Wednesday, 2 July 2008

The Men With The Golden Touch

Daily Profit £54

A quick update on my exploits at Alton Towers. Before we set off, I had sent Andrew a note to say I was going to try to trade a few races on my Mobile on the journey there and back but I hadn’t factored in the continuous loss of signals that would occur on my Mobile!

I’m not sure if everyone is familiar with Betfair Mobile. I’ve only really used it for emergency trades or emergency bets when I’ve been at work but it’s not really a trading tool! Actually, it’s as far from a trading tool as you can imagine with refresh rates of 2 minutes and only showing best back/lay price on each horse, so I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who trades.

I decided to set my exposure to £30 in any race (and for the day!) and I was hoping to get involved in a few races to make the journey go a bit quicker. I got involved in 9 races on Tuesday and 2 races today on the way home. Most of the races were handicaps as this is where I’m most comfortable with my style of trading.

So how did I do?

Well, as you’ll see from the daily profit, I did great! I make that a return of 180% on my bank, so I can’t complain. I didn’t even suffer a loss and my P&L shows 2 wins and 9 break-evens.

I didn’t mean to but I think I have developed a brand new trading strategy for Betfair Mobile. Due to the fact I had no graphs, no idea of betting trends, no idea of bookmakers odds, I was basically trading blind with my hands tied behind my back. Throw in the fact that I was losing signal for a minute at times and the odds had moved dramatically in the meantime, you can see why I think I may have a Golden Touch!

I had a copy of the RP with me, so I wasn’t totally blind. I had the RP tissue and a form guide, so that’s all one needs is it not….. lol

In 9 races, my strategy was to find 3 horses at similar odds on BF and then look at their respective form. Decide which horse was the strongest and then assume that this would shorten as the other two would drift. Well, a new strategy has been born and I got it correct 9 times out of 9! 100% correct!

As it turns out, it’s not the most successful strategy for winning money as I couldn’t lay off in running and I didn’t fancy any of the horses to win, so I got 1 winner from 9 riskfree bets! This gave me a profit of £18. Beats playing games on my Mobile I suppose.

In the other 2 races, I fancied one horse and Andrew fancied one. Before I left work, Andrew had told me about Day Trip in the 4.00pm on Tuesday and said it was overpriced on Betfair. I took a look but didn’t really fancy it to be honest. Andrew had sent me a note to say that he had about £50 on it before I left work at odds of about 50, so I took note of the race and I went on the race at about 3.30pm on BF Mobile.

At 3.30pm, there was £20 available at 65 and I thought to myself, Andrew will be in trouble now on this one as he had backed at 50!

I snapped up the £20 at 65 and switched off Betfair Mobile as I was trying to conserve some battery on my phone. I logged back on at 3.55pm and the horse was trading at 42. I exited the bet at 45 average odds to give me £400 riskfree on it and I was pleased with that. I then decided that I’d try to leave a low lay in running but just as the market suspended for the off, I lost my signal and had to log back into BF Mobile. By the time I got in, the horse was trading at 6 and I was trying to lay off at 4 for £50 profit!

Another drawback of BF Mobile is the time it takes to place your bet in the market and it was trading at 1000 by the time I asked for a lay at 4! lol

I then checked the result to see it didn’t even finish in the first 3 in the race, so I can’t have many complaints.

Andrew was a bit more fortunate though and managed to get a monster riskfree bet on the horse and was close to laying £100 off in running at 2.6 but it only traded as low as 3.3. Overall, a great call by Andrew and a bit unlucky to not win even more. To win £70 profit though from a £100 trading stake is nice going by anyone’s standards. I’m not the only one with the Golden Touch!

My other win came at night on Tuesday evening when I really fancied Emperor’s Well to win. If I was in the house, this would have been close to a maximum trade for me. I had my maximum £30 on it on my phone and laid off for a riskfree bet of £36 and the horse won!

£54 profit for playing around on BF Mobile is nice work and the fact I didn’t have a losing race pleases me as it shows I’m picking the correct horses to trade again. A few weeks ago, every horse I backed seemed to drift but I’ve barely had a drifter for over a week now, so I’m back in some sort of form!

Saturday should be my next opportunity to trade.


Iranian Giraffe said...

nicely done m8,

Nice to see your still making a tidy amount from very little money used.
I've been to busy myself in the evenings to get much trading done on the horses but had a few trades on the Tennis instead for a nice healthy profit of £160 in the last couple of days and unlike the horses I actually know a bit about tennis and which way the odds should go lol.
good to see you've got your highest total in a month, so you have a new target to beat now lol.
I've not had time to read your blog recently so only just caught up, Isn't it strange how you can have a few months of good results and then have a bad few days and then think that your doing it wrong and cant make it work etc and almost quit, I've seen many many blogs go this way so it's good to see that you have come through your bad patch and are back on track.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Mike.

Nice to hear about your tennis win. Well done!

I take on board your point about how quickly my confidence appeared to disappear when I was going through a bad spell. I think this is probably linked to my trading strategy and the fact I don’t use a systematic approach to trading. To be able to trade my way, I need to be confident in what I’m doing. When my confidence went, it was like a pack of cards and everything became far too difficult.

Looking back, I did overreact to it but if it wasn’t for the fact I wasn’t trading much, I could have lost a fair amount. In that night where I was £80 down and turned it in to a £100 profit, that £80 loss could have so easily have been £200 and I doubt I would have come back from there to be honest!

I appear to be back on the straight and narrow now and I’ve withdrawn over £2k of profit form Betfair in the past month, so I’m feeling good about the whole thing again!

Good luck with your future trading.


Iranian Giraffe said...

Hi Graeme,

I wasn't just talking about you losing confidence after a few losses, it happens to pretty much everyone trading it seems. I've a mate who trades a fair bit and has made over £1000 a month for the 6months he has been trading and has yet to have a losing month yet after a few losing trades on the sports his confidence is shot to pieces and takes him a while to get it back.