Sunday, 7 September 2008

Look at the big picture!

Daily Profit £10.00

As the tonight’s title states, I think we need to start looking at the big picture. Some readers are getting slightly carried away at the moment and the blog is in danger of turning into a riot!

Firstly, I know I allow anonymous comments on here but please leave a name with each comment. This comment especially applies to people who are on the distribution list for the emails. Don’t criticise me anonymously as it is very unfair in my opinion and I don’t mind criticism as long as I feel it is justified.

Also, I know some readers will be disappointed with the criticism but I can cope with the criticism of a few, so I don’t want readers to respond with a tirade of abuse at anyone who criticises. I appreciate that people are sticking up for me but I don’t want people using abusive language to get across their point….

Right, let’s look at today. A few people have said I’ve lost my discipline today by giving two selections and in one way, they are right. After spending 6+ hours looking at races over a few days, I was desperate to find a selection. As you all saw in the email, I thought both races were very tricky today and I decided on 0.5 points win on both selections as a way of copping out!

My first selection was Sphinx in the 4.00. It finished 2nd at 14/1 but being honest, it was never going to beat the winner. This result led to an anonymous comment from someone saying that I deserve flak for saying that the fav was a possible lay selection for people who like laying as it was held on two form lines.

Let’s get a few things straight. Why people lay horses I’ve no idea. I’ll never lay a single horse as it means you are backing at odds on and I never back at odds on. Also, on the form line, the favourite was held. It’s in the form book in black and white.

What I didn’t factor in was the fact the favourite was still improving. I’ve said it a million times on here before but the horses who will always stuff me are the improvers. I always go by what the form book says. The form book lied today but in the long-run, it tells the truth.

Another point is the fact the favourite was 7/4. If I’d laid a 10/1 shot that had won, give me stick and I’ll take it but it was 7/4! In addition, my selection was 24 on Betfair and traded at about 2.5. So, even if you had laid the fav, you could still have made a profit easily (as pointed out by in a comment!).

If you asked me to analyse that race again, I would always back Sphinx and at 14/1, it was an amazing bet.

So you are aware, I had my maximum 3 points win (£60) on that at 24 on Betfair. I laid off at 12 very early on to get riskfree and I took £20 profit at 6 with a large sum left on the horse if it had won. All in all, not a bad race.

Overall though, a 0.5 point loss on the race for the blog monthly tipping P&L.

The 4.30 race was an interesting race. I couldn’t find anything I wanted to bet on here and I should never have given a tip. I knew that I had to select a high drawn horse and I made a great comment about the draw. The eagle-eyed will have noticed that horses drawn 1,2 and 3 were the last three home. Nothing surprising there if I’m being honest but I should have taken my own advice in the email……

Looking at the result now, it’s easy to see that I should have backed the winner. It was slipping down the handicap and was on a winnable mark. I initially thought straight after the race that this was the 1 in 4 race that I couldn’t select the winner of and I’ve said that to a few of you in emails but having looked at it closely tonight, I could have selected that. It ran better the last twice than it initially looked when I looked last night and I’ll hold my hands up. We missed a winner there I’m afraid.

My selection was The Bear and it finished way out the back as it was drawn 2. No complaints at all and it was a shitty tip to be honest. Should never have given it and apologies to anyone who lost by backing it.

Today has taught me another valuable lesson but part of it is linked to the fact that this is a free month I think. If I was earning money from looking at form, I wouldn’t care in the slightest about missing out on selections due to non-runners and abandonment’s. However, I’d spent around 6 hours plus looking at form and had no selections to show for it. I got desperate and tried to make these two work for me.

Sphinx wasn’t a bad selection as it at least had a decent form line but The Bear was very poor and I should never have selected it. It was a waste of 0.5 points if I’m honest and a waste of £10 for me.

Anyway, away to look at tomorrow’s racing now and hopefully, we’ll find something there to back. Feels like we can do with a winner to get the ball rolling again!

The big picture though is that anyone who has followed me all month can’t be down. I know the traders who are backing and laying my selections IR are beating my 4 points profit as they are at about the 10 point mark I’m led to believe but it’s early days…..At least no one is losing!

3 comments:

Steve said...

Graeme,

Apologies to you and your readers. The red mist descended yesterday after reading that comment as you saw.

I know you said you didn’t want me to mention this but you hinted at it in your post last night, so I feel obliged to back up what you are saying to some extent.

I have been trading your selections for all of this month (after making a nice profit from the few selections posted on the blog last month). I have been backing at the off on Betfair and laying IR. So far, I have had 10 winners from 12 selections. I have managed to secure odds of between Evs and 7/4 by laying in running with ease. I’m over 10 points up this month already which is a fantastic return for no effort on my part.

I’m not sure if the readers know the amount of hard work which is going on behind the scenes to find these selections and answer emails and write blog posts. How you manage it all I’m not exactly sure but I think you are doing a fantastic job and the service you are providing to these people is better than they could get if they were paying for tips.

It’s a shame there hasn’t been more supportive comments on the blog this month but I know you have said that the emails have all been supportive, so that will give you some encouragement.

I’ll stand by my comment yesterday that you should consider stopping the free trial. The people who think you know what you are doing will follow you regardless of what happens this month. The ones you are trying to convince will never be convinced, so give them a swerve.

Stop the free trial and limit the membership next month to those who believe in you son.

Steve

Anonymous said...

"Stop the free trial and limit the membership next month to those who believe in you son.

Steve"

I thought the idea of the trial was for Graeme to get more exposure not just to provide tips for people willing to kiss ass.

maybe you're right he should stop the blog if the odd negative coment is hurting his feelings so much

Graeme Dand said...

Steve,

Thanks for the comment.

I understand your point about the free trial but I am using this free trial as an opportunity to showcase my skills.

So far, I haven't done half as well as everyone know's I can, so I still have a fair bit to prove to others mate.

Anonymous, I really don't see your issue mate. Everyone knows I'm using this month to get me expsoure.

The comment regarding the negative comments is laughable. They are like water off a duck's back at the moment mate. I'm thicker skinned than you think!

In the long-run, we'll see who's right or wrong regarding my ability to read form. I know people are split on this and I can see why. Some readers haven't been reading the blog since the beginning and don't know me.

I have 3 weeks left to convince the doubters.....the clock is ticking.

G