Still slightly embarrassing.....

Daily Profit £256.00

I think most people who read the blog and email me know me pretty well now and I’ll be 100% honest and say I take absolutely zero satisfaction from the fact that Sphinx won and I personally made enough to get in profit this month.

As the title states, I’ve embarrassed myself this month with the way that most horses have ran and picking a 5/2 winner doesn’t help the embarrassment to be honest. I said this to a couple of you today in emails but if Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure how I would have felt.

I’ve been doubting myself enough this month already and on my method of form reading, Sphinx was about as big a certainty as I can get. If Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure I would have believed it and I guess I would have maybe stopped the trial as I couldn’t go on selecting horses knowing that I had managed to get Sphinx beat.

As I’ve admitted on here, I have made a mess of the staking this month as I didn’t know how to value my horses as I’m not use to doing it. I said to one of you today, if I had a staking plan of 0-100, Sphinx was 100 and nothing had been past 10 this month on that scale. A few of you also wrote to ask me what I really thought of Sphinx and apart from saying it was a mortgage job, I tried to say it really should win easily.

I only had about £140 left in my Betfair account and I decided early today to have £100 on this. I ended up with odds of just below 4 after R4 and therefore, it was a nice profit for me. I lost £20 on my other one but it is a welcome win to be honest. If Sphinx had lost, I was £260 down on the month which would have meant I would have had to start playing with tiny stakes, so it’s a needed win that’s for sure!

I suggested a maximum 3 points at 7/2 but the SP was 5/2 so it’s a profit of 7.5 points from that bet at SP.

My other selection today was Burning Incense and I knew very early on from the commentary that it was well beaten. The low numbers dominated and add that to the list of things I have got wrong this month. From memory, I thought high was the place to be on heavy at Ayr but they had no chance today. I don’t think I’ve been the only caught one out by this today, so I won’t complain. 1 point loss from that bet.

On the day then, a profit of 6.5 points and it puts me 11 points down for the month. Clearly, this is still shit but if today had gone wrong, it would have been twice that, so I just need to hang on in there.

As usual, thanks for all the support and encouragement. I think half of my readers had their fingers crossed for Sphinx today. I’d personally like to thank Stan for his comment today as comments like that are like gold dust and it made my month. I had a chuckle to myself after Sphinx had won as Stan called me a Tipping God before he left for his holiday and on his first day back, I have a maximum bet winner!

I’m sure a few people are wishing they had taken a 2 week break and returned today…..lol

A few of you have kindly asked about next month and the business plan I referred to in an earlier post that I was going to be sharing. As you are probably aware, I’ve been working hard on the website when I haven’t been looking at form. I’ll try to issue an email about it this weekend if I get a chance but here’s a quick summary of my business plan for the subscription service:

My intention is to create a community on the website. I want to encourage people to start looking at form and get chatting with other form students about possible selections and winners. The website has a chat room and I’m hoping to include a forum also. My intention is to encourage subscribers to use the chat room as much as possible. I’ll be on hand as much as possible to talk about races and form etc.

The website will also contain all of my past analyses and race reviews. I’m also hoping to issue a weekly report which will have things like horses to follow (If you look back, you’ll see I said Sphinx would win wherever it ran next time!), an update on the week, any site updates, any general information etc.

As I said to you before, I want to create a website to match or beat any existing website that’s out there from other tipsters. I’m also keen on helping others learn to read form by discussing races with me and running any analysis past me. I’ll make some dedicated time in the chat room where I’ll be available to ask any questions regarding my methods or selections etc. As I’ve said before on here, I want to create a Rolls-Royce subscription service!

My intention isn’t to make substantial profits from running a tipster service. I want to help others win money either by following my analysis and selections or learning to do it themselves by me teaching them. However, for it to be worthwhile, I need to be able to cover any costs and cover my time for reading form as well as any time to help out others.

Even allowing for the fact that this month has been an absolute nightmare for me, I’m hoping that as many of my readers will follow me across to the website. I’ll ensure that you can sign up for a month at a time and therefore, the risk to anyone will be very small and you are not obliged to pay for any longer than you will want.

Here’s the smart bit…..

There are two places to position yourself in this market. You can go for the low-end of the market (£10-£50 a month) where you provide a selection and a small amount of analysis or you can go for the top-end of the market (£60-£200 a month) where you have the fancy website with the excellent analysis and selections. From research I’ve undertaken and from what I’ve been told, there isn’t much difference between the selections. The difference lies in the analysis, website and personal service that the better services supply their subscribers.

Clearly, I want to aim at the top end of the market in time and that’s where I think my analysis and selections will ultimately lie. However, if a start-up service started charging people £30 a month for a Rolls-Royce service, they wouldn’t buy it as they wouldn’t believe that someone could offer that service for such a low price.

The one advantage I have over a start-up tipster is the fact that my blog readers know what I can do and therefore, you don’t need to be suspicious regarding the pricing of the service. When I say I’m providing a Rolls-Royce service for a fraction of the price, you know I’m serious.

So, assuming that I get a high enough demand, I’d like to allow my current subscribers the opportunity to buy the service for a very cheap price. Assuming I get enough subscribers to cover my costs from my current subscription list, I’ll then ramp up the price for any newbies who want to join us at our site.

One thing I’ve found this month is that I don’t want people to come along next month if I do well (I’ll be on proofing sites) and think, wow, this guy is good and he’s really cheap. They then use me for cheap tips and back my selections with high stakes and moan when I hit a bad run. I can do without these types and if they can afford to play with big stakes, they can afford to pay top whack for quality analysis and selections.

So, that’s a quick overview. I know this is a little cheeky considering how bad this month has been but to help me with the pricing next month, it would be good to get an indication from people if they are interested in subscribing next month or not. I’d also appreciate any additional feedback (please use email) on my plans and whether you think I’m doing the right thing.

I’ve tried to incorporate as many things into the site as people suggested and I’m hoping that people may take a chance with me for a month at least to allow me to prove myself again since I haven’t done a great job this month!

I’m away to look at tomorrow’s racing now, so I’m hoping I’ve turned the corner!