Monday, 15 September 2008

In a better mood.........

Daily Loss £40.00

Before I start tonight’s post, I’m in a slightly better mood due to the fact that two of the best bets of the whole flat turf season run on the same day tomorrow. It’s as if it’s written in the stars that I pick two 20/1 winners tomorrow but we’ll see……

Being honest, today will go down as my worst day this month as I’ve managed to haemorrhage us another 5 points. If Saturday was a nightmare losing 3.5 points, then today must really be bad! I’ve lost 8.5 points in two days and I’m staring a nightmare month in the face to be honest.

Unlike Saturday, I didn’t do a lot wrong today. I’m starting to feel like I should put a disclaimer on every email saying “This selection assumes that the horse will run to form, if it doesn’t run to form, it won’t win.”

Today, I analysed a form line in the 4.50 race. It involved horse A, horse B and horse C. Last time, A beat B by 1 length and B beat C by1 length. B had the worst draw and was slightly unlucky in running. C had a nightmare passage in the race. A had the best draw, got the rails run and got all the splits.

Subsequently, B has run a blinder in a much better race and performed about 4lbs above his rating. Today, they all met off the same mark as before. Who should win today?

I plumped for horses B and C to gain revenge on A and due to the fact that B has since run 4lbs above his rating, all he had to do was repeat that run and he would win today. B was the selection.

As it turns out, A wins the race at 11/2, C runs a great race and trades at 1.5 IR and B finishes a never nearer 5th and is well beaten by the other two.

Annoyingly, B has run nowhere near the last run and has performed about 6lbs below the last run and clearly, hasn’t even run to the same form as the previous race.

What chance have I got? Yet another selection runs poorly for me……

All day, I’ve been thinking about the fact I put up that horse up as a selection. One point I’ve made clear on here before is that I honestly can’t judge the value regarding these horses. I’ll be honest with everyone and this may annoy a few of you but I didn’t back that today. I can’t bring myself to back a horse in a 14 runner race at 2/1.

However, the reason I gave it as a selection is purely down to the fact it should have won if it ran to form. Therefore, if we ran that race 10 times and that horse ran to form, it would have won 8 times I guess, so 4/5 was maybe the correct price. As today showed though, and as I know myself, horses are not machines.

I’m not sure if people will agree with this but I’ve made a decision that I’ll never select a short-priced favourite as a selection when I’m giving selections. I can’t really define ‘short’ as it depends on the race but I won’t ever select a 2/1 chance in a 14 runner race again that’s for sure. This won’t please everyone but its how I feel.

Overall, another nightmare race and 2 points lost for me.

My second selection just about sums up my month if I’m honest. I issued the email today at 9.45am as soon as I saw that a couple of bookmakers had priced up Fever at 14/1 in the 5.20 race. I said this to a few of you in emails today but I had a feeling that it would start around 9/2 (it started at 5/1).

As I suggested this morning, this was an attempt at a stable coup by Mick Easterby and I’ve witnessed lots of these across the years. His strike rate is usually about 50% for these types when they are punted. Today, this has finished a well beaten 8th and apart from holding my hands up, what else can I say.

I said this morning that I couldn’t guarantee the horse would win or run well but I knew that the bookmakers had made a boob by pricing it up as a 14/1 chance. It was no 14/1 chance!

In my opinion, this horse was the best bet this month at 14/1. The fact it ran shit shouldn’t come into it to be honest as I can’t be held responsible for the fact that horses are not running to form. If this ran to the mark that it is capable of, it would have won today and Mick will know this also.

Overall, a 3 point loss which really is a killer to be honest and I hope some of you traded in the early price on Betfair to reduce the risk and increase the odds. I lost £40 on the race which was £30 on the place market and £10 on the win market as I traded in £20 at 6.8 having backed at 13.5.

I don’t feel too bad tonight as in the first race, I narrowed it down to 3, got the right form line and my selection ran below form. If it had run to form, it would have won. In the second race, I spotted the sort of thing that very few people in this game can spot but annoyingly, for about the umpteenth time this month, my horse has run well below expectations.

I will have 2 selections tomorrow and both will be maximum bets. To have 2 maximum bets in one day is a first for me and being honest, both of these may be the best bets of the whole season (assuming they win which means they overtake my previous best bets this season!)

Both are also likely to be massive punts if I’m right, so expect an early email once I see the first show tomorrow. The Sporting Life has priced them up at 14/1 and 20/1. The Racing Post has them priced up at 10/1 and 20/1.

My only decision is whether we go for win bets or each-way bets but I’ll be dictated by the odds. The ironic thing about tomorrow is the fact that I thought I’d have to wait a long time to back these two and they both appear on the same day which amazes me! The fact that I'm 9 points down on the month means I'm glad they are running!

Maybe it’s a sign that my luck is about to change………..


GeorgeH said...

Another bad day Graeme. Can't say fairer than that.

However, I came out in front as I am a fan of Linda Perrat and had a "saver" on Chookie Hamilton in the 5.20 - cold comfort to you, I realise that, but a great result for moi.

Better luck tomorrow with your two selections. I'll back them both again, probably eachway and a small ew double the two - but I shall wait to see what's what of course.

Good luck, GeorgeH

Graeme Dand said...

That's probably a fair assessment mate!

I said it myself....

WD with Chookie. Maybe you should be supplying me with the selections for next month mate!


liam said...

Hi Graeme
You were going to add me to your list

Liam O Connor

Graeme Dand said...

Very sorry mate!

I'll forward you the note now....

Nice timing to get added to the list I hope!!!!!


Anonymous said...

My feedback.

I came over here after hearing about the best form reader in the Uk in 30 years on the betfair forum.

I think I have now got 16 losers ... may be wrong - but it is about that.

I am down over a grand on these ... and that is a lot for me ... but I thought, maybe this is the man - and I would have no problem subscribing if required.

Yes I backed a few each way, even though you only said win - but mainly I did win only.

I think you are probably a nice guy - but you are not the man ... you appear to pick one line of form in a race and decide everything on that ...

some have ran so appalingly bad that it is incredible that an expert picked them out ... because that is what you are or should be if you charge.

I can only blame myself for being an absolute idiotic gobshite for following somebody I found on a forum .. but that is life ... never again

I wish you the best of luck in the future - but I will not be following ... that may give you a chance LOL.