Daily Profit £28.00
I know people think I’m hard on myself at times but that’s just the way I am. I’ve made lots of errors this month as I’ve admitted and I made another one today.
I sent my analysis to Andrew last night and as usual, his comments were waiting for me when I logged on this morning. Andrew thought that Game Lad was easily my best bet of the day and thought it was a great find by me. However, he was surprised at my staking as he couldn’t understand why I’d gamble 2 points in a 27 runner handicap and only 1 point on Game Lad.
I said it was because River Falcon was a bigger price and I thought that was more value than Game Lad even though Game Lad was more likely to win. Andrew also thought that Let’s Roll and Malapropism didn’t offer much value as the whole world appeared to think they would return to form today, so I had no margin there.
This game is much easier with hindsight but Andrew was 100% spot on today. Why I only had 1 point win on Game Lad is beyond me but after seeing a horse hose up, you always wish you had more on. As I said to Andrew, my confidence has taken a real battering this month and it has affected my confidence in the way I read horses. I've had so many horses like Game Lad run poor this month, it's difficult to keep believing in them!
As I said in the email today, Game Lad had 3 wins from 7 runs on heavy and it really is a different horse on heavy ground. This season, it’s been useless but it’s never had the ground. Today, it had the ground and absolutely dotted up. For a few seconds, I thought it wasn’t going to get a run but the jockey knew he was on the best horse today, so he pulled it around to the outside and still won easily.
One interesting point this month is my 4 winners have all won very easily. I wish I could swap an easy winner for 2 short-head winners but it’s not as easy as that.
My other 3 ran poorly today although River Falcon did better than it seemed. It was on the wrong side of the track (4 of first 5 on other side!) and it finished 10th overall. It didn’t get a good run and it became very tight at a crucial stage on that side. This is 3lbs higher in future races now and we can score that off the list.
Let’s Roll ran a shocking race and I won’t be backing this again. The horse was beaten 20 lengths and it is clearly not the horse it was. It was the first one beaten and came home tailed off.
Someone commented a little while ago that they were surprised a so called ‘expert’ can pick horses who finish tailed off. This morning, I read a piece from Mark Winstanley saying he thought that Let’s Roll had been laid out all season for this race which was my view also pre-race. We were both wrong and he earns a fortune giving advice whereas my advice is free at the moment!
My last selection was Malapropism and this ran a strange race. It attempted to make all, hit a flat spot and then stayed on again to be 8th. I still think this may pop up this season but it needs its visor back on! If anyone from the stable is reading this, put the visor back on this please…….
Today is a good example of why other tipsters don’t use SP betting to track profits!
I gave out Game Lad at 6/1 this morning, it opened 5/1 on the course and was punted down to 10/3 before winning. Obviously, at SP I make a 0.5 points loss on the day but as you will have seen by my profit, I followed my own staking today and won £28, so no one could have possibly lost today I think unless you didn’t get on 5 mins before the off.
That’s me now -11.5 points on the month but being 100% honest, after the month I’ve had, this is starting to not sound too bad! lol
However, I need to get my head around the staking issue before next month as it’s no good giving out winners like today when I only have 1 point on winners and more on losers!
Thanks for the comments and feedback so far. I’m hoping the new website will be up and running fully later in the week if all goes to plan, so everyone can pop across and have a look and let me know what you think.
There are unlikely to be any selections tomorrow as the racing looks poor on the flat. The jumps season hasn’t started in earnest yet and I don’t want to get involved in that just yet.
Looking forward to next week now as I know I can still turn this month around. I've barely got anything right at all month and yet, I'm an 11/1 winner away from getting back to level.....that's my target now. I'm going to work even harder to find the winners I need!