Wednesday, 24 September 2008

Not my month!

Daily Loss £30.00

Well done to Andrew by the way. He was in The Weekender today and it was quite an interesting read. Also managed to mention me which was nice of him! :)

OK, I publicly begged for a change of luck this month a few days ago on here and it breaks my heart to say it hasn’t happened….

I’m fed up waffling on here regarding results so I’ll get to the point. Last night, I sent Andrew the note below:

Mate,

Looked hard tonight and came up with a few interesting races. The big handicaps at Redcar are impossible to solve, so looking at Goodwood.

In the 4.55, revolves around Greylami and good old Hawaana. I got sent a note from _____ tonight saying he fancied Greylami a fair bit and I can see why. I saw it two starts back and should have won. Slight question mark about the attitude but recent runs have been great off this mark, so a solid bet.

I’ve no idea if Hawaana will stay this far but they’ll hold it up out the back and it will need a good pace. Same comment applies to Grey though, as both come late.

This will depend on price tomorrow. At 10/1 plus 1 point on Greylami. At 16/1 plus, 0.5 points on Hawaana. I won’t do both though, so it’s either or.

5.30 is a good race for me and the winner will come from the William’s Well form line. Three on the line are William, Shimoni and Mustajed. If I’m being strict, Shimoni should come out best but market will overestimate its chance tomorrow. Paddy have priced up Shimoni at 12/1 and William’s at 25/1 which is wrong.

Even if Shimoni has a little in hand, they can’t have much between them, so William’s is obvious. Mustajed holds William also but Shimoni has this one beat but market may overprice this.

I’ll have a point each-way on William’s at 20/1 or bigger. If it’s shorter, I’ll look at other two again

If you can send me the first shows for both races, I’ll write the rationale off the top of my head as I know the races inside out.

Views?

G

The first thing Andrew said to me today is that we should set up a thread on the forum next month so us two can discuss my suggested bets (as we currently do in emails) and that way, everyone can follow my thought process from start to end. He then added, “you know what will happen now, you’ll select the wrong horses today for these two races!” I replied “Even I can’t be that unlucky mate….”

I’ve been careful to not use the ‘luck’ word much this month as I’ve said before, my ‘edge’ is so large at this game, luck won’t come into it. Even with horrendously bad luck, I can’t lose in the long-run in my opinion.

However, some of the errors I’ve made this month have beggared belief and today falls into that category. However, I’m fed up taking the blame for this, so I’m going to say it’s not my month! lol

For those that don’t know, my selection for the first race was Hawaana. Greylami was very well backed and won well. Amazingly, this was the only horse I discussed in emails last night and today with a few of you and shock horror, it wins.

At the moment, anyone who’s been writing to me daily must be doing better than anyone who’s following my selections. I’ve barely tipped a winner all month and yet, in other races and in races where I haven’t selected a horse, I’m on fire!

One point I’ve made clear on here is the fact that I really think people can benefit from being on the same forum as me or chatting in a chat room to me. I don’t really know how much this is worth in monetary terms but at the moment, it’s worth 10 times my selections…..

One point Andrew made after the races today is that I need to really spend more time writing out my race analysis. Only mentioning one horse in my email today for the first race was criminal and to a degree, he is correct. However, if I think a horse is only worth 0.5 points win at the price, I’m not going to put 10 reasons to back the other horse as people will wonder why I’m backing my selection!

I think Andrew’s suggestion this morning will work well next month. As you all know, Andrew is proof reading my analysis and helping out with my staking this month. From next month, I’m happy for this to take place in an open manner on the forum at the new site. Obviously, I don’t want others posting on the same thread as I’m not wanting 10 views on whether to tip a horse or not (lol), but at least it will give everyone a chance to see my thought process.

For example, in the second race today, Shimoni has won by 5 lengths. Today, William’s was twice the price of this and therefore, 100 times out of 100, William’s was the best bet. Interestingly, William and Mustajed finished side by side. So, Shimoni has improved out of all recognition to win this race. I hold my hands up and I say I didn’t know that. However, who did?

That’s me down 16 points for the month and it’s laughable to be honest. Not going to do much for next month but that’s no bad thing. Last thing I want is people to subscribe who think I’m any good. They might have high expectations then! :)

If I get the site finished tonight, I’ll post something up later about it…..

5 comments:

bettingbiz said...

Graeme Don't worry mate your deficit is nothing really look at the odds range you use !!!! it could easily put you back in profit in one or two days.

You are picking value mate trust in that Graeme and you will be ok.
Greylami did look very strong today and as you know i really fancied it was dissapointed at the odds but as we did the market realised the fav was weaker than fc prices suggested.
You'll be back in full swing soon mate and by the way your site is very professional cheers betting biz

Graeme Dand said...

Greylami was a great call mate as I said. Two other of my readers fancied it today and so far this month, that's the second horse that 3 independant people have put up. First one was second behind my selection(at 9/1 I think) and that horse won today.

As I keep saying, sharing info like this is incredibly powerful. I favoured the other one but as I said last night, I could really see why Greylami was worth a bet.

I know someone backed both after I said I thought Greylami was a decent bet (he fancied it too), so I know this day is again another poor day but I'm not doing much wrong IMO.

Cheers for site comment. Still a WIP tbh but getting there.

G

Steve said...

Another one of those days whittling it down but picking the wrong one of the two, only a matter of time before you pick the right two though.

I suggested a while back you should keep records of your next best as I'm sure they'd be showing a profit overall and you should consider dutching runners especially at the odds you're selecting and the frequency where you manage to whittle the race down to the winner and your pick :)

In all seriousness your edge is in form reading and you should include all your view of the runners within any emails and let your subscribers make their own choice based on your reading of the races form lines. Not saying you shouldn't tip one in a race as thats partly what people will be paying for but just to include your full assessment in any emails. I assume the recent emails have been shorter and less detailed due to time etc as the earlier ones will be well worth any subs to your subscribers.

Had a quick look at the site and it's looking good

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

As usual mate, you’ve hit it on the head. This month was meant to be an opportunity for me to provide a flavour of what I can do. Once I found there was some demand for it, I decided to ease off the written analysis and start working to get the website working.

However, just like I warned everyone at the start of the month regarding the selections and not really being sure if I’d do very good at this part of the game, I also said halfway through the month I was stopping writing out my full analysis.

As I’ve made clear, my method is to discount horses that can’t win and then try to work out the best value from the horses left. Even though I haven’t written a full analysis, the methodology hasn’t changed. If I decide to only discuss one horse in the email, all it means if I’ve decided to not write out my full thought process. This isn’t to blame for the poor run recently.

As you say, my USP and main skill is being nullified a great deal. I don’t want judged on the selections (even though some anonymous knob keeps doing that!). I ultimately want judged on the analysis. However, I couldn’t continue writing out the analysis this month and do other things for next month.

Next month, I will aim to write a full analysis wherever possible. This means that people who like betting at shorter odds can dutch my selections and stop the losing runs. I haven’t mentioned this on here yet but this month, for ‘short’ horses (4/1 or less), I’ve had 3 winners at 10/3,5/2,4/1 and a loser at 7/4 from 4 tips. These are at SP.

Without being Einstein, anyone who likes backing short bankers only needs to follow my short price selections and they can’t lose. However, this is down to the way I select horses. I’m only going to tip a short horse when it’s a near certainty and should probably be odds on. I’m not comfortable with short prices as I can’t judge the value correctly. I’ve admitted that lots of times on here.

Next month, the full analysis will be included where time allows and after the events of this month, I’m going to include my ‘rough’ notes on the forum, so I’m being as open as possible.

The only reason I’m down this month is that I’m about 1 from 30 with horses at an average price of 12/1 or so. I’ll send my results out for the full month later in the week and publish them on here. However, these losing runs happen. As someone said, you expect losing runs of 30 when you select horses at this sort of price, so people need to realise this. If people can’t realise this, then I really don’t want them to subscribe anyway!

Cheers for the comment.

G

Anonymous said...

Sorry G,
Would have commented on the blog sooner – but I’ve had a lot of press enquiries to deal with – LOL !
I think it was the week hosting your blog that really honed my journalistic skills ! I told the editor of the Racing Post Weekender that I ‘d be prepared to write a guest column any time she wants – I’m not sure that she’ll be knocking down my front door, but you never know ! (always good to have a different perspective on things)…
Hopefully the article will bring a few new readers your way – let them see what they’ve been missing for the past 9 months ! I think the idea of a ‘community’ is really good – as I said in the article, you and I have benefited immensely from exchanging views this year – and if others are able to derive similar benefit, so much the better !
A.