race over the sticks. It was called Bahktapeace and I'll never forget the name.

I had 2/6d each way (that's 12.5p in 'new pence' money!). That 5/- stake was quite a hefty bet for me in those days. Bahktapeace was the rag of the race and won by a street at 33-1 and half the staff at Charringtons were on it with the local bookie's runner. (No shops in those days. You wrote your bet on the back of a fag packet and surreptiously gave it to a shifty looking bloke on the corner of the street, who passed it on to a bookie!)

That first bet of mine confirmed me as a horse-racing addict. I have lost more than I care to remember over the years since then, but I've NEVER been a big bettor. It's just for fun with me. My main joy comes from picking a winner, such as Chookie Hamilton yesterday, and listening to it run.

So, Graeme, your blog and your emails/analysis/selection is of much interest to me and I will stay with you and hope it proves to be successful in the long run. If your experiment fails it will not be the end of the world.

Be lucky,
GeorgeH.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Gags. Trying to finally answer some of the comments from recently….

1). Agree in principle mate but as you know, I always try to unpick the hardest possible race I can find. I don’t go looking for easy races and as such, I’m not a ‘normal’ tipster.

My belief is that in the long-run, my knowledge will enable me to beat the market in these races and consequently, we’ll earn a profit. Experience has shown me that not only can I beat the market, I can usually do it fairly comfortably over time which means my return can be quite high at times. Selecting 4/1 selections in the hardest races of the day is not really a way to make money in the long-run from my own experiences.

2). I only ever play win only and always have. I live with the fact that in the long-run, playing each-way will ultimately cost me money as most of mines win or get well beaten. This won’t suit everyone and people don’t like losing money for long spells but I’m used to that and it’s built in to any betting bank I use.

As I admitted at the start of the month, I have never used a staking plan. I just bet what I ‘feel’ on every horse. No systematic approach and no chasing etc. I usually just play level stakes on every horse apart from ones I really fancy. I know this blunts my edge slightly but as I’ve said before, I usually pick so many winners it doesn’t matter.

Clearly, I’ve made some horrendous errors this month and the only reason I’m down so many points is because I’ve fuc*ed up with the staking. I know lots of people are playing level stakes though and doing better.

One point I’ve made on the blog many times in the past is the fact that I always have a strong view on every race I look at. Hence, when I’m trying to choose a stake, it’s very hard for me. I maybe should just use 1 point win on every horse and see where that gets me.

One point you need to realise is that I’m not a normal tipster service and never will be. No tipster in the world would nap a 25/1 shot who has been well beaten in every race in its life (and was again yesterday).

In all honesty, very few tipsters would select the horses I do but they don’t have my knowledge in my opinion. I don’t know what ‘edge’ they have but I’m sure the best tipsters have one and that’s why they do well at the game.

In summary, this month was meant to be a free trial and I suggested everyone just follow my selections or play with small stakes. The intention was not for anyone to do their bollocks on my horses. If anyone is playing serious, I hope they have used a reasonable staking plan and have factored in lengthy losing runs as it happens to me all the time……when I get it right though, the returns pay the mortgage for a little while!

G

Graeme Dand said...

Bettingbiz,

You talk a lot of sense mate and I think we are on the same page. As you know, trying to pick winners regularly is difficult and you need to have a fairly substantial ‘edge’ to make it succeed.

At the moment, I have knowledge but not a lot of experience. In time, both of these should grow and as long as I worry about the profitability long-term, everything will work out fine.

I know I’ve made some very novice mistakes this month (with staking especially) but that was the point of the free month. I was trying to use this month to learn how I can do better in the future and to give people a flavour of what I know.

It’s been a good month for both of these but the bottom line is a shame. As you say though, a couple of winners and the world will look a better place!

Cheers mate,

G

Graeme Dand said...

Hi George.

I liked your story…..

Horse-racing has always been fun for me too but it’s also been easy to dip in and out of it for extra cash when I was short. It was fairly easy to make a few quid when I needed it at university for example. A week punting the horses with my student loan would pay my mortgage for a few months!

The Experiment was meant to be an opportunity to make some regular money and so far, it’s proved difficult. The fact I’m giving tipping a go shows how much I disliked trading on Betfair and going by this month, I wish I was trading again! lol

As you say, if the game was as easy as people say, we’d all be millionaires.

I’m glad you enjoy the blog and analysis etc. I enjoy doing it and I hope that I can repay some of you for showing so much faith in me!

G

Anonymous said...

Hi Graeme,

Just wanted to point out I am not running your efforts down, merely trying to make some suggestions. Having read your response again, I appreciate that you are not like the tipsters I follow, and you are correct in saying they would not be looking to play in the sort of races you specialise, however that is what i like about your blog. I actually think that you make a good point in suggesting all your bets are 1pt wins as this will ensure that you are not frustrated when the winners are always the smallest stake!!!! I am they type of punter who can accept long losing runs and still stake in exactly the same way so the faact you may experience these will not bother me in the least! My only concern is that not everyone is like me and the fact that other people will be giving you grief will probably only add to the pressure that running such a service will bring!!
Anyway I hope you have got your chin up again, and as others have said, a couple of winners and your confidence will be sky high again!
Cheers
Gags

Graeme Dand said...

Cheers Gags.

I know you are one of the supporters mate!

At the moment, you either lie in one of two camps on here...lol

Thanks for the suggestions. Apologies if I maybe came across annoyed as it wasn't meant. I wrote the response very quickly and sometimes, the way I write can be easily misinterpreted by people.

I hope you aren't doing too bad this month and I'm sure it will turn around for me and you. Deep down, I'm still confident but on the surface, my confidence has gone and I'm laughing at myself at the moment!

I'll find some winners soon.....

G