I really appreciate your feedback. If I had read it before writing tonight’s previous post, I would have mentioned it in the post. However, I think it deserves a post of its own.
Firstly, I don’t use the Betfair forum and never will. I’ve made that clear many times over the past 9 months and I stand by that. However, I have heard about some comments on there and being honest, it makes me cringe. As you know though, a lot of nonsense is written on the forum everyday and some of the comments about me may fall into that category.
I’m keeping track of all the selections and you will be issued with a spreadsheet which details all of the selections and how they have run. I’ll try to update it for the past couple of days tomorrow and either post it on here or send it out to everyone.
One point I’ve made many times on the blog and in emails is that I am not a ‘tipster’ and in no way am I an expert. Not really sure where you have got this impression from but it wasn’t from me I hope. I’m an average guy who works 9-5 who studies horse-racing form in his spare time to make some extra money from gambling.
Before starting this month, I made it clear to everyone on the distribution list and the blog that I recommend they watch the selections this month and not back them. Clearly, I’m not silly enough to believe that people are not following my selections but the intention of this month was purely to give a flavour of what I do to find selections. I did not tell anyone to back my selections.
Another point I have made clear many times on here and in emails is the fact that my method is based purely on finding value selections and in the long-run, this is my edge. In any day, week or month, I am liable to lose. Not only am I liable to lose regularly, with an average SP of over 10/1, I am going to experience the sort of losing runs that would give people nightmares. This needs to be factored in to any long-term staking plan.
However, in the long-run e.g. over 12 months or even 8 years of my short gambling career, I expect to make a profit. I wouldn’t have acquired this interest in horse-racing at the age of 26 if I was as poor at reading form as it appears this month!
As you say, I’m “probably a nice guy”. I like to think so. Importantly, I’m also a fairly intelligent guy and I’m not silly enough to try to pass myself off as some sort of ‘expert’ on horse-racing when I’m clearly not. I have been straight down the line with everyone from when I started this blog and that hasn’t changed in the past month.
“you are not the man” – Not really sure who said I was to be honest but maybe you wanted to believe that I was the answer you had been looking for. Clearly, I am not.
I disagree with your comment about picking one form line. It’s true that I look for the strongest form line in some races but I don’t start out by looking for a form line to read. I read each horse independently and then I may look at a form line if I feel it is the strongest in the race and may help me select the winner.
As you say, some of my horses have run appallingly bad this month. I have been honest about every horse on the blog and haven’t tried to cover this fact up. However, backing at average odds of 10/1 means that not every horse is going to run to form. If they did, I wouldn’t be writing a blog for a start!
If someone had pointed me towards my blog after hearing about ‘how good’ I was, surely it would have made sense to paper trial the selections for the remainder of the month since the selections were free. I would never have leaped in with both feet first and I feel bad for you that you have lost. However, I don’t feel I am to blame.
I don’t think you were necessarily wrong for following my selections. However, why you would bet so much on my selections when I’m not even betting much on them myself is slightly confusing for me. As I’ve said at the start of the month, I really didn’t know how good or bad I would do this month. I still don’t know that to be honest.
Thanks for wishing me luck. I can do with some! I also wish you luck in the future and I would be very wary of following someone who isn’t ‘an expert’ in the future on the back of a recommendation on the Betfair Forum.