Friday, 19 September 2008

Still slightly embarrassing.....

Daily Profit £256.00

I think most people who read the blog and email me know me pretty well now and I’ll be 100% honest and say I take absolutely zero satisfaction from the fact that Sphinx won and I personally made enough to get in profit this month.

As the title states, I’ve embarrassed myself this month with the way that most horses have ran and picking a 5/2 winner doesn’t help the embarrassment to be honest. I said this to a couple of you today in emails but if Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure how I would have felt.

I’ve been doubting myself enough this month already and on my method of form reading, Sphinx was about as big a certainty as I can get. If Sphinx had lost today, I’m not sure I would have believed it and I guess I would have maybe stopped the trial as I couldn’t go on selecting horses knowing that I had managed to get Sphinx beat.

As I’ve admitted on here, I have made a mess of the staking this month as I didn’t know how to value my horses as I’m not use to doing it. I said to one of you today, if I had a staking plan of 0-100, Sphinx was 100 and nothing had been past 10 this month on that scale. A few of you also wrote to ask me what I really thought of Sphinx and apart from saying it was a mortgage job, I tried to say it really should win easily.

I only had about £140 left in my Betfair account and I decided early today to have £100 on this. I ended up with odds of just below 4 after R4 and therefore, it was a nice profit for me. I lost £20 on my other one but it is a welcome win to be honest. If Sphinx had lost, I was £260 down on the month which would have meant I would have had to start playing with tiny stakes, so it’s a needed win that’s for sure!

I suggested a maximum 3 points at 7/2 but the SP was 5/2 so it’s a profit of 7.5 points from that bet at SP.

My other selection today was Burning Incense and I knew very early on from the commentary that it was well beaten. The low numbers dominated and add that to the list of things I have got wrong this month. From memory, I thought high was the place to be on heavy at Ayr but they had no chance today. I don’t think I’ve been the only caught one out by this today, so I won’t complain. 1 point loss from that bet.

On the day then, a profit of 6.5 points and it puts me 11 points down for the month. Clearly, this is still shit but if today had gone wrong, it would have been twice that, so I just need to hang on in there.

As usual, thanks for all the support and encouragement. I think half of my readers had their fingers crossed for Sphinx today. I’d personally like to thank Stan for his comment today as comments like that are like gold dust and it made my month. I had a chuckle to myself after Sphinx had won as Stan called me a Tipping God before he left for his holiday and on his first day back, I have a maximum bet winner!

I’m sure a few people are wishing they had taken a 2 week break and returned today…

A few of you have kindly asked about next month and the business plan I referred to in an earlier post that I was going to be sharing. As you are probably aware, I’ve been working hard on the website when I haven’t been looking at form. I’ll try to issue an email about it this weekend if I get a chance but here’s a quick summary of my business plan for the subscription service:

My intention is to create a community on the website. I want to encourage people to start looking at form and get chatting with other form students about possible selections and winners. The website has a chat room and I’m hoping to include a forum also. My intention is to encourage subscribers to use the chat room as much as possible. I’ll be on hand as much as possible to talk about races and form etc.

The website will also contain all of my past analyses and race reviews. I’m also hoping to issue a weekly report which will have things like horses to follow (If you look back, you’ll see I said Sphinx would win wherever it ran next time!), an update on the week, any site updates, any general information etc.

As I said to you before, I want to create a website to match or beat any existing website that’s out there from other tipsters. I’m also keen on helping others learn to read form by discussing races with me and running any analysis past me. I’ll make some dedicated time in the chat room where I’ll be available to ask any questions regarding my methods or selections etc. As I’ve said before on here, I want to create a Rolls-Royce subscription service!

My intention isn’t to make substantial profits from running a tipster service. I want to help others win money either by following my analysis and selections or learning to do it themselves by me teaching them. However, for it to be worthwhile, I need to be able to cover any costs and cover my time for reading form as well as any time to help out others.

Even allowing for the fact that this month has been an absolute nightmare for me, I’m hoping that as many of my readers will follow me across to the website. I’ll ensure that you can sign up for a month at a time and therefore, the risk to anyone will be very small and you are not obliged to pay for any longer than you will want.

Here’s the smart bit…..

There are two places to position yourself in this market. You can go for the low-end of the market (£10-£50 a month) where you provide a selection and a small amount of analysis or you can go for the top-end of the market (£60-£200 a month) where you have the fancy website with the excellent analysis and selections. From research I’ve undertaken and from what I’ve been told, there isn’t much difference between the selections. The difference lies in the analysis, website and personal service that the better services supply their subscribers.

Clearly, I want to aim at the top end of the market in time and that’s where I think my analysis and selections will ultimately lie. However, if a start-up service started charging people £30 a month for a Rolls-Royce service, they wouldn’t buy it as they wouldn’t believe that someone could offer that service for such a low price.

The one advantage I have over a start-up tipster is the fact that my blog readers know what I can do and therefore, you don’t need to be suspicious regarding the pricing of the service. When I say I’m providing a Rolls-Royce service for a fraction of the price, you know I’m serious.

So, assuming that I get a high enough demand, I’d like to allow my current subscribers the opportunity to buy the service for a very cheap price. Assuming I get enough subscribers to cover my costs from my current subscription list, I’ll then ramp up the price for any newbies who want to join us at our site.

One thing I’ve found this month is that I don’t want people to come along next month if I do well (I’ll be on proofing sites) and think, wow, this guy is good and he’s really cheap. They then use me for cheap tips and back my selections with high stakes and moan when I hit a bad run. I can do without these types and if they can afford to play with big stakes, they can afford to pay top whack for quality analysis and selections.

So, that’s a quick overview. I know this is a little cheeky considering how bad this month has been but to help me with the pricing next month, it would be good to get an indication from people if they are interested in subscribing next month or not. I’d also appreciate any additional feedback (please use email) on my plans and whether you think I’m doing the right thing.

I’ve tried to incorporate as many things into the site as people suggested and I’m hoping that people may take a chance with me for a month at least to allow me to prove myself again since I haven’t done a great job this month!

I’m away to look at tomorrow’s racing now, so I’m hoping I’ve turned the corner!


Anonymous said...

Pleased to see you're back in the winner's circle, my friend. And pleased for Stan too - glad he made the most of his winnings!
Haven't posted much on here, but thought I'd make my support for your service public.
Price and quality don't seem to be very closely related in the tipping services available (in my experience), but I would have thought a £50 a month price tag would attract enough subscribers & deter the time-wasters who want everything for nothing. Several services offer dual pricing with or without analysis - another thought.
Like several others, I've benefited from your analysis & help a lot already, so I'm in.
Best wishes,

bettingbiz said...

Hi Graeme,
I think you have grounds for charging afair amount for your service. I would never judge aservice on its price i would always judge on results and as you say we all know you well enough to know you do the business long term. Once you get up the racing index tables you will draw clients whatever you charge simple as that so i think you will do fine. Well done today you had the courage of your convictions and that is often the key when your back is against the wall.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi David.

Form finished for tomorrow!

Thanks for the support. If everyone picked up my form tips as quick as you mate, I wouldn't have many subscribers after a month as they wouldn't need me!

As I hinted at in the post, the price will be determined purely by the number of subscribers. The more subscribers I get from my subscription list, the cheaper it will be.

I'm hoping that £50 is a bit too much and I'd like to go a fair bit lower for the regulars but I need enough people to subscribe....

I hope you enjoy the game tomorrow. I'm sure you are due a win (just like I was today!).

Thanks again,


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Ben.

I'm hoping the proofing will bring in some more subscribers but as I said in the post, if I had a choice, I'd much rather have blog readers and decent guys who are on my list for this month than randoms who are looking for tips.

I'm not sure they would fit in to the community I want to create going forward!


Anonymous said...

I would be very worried by the number of members allowed - the more the cheaper is not the way to go imo ... a limited membership would be better at a higher price.

Even a handful of people trying to get on @ higher odds on BF can ruin a price.

Decide how much you want to want to earn - and calculate the highest amount you could charge to the lowest number of clients - people are prepared to pay for quality information and service.

You are moving from a free blog to a business - and you have to treat it like a business.

Good Luck with it - I will join.

Irish Jim

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Jim.

Very interesting comment. I agree that I need to price it in such a way as to not ruin any BF prices but tipsters who are a lot larger than me manage to cope with a much large subscription list.

I currently have a subscription list which I see as quite an exclusive club. However, I'd rather have 10 people than 5 people next month as if one of the 5 leaves, that means a 1/5 of the subscription fees are gone.

I think a few of you have maybe over-estimated how many subscribers I am aiming for. I don't have a large a list at the moment and I'm giving free analysis and selections!

As I've said, I'm going to price this on two levels. Everyone who is currently 'with' me will get an opportunity to subscribe at a much lower rate than 'newbies'. This will be like this for 3 months and then after that, it becomes a big of a freeforall depending on how I do! (I'll keep the loyalty discounting going though!)

Thanks for the support.

Once I get more feedback, I'll get an idea of the number of potential customers and it becomes a simple calculation of working out how much I need to cover my time divided by the customers.

Whatever happens, I'll provide the best value for money service available anywhere!


Steve said...

I've given you my thoughts on limiting numbers before Graeme and wouldn't recommend it. The markets on betfair, and elsewhere, are more than capable of taking any volume you wish to throw at it. The markets are always thin early on but come closer to the race they'll always be enough swings in the market to accomadate bets.

How's the website coming along ? If you want any help with the backend etc just shout as I've done a few websites in my time for bands etc and write my bots in php so if you get stuck I'm happy to lend a helping hand.

GeorgeH said...

Hi Graeme,

Well done in keeping your head in front today. Hope you can crank up a few more winners before the end of the month as this will most certainly bump up the number of subscribers.

Cheers, GeorgeH

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

I agree regarding the membership. Also, I can't restrict the size of stakes that people play. Limiting the membership would make no difference.

The website is nearly complete mate. Most of the work has been carried out by a friend of mines, so it's looking good. The site is going to be very different to most other tipping sites but I didn't want to compete with them.

I intentionally wanted to create my own space in the market and go for a classier look.

I'm hoping the site will be finished by next weekend as I'm still waiting on Paypal for example to get set up. Once the site is ready, I'll direct everyone towards it and you can all have a nosy around!

Thanks for the offer of help. Much appreciated mate.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi George.

Today wasn't great mate. Annyoyed at myself today as I should have listened to Andrew for once!

I'll mention it tonight but Andrew said that I had got my staking wrong today and he was proved right. He said that Game Lad was easily the best bet and I should have maybe dropped two of the others and they both ran crap!

Another small loss on the day of 0.5 points to SP but in terms of what has passed this month, it's not a disaater!