Wednesday, 30 January 2008

Results Tracking

How I plan to track the results of the experiment

One of the most important things to do regarding any experiment is to track the results of the experiment. Clearly, without tracking the results of an experiment, it is difficult to analyse the performance and whether the experiment was successful or not.

Every day, I intend to keep a detailed diary of every race that I bet on. This is especially true for when I am Dutching as I hope to be able to spot which type of races are the most successful races for Ducthing.

An example of the notes that I will keep for Ducthing are:

Clearly, the above data will allow me to analyse my results quite clearly. Incidentally, the main reason for capturing the race time is so that you have a record attached to each bit of data that can be exploited further by you if it is needed some time down the line. For example, I don’t capture the type of race (handicap, class etc.) but all of this can be obtained at a later date as long as you know the date and race time.

I will keep a daily log of the results in a separate spreadsheet but these can also be added together at a later date for further analysis to be undertaken.

I plan to use a similar method to track the performance of my trading on a daily basis. I will track the following data:

Again, the data above will allow me to analyse the performance of my trading on a race-by-race basis.

Daily Results

At the end of every day, I will calculate an overall profit and loss for each of the two types of betting (trading and gambling). Importantly, I will not look at or analyse the overall result too much as it is important that I think of these 2 strategies as independent of each other as much as possible.

Analysis of Daily Results

I hope to set up a blog on the internet where I will discuss my daily results and how I feel the day’s gambling has been. The main reason for doing this is simply so that I can look back at my notes when I get more experience to try to understand what I have learnt and where I have come from. I expect that there will be a very steep learning curve at the start of The Experiment and that I may have some very bad days at the start of The Experiment.

Another reason for keeping results is simply as a motivational tool to succeed. By making my results public, this will give me extra motivation to do well at times when I may not be doing so well as I don’t want to embarrass myself by failing to succeed at this.

No comments: