Daily Profit £63.44
Just a quick post as I’m away to have dinner. I traded 20 races this afternoon with 15 wins, 3 losses and 2 break-even races.
When I looked at the racing today, I wasn’t that keen on it so I was trading my riskfree bets in quite early and pre-race in many races. As it turned out, I selected 6 winners in 19 races and I’m a bit annoyed with myself as I calculate it cost me about £200 in missed profits.
Overall, that means I have made a profit of over £350 for the last 3 days of trading and I’m really happy with this. I’ve come a long way since Friday to be honest as I had zero confidence on Friday when I was trading. At the moment, I feel very confident again.
In the past 40 races I’ve traded, I’ve had 31 wins, 3 losses 6 break-even races with a profit of over £650. If that doesn’t give me some confidence, nothing will!
I’m back at work this week and I can probably do with a few days away from Betfair as I have really worked hard this weekend.
Thanks again for all the recent comments and I’ve taken on board everything that has been said. Hopefully I’ll start to reap the benefits going forward…..
Sunday, 13 July 2008
Friday, 11 July 2008
One Step at a Time!
Daily Win £21.56
A quick post as I am heading out tonight with friends. I traded 11 races in total, with 3 losses, 4 wins and 4 break-even.
After 4 races today, I was £23 down and had 3 losses in 4 races. You can imagine what I was thinking but I turned it around soon after.
I traded very well today and never got near any holes or big drifters. Annoyingly, I picked the easiest winner of the day (Ella at York) but I couldn’t trade it as it was heavily punted from 12 to 7 on Betfair. I won £10 on it but on antoher day, if I had got involved at a high enough price, it would have been a substantial win, so I was pleased I spotted it.
I’m trading tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, so it should be a fun day I hope.
Thanks again for all the recent comments and I’ve taken as much on board as mentally possible!
As the title states, this is hopefully me on my way back now but I won’t look any further ahead than tomorrow!
A quick post as I am heading out tonight with friends. I traded 11 races in total, with 3 losses, 4 wins and 4 break-even.
After 4 races today, I was £23 down and had 3 losses in 4 races. You can imagine what I was thinking but I turned it around soon after.
I traded very well today and never got near any holes or big drifters. Annoyingly, I picked the easiest winner of the day (Ella at York) but I couldn’t trade it as it was heavily punted from 12 to 7 on Betfair. I won £10 on it but on antoher day, if I had got involved at a high enough price, it would have been a substantial win, so I was pleased I spotted it.
I’m trading tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, so it should be a fun day I hope.
Thanks again for all the recent comments and I’ve taken as much on board as mentally possible!
As the title states, this is hopefully me on my way back now but I won’t look any further ahead than tomorrow!
Thursday, 10 July 2008
Statistics don't lie!
Daily Loss £211.50
I’m not going to explain in detail how I’ve managed to fritter away another large loss in 2 days but I’ve traded 5 races in the evenings, resulting in 4 losses and a break-even. I again got involved in a few drifters that I got involved in too early and in 2 races, I ended up with my whole bank on a horse which continued to drift.
As you’ll see from the P&L this month, I’m nearly £400 down this month which is an amazing turnaround from last month and previous months if I’m honest.
For those of you that like stats, if I ignore my trading at Alton Towers on BF Mobile, I’ve traded 24 races this month, resulting in 12 losses, 5 break-even and 7 wins. My average win has been £25 and average loss has been £48.
Without stating the obvious, having an average loss that is twice the average win and losing in more races than you win is only going to lead to a disaster. Statistics don’t lie!
Subsequently, I’ve done a lot of soul searching this week trying to understand how the hell I’ve managed to go from having a licence to print money it seemed to where I’m at now. It’s been quite hard for me but I think I’ve managed to get my head screwed on again and hopefully, I can kick on from here. Andrew has helped me greatly and without his guidance, I’m sure I’d be giving up now.
I’ve basically read over every blog post (fuck, I do write a lot I’ve noticed!) I’ve written in the past 2 months to try to understand what has happened to me. What have I changed, am I trading differently, have I lost my bottle, am I trading the wrong horses, am I reading the market indicators wrong etc.
I think my problem all goes to back to a horse called Tony James on Friday the 13th of June. I lost a substantial amount of money on this race (£286) and it has affected me in so many different ways. I didn’t realise it until now but after reading my blog posts and from looking at my P&L, I’m sure I can trace the problem back to this horse.
That was my first ever large loss on a trade and it was an absolute fluke. I was trading the horse, it did the splits on the way to the start, it drifted wildly and I cut my losses as soon as possible but it still cost me a fair amount.
My knee-jerk reaction was to decrease my trading bank, decrease my stakes, stop queuing up money to back horses (spoof money) and stop taking so many chances with trades. I effectively changed the way I trade without realising it!
Importantly, I continued to trade profitably but I was finding everything hard work all of a sudden. I was posting up comments saying my confidence was shattered and still posting up a £150 win! I think I got lucky by picking a few winners which papered over the cracks and this is clearly evident if you read some of my blog posts.
To change my trading strategy and try to hold different betting banks this week was also crazy as that’s part of the reason why I was doing so well. I’m not a conventional trader, I’ll never be able to trade systematic like most other traders, I’ll never be able to write down why I trade a horse and I’ll never be able to have a staking plan as it isn’t me! I’ve been reading other blogs and trying to become more systematic like these traders but it’s just not me and it never will be if I’m honest.
So, £400 down for the month and only a trading bank of £290, where do I go from here?
When I started out on The Experiment, I had no experience of Betfair, no strategy and yet I was willing to throw money at it to find a way to earn extra income. 5 months on, I’ve won £2k (which has been spent!) and I now have some experience and a strategy. However, I have a small trading bank.
From tomorrow, I’m transferring across £1,000 from my savings account to my Betfair account. Importantly, I’m putting a stop loss on myself at £300 loss as I don’t want to go below the £2k profit without discussing it with Denise. Basically, that £2k has been and gone now anyway as it helped us get on our feet in our new home and clear our overdrafts. It’s not like I’d be dipping into a fund. I would need to fund my trading bank with my overdraft!
So, from tomorrow, I’ll have a trading bank of £1,300 again for the first time in a while and let’s pray that I start to find some form from somewhere. If I do lose another £300 this month, I fancy a long break may be coming for The Experiment as I can’t go on losing money indefinitely at the moment as I don’t have the money to lose.
I’ve taken tomorrow off work to trade since Denise is at T in the Park, so I’ll trade tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening as well as Saturday afternoon. Obviously, my target is pure and simple…….
TO MAKE A PROFIT! Don’t care if it’s £10, just let me make a profit again!
I’m not going to explain in detail how I’ve managed to fritter away another large loss in 2 days but I’ve traded 5 races in the evenings, resulting in 4 losses and a break-even. I again got involved in a few drifters that I got involved in too early and in 2 races, I ended up with my whole bank on a horse which continued to drift.
As you’ll see from the P&L this month, I’m nearly £400 down this month which is an amazing turnaround from last month and previous months if I’m honest.
For those of you that like stats, if I ignore my trading at Alton Towers on BF Mobile, I’ve traded 24 races this month, resulting in 12 losses, 5 break-even and 7 wins. My average win has been £25 and average loss has been £48.
Without stating the obvious, having an average loss that is twice the average win and losing in more races than you win is only going to lead to a disaster. Statistics don’t lie!
Subsequently, I’ve done a lot of soul searching this week trying to understand how the hell I’ve managed to go from having a licence to print money it seemed to where I’m at now. It’s been quite hard for me but I think I’ve managed to get my head screwed on again and hopefully, I can kick on from here. Andrew has helped me greatly and without his guidance, I’m sure I’d be giving up now.
I’ve basically read over every blog post (fuck, I do write a lot I’ve noticed!) I’ve written in the past 2 months to try to understand what has happened to me. What have I changed, am I trading differently, have I lost my bottle, am I trading the wrong horses, am I reading the market indicators wrong etc.
I think my problem all goes to back to a horse called Tony James on Friday the 13th of June. I lost a substantial amount of money on this race (£286) and it has affected me in so many different ways. I didn’t realise it until now but after reading my blog posts and from looking at my P&L, I’m sure I can trace the problem back to this horse.
That was my first ever large loss on a trade and it was an absolute fluke. I was trading the horse, it did the splits on the way to the start, it drifted wildly and I cut my losses as soon as possible but it still cost me a fair amount.
My knee-jerk reaction was to decrease my trading bank, decrease my stakes, stop queuing up money to back horses (spoof money) and stop taking so many chances with trades. I effectively changed the way I trade without realising it!
Importantly, I continued to trade profitably but I was finding everything hard work all of a sudden. I was posting up comments saying my confidence was shattered and still posting up a £150 win! I think I got lucky by picking a few winners which papered over the cracks and this is clearly evident if you read some of my blog posts.
To change my trading strategy and try to hold different betting banks this week was also crazy as that’s part of the reason why I was doing so well. I’m not a conventional trader, I’ll never be able to trade systematic like most other traders, I’ll never be able to write down why I trade a horse and I’ll never be able to have a staking plan as it isn’t me! I’ve been reading other blogs and trying to become more systematic like these traders but it’s just not me and it never will be if I’m honest.
So, £400 down for the month and only a trading bank of £290, where do I go from here?
When I started out on The Experiment, I had no experience of Betfair, no strategy and yet I was willing to throw money at it to find a way to earn extra income. 5 months on, I’ve won £2k (which has been spent!) and I now have some experience and a strategy. However, I have a small trading bank.
From tomorrow, I’m transferring across £1,000 from my savings account to my Betfair account. Importantly, I’m putting a stop loss on myself at £300 loss as I don’t want to go below the £2k profit without discussing it with Denise. Basically, that £2k has been and gone now anyway as it helped us get on our feet in our new home and clear our overdrafts. It’s not like I’d be dipping into a fund. I would need to fund my trading bank with my overdraft!
So, from tomorrow, I’ll have a trading bank of £1,300 again for the first time in a while and let’s pray that I start to find some form from somewhere. If I do lose another £300 this month, I fancy a long break may be coming for The Experiment as I can’t go on losing money indefinitely at the moment as I don’t have the money to lose.
I’ve taken tomorrow off work to trade since Denise is at T in the Park, so I’ll trade tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening as well as Saturday afternoon. Obviously, my target is pure and simple…….
TO MAKE A PROFIT! Don’t care if it’s £10, just let me make a profit again!
Monday, 7 July 2008
A long post!
Before I start this post, I’d like to warn you that it could be a long post! I’ve written some long posts before on here but I’ve got quite a lot to say today, so apologies before I get started. Take a deep breath…..
Firstly, I’ve just caught up with all of the nice comments to Saturday’s post. Having re-read Saturday’s post, I’m conscious that I maybe came across like a bit of a ‘spoilt brat!’ One thing I’ve learnt about writing a blog is that posting up straight after a heavy loss is never the brightest thing to do but at least you get to see my initial reaction which is sometimes entertaining!
Having read all the comments, I can safely say that I agree with nearly every comment. I’ll reply to each comment on the post but I just wanted to say thanks. I’ve been having a quick look at my site stats recently and I’ve noticed that my blog is being read by about 100 unique readers every day at the moment. When I started my blog, I didn’t think anyone would be interested in it to be honest but I’m finding it is a very useful tool for me to share my thoughts and get ideas of how to improve my trading.
OK, lets deal with Saturday and what happened. On Saturday night when I wrote the post, I couldn’t really understand what had happened if I’m honest. I knew I lost my discipline and I knew I traded like an idiot but even still, that was one hell of a bad loss.
On reflection, it’s very easy to see why I lost so much from trading. As regular readers know, I’ve developed a strategy that works very well for handicaps. Just to reiterate, I look at the form of the race, find the most likely winner and then trade that horse as if it is a world beater. I back it at what I think is a value price and lay off before the off for a riskfree bet. If it continues to drift before the off, I continue to back and if it doesn’t shorten before the off, I’ll lay a large chunk of the exposure off and take a manageable sum in running.
The only way I can lose with this strategy is when I back drifters who run badly in the race. Due to my form knowledge, this very rarely happens and I usually always end up with a well backed horse that runs well in the race. I’ve been adopting this strategy now for a few months and it’s been serving me very well.
The drawback with this strategy though is that it takes time to assess the race and sometimes, it’s difficult to trade the horse before the race for a large riskfree bet if it is heavily backed. I always want to back at a value price and sometimes, if the horse is too short on Betfair, I won’t back it and then I get annoyed when it runs well.
I’ve now adopted this strategy to look at other races which are non-handicaps. Andrew is a bit of a specialist with non-handicaps and has adopted my strategy very well to work in these races. Again, we look at a race, decide which horse is likely to run well, assess which odds we would like to back at and then back it as if it is a world beater at our selected odds. As it drifts, we continue to back it and if it shortens before the race, we lay off for a riskfree bet. If it doesn’t shorten, we lay a large chunk of the exposure off pre-race and then we take a small sum in running.
Again, the only time we lose with this strategy is when we back drifters who run badly. I’m less confident with this strategy but Andrew is an expert at finding the right horse to trade in these races, so we both do well.
Recently, as you may have guessed by some of my posts, I’ve been experimenting with Betfair and Oddschecker. When I first started out on Betfair 5 months ago, I tried scalping and really struggled with it. I didn’t enjoy it and could understand the price movements and what was causing them.
However, I’ve spent the last month or so looking at Betfair (BF) and Oddschecker (OC) when I’ve been adopting my strategy with my handicappers. I think I have noticed a phenomenon whereby there is an initial over-reaction on BF to horses that drift on OC. Therefore, if you can enter the BF market and exit the BF market quickly, you can make some nice riskfree trades. From my analysis, it works for horses in the price range of 8-14 on BF as these sometimes drift too quickly on BF as they drift in the betting ring.
I think this over-reaction happens in many races but you need to be very, very careful. If BF doesn’t adjust quite quickly (within 3 minutes) to the overreaction caused by OC, you need to exit the trade immediately. In most cases, this will be a scratched trade. In a few cases though, you will need to exit Betfair for a small loss on the trade.
Once BF has adjusted to the correct equilibrium, you exit the trade and green up for a guaranteed win. I’ve been playing about with taking the riskfree bet but this is hopeless since you end up with a riskfree bet on a horse that is drifting and in most cases, doesn’t run that well in the race.
Obviously, the last strategy is a form of scalping but it is using OC as the weight of money indicator. I’ve found that if you can read the market correctly, you can get in and out quickly for fairly large price movements and large stakes no bother. I think this strategy takes an amazing amount of skill and being able to read the market correctly and the behaviour of other traders but I’ve been doing well thus far, so it is promising.
So, everyone is probably gasping to know how each strategy performed on Saturday then………
The first race I traded on Saturday was the 2.25. I looked at the form, found a horse who was OK handicapped and who would like the softened ground at Haydock. Also, the horse is a guaranteed front-runner in a race where there isn’t much pace. Latterly was the horse to trade.
It was trading at about 24. I then drifted to 30 before I got involved and started backing it. I think it may have reached 40 before shortening and settling somewhere in the mid 20s. I had a £400 riskfree bet on it at the off and as you would have seen from the picture below, the horse traded at 1.06 in running after being given an easy lead and just getting caught on the post. I won £62 on the race.
That was the only race I analysed during the day as I was short of time before racing to look at any more races. My little strategy (MLS) won me £62 in one race.
In the 3.20 race, Andrew had said to me to trade Stotsfold as it was too high a price. As usual, he was spot on and I had about an £900 riskfree bet on a horse which started at 50! The horse ran really well and travelled well through the race which allowed me to make £38 in running on it.
This was one of 3 races where Andrew told me to trade a horse and I broke-even on the other 2 races. Therefore, I won £38 from Andrew’s and Other Races (AOR).
Therefore, it would appear to be the case that I lost £400 from my Oddschecker (OC) strategy then. Well, not quite….
As I stated above, the key to this strategy is getting in and out of the market quickly. When the market turns against you, you need to exit the market. When I was trying to learn to scalp, my problem was always exiting trades. I always wanted to gamble too much and this usually led to me losing.
I’m not sure what happened to me on Saturday but I read one market wrong where I lost £23 from not exiting the market quickly enough for a scratched trade, and I suddenly lost my discipline. Not only did I lose my discipline, I then combined my little strategy (MLS) with my oddschecker strategy (OC) and it became (MLSOC) which became a total mess.
Basically, when I read the Oddschecker strategy wrong, instead of exiting the trade, I just followed my strategy for handicappers and started backing it as if defeat was out of the question. Race after race, I should have exited the trade but I thought no, just keep backing and it will shorten in price and I’ll get out OK.
After 4 races of losing about £320 in total, I gave up and learnt my lesson. I then did a wild £80 win on Gala Sunday with little intention of laying off. As it drifted anyway, this made it an easy decision to make it a pure gamble and the horse ran OK in 5th. On reflection, it was on bad ground and drawn wrongly, which meant it was never a horse to trade or bet on but MLS was well out of the window by now anyway, so my judgement and discipline was shot to pieces by then.
Overall, a £23 loss from my oddschecker strategy (OC). Not great but I know what I did wrong, so no big deal.
Importantly, a loss of £377 from a strategy that is not even a strategy makes me cringe thinking about it. Hence, a £377 loss from losing my discipline and adopting some sort of strategy that says when you have a losing trade, dig yourself an even bigger hole and when that goes against you, did an even bigger hole and so on. This will become known as MS (a mug’s strategy!)
Interestingly, some people may think that MLS is flawed due to the fact I keep digging holes but importantly, holes for horses that run well are OK. In some cases, digging yourself a hole for a well handicapped horse is no bad thing since it means you end up with a little more risk and subsequently, a little more return when it runs well.
Clearly, what happened on Saturday is that I lost some discipline and I stopped following a strategy that works due to having a small loss. The thing I struggle to get my head around is that even with my small loss, I was still £80 up on the day. I reacted badly to the loss though and it resulted in me losing my focus and discipline and when that happens to a trader, you become irrational and a loss soon follows in most cases.
Now that I know what went wrong, what does the future hold?
Firstly, I’ll now be trading with a bank of £500 from here. As my profit grows, my trading bank will grow again. I have thought about topping it up to £1,000 but as I’ve shown time and again, MLS produces a return of about 50%+ on races for my stake when my riskfree bet runs well, so I don’t need that large a bank to generate nice profits.
The key difference from the past though is that I’ll have 3 separate trading banks going forward. Obviously, I’ll only have one account but I’ll be splitting my bank into 3 notional amounts:
My Little Strategy (MLS) will start with £300.
Andrew and Other Races (AOR) will start with £100.
Oddschecker (OC) will start with £100.
I’ll be tracking these on the blog going forward and when I post up my profits (or losses), I’ll split out each component.
The cool thing about my strategy going forward is that I’ll effectively have a strategy for every flat horse race. When I have the time to look at a handicap, I’ll use MLS. When Andrew has had time to look at his races or if I’ve looked at any non-handicaps, I’ll use AOR. If I’m trading and haven’t had time to look at races beforehand, I’ll just use OC and play with reduced stakes.
When I started out on The Experiment, I expected it to take me 12 months to find a strategy that works for Betfair horse-racing markets. I think I have now found 3 strategies that work and now is the time to stop experimenting and start to put what I know into practice.
Obviously, I’m guessing that using a reduced trading bank will reduce my profits down a notch or two but as I keep saying, I’m in this for the long-haul. I’ve probably been spoilt in the first 5 months of trading whereby I have generated profits far greater than my knowledge or skill level. I don’t see too many blogs out there generating my profits after 5 months of experience of Betfair, so I’m probably ahead of the game.
I was sent an interesting article from Nat at the weekend concerning trading. One thing I’ve taken from it is that discipline can be learnt over time whereas instinct can’t. I think I have shown that I have an aptitude for trading and I’m sure I have the instinct to be a great trader. However, I still don’t have anywhere near the correct level of discipline and this is what I need to master from here on in.
I’ll have a few days break now and I have a big weekend of trading ahead, so I’m looking forward to it. Denise is off to T in The Park all weekend and I’ll be trading all day Friday as I have taken some time off work. This weekend will be the most time I’ve ever had for trading, so we’ll see how I do!
Firstly, I’ve just caught up with all of the nice comments to Saturday’s post. Having re-read Saturday’s post, I’m conscious that I maybe came across like a bit of a ‘spoilt brat!’ One thing I’ve learnt about writing a blog is that posting up straight after a heavy loss is never the brightest thing to do but at least you get to see my initial reaction which is sometimes entertaining!
Having read all the comments, I can safely say that I agree with nearly every comment. I’ll reply to each comment on the post but I just wanted to say thanks. I’ve been having a quick look at my site stats recently and I’ve noticed that my blog is being read by about 100 unique readers every day at the moment. When I started my blog, I didn’t think anyone would be interested in it to be honest but I’m finding it is a very useful tool for me to share my thoughts and get ideas of how to improve my trading.
OK, lets deal with Saturday and what happened. On Saturday night when I wrote the post, I couldn’t really understand what had happened if I’m honest. I knew I lost my discipline and I knew I traded like an idiot but even still, that was one hell of a bad loss.
On reflection, it’s very easy to see why I lost so much from trading. As regular readers know, I’ve developed a strategy that works very well for handicaps. Just to reiterate, I look at the form of the race, find the most likely winner and then trade that horse as if it is a world beater. I back it at what I think is a value price and lay off before the off for a riskfree bet. If it continues to drift before the off, I continue to back and if it doesn’t shorten before the off, I’ll lay a large chunk of the exposure off and take a manageable sum in running.
The only way I can lose with this strategy is when I back drifters who run badly in the race. Due to my form knowledge, this very rarely happens and I usually always end up with a well backed horse that runs well in the race. I’ve been adopting this strategy now for a few months and it’s been serving me very well.
The drawback with this strategy though is that it takes time to assess the race and sometimes, it’s difficult to trade the horse before the race for a large riskfree bet if it is heavily backed. I always want to back at a value price and sometimes, if the horse is too short on Betfair, I won’t back it and then I get annoyed when it runs well.
I’ve now adopted this strategy to look at other races which are non-handicaps. Andrew is a bit of a specialist with non-handicaps and has adopted my strategy very well to work in these races. Again, we look at a race, decide which horse is likely to run well, assess which odds we would like to back at and then back it as if it is a world beater at our selected odds. As it drifts, we continue to back it and if it shortens before the race, we lay off for a riskfree bet. If it doesn’t shorten, we lay a large chunk of the exposure off pre-race and then we take a small sum in running.
Again, the only time we lose with this strategy is when we back drifters who run badly. I’m less confident with this strategy but Andrew is an expert at finding the right horse to trade in these races, so we both do well.
Recently, as you may have guessed by some of my posts, I’ve been experimenting with Betfair and Oddschecker. When I first started out on Betfair 5 months ago, I tried scalping and really struggled with it. I didn’t enjoy it and could understand the price movements and what was causing them.
However, I’ve spent the last month or so looking at Betfair (BF) and Oddschecker (OC) when I’ve been adopting my strategy with my handicappers. I think I have noticed a phenomenon whereby there is an initial over-reaction on BF to horses that drift on OC. Therefore, if you can enter the BF market and exit the BF market quickly, you can make some nice riskfree trades. From my analysis, it works for horses in the price range of 8-14 on BF as these sometimes drift too quickly on BF as they drift in the betting ring.
I think this over-reaction happens in many races but you need to be very, very careful. If BF doesn’t adjust quite quickly (within 3 minutes) to the overreaction caused by OC, you need to exit the trade immediately. In most cases, this will be a scratched trade. In a few cases though, you will need to exit Betfair for a small loss on the trade.
Once BF has adjusted to the correct equilibrium, you exit the trade and green up for a guaranteed win. I’ve been playing about with taking the riskfree bet but this is hopeless since you end up with a riskfree bet on a horse that is drifting and in most cases, doesn’t run that well in the race.
Obviously, the last strategy is a form of scalping but it is using OC as the weight of money indicator. I’ve found that if you can read the market correctly, you can get in and out quickly for fairly large price movements and large stakes no bother. I think this strategy takes an amazing amount of skill and being able to read the market correctly and the behaviour of other traders but I’ve been doing well thus far, so it is promising.
So, everyone is probably gasping to know how each strategy performed on Saturday then………
The first race I traded on Saturday was the 2.25. I looked at the form, found a horse who was OK handicapped and who would like the softened ground at Haydock. Also, the horse is a guaranteed front-runner in a race where there isn’t much pace. Latterly was the horse to trade.
It was trading at about 24. I then drifted to 30 before I got involved and started backing it. I think it may have reached 40 before shortening and settling somewhere in the mid 20s. I had a £400 riskfree bet on it at the off and as you would have seen from the picture below, the horse traded at 1.06 in running after being given an easy lead and just getting caught on the post. I won £62 on the race.
That was the only race I analysed during the day as I was short of time before racing to look at any more races. My little strategy (MLS) won me £62 in one race.
In the 3.20 race, Andrew had said to me to trade Stotsfold as it was too high a price. As usual, he was spot on and I had about an £900 riskfree bet on a horse which started at 50! The horse ran really well and travelled well through the race which allowed me to make £38 in running on it.
This was one of 3 races where Andrew told me to trade a horse and I broke-even on the other 2 races. Therefore, I won £38 from Andrew’s and Other Races (AOR).
Therefore, it would appear to be the case that I lost £400 from my Oddschecker (OC) strategy then. Well, not quite….
As I stated above, the key to this strategy is getting in and out of the market quickly. When the market turns against you, you need to exit the market. When I was trying to learn to scalp, my problem was always exiting trades. I always wanted to gamble too much and this usually led to me losing.
I’m not sure what happened to me on Saturday but I read one market wrong where I lost £23 from not exiting the market quickly enough for a scratched trade, and I suddenly lost my discipline. Not only did I lose my discipline, I then combined my little strategy (MLS) with my oddschecker strategy (OC) and it became (MLSOC) which became a total mess.
Basically, when I read the Oddschecker strategy wrong, instead of exiting the trade, I just followed my strategy for handicappers and started backing it as if defeat was out of the question. Race after race, I should have exited the trade but I thought no, just keep backing and it will shorten in price and I’ll get out OK.
After 4 races of losing about £320 in total, I gave up and learnt my lesson. I then did a wild £80 win on Gala Sunday with little intention of laying off. As it drifted anyway, this made it an easy decision to make it a pure gamble and the horse ran OK in 5th. On reflection, it was on bad ground and drawn wrongly, which meant it was never a horse to trade or bet on but MLS was well out of the window by now anyway, so my judgement and discipline was shot to pieces by then.
Overall, a £23 loss from my oddschecker strategy (OC). Not great but I know what I did wrong, so no big deal.
Importantly, a loss of £377 from a strategy that is not even a strategy makes me cringe thinking about it. Hence, a £377 loss from losing my discipline and adopting some sort of strategy that says when you have a losing trade, dig yourself an even bigger hole and when that goes against you, did an even bigger hole and so on. This will become known as MS (a mug’s strategy!)
Interestingly, some people may think that MLS is flawed due to the fact I keep digging holes but importantly, holes for horses that run well are OK. In some cases, digging yourself a hole for a well handicapped horse is no bad thing since it means you end up with a little more risk and subsequently, a little more return when it runs well.
Clearly, what happened on Saturday is that I lost some discipline and I stopped following a strategy that works due to having a small loss. The thing I struggle to get my head around is that even with my small loss, I was still £80 up on the day. I reacted badly to the loss though and it resulted in me losing my focus and discipline and when that happens to a trader, you become irrational and a loss soon follows in most cases.
Now that I know what went wrong, what does the future hold?
Firstly, I’ll now be trading with a bank of £500 from here. As my profit grows, my trading bank will grow again. I have thought about topping it up to £1,000 but as I’ve shown time and again, MLS produces a return of about 50%+ on races for my stake when my riskfree bet runs well, so I don’t need that large a bank to generate nice profits.
The key difference from the past though is that I’ll have 3 separate trading banks going forward. Obviously, I’ll only have one account but I’ll be splitting my bank into 3 notional amounts:
My Little Strategy (MLS) will start with £300.
Andrew and Other Races (AOR) will start with £100.
Oddschecker (OC) will start with £100.
I’ll be tracking these on the blog going forward and when I post up my profits (or losses), I’ll split out each component.
The cool thing about my strategy going forward is that I’ll effectively have a strategy for every flat horse race. When I have the time to look at a handicap, I’ll use MLS. When Andrew has had time to look at his races or if I’ve looked at any non-handicaps, I’ll use AOR. If I’m trading and haven’t had time to look at races beforehand, I’ll just use OC and play with reduced stakes.
When I started out on The Experiment, I expected it to take me 12 months to find a strategy that works for Betfair horse-racing markets. I think I have now found 3 strategies that work and now is the time to stop experimenting and start to put what I know into practice.
Obviously, I’m guessing that using a reduced trading bank will reduce my profits down a notch or two but as I keep saying, I’m in this for the long-haul. I’ve probably been spoilt in the first 5 months of trading whereby I have generated profits far greater than my knowledge or skill level. I don’t see too many blogs out there generating my profits after 5 months of experience of Betfair, so I’m probably ahead of the game.
I was sent an interesting article from Nat at the weekend concerning trading. One thing I’ve taken from it is that discipline can be learnt over time whereas instinct can’t. I think I have shown that I have an aptitude for trading and I’m sure I have the instinct to be a great trader. However, I still don’t have anywhere near the correct level of discipline and this is what I need to master from here on in.
I’ll have a few days break now and I have a big weekend of trading ahead, so I’m looking forward to it. Denise is off to T in The Park all weekend and I’ll be trading all day Friday as I have taken some time off work. This weekend will be the most time I’ve ever had for trading, so we’ll see how I do!
Saturday, 5 July 2008
Like a pack of cards.....
Daily Loss £283.34
I replied to a comment made by Mike on my blog a few days ago and I said “ When my confidence went, it was like a pack of cards and everything became far too difficult”.
Well guess what? I lost my confidence this afternoon and it became car crash stuff to be honest. I took a bit of stick recently for decreasing my stakes after doing so well but as I keep telling everyone, I’m only a novice at this game and I know I’m still not that good a trader. I take no satisfaction from saying “I told you so!”
I think some people mistake my realism for some sort of arrogance but I don’t really give a shit to be honest. I know what I’m doing and when I’m a good trader, you’ll hear me shouting it from the rooftops. At the moment, I have 4 months experience and I’m still learning everyday. I’m not that great a trader and I’ve a long, long way to go before I get to where I want be. That’s not me putting my trading down, it’s the truth!
Part of me just wants to stop this post here but I’m going to finish it if it kills me!
I was £100 up after trading 3 races today. I had 2 wins and a rsikfree bet which ran badly.
Here are my 2 wins.


I replied to a comment made by Mike on my blog a few days ago and I said “ When my confidence went, it was like a pack of cards and everything became far too difficult”.
Well guess what? I lost my confidence this afternoon and it became car crash stuff to be honest. I took a bit of stick recently for decreasing my stakes after doing so well but as I keep telling everyone, I’m only a novice at this game and I know I’m still not that good a trader. I take no satisfaction from saying “I told you so!”
I think some people mistake my realism for some sort of arrogance but I don’t really give a shit to be honest. I know what I’m doing and when I’m a good trader, you’ll hear me shouting it from the rooftops. At the moment, I have 4 months experience and I’m still learning everyday. I’m not that great a trader and I’ve a long, long way to go before I get to where I want be. That’s not me putting my trading down, it’s the truth!
Part of me just wants to stop this post here but I’m going to finish it if it kills me!
I was £100 up after trading 3 races today. I had 2 wins and a rsikfree bet which ran badly.
Here are my 2 wins.


As you can see, I did really well but I don’t want to dwell too much on these wins.
My record for the rest of the day reads 8 races traded, 1 break-even and 7 losses. I suffered my first loss of £23 in my 5th race. I had £600 riskfree on a horse trading at 50 at the off. However, I had got involved trading another horse in the race and got in a bit of a mess. I lost £23 on it and I was hoping the other horse would run well and save me the loss but it didn’t happen.
So, £77 up for the day and having a good day again. The fun then started!
I backed a huge drifter, which went mental on Betfair and I lost £94 on the trade. That’s one hell of a bad trade to be honest and it affected me more than I realised. I ended up with my whole bank on the horse and it continued to drift, so I had to take the large loss.
I then got a riskfree bet on a horse which ran badly and I thought about calling it a day as Andrew was signing off MSN after having a nice profitable day trading the 2 horses I won on also.
I can’t exactly remember the words Andrew used but he said “Don’t chase the winnings you lost” and I replied “I’ve not got anything to chase as I’m not down too much yet!”.
I then traded 5 races in a row, losing on 5 trades, ending up with my full bank on a horse twice and getting myself in an awful mess as every horse I backed drifted wildly! When I say wildly, I mean wildly. I lost £90 on a sprinter at Haydock that went from 14 to 32 on Betfair. I kept backing and backing and by the time it reached 28, I had £600 win on it. I then had to lay off at 32+ and it became an absolute mess with red everywhere.
I really fancied Gala Sunday in a race at Beverly. It drifted badly and I couldn’t understand it apart from its bad draw. I was right about the draw and it had no chance on the outside of the field. This was another £80 loss as I decided to take some red in running but it never shortened since it was always wide. I could have saved myself £40 here but my discipline was well shot by then, so I wasn’t really caring to be honest.
I’m not in the mood to talk through every race as you can imagine but my trading got me in a mess everywhere and it’s back to the drawing board for me (again!).
This has put a dent in my trading bank again which is no bad thing to be honest. At the moment, my head is a bit messed up and I’m not planning on trading for a few days again.
Incidentally, I made a promise to myself and Denise that I’d never put any of my £2k profits I’ve withdrawn back into Betfair if I lose my trading bank. Hence, I’m left with a few hundred in my account now and that will mean a reduction in stakes again I’m sorry to say.
Not really sure what else to say. I feel sickened by today to be honest and I’ll no doubt reanalyse things and see where I went wrong. Maybe I got too relaxed after having 2 large wins at the start of the day. Not too sure at the moment what happened if I’m honest but I’m not going to let this get me down this weekend, so I’ll look at things on Monday.
I hope everyone else had a better day than me!
I’ll start to read my new trading books this week, so maybe that will help me understand what happened!
My record for the rest of the day reads 8 races traded, 1 break-even and 7 losses. I suffered my first loss of £23 in my 5th race. I had £600 riskfree on a horse trading at 50 at the off. However, I had got involved trading another horse in the race and got in a bit of a mess. I lost £23 on it and I was hoping the other horse would run well and save me the loss but it didn’t happen.
So, £77 up for the day and having a good day again. The fun then started!
I backed a huge drifter, which went mental on Betfair and I lost £94 on the trade. That’s one hell of a bad trade to be honest and it affected me more than I realised. I ended up with my whole bank on the horse and it continued to drift, so I had to take the large loss.
I then got a riskfree bet on a horse which ran badly and I thought about calling it a day as Andrew was signing off MSN after having a nice profitable day trading the 2 horses I won on also.
I can’t exactly remember the words Andrew used but he said “Don’t chase the winnings you lost” and I replied “I’ve not got anything to chase as I’m not down too much yet!”.
I then traded 5 races in a row, losing on 5 trades, ending up with my full bank on a horse twice and getting myself in an awful mess as every horse I backed drifted wildly! When I say wildly, I mean wildly. I lost £90 on a sprinter at Haydock that went from 14 to 32 on Betfair. I kept backing and backing and by the time it reached 28, I had £600 win on it. I then had to lay off at 32+ and it became an absolute mess with red everywhere.
I really fancied Gala Sunday in a race at Beverly. It drifted badly and I couldn’t understand it apart from its bad draw. I was right about the draw and it had no chance on the outside of the field. This was another £80 loss as I decided to take some red in running but it never shortened since it was always wide. I could have saved myself £40 here but my discipline was well shot by then, so I wasn’t really caring to be honest.
I’m not in the mood to talk through every race as you can imagine but my trading got me in a mess everywhere and it’s back to the drawing board for me (again!).
This has put a dent in my trading bank again which is no bad thing to be honest. At the moment, my head is a bit messed up and I’m not planning on trading for a few days again.
Incidentally, I made a promise to myself and Denise that I’d never put any of my £2k profits I’ve withdrawn back into Betfair if I lose my trading bank. Hence, I’m left with a few hundred in my account now and that will mean a reduction in stakes again I’m sorry to say.
Not really sure what else to say. I feel sickened by today to be honest and I’ll no doubt reanalyse things and see where I went wrong. Maybe I got too relaxed after having 2 large wins at the start of the day. Not too sure at the moment what happened if I’m honest but I’m not going to let this get me down this weekend, so I’ll look at things on Monday.
I hope everyone else had a better day than me!
I’ll start to read my new trading books this week, so maybe that will help me understand what happened!
Thursday, 3 July 2008
Better than it looks!
Daily Profit £64.89
On the face of it, tonight’s profit may not look that impressive to some readers. I’ve won much more at other times but I doubt I’ve traded much better.
The one thing I’ve realised recently is that for my trading strategy to work, I need to be fully confident. A few weeks ago when I was going through a bad patch, my confidence was low and I was trading the wrong horses in every race. Now, my confidence is as high as it has ever been and I’m making this game look easy!
Tonight, I didn’t have a single winner all night and being honest, most horses ran poorly. If I was greening up tonight, I would have won more than my profit above. With my strategy though, I need to take the good times with the bad times and when the bad times still create a nice profit, I can’t complain!
I traded for 2 hours and looked at 9 races. I had 5 profits, 2 losses and 2 break-even races.
I think the key to my success tonight was limiting my two losses. I read 2 races wrong and both horses drifted wildly. I managed to exit both trades for a small loss before the race had started and it made me feel great!
I only staked more than £100 in one race tonight and that was when I had my £5 loss, so it’s a return of about 65% on my trading bank which is cool.
If I can get through this month without any mishaps, I’ll have a decent size trading bank again and I’ll have my confidence fully restored. I’ll then be able to get back to using slightly higher stakes and we’ll see what happens from there. I don’t regret reducing my Betfair balance last month as I felt it was the right thing to do and so far, it hasn’t affected my profit levels by much, so I was probably right!
Thanks for all the kind comments recently. They are much appreciated.
On the kind advice of Nick and Matt, I’ve actually just purchased a couple of books. The books are, Fooled by Randomness and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. I’ll hopefully get some time to read them over the next few weeks.
Lastly, without turning this blog into the 'Andrew Appreciation Society', Andrew has got off to a flying start this month and had another large win tonight thanks to picking out Downhiller and trading it all day for a massive riskfree bet. The horse won at 12/1, so it was a nice spot. We are both in great form at the moment and everything we pick is getting backed pre-race, so let’s hope it continues……

On the face of it, tonight’s profit may not look that impressive to some readers. I’ve won much more at other times but I doubt I’ve traded much better.
The one thing I’ve realised recently is that for my trading strategy to work, I need to be fully confident. A few weeks ago when I was going through a bad patch, my confidence was low and I was trading the wrong horses in every race. Now, my confidence is as high as it has ever been and I’m making this game look easy!
Tonight, I didn’t have a single winner all night and being honest, most horses ran poorly. If I was greening up tonight, I would have won more than my profit above. With my strategy though, I need to take the good times with the bad times and when the bad times still create a nice profit, I can’t complain!
I traded for 2 hours and looked at 9 races. I had 5 profits, 2 losses and 2 break-even races.
I think the key to my success tonight was limiting my two losses. I read 2 races wrong and both horses drifted wildly. I managed to exit both trades for a small loss before the race had started and it made me feel great!
I only staked more than £100 in one race tonight and that was when I had my £5 loss, so it’s a return of about 65% on my trading bank which is cool.
If I can get through this month without any mishaps, I’ll have a decent size trading bank again and I’ll have my confidence fully restored. I’ll then be able to get back to using slightly higher stakes and we’ll see what happens from there. I don’t regret reducing my Betfair balance last month as I felt it was the right thing to do and so far, it hasn’t affected my profit levels by much, so I was probably right!
Thanks for all the kind comments recently. They are much appreciated.
On the kind advice of Nick and Matt, I’ve actually just purchased a couple of books. The books are, Fooled by Randomness and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. I’ll hopefully get some time to read them over the next few weeks.
Lastly, without turning this blog into the 'Andrew Appreciation Society', Andrew has got off to a flying start this month and had another large win tonight thanks to picking out Downhiller and trading it all day for a massive riskfree bet. The horse won at 12/1, so it was a nice spot. We are both in great form at the moment and everything we pick is getting backed pre-race, so let’s hope it continues……

Wednesday, 2 July 2008
The Men With The Golden Touch
Daily Profit £54
A quick update on my exploits at Alton Towers. Before we set off, I had sent Andrew a note to say I was going to try to trade a few races on my Mobile on the journey there and back but I hadn’t factored in the continuous loss of signals that would occur on my Mobile!
I’m not sure if everyone is familiar with Betfair Mobile. I’ve only really used it for emergency trades or emergency bets when I’ve been at work but it’s not really a trading tool! Actually, it’s as far from a trading tool as you can imagine with refresh rates of 2 minutes and only showing best back/lay price on each horse, so I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who trades.
I decided to set my exposure to £30 in any race (and for the day!) and I was hoping to get involved in a few races to make the journey go a bit quicker. I got involved in 9 races on Tuesday and 2 races today on the way home. Most of the races were handicaps as this is where I’m most comfortable with my style of trading.
So how did I do?
Well, as you’ll see from the daily profit, I did great! I make that a return of 180% on my bank, so I can’t complain. I didn’t even suffer a loss and my P&L shows 2 wins and 9 break-evens.
I didn’t mean to but I think I have developed a brand new trading strategy for Betfair Mobile. Due to the fact I had no graphs, no idea of betting trends, no idea of bookmakers odds, I was basically trading blind with my hands tied behind my back. Throw in the fact that I was losing signal for a minute at times and the odds had moved dramatically in the meantime, you can see why I think I may have a Golden Touch!
I had a copy of the RP with me, so I wasn’t totally blind. I had the RP tissue and a form guide, so that’s all one needs is it not….. lol
In 9 races, my strategy was to find 3 horses at similar odds on BF and then look at their respective form. Decide which horse was the strongest and then assume that this would shorten as the other two would drift. Well, a new strategy has been born and I got it correct 9 times out of 9! 100% correct!
As it turns out, it’s not the most successful strategy for winning money as I couldn’t lay off in running and I didn’t fancy any of the horses to win, so I got 1 winner from 9 riskfree bets! This gave me a profit of £18. Beats playing games on my Mobile I suppose.
In the other 2 races, I fancied one horse and Andrew fancied one. Before I left work, Andrew had told me about Day Trip in the 4.00pm on Tuesday and said it was overpriced on Betfair. I took a look but didn’t really fancy it to be honest. Andrew had sent me a note to say that he had about £50 on it before I left work at odds of about 50, so I took note of the race and I went on the race at about 3.30pm on BF Mobile.
At 3.30pm, there was £20 available at 65 and I thought to myself, Andrew will be in trouble now on this one as he had backed at 50!
I snapped up the £20 at 65 and switched off Betfair Mobile as I was trying to conserve some battery on my phone. I logged back on at 3.55pm and the horse was trading at 42. I exited the bet at 45 average odds to give me £400 riskfree on it and I was pleased with that. I then decided that I’d try to leave a low lay in running but just as the market suspended for the off, I lost my signal and had to log back into BF Mobile. By the time I got in, the horse was trading at 6 and I was trying to lay off at 4 for £50 profit!
Another drawback of BF Mobile is the time it takes to place your bet in the market and it was trading at 1000 by the time I asked for a lay at 4! lol
I then checked the result to see it didn’t even finish in the first 3 in the race, so I can’t have many complaints.
Andrew was a bit more fortunate though and managed to get a monster riskfree bet on the horse and was close to laying £100 off in running at 2.6 but it only traded as low as 3.3. Overall, a great call by Andrew and a bit unlucky to not win even more. To win £70 profit though from a £100 trading stake is nice going by anyone’s standards. I’m not the only one with the Golden Touch!
My other win came at night on Tuesday evening when I really fancied Emperor’s Well to win. If I was in the house, this would have been close to a maximum trade for me. I had my maximum £30 on it on my phone and laid off for a riskfree bet of £36 and the horse won!
£54 profit for playing around on BF Mobile is nice work and the fact I didn’t have a losing race pleases me as it shows I’m picking the correct horses to trade again. A few weeks ago, every horse I backed seemed to drift but I’ve barely had a drifter for over a week now, so I’m back in some sort of form!
Saturday should be my next opportunity to trade.
A quick update on my exploits at Alton Towers. Before we set off, I had sent Andrew a note to say I was going to try to trade a few races on my Mobile on the journey there and back but I hadn’t factored in the continuous loss of signals that would occur on my Mobile!
I’m not sure if everyone is familiar with Betfair Mobile. I’ve only really used it for emergency trades or emergency bets when I’ve been at work but it’s not really a trading tool! Actually, it’s as far from a trading tool as you can imagine with refresh rates of 2 minutes and only showing best back/lay price on each horse, so I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who trades.
I decided to set my exposure to £30 in any race (and for the day!) and I was hoping to get involved in a few races to make the journey go a bit quicker. I got involved in 9 races on Tuesday and 2 races today on the way home. Most of the races were handicaps as this is where I’m most comfortable with my style of trading.
So how did I do?
Well, as you’ll see from the daily profit, I did great! I make that a return of 180% on my bank, so I can’t complain. I didn’t even suffer a loss and my P&L shows 2 wins and 9 break-evens.
I didn’t mean to but I think I have developed a brand new trading strategy for Betfair Mobile. Due to the fact I had no graphs, no idea of betting trends, no idea of bookmakers odds, I was basically trading blind with my hands tied behind my back. Throw in the fact that I was losing signal for a minute at times and the odds had moved dramatically in the meantime, you can see why I think I may have a Golden Touch!
I had a copy of the RP with me, so I wasn’t totally blind. I had the RP tissue and a form guide, so that’s all one needs is it not….. lol
In 9 races, my strategy was to find 3 horses at similar odds on BF and then look at their respective form. Decide which horse was the strongest and then assume that this would shorten as the other two would drift. Well, a new strategy has been born and I got it correct 9 times out of 9! 100% correct!
As it turns out, it’s not the most successful strategy for winning money as I couldn’t lay off in running and I didn’t fancy any of the horses to win, so I got 1 winner from 9 riskfree bets! This gave me a profit of £18. Beats playing games on my Mobile I suppose.
In the other 2 races, I fancied one horse and Andrew fancied one. Before I left work, Andrew had told me about Day Trip in the 4.00pm on Tuesday and said it was overpriced on Betfair. I took a look but didn’t really fancy it to be honest. Andrew had sent me a note to say that he had about £50 on it before I left work at odds of about 50, so I took note of the race and I went on the race at about 3.30pm on BF Mobile.
At 3.30pm, there was £20 available at 65 and I thought to myself, Andrew will be in trouble now on this one as he had backed at 50!
I snapped up the £20 at 65 and switched off Betfair Mobile as I was trying to conserve some battery on my phone. I logged back on at 3.55pm and the horse was trading at 42. I exited the bet at 45 average odds to give me £400 riskfree on it and I was pleased with that. I then decided that I’d try to leave a low lay in running but just as the market suspended for the off, I lost my signal and had to log back into BF Mobile. By the time I got in, the horse was trading at 6 and I was trying to lay off at 4 for £50 profit!
Another drawback of BF Mobile is the time it takes to place your bet in the market and it was trading at 1000 by the time I asked for a lay at 4! lol
I then checked the result to see it didn’t even finish in the first 3 in the race, so I can’t have many complaints.
Andrew was a bit more fortunate though and managed to get a monster riskfree bet on the horse and was close to laying £100 off in running at 2.6 but it only traded as low as 3.3. Overall, a great call by Andrew and a bit unlucky to not win even more. To win £70 profit though from a £100 trading stake is nice going by anyone’s standards. I’m not the only one with the Golden Touch!
My other win came at night on Tuesday evening when I really fancied Emperor’s Well to win. If I was in the house, this would have been close to a maximum trade for me. I had my maximum £30 on it on my phone and laid off for a riskfree bet of £36 and the horse won!
£54 profit for playing around on BF Mobile is nice work and the fact I didn’t have a losing race pleases me as it shows I’m picking the correct horses to trade again. A few weeks ago, every horse I backed seemed to drift but I’ve barely had a drifter for over a week now, so I’m back in some sort of form!
Saturday should be my next opportunity to trade.

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