On the face of it, tonight’s profit may not look that impressive to some readers. I’ve won much more at other times but I doubt I’ve traded much better.
The one thing I’ve realised recently is that for my trading strategy to work, I need to be fully confident. A few weeks ago when I was going through a bad patch, my confidence was low and I was trading the wrong horses in every race. Now, my confidence is as high as it has ever been and I’m making this game look easy!
Tonight, I didn’t have a single winner all night and being honest, most horses ran poorly. If I was greening up tonight, I would have won more than my profit above. With my strategy though, I need to take the good times with the bad times and when the bad times still create a nice profit, I can’t complain!
I traded for 2 hours and looked at 9 races. I had 5 profits, 2 losses and 2 break-even races.
I think the key to my success tonight was limiting my two losses. I read 2 races wrong and both horses drifted wildly. I managed to exit both trades for a small loss before the race had started and it made me feel great!
I only staked more than £100 in one race tonight and that was when I had my £5 loss, so it’s a return of about 65% on my trading bank which is cool.
If I can get through this month without any mishaps, I’ll have a decent size trading bank again and I’ll have my confidence fully restored. I’ll then be able to get back to using slightly higher stakes and we’ll see what happens from there. I don’t regret reducing my Betfair balance last month as I felt it was the right thing to do and so far, it hasn’t affected my profit levels by much, so I was probably right!
Thanks for all the kind comments recently. They are much appreciated.
On the kind advice of Nick and Matt, I’ve actually just purchased a couple of books. The books are, Fooled by Randomness and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. I’ll hopefully get some time to read them over the next few weeks.
Lastly, without turning this blog into the 'Andrew Appreciation Society', Andrew has got off to a flying start this month and had another large win tonight thanks to picking out Downhiller and trading it all day for a massive riskfree bet. The horse won at 12/1, so it was a nice spot. We are both in great form at the moment and everything we pick is getting backed pre-race, so let’s hope it continues……
6 comments:
Graeme,
I sometimes wish I could shake you and get you to understand how good you are doing. A return of 65% for an evenings work is amazing trading and I don’t quite think you understand how good you are doing. If you were using £500 stakes, assuming it didn’t affect your trading ability, you’d be looking at £325 profit for 2 hours of trading.
I traded yesterday for 18 races, winning12, scratching 4 and losing 2. I use a bank of £300 everyday and I aim for 1 tick profits. I made £32 in total and was pleased with my 4 hours work. My 2 losses yesterday totalled £42 compared to your £7 of losses.
I think you are close to turning some readers off with your continued put-downs concerning your trading as it’s starting to sound quite arrogant and annoying to me and probably to others.
Steve
mmmmm...thanks for the comment Steve.
Ouch!
Last week you commented you thought my trading strategy “seems a bit of guesswork to me and I’m not sure if it is sustainable in the longer term.”
Now you comment that "I’m arrogant and annoying"....
Without sounding rude, I’m not forcing you to read my blog mate.
Being honest, your point above about £500 stakes is nonsense as I’d never get £500 matched on the horses I’m backing at the times I’m backing. If I started asking for £500 stakes, I wouldn’t get anything matched and I’d shorten up the horse before I backed it, so it wouldn’t do me much good!
Not really sure what point you are tying to make regarding the races you traded and our losses. I’m pleased to see you made a profit and so what if it wasn’t as high as mines. It reads a bit like you are annoyed at me because I won more money than you in less time which is laughable!
“continued put-downs” – not sure where I keep putting my trading down. I admit I’m hard on myself at times but I said I traded very well last night!
“arrogant and annoying” – where? I think you are maybe misunderstanding my style of writing.
I’m a bit disapointed you feel this way as you’ve given me lots of worthwhile comments over the past few months. If you drop me an email with your thoughts, I’ll reply to you through that.
In conclusion, you need to remember that this is my blog after all. I can basically write anything I want on it and even if no one read the blog, I’d still find it worthwhile as it helps keep me focussed.
I hope you keep reading the blog and I’ll try my best to not be so annoying in future. NOT!!!!
Graeme
Hi Graeme,
I discovered your blog via Matt's site. I have read every post and i have to say i am most impressed with the little strategy you have carved out for yourself.
It reminds me of a post on a racing forum that i read in 04. It was actually the post that got me into trading in the first place!
I'll dig it out and send it too you.
Boy you dont half rack up the comments on your musings, never seen so many!!!(well maybe with the exception of Mark Iverson) So much um...'good advice' (tongue in cheek? well just a little)!
I just registered on your forum, but there does not seem to be a lot of action have you stopped using it?
Also i have a little idea on a variation of your strategy for another sport or two that i'd like to discuss with you.
Any way keep up the great work.
Nat
Hi Nat.
lol @ comments! I like to think I provoke reactions from people but I had my worst ever comment today, so maybe I go too far!
My little strategy…..It’s taken me 4 months to get to this stage to be honest and I’m still a novice but like yourself and others, I’m starting to fall in love with my little strategy!
I was instrumental in setting the handicap forum up and it was an ideal way to share some thoughts with a couple of guys. Unfortunately, we appeared to scare everyone away and 99% of the posts came form the three of us. Our group is now down to two (Andrew and me) and it works fine to be honest. We both have strong views on horse-racing in general and if we tried to share our ideas with others, I doubt we’d get very far!
We just use MSN and emails to share ideas and thoughts now and it works fine. We both struggle for time to trade and we both have different ideas on trading but we both use the same ‘little strategy’, so it’s nice to share ideas with someone who understands the way you trade.
With regards to adopting my strategy for other sports, please drop me an email. My email is on my profile.
I actually have a couple of different strategies on the go at the moment to be honest and I’m experimenting a great deal with Oddschecker and BF and how that relationship works. I’m also continuing with my form study on handicaps when I get the time to look at races in depth.
The dream would be to keep redefining my trading strategies so that I can use different strategies depending on the type of race and whether I can pick the winner or not. I’m hopeless at scalping, so I’m never looking at that again but as I’ve shown, there are other ways to win money on Betfair!
Look forward to receiving your email.
Graeme
Sorry Graeme it was not my intention to dismiss the amount of work or effort you have put in, When i referred to it as a 'little strategy' i was attempting to suggest that you have produced a priceless gem as opposed to a small achievement.
And way sooner than my good self, i ran a sports trading forum for about 2 and a half years before i could claim a similar level of success and absorbed every word of the 26,000 posts that were made on it. So i know how tough it can be! lol
Anyway i'm just about to send you an article written by the guy who introduced me to trading he was once the Director of Natwest Markets and was the Head of all non European trading.
He asked us all the following question...
'If you are reading this post some time after it was written its still worth giving it a go. If im still around i will answer.
So you have just arrived at the interview and we have not even exchanged pleasantries and I ask you what are 17/64ths as a decimal?
Last edited by Captaink on Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:48 am'
He asked anyone that was interested to e-mail the answer and to let him know how long it took to come up with it. My responce warranted the reply 'Sorry you have not quite nailed it and if you were to attempt a career in the city you are likely to fail.'
Sounds dissapointing, but when you read the article you will discover that was not such a bad response!! lol
Nat,
When I was quoting "my little strategy", I was using it as an affectionate term. I know you weren't trying to put it down in anyway!
One thing I'm realising about my style of writing mate is that it's easy to pick up what I'm saying and interpret it another way!
A few months ago, Andrew was even falling out with me about the way I write emails and how cocky I always am!
I'll have a look at your email soon!
Thanks,
Graeme
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