What do I believe are the key factors to enable me to succeed?
Below are my 12 commandments that I am going to stick to throughout the length of The Experiment:
Ø Knowledge – I need to remember that as long as I have did my homework and I believe in my findings, I should not be afraid to take a stance in the market different from everyone else. Knowledge is the one thing that most traders on Betfair lack, so as long as I stay true to my principals, I should do well.
Ø Discipline – I need to remain disciplined at all times. If I suffer a large win or loss, this should not impact on any of my decisions. This has been ‘drilled’ into me from an early age, so I believe I have the discipline to act rationally at all times.
Ø Research – I need to do my research before I start betting on any event. Never bet ‘blind’ on any race or market. Even spending 5 minutes on each race to view the form is better than betting blind. Most traders believe that they don’t need to do research as their trading skills can bail them out. Since I have no trading skills, I need to do my homework!
Ø Look for Value – Again, something that I have been taught from an early age. It doesn’t matter how many winners you pick, it only matters that you bet on the selection that offered the best value. This is true even if you believe that the horse which is bad value is still far more likely to win. In summary, bet on the selection which offers the best value, not the selection most likely to win.
Ø Time – Set aside enough time to be able to have a chance of being a success. Even though I intend doing this every afternoon only, I should look to do some preparation the previous evening.
Ø Low Risk Trades Only – Do not get involved in trades that are very high risk. For example, do not trade on very short price favourites to win events when they have nearly won anyway. Never bet on 1.01 selections on Betfair.
Ø Cut losses short, let winnings run – Again, something that I have learnt from studying Betfair over the last 12 months. When the market has gone against you, stop the loss immediately. Do not hope that it will turn in your favour. When you are with the market though, don’t look to bank the profits until you are sure the market will turn against you.
Ø Build profits gradually – The Experiment runs for 12 months. Do not try to exploit the profit opportunities until you are sure you have enough knowledge to do so fully. Keep stakes low at first until you gain experience and confidence.
Ø Learn from mistakes – If you do make any errors, learn from them and don’t beat yourself up too much. I am new to this game and hopefully, I aim to be in the game for the long-term.
Ø Keep detailed records – The only way to judge if The Experiment has been a success or not is to keep records of how I got on every day. The more detailed records, the more in-depth analysis that can be carried out in the future.
Ø Be Patient – I need to remember that I am not going to make large profits at first in this game. I need to learn how to play by the rules first and only once I have did this can I expect to make reasonable profits.
Ø Luck plays no part in my success – This is the first lesson that I was taught at 4 years old. If you fail to win at gambling, it has nothing to do with luck. It is more likely to do with the fact that you misunderstood the form or didn’t understand the market that you are betting on.
If I follow the above rules, I should have a real chance of being successful during The Experiment.