Tuesday, 16 September 2008

Reply to Anonymous Comment and Feedback

Dear Anonymous,

I really appreciate your feedback. If I had read it before writing tonight’s previous post, I would have mentioned it in the post. However, I think it deserves a post of its own.

Firstly, I don’t use the Betfair forum and never will. I’ve made that clear many times over the past 9 months and I stand by that. However, I have heard about some comments on there and being honest, it makes me cringe. As you know though, a lot of nonsense is written on the forum everyday and some of the comments about me may fall into that category.

I’m keeping track of all the selections and you will be issued with a spreadsheet which details all of the selections and how they have run. I’ll try to update it for the past couple of days tomorrow and either post it on here or send it out to everyone.

One point I’ve made many times on the blog and in emails is that I am not a ‘tipster’ and in no way am I an expert. Not really sure where you have got this impression from but it wasn’t from me I hope. I’m an average guy who works 9-5 who studies horse-racing form in his spare time to make some extra money from gambling.

Before starting this month, I made it clear to everyone on the distribution list and the blog that I recommend they watch the selections this month and not back them. Clearly, I’m not silly enough to believe that people are not following my selections but the intention of this month was purely to give a flavour of what I do to find selections. I did not tell anyone to back my selections.

Another point I have made clear many times on here and in emails is the fact that my method is based purely on finding value selections and in the long-run, this is my edge. In any day, week or month, I am liable to lose. Not only am I liable to lose regularly, with an average SP of over 10/1, I am going to experience the sort of losing runs that would give people nightmares. This needs to be factored in to any long-term staking plan.

However, in the long-run e.g. over 12 months or even 8 years of my short gambling career, I expect to make a profit. I wouldn’t have acquired this interest in horse-racing at the age of 26 if I was as poor at reading form as it appears this month!

As you say, I’m “probably a nice guy”. I like to think so. Importantly, I’m also a fairly intelligent guy and I’m not silly enough to try to pass myself off as some sort of ‘expert’ on horse-racing when I’m clearly not. I have been straight down the line with everyone from when I started this blog and that hasn’t changed in the past month.

“you are not the man” – Not really sure who said I was to be honest but maybe you wanted to believe that I was the answer you had been looking for. Clearly, I am not.

I disagree with your comment about picking one form line. It’s true that I look for the strongest form line in some races but I don’t start out by looking for a form line to read. I read each horse independently and then I may look at a form line if I feel it is the strongest in the race and may help me select the winner.

As you say, some of my horses have run appallingly bad this month. I have been honest about every horse on the blog and haven’t tried to cover this fact up. However, backing at average odds of 10/1 means that not every horse is going to run to form. If they did, I wouldn’t be writing a blog for a start!

If someone had pointed me towards my blog after hearing about ‘how good’ I was, surely it would have made sense to paper trial the selections for the remainder of the month since the selections were free. I would never have leaped in with both feet first and I feel bad for you that you have lost. However, I don’t feel I am to blame.

I don’t think you were necessarily wrong for following my selections. However, why you would bet so much on my selections when I’m not even betting much on them myself is slightly confusing for me. As I’ve said at the start of the month, I really didn’t know how good or bad I would do this month. I still don’t know that to be honest.

Thanks for wishing me luck. I can do with some! I also wish you luck in the future and I would be very wary of following someone who isn’t ‘an expert’ in the future on the back of a recommendation on the Betfair Forum.

Graeme

11 comments:

leonthefixer said...

Mate - not seen you over at Alistair's chat room bar that one time. Was wonderingif you are finding anytime to trade still?

Not seen an update on the trading on the blog for a long time. Hope it is going well.

Best of luck with the tipping - hope you get some winners soon.

Also would be interested to see a post regarding the new Betfair Charges. Perhaps it is a good thing you are tipping losers or else you would perhaps soon be paying an extra 20% :)

All the best,

Leonthefixer

Anonymous said...

G,
As you know, I’ve been privy to your race analysis’ for almost 12 months now (a lot longer than most people on here).
Throughout that time you have consistently demonstrated a rare ability to read particular types of races. However – as I’m sure you’ll agree - you still have a number of flaws…
Whilst the tipping ‘experiment’ has greatly improved your discipline, with regard to the races you are selecting – you have still recommended one or two bets that you should probably have given a miss; your staking has also been inconsistent and this too has cost you. If you couple these 2 facts with some poor luck (which you have had over the past few days) you are highly likely to end up with a loss…
Whether your ‘margin’ is great enough to overcome these issues (the luck should even itself out over time) – I don’t know… However, what I do know is that you have sufficient determination to work to eradicate the issues I’ve high-lighted.
If you do that, and you keep the fundamentals the same, I have absolutely no doubt that over time you will show a healthy profit on your selections – I guess you’ll find out early next month, whether your other readers have the same belief as me…
A.

Steve said...

Graeme,

You honesty at times on here astounds me and I’m sure that comment can be attributable to all your readers. I can see how much this month is affecting you and as I’ve said before on here, I would have stopped the trial as soon as people started criticising you earlier this month.

You are where you are now and you need to deal with it. In terms of gambling, this month has been a bad one for you and it isn’t over yet and it could easily get worse as well as better, so don’t forget this.

As you know, I haven’t gambled on any of your selections as I’m merely a trader who trades in running to make my living but I have been trading your selections in running this month. I don’t want to piss anyone off anymore (I can see some are already annoyed) but so far, my profit is 34.5 points this month. I’ve already started thinking about the future and I think I can use your selections to make 50+ points a month no problem is we assume that this has been a poor month by your normal standards.

I don’t mind sharing my staking as I know some people will be dubious. I used £20 stakes for the first 6 days and I’ve used £40 stakes since then. I’m over £800 in profit now and I’m seeing this as a poor month for your selections.

Yesterday was a poor day for me as I only broke even on your selections. I lost three points on the first race and won back the three points on the second race. I’ve had three losing days this month on your selections in total.

As you already know but your readers aren’t aware, I’ve tried this strategy four or five times over the past year with various tipsters (I won’t embarrass them on here) and none have come close to matching your performance. I have capitalised on your race reading skills like no one else it appears and part of this will be down to greed by others.

By selecting a horse at 20 that trades at 1.5 and loses in a photo, punters on Betfair will bemoan their luck but they need to get real. If they can’t make money on Betfair by backing horses like this, they are going to lose no matter what you select. The reason that I make a living on Betfair is living off the greed of others and this seems to work better for your selections, which I’m still trying to get my head around as you know.

Gamblers are a different kettle of fish as they won’t be using Betfair to lay in running. However, by always getting the best odds available with bookmakers, they are creating their own edge and in time, this will see them in profit. In the last few days, your horses have started at nearly half the price you suggested and in the long-run, this can only lead to long-term profits for the gamblers.

Don’t beat yourself up over the anonymous comment. It was an embarrassing admission by someone that they had made a mistake with their staking and they clearly hadn’t understood how you select horses and the average price.

By doing a quick calculation, if you are selecting horses with an average odds of 10/1, I reckon you have a 5% chance of selecting 33 losers in a row. This needs to be factored into any staking plan that people use on your selections for gambling. Anyone with a brain cell who gambles can work this out and therefore, having a losing run of 10 will be very common on your selections.

If the anonymous Betfair guy is annoyed at anyone this month, it should be me and the few other traders who have made money from your selections. If he doesn’t have the capability on Betfair to make a profit from your selections, then I don’t see this as your fault.

He’s nearly a grand down and I’m nearly a grand up and he’s using a higher stake size than me. You don’t have the problem G, he has the problem mate. :)

Keep up the good work and your luck will turn soon I’m sure. If you don’t have a name for next month, what about “The moneymaker”

Steve

caramboo.com said...

Hey Graeme,

When we proofed your analyses and selections on The Handicap Forums in
early summer, you made over 60 points profit in two weeks. People were
declaring you as God and no-one had seen anything like it. You then went
on to show that you can consistently do it over a 6 week spell before you
went back to trading :( (God knows why IMHO!)

A few months on, another proofing attempt by you and you are having a
nightmare. Anyone who makes 60 points in two weeks must be liable to lose
15+ points in two weeks when it goes wrong and you don't hit the winners.
I really don't see what the big issue is with this month and as a few have
said, in the long-term, you won't have a problem.

With regards to the anonymous poster who has blown 1K, I think the big problem
there is his staking plan. If I were introduced to someone as a really good tipster
I wouldn't take them at face value immediately. I'd play safe, paper-play for a period
of time (and not a mere 2 weeks ffs!) and only when I was confident would I risk
real money. It's no use trawling the internet for a freebie tipping service and
moaning when you enter during a series of losers. As we all know a string of
losing bets is a mathematical certainty, as is a series of winners. All we have to do
is keep our heads and as long as the bets are true value, profit is surely not far
away.

I recall a time when you were asking for people to come and join the Handicap
Forums, you were on fire yet we were suprised that hardly anyone followed you.
If the anonymous commenter had been following you from then he'd still be very much
in profit.

Don't feel bad because someone has read a comment on the BF Forum and
thought that you were the answer to all his problems. He's obviously
feels really daft and so he should. You gave everyone a free trial with
no obligation to try you out and he has tried to abuse that by cashing in
on a free month of tips.

lol @ 'I'm no expert'. What was your name on The Handicap
Fourm......Handicap King! LMAO................

You need to get back to being the Handicap King mate!

Of course, you know I'm hot on your heels anyway. Keep sharp coz I'm after
that crown!

Knocker

Graeme Dand said...

Leon,

Cheers for the comment.

I’m not sure how superhuman you think I am mate but when I work from 9-5 (in a different town!) and study form at night, write emails, write blog posts, answer emails, answer comments and work on my website ideas for next month each night, and manage to live a fairly normal life with my g/f, where would I get the time to trade?

My mind is still buzzing with lots of ideas about trading though and how I can make money from that game but it has been put on hold for a month at least. Someone has shown me very clearly this month that it’s very possible for me to use trading IR to make a regular low risk income and I may end up giving that a chance at some point.

If I can find 5 horses a day that I can back and lay at half IR and my strike rate is 75%+ at getting them to trade at half or less, this is quite a substantial edge. For the size of stakes that I use, I’d have no issues and it doesn’t take a genius to see how someone can use my knowledge (me!) to earn a decent income that is low risk.

I’ve deliberately dodged the 20% issue mate as I didn’t want to follow the rest of the flock. I haven’t even given it much thought and I’d probably just switch to using bookmakers if I was gambling and winning.

I’ve read a few goods posts on the issue at Mark Iversen’s site and I’m looking forward to reading what Matt thinks at Punt.com but I really haven’t given it much thought myself. I’ll let these guys do the talking as they know more than me about trading……..

I’d like to pop by Ali’s chat room but it would probably be at 1am when I’ve finished the form and I’d be chatting to myself, so it’s difficult at the moment for me. When things get back to normal (if they ever do!), I’ll try to make some time to pop by.

G

Graeme Dand said...

A,

You know me fairly well now mate and we both know I’ve made errors this month. I didn’t know how to stake the horses at the beginning (I’m still working on this), I wasn’t sure whether I should select the more speculative ones or not (all these ones have run shit so far this month), I haven’t had much luck (River Falcon sums up that comment!) and lastly, I’ve struggled with time to do a full analysis at times and it’s cost me a few winners by not doing it (which I haven’t mentioned on here once!)

Saying all of that, the reason I didn’t even think about charging this month is because I wanted an opportunity to show people a sample of what I can do. Admittedly, all the selections recently haven’t run great but as I’ve said many times before and as you know only too well, the analysis is what I do best.

Trying to get from 4 likely winners to the winner is the main flaw with my tipping (always will be) but I have to believe that if I keep doing what I do, it will even itself out in the end and I’ll win easily.

I haven’t talked at all on the blog about some races where I selected a horse that run shit and yet the winner was one a list of 3 or 4 possible selections. This month was never meant to be about the selections although I know that I will be judged on these ultimately by some people and as last night showed, I have already been judged on the selections by someone.

You probably know more than anyone how hard I’ve worked (especially in the first week and a bit) and if I had continued at that pace I would have made myself sick of it. Staying up late two nights in a row to analyse 6 races in total and to have the races abandoned is difficult to take when you’re doing it as a favour to people.

I don’t know what will happen next month. Fuck, I don’t even know what will this week with the selections. I don’t want to think to far ahead and I need to get my head down and get analysing races again.

I haven’t seen anything this month that makes me think I can’t be any good at this. All I’ve shown myself and others is that I have lots to learn which is a fair reflection of where I’m at.

I still have the remainder of the month to show I can do better than I currently am…..

G

Graeme Dand said...

Steve,

Cheers for reminding me how bad it’s been mate! :( lol

I also wish I had stopped the trial as I might have saved someone a small fortune it appears…

Thanks for sharing the info. As people probably know by now, you asked me last month whether I thought a trader could make money from trading my selections IR. I said yes and I suggested you look to lay off at half IR on selections that race prominently and on hold up horses, ask for better odds to lay off at. On horses which are a massive price, go to town and lay off at various prices as when these run well, you can really milk a nice profit.

It’s a bit sickening for me personally to be honest as I’ve struggled all year to find a strategy on Betfair to allow me to make a regular low risk income and all of a sudden, it appears a strategy has been born and I’m not even using the damn thing.

A few months ago, Andrew and me discussed this sort of strategy and we both said we’d rather have 1 winner at 10/1 every 8 races than a small profit from lots of races. As you can imagine, we are both now wondering why we dismissed the idea so quickly and you can guess which trading strategy I want to try out on Betfair if the tipping goes down the tubes!

We have both discussed why this seems to work so well on my horses and I really believe it’s because of the analysis. Apart from the very speculative horses, every one of my horses will go on the ground, will be well handicapped, will travel well, will be well ridden etc. I’m so meticulous with my form analysis, I know the way my horse will run before it leaves the gates.

Unfortunately, for some unknown reason (I really don’t know why), lots of my horses have run well below form this month. However, even the ones who run below form travel well as they are usually very well handicapped and when people see well handicapped horses travelling well, they want to back them IR.

Therefore, I think you are managing to exploit my analysis and I know you are doing well.

Obviously, there are large limitations to what you do and stake size is obviously one. The higher the stake size, the better the horse needs to run for you to get matched IR and the ‘edge’ will be gone.

Also, if 5 people were trying to implement the same strategy, you’d cut each other’s throats and no one would be able to lay off.

I stand by my comment that in the long-run, the gamblers and traders should finish side by side. At the moment, you’re 50 points up which is a scary thought but anyone who has tracked the BF SP and prices IR can see why this is.

If I pick a front-running winner at 14/1, you end up with an Evs winner and we catch up 13 points on you in one race.

lol @ the name “moneymaker”. Are you trying to wind up the anonymous guy mate…..

G

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Knocker.

First comment on here for a while mate!

At the moment, The Handicap Forum seems like a distant memory and it all seemed so easy back then to pick winners every day with no pressure on me. How I’d love to get back to these days mate……

I felt like I had to give trading a go as I didn’t want to gamble and it’s a strange world that has led me to this place 4 months down the line where I’m gambling and trying to provide tips! lol

You probably raise one of the best points on the blog recently. Anyone who can win 60 points profit in 2 weeks is surely liable to lose a fair amount when it doesn’t go there way! That probably sums me up in one sentence…..

I’m not exactly sure what the anonymous guy was doing with the £1k as it does seem like he’s misunderstood me slightly and he maybe thought I’d be selecting 20/1 winners everyday but it isn’t quite as easy as this!

I laughed when I read the comment about people joining The Handicap Forum as it’s so true. I think people maybe thought I was winding them up on the blog at the time but it’s a shame we didn’t have more members. It would have been a lot of fun and very profitable for everyone I guess!

I did feel a little bit bad saying I’m no expert after calling myself the Handicap King on the forum but it was true back then! It’s still true to be honest, I’ve just displaced my crown for the time being…..

If I get any worse mate, I’ll be asking you to dust off the form book and start looking for selections for me…….lol

Cheers for the comment.

G

leonthefixer said...

Cheers for the reply mate - did you not hear they have added an extra hour to each day??? :)

That was what I thought, I assumed you were too busy with all the other stuff and fully understand, but thought I would ask just incase you were still finding time to trade.

All the best with the tipping I am sure you will hit that run of winners in no time!

Leonthefixer

markomar said...

"Firstly, I don’t use the Betfair forum and never will. I’ve made that clear many times over the past 9 months and I stand by that."

Well I personally hang a bit on the General Betting section I find it good for me. I`ve picked up valueble bits and pieces from it. Actually had Alan Potts himself reply to my thread yesterday in relation to his book. Needless to say I was awestruck. :O

I admit other sections of the forum are a jungle however. :)

Graeme Dand said...

Cheers Leon.

Markomar,

Andrew uses the forum a fair amount also and tells me that there are a lot of decent guys on there (guys like you I imagine!).

I've just never got into it and I hadn't even been on the forum before until earlier this month when Andrew and someone else pointed me towards a few comments that people had written about me.

I wasn't having a general dig at the BF Forum and I admit I'm maybe a bit too critical of it on here without really knowing much about it.

Apologies if I offended you mate, it wasn't intentional!

G