Daily Loss £30.00
Well done to Andrew by the way. He was in The Weekender today and it was quite an interesting read. Also managed to mention me which was nice of him! :)
OK, I publicly begged for a change of luck this month a few days ago on here and it breaks my heart to say it hasn’t happened….
I’m fed up waffling on here regarding results so I’ll get to the point. Last night, I sent Andrew the note below:
Looked hard tonight and came up with a few interesting races. The big handicaps at Redcar are impossible to solve, so looking at Goodwood.
In the 4.55, revolves around Greylami and good old Hawaana. I got sent a note from _____ tonight saying he fancied Greylami a fair bit and I can see why. I saw it two starts back and should have won. Slight question mark about the attitude but recent runs have been great off this mark, so a solid bet.
I’ve no idea if Hawaana will stay this far but they’ll hold it up out the back and it will need a good pace. Same comment applies to Grey though, as both come late.
This will depend on price tomorrow. At 10/1 plus 1 point on Greylami. At 16/1 plus, 0.5 points on Hawaana. I won’t do both though, so it’s either or.
5.30 is a good race for me and the winner will come from the William’s Well form line. Three on the line are William, Shimoni and Mustajed. If I’m being strict, Shimoni should come out best but market will overestimate its chance tomorrow. Paddy have priced up Shimoni at 12/1 and William’s at 25/1 which is wrong.
Even if Shimoni has a little in hand, they can’t have much between them, so William’s is obvious. Mustajed holds William also but Shimoni has this one beat but market may overprice this.
I’ll have a point each-way on William’s at 20/1 or bigger. If it’s shorter, I’ll look at other two again
If you can send me the first shows for both races, I’ll write the rationale off the top of my head as I know the races inside out.
The first thing Andrew said to me today is that we should set up a thread on the forum next month so us two can discuss my suggested bets (as we currently do in emails) and that way, everyone can follow my thought process from start to end. He then added, “you know what will happen now, you’ll select the wrong horses today for these two races!” I replied “Even I can’t be that unlucky mate….”
I’ve been careful to not use the ‘luck’ word much this month as I’ve said before, my ‘edge’ is so large at this game, luck won’t come into it. Even with horrendously bad luck, I can’t lose in the long-run in my opinion.
However, some of the errors I’ve made this month have beggared belief and today falls into that category. However, I’m fed up taking the blame for this, so I’m going to say it’s not my month! lol
For those that don’t know, my selection for the first race was Hawaana. Greylami was very well backed and won well. Amazingly, this was the only horse I discussed in emails last night and today with a few of you and shock horror, it wins.
At the moment, anyone who’s been writing to me daily must be doing better than anyone who’s following my selections. I’ve barely tipped a winner all month and yet, in other races and in races where I haven’t selected a horse, I’m on fire!
One point I’ve made clear on here is the fact that I really think people can benefit from being on the same forum as me or chatting in a chat room to me. I don’t really know how much this is worth in monetary terms but at the moment, it’s worth 10 times my selections…..
One point Andrew made after the races today is that I need to really spend more time writing out my race analysis. Only mentioning one horse in my email today for the first race was criminal and to a degree, he is correct. However, if I think a horse is only worth 0.5 points win at the price, I’m not going to put 10 reasons to back the other horse as people will wonder why I’m backing my selection!
I think Andrew’s suggestion this morning will work well next month. As you all know, Andrew is proof reading my analysis and helping out with my staking this month. From next month, I’m happy for this to take place in an open manner on the forum at the new site. Obviously, I don’t want others posting on the same thread as I’m not wanting 10 views on whether to tip a horse or not (lol), but at least it will give everyone a chance to see my thought process.
For example, in the second race today, Shimoni has won by 5 lengths. Today, William’s was twice the price of this and therefore, 100 times out of 100, William’s was the best bet. Interestingly, William and Mustajed finished side by side. So, Shimoni has improved out of all recognition to win this race. I hold my hands up and I say I didn’t know that. However, who did?
That’s me down 16 points for the month and it’s laughable to be honest. Not going to do much for next month but that’s no bad thing. Last thing I want is people to subscribe who think I’m any good. They might have high expectations then! :)
If I get the site finished tonight, I’ll post something up later about it…..