Tuesday, 2 September 2008

The market isn't always right!

Daily Profit £151.00

Today was an interesting day…..

My first selection was Fort Churchill (2.00) and it proved very weak in the market pre-race. It drifted from 7/1 to 11/1 at the off and it reached 17 on Betfair. The horse won fairly easily by 2 lengths and as I said would happen if it won in my email today, with hindsight, this was probably the bet of the season!

The second selection was much more speculative in my opinion but as the day went on, I was sure it would run a massive race. I initially thought it was worth a bet at odds of around 20/1 this morning but with 6 non-runners, it was available to back at around the 8/1 mark. This was Trafalgar Square (4.55).

This ran a shocking race and I don’t know why. Interestingly, it was backed from an opening show of 7/1 on course to 4/1 before starting at 9/2. Therefore, some other people agreed with me! No consolation for a loser but I think it’s interesting. For the second time in 2 days, one of my tips has been heavily punted on course to half the suggested price and ran a poor race.

As I said last night, if we keep backing horses that start at half the price that we back at, we’ll do well in the long run. Simple as that!

I laughed at a few of the emails and comments concerning Fort Churchill. Its form figures were 040000005 and it had been beaten more than 8 lengths in 8 of these 9 runs. Not really inspiring form!

As I said in the email this morning, these horses are easily my favourite horses to find as when they return to form, they are near certainties to win and they win easily. This returned to form today and shock horror, it wins easily…..

Clearly, everyone wants to know, how did I know it was going to return to form today? Obviously, I didn’t or I would have lumped my mortgage on it but I was able to read between the lines of its last two runs. It ran much better than it appears on paper and the fact I saw its 2nd last run was the key. I saw the way it travelled and to my trained eye (lol), it travelled like a dream as I said this morning. It was hampered and this was the reason it was tailed off.

Last time, it again was well beaten but going by the RP comments, it was held up in last place in a slow run race and was never near leaders. Therefore, it didn’t get the run of the race but it finished clear of the rest in 5th place. This was the key for me. There was 9 lengths back to the 6th in a slow run race. It managed to pulverise the horses it ran against at the back of the field. Hence, it did the best it could in the circumstances.

Combining these two races allowed me believe that it had returned to form and was likely to run well today. Thankfully, I was right!

Steve made a great comment today about the fact my email was very negative in places about the horse and I gave reasons not to back it. As you all know, I’m not trying to pretend to people that I’m a ‘real’ tipster. I have no inside knowledge and all I can base my selections on is what I see in the formbook. Therefore, I’m not going to sit here and say that that horse was an obvious horse to spot and everyone should have spotted it and therefore, I’m not going to write in an email that there were no negatives today. There was lots of speculation and lots of doubts but as I keep saying on here, as long as it’s factored into the price, it’s still worth a punt!

Lastly, I’m amazed at the range of odds that people backed this at today. I backed it at 10 on Betfair, some of you got 11/1 with bookmakers, a few got 11-14 on Betfair, Dave got 16 on Betfair and Andrew got 17 on Betfair which was the peak I think!

Clearly, I made a bit of a mess of it and I’ve missed out on a couple of points of profit today. I can’t afford to do this very often as it will eat away at my ‘edge’ but I won’t complain too much about today’s profit.

A quick comment on the second race. As I said above, my selection ran a poor race. This wasn’t down to the ground as it goes on soft ground, so it ran way below form. At 9/2 at the off, the value was probably gone but I doubt anyone backed at this price as it opened on course at 7, so everyone got a bit of value and as long as we remember this, we should be happy with today’s effort.

As a side note to the second race, the winner was beaten by Shesha Bear last time which was the 13/2 winner I tipped before my holiday. The second that day (Gracechurch) has also finished second since, so the form looks rock solid. Shesha Bear is declared to run tomorrow again…..Also, I see Franksalot (tipped yesterday) is also going tomorrow….very interesting!

I’ve had a look at tomorrow’s races already and it looks a nightmare. I’m either going to put up no horses and have a rest day or put up 3/4 very speculative horses for 0.5 points win on each to give us some interest. Obviously, I need to be disciplined and I don’t want to fritter away some of our hard earned profits but I’ll see what oddschecker says tomorrow morning.

8 points profit after day 2 is a decent start from only 4 selections so far, so it gets the ball rolling now. Let’s hope we can keep it going throughout the remainder of the month…..

9 comments:

Will said...

Hi

I was pleased with today's win, even at £2 a point!

Cheers

Will

Anonymous said...

thanks mate,lost time somehow had a fiver to win on first at 14.5 did not realise they wrere off , took a tenner profit then saw the price keep going right down to 1.100 aaaaaaaaghhhh

Anonymous said...

G,
I should point out that whilst I got 17, I also got 14, 12 & 10 !! The horse fitted perfectly into my 'drifter' system (as you know, I am well versed in the picking and backing of drifters !). Furthermore, I was sorely tempted by the 21 that it hit early IR - but as I was already in a bit deepr than I wanted, I 'greened up' instead (far too early, as is normally the case for me on these drifters).
A.

Anonymous said...

Hi Graeme,

Well done on yesterday's winners and it probably goes without saying I didn't get round to backing it. Having just read you email from yesterday I did find it strange you staked the same amounts when you were much keener on the first one.

I'm not sure if you mentioned in an earlier post but are you posting your p&l to sp or best morning price? I noticed you put up the sp for that last winner but you put up the best price in your email. I think somebody warned you about being honest, so it might be worth advising to best price or sp if you think it'll drift. Not that I'm accusing you of fiddling the figures but it's probably best to be clear about your rules now and I'd guess you don't want to fall in the game of smoke and mirrors most tipsters play around with,

Good luck, Nick.

Graeme Dand said...

Nick,

On my lunch, so I’ll quickly reply.

I take on board your point about the staking. Andrew also had a go! Being honest, I’m really new to this sort of staking, so I don’t know what constitutes a 2/3 point bet if I’m honest.

I’m hoping that I’ll spot one when it comes along but until then, 1 point will do!

Just so you know, I’m tracking both best price and SP points in a spreadsheet with every selection and how they run. You wouldn’t expect anything less from me!

In terms of best price, I’m in a quandary at the moment as I don’t have access to oddschecker and I’m relying on others. Every day I’ve sent an email out (today also!), I’ve had a note back saying that bigger is available.

This morning, I got two notes back in 10 minutes saying they had just got 17/1 (18) on Betfair. I only got 15 just before I issued the note!

Yesterday, some got 9/1 on that in the morning when I said 8/1 and I suppose I’ll run with that.

I don’t want to pull the wool obviously but I seem to be doing myself a disservice every morning by not quoting the best prices as I can’t see them!

This morning, I said 12/1 on that one and yet, when I checked Irish Racing straight after pressing click, it was 14/1 with Boylesports and that’s only updated every half an hour! That explains why I only got 15 and it reached 18 10 minutes later.

I agree it’s not perfect but in future, I can maybe rely on some readers to help me out with best prices. Also, I thought that was a potential drifter today as I said to Andrew it would reach 14/1 or 16/1 and therefore, I could have waited until it did before issuing the note. However, that’s just pulling the wool a bit as I’ve promised certain people to do it by 10.45am so they can access it.

I agree it’s not great mate but I’ll improve on this as the month goes on I hope. Most tipping services send out the tips between 11-12 as the market has settled down a bit. I’m doing it on the very first show I guess and it’s subject to significant change very quickly once bookmakers see what each other have priced up at.

Annoyingly, from what I gather, I got the worst odds possible yesterday and I guess the same has happened today to me! All this shows is that I’m new to this tipster game….

I’ll track Starting Price on blog for the moment but I’ll do both in the future I guess.

G

Anonymous said...

Graeme

so you are aware, I got 11/1 yesterday on your loser about 10 minutes after you issued a note saying that 7/1 was the best price. It was 11/1 with Ladbrokes and 9/1 with a few others. 7/1 was the lowest available price but I did see that it was avaliable at this with the bookmakers quoted on Irish Racing which was wrong. I think the non-runners meant that there were better prices available than what you thought.

Stan

Anonymous said...

Hi greame,

Just my opinion, but tipsters in general will always have more credibility in the long run if theyre profit or loss is calculated at sp.

Anonymous said...

Hi Graeme,

Quick reply lol, probaby says alot about how quickly your brain ticks over, which must be a big advantage over most punters.

Sp and Best price sounds like a good idea, I don't think you'll have a problem as long as your clear and don't backfit results. You've probably tried them but have you tried bookies.com and easyodds.com for odds comparison?

Good luck, especially as there won't be much point earning a taxable income in Scotland soon, Nick.

Graeme Dand said...

lol Nick.

Yeah, you can see why I want to earn extra income....

G