Daily Loss £184.62
This is proving to be a nightmare month right enough!
During this month, even though I’ve traded like a muppet at times and at times lost my discipline, I haven’t been too hard on myself. Well, that’s about to change as I traded like a fool in a race today and I’m really pi**ed off about it.
I never post my P&L when I lose as I don’t think it helps motivate me much but today is an exception. I traded very well today for the most part and that’s what really disappoints me the most.
Here’s my P&L:
Even though you can’t see it on here, I lost £100 in the first race today. I’m not too upset about this loss but I’ll take it away and think about how I could have traded the race differently.
I had a glance at the 5 day declerations for the races at Market Rasen today on Thursday. In the first race, a horse stood out at the foot of the handicap. Advancement was running off 10st 1lb with Timmy Murphy on board. For those that don’t quite understand what this meant, Timmy Murphy only had 1 ride today as he would have had to sweat to do that weight at this time of year. At the 5 day decs for this race, David Pipe had 5 entries but Murphy was down to ride this one. Even without looking at the form, this was a tip in itself.
When I saw the final decs for the race and I realised that Murphy only had one ride all day, it helped to convince me even more that the horse would run well. I spent 2 hours going through the race last night and basically, there were only 4 horses in the race that could get anywhere near Advancement. I thought it was a 5/2 chance at best, so I was amazed when I saw it priced up at 7 last night on Betfair. Not surprisingly, before I could get any reasonable money on it, it was trading at 5.
This morning, the horse was backed from 9/2 to 3/1 with every bookmaker and I made an early decision today to trade this to try to get as large a riskfree bet as possible.
Well, as the day went on, the market decided to disagree with me in a big way and the horse ended up drifting from 3.8 to 6.6. My first bet was £400 at 4.4 and it was downhill from there.
At the off, I had £100 at 1.5 on a horse which started at 6. Amazing really and I was proved right when the horse ran really well but came up against a better handicapped horse and finished 2nd. The horse traded at 2.5 in running but I was stuck with my £100 win. So, a £100 loss on the race. (Incidentally, that was one of the other 3 on the shortlist.)
Can people send me the answer on a postcard please of how you trade a horse that you think is the wrong price on Betfair……. I keep getting in arguments with the market and sometimes, even though I’m right like today, I still lose!
I then lost £10 on a trade and so I was £110 down for the day. I worked my ass off for the next 14 races after that and traded great. I had 7 wins and 7 losses and had won back £87 of my losses and was looking to break-even for the day.
Disaster then struck……(and I didn’t even lose a penny!)
I was trading Tusculum in the 4.45 race. I can’t even remember why I fancied this if I’m honest but I had it down on my list of horses to trade today. My first bet was £20 at 21 and it drifted to 25, so I laid £15 off at 25. There was £200 available to back at 24 and I thought to myself, should I take all of this?
Well, I stupidly decided to go for a quick pee and then return 2 minutes later. When I got back, the horse was trading at 19 and I asked for £200 at 20. I again had the opportunity to take £200+ at 19 but no, I ask for 20.
Well, it’s history now but anyone who saw the market will know what happened. The horse got backed at all rates from 20/1 to 5/1 and backed from 20 to 6 on Betfair.
I was left punching my desk in frustration shouting you fu**ing idiot. If I had taken the £200 at 24 and then headed for a pee, I’d be looking at a £2k plus riskfree bet or a £400 profit on the race. I ended up with £23 riskfree on it!
Incidentally, the thing I didn’t know at the time was that Tusculum is owned by Barney Curley and it appears a well laid plan went astray today. The horse finished tailed off and was the first horse beaten today. No doubt it will pop up at some point.
Well, not for the first time, missing this trade affected me and I then traded the next race like a bloody muppet. I was trading Markington and I didn’t even fancy it that much being honest. It was more of a speculative play and it proved very weak in the market.
However, due to what happened in the previous race, I traded this horse like it was a fu**ing world beater when I knew it wasn’t and I ended up redding up for a large loss pre-race on the field and a smallish green on Markington and it was the first horse beat, so a large loss of £144. I then lost my discipline and tried to bail myself out with a £20 win on my last fancy Tyranosauraus Rex in the 5.05 at Ripon at 20 on Betfair.
Due to my lack of discipline again and stupid stubbornness, I didn’t leave an in-running lay and it traded at less than 3 before finishing 2nd at 14/1. That again made me lose my head at myself as I could have won £50+ easily in running by laying off but I decided to gamble. What a fool…….
At this moment, I switched off the laptop and was really pi**ed off with myself. I’m still annoyed with myself now to be honest as up until missing that trade on that steamer, I was trading great and was nearly level for the day.
It’s also been an interesting day on the golf and I managed to catch the last hour’s play or so. I’m now £25 green on the field and I still have my £2k profit on Alex Norren. I really fancy him to make a charge tomorrow as he played great today but dropped 4 shots in his first 2 holes! If he hadn’t done that, he’d be sitting at the top.
I’ll update the golf profit tomorrow night once it’s finished.