Wednesday, 30 January 2008

The Experiment

I have agreed to reduce my hours at work to enable me to gamble in the afternoons. I want to try my hand at trading and Dutching in particular although I will not be doing what most other traders do on Betfair.

Many traders on Betfair use the speed of their software applications or internet connections to try to gain an advantage over other uses. Most traders trade the favourite in every race and are willing to put large sums of cash on things that are nearly certain to win in order to win a small return. Other traders try to trade very large sums of cash on very small movements in betting odds to generate their returns. Lots of traders will bet on any sport that is available to them i.e. racing, football, cricket, rugby, tennis etc.

For The Experiment, I will do things my way (as Frank once sang). Unlike most other traders and gamblers, I will use knowledge to generate my margins and returns. Instead of waiting to see what way the market moves before I trade, I will price up my own market and play on the horses which I think are a false price. I will bet on the horses which I think are wrongly priced and I won’t be afraid to take a position in the market if the formbook justifies it.

Unlike other traders, I will only specialise in horseracing for the course of The Experiment. Overall, I calculate that over 7,000 races in Britain will take place during the 12 months of The Experiment. Clearly, due to work commitments and holidays, I will not gamble on every race. However, I do reckon that I can bet on over 5,000 races over the 12 months.

My aim therefore is to win an average of £10 on every race. Overall, my target is to win £50,000 in 12 months from gambling. As you will see from my risk and capital financing page, I need to generate around £10,000 to break-even over the course of the 12 months……..

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