Wednesday, 3 September 2008

A Broken Promise!

Daily Loss £25.00

I made a promise in my email this morning but if you have looked at today’s results, you’ll know why I want to break the promise!

I spent about 2 hours looking at 4 very difficult handicaps last night. I came up with 4 selections and I did think about tipping all 4 today for 1/2 point win. I decided instead to have 1 point win on the one I thought was the best value and annoyingly, it ran easily the worst race!

However, I still made the right decision as my other 3 all lost, so I saved us a point today. It was very close to being a huge mistake though, so I got lucky today.

Firstly, the horse I tipped today was Acquifer (4.20) for 1 point win. It was very weak all day, started at 24 on Betfair (12/1 SP) and ran like a hairy goat. It clearly didn’t run to form and I’ve no complaints. I had £20 on at 18 and I thought it was a great price. I was wrong.

I wasn’t sure about talking about the other 3 races I analysed as I don’t want people to think I’m pulling the wool at any time but as one eagle-eyed work colleague pointed out to me at lunchtime today, everyone already knew 2 of the other selections as I mentioned them on the blog last night!

I forgot all about this when I wrote the email this morning, so I was trying to not mention the other 3 and yet I’d mentioned 2 of them on the blog post last night. I know I’m making lots of mistakes at the moment but as I keep saying, I’m new to this game. Subscribers wouldn’t be best pleased to buy tips from someone who posts them on a blog the previous night!

Anyway, my other 3 selections I had today were Fly Kiss (3.00), Shesha Bear (4.00) and Franksalot (5.00).

The reasons for not backing each were fairly straightforward for me.

Fly Kiss was dropping down the handicap and it was closely linked in form with Acquifer. However, Acquifer looked to have a much easier race today, so I didn’t want to put all my eggs in one basket on this form line.

Shesha Bear was tipped by me when it won last time at 13/2. Today, it was 4lb higher in a tougher race and was half the price. As I said to Andrew this morning, I would have loved to tip this today but something inside of me won’t let me back horses like this. Last time was the time to bet on it. Not today.

Franksalot was the most interesting one for me. It loves Brighton and if it wasn’t for the fact it disappointed me on Monday, this would have been today’s tip. However, after hearing what happened on Monday, I had a huge doubt about the horse staying this trip today. On the plus side, I was so sure on Monday it would return to form and I’m never usually that badly wrong about horses. This made me look a fool on Monday…..

For those that don’t know the results, Fly Kiss was 4th at 9/1, Shesha Bear was 2nd at 4/1 (traded 1.13 IR), and Franksalot was 2nd at 16/1 (traded 3 IR).

Therefore, in 4 races, I had 1 bad loser, a 4th and 2 seconds. Obviously, I happened to select the wrong horse today to tip but I would have lost either way, so no complaints.

The most pleasing horse for me was Franksalot. It gives me a bit of satisfaction when I managed to spot it was about to return to form. Today, the form figures for this horse were 00000. Therefore, it’s pleasing to know that I spotted it when it returned to form. That’s my edge over every other tipster in the land. I had £5 win today at 28 which IMO, was worth the risk.

As it turns out, we can never back Franksalot now as everyone knows it has returned to form and the price is gone but anyone who lost money on this on Monday can be pleased with the knowledge that they got a good bet even though it appeared a bad bet straight after the race!

Nick raised a very good point today about tracking my profit of the Tipping Experiment. I’m tracking every horse I select in a spreadsheet and I’m keeping record of the SP and the price I recommend (or best price people get from a bookmaker within 10 minutes of me sending the email!).

Someone else has said that a true test of a tipster is how they do at SP. Being honest, I don’t really care how people judge me. As I’ve said before on here, I’m so confident that I’ll do well at this, I don’t care if you judge me at SP or best price.

Tipping Legends quote both and I was planning on quoting both. If people want, I’ll just quote SP. I see that Tipping Legends have made 10.5, 1, -10.7, 89.1, 43.2, -9, 16 points each month since they started up at SP.

By my reckoning, that’s a profit of 140.1 in 7 months which is 20 points profit a month. In my opinion, this is absolutely fantastic and shows me that they know what they are doing and are probably the best tipping service out there at the moment. Do I think I can match that or beat that? If I didn’t, I wouldn’t have started this tipping experiment…….

Someone also sent me an email today asking about the average price of my selections in the long run. As I’ve said many times before on here, I specialise in competitive handicaps and therefore, I’m not like the typical tipping service! I’m guessing that my average SP will be around 10/1 in the long-run, so we need to be aware that losing runs are matter of the course.

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s racing and I’m going to concentrate on one race tomorrow. I’m feeling very confident with how I’m reading races and form lines, so I’m going to unpick the first race at Redcar. It’s a 20 runner 2 year old handicap with the favourite at about 6/1. Sounds like my cup of tea….

12 comments:

Alistair said...

I'm quite happy Graeme as I made £15 on Acquifer today. I backed it at 15 for a fiver, then, just before the off at 23 for another fiver. Traded out in-running at 7.60 for £25.

Cheers mate, it went a long way to saving my day.

Alistair
Bet Your Life Sports Trading

Graeme Dand said...

Well done Ali.

As I've said many times on here mate, there are many ways to skin a cat on Betfair. Out of my 5 tips thus far, only one hasn't traded below 6 having been available to back at twice the odds.

Hence, you could have had 4 Evs money winners and 1 loser thus far.

Nice going though. Andrew said it ran badly so I was surprised it traded so low but it's linked to what we discussed recently!

G

Anthony said...

I backed it at 17 and traded out at 7.2 when it 'looked' (I don't have pictures) liked it wasn't going to win so I'm happy too. As it happened my trade on the favourite in that race was my best of the day so I'm satisfied. It also means we're one race nearer you picking another winner!

Graeme Dand said...

Anthony,

I know you’re slightly tongue in cheek at the end but the only reason I backed Franksalot yesterday for £5 at 28 was that I said to Andrew that I never select 4 horses in a day that lose!!!!

I wasn’t far off from being correct……

Nice to see you won mate. Not sure if you have traded all of my selections so far but if you had, only 1 hasn’t traded below half the starting price IR, so you’d be doing OK!

Today’s tip may test your nerve a bit as it has the potential to be a bloody massive price! Getting that to half in price may be more difficult unless it runs a stormer….

G

Anonymous said...

Graeme,

You just won me a fortune son.

I got the tricast

Stan

Tipping God!

Steve said...

Graeme,

Sign me up for next month.

Never seen anything like that in my whole betting life.

Tipping God seems appropiate to me.

Steve

PS Very well done!

Anonymous said...

Graeme,

I did forecats and Tricasts. I won over £1,400 for a £24 stake.

Thank you so much.

Stan

Dan said...

Amazing G.

Fucking amazing.

Dan

Dave said...

You're in the wrong job Graeme.

Best analysis I've ever read on a race. Hope you made it pay.

Dave

Robert said...

Graeme,

I layed the favourite at 5, dutched your 4 and used my Ladbrokes account to do straight forecasts. A decent 3 figure return for a free email. Great read also.

I laughed at people’s comments on here about you trying to con people. Where are these people now?

Robert

Steve said...

Well done Graeme , good to see the hard work paying off :) God knows why you even considered trading with the form reading skills you've got :)

Just got back from my hols and trying to get through your backlog of posts .

Graeme Dand said...

Stan,

Thanks for the email mate. I'm really please for you as you know.

I would never have attempted that bet in a million years, so you deserve the credit more than me!

Cheers Steve. It's not the first time I've read a race as well as that but it's probably the best read this year. It was the hardest race by miles today!

lol Dan. Cheers.

Dave, as you will have seen, I couldn't make it pay. Difficult when I'm working. I just had a bet on the worst one!

Robert, great idea to lay the fav. It couldn't win IMO. I was right....

Cheers Steve. I was trying to trade mate as I don't have the cash or time to make my knowledge pay. If I had a bank and was trading that race today, I could have won any amount. Andrew did it with very small stakes and won a very large amount....