Tuesday, 26 February 2008

The Expertiment has started.....

I made the decision tonight to get the ball rolling with this project as I’m fed up waiting around. I’ve also decided to look to trade and gamble on other sports as well as horseracing. Obviously, this may prove a stroke of genius or may be a desperate attempt to make this project work, only time will tell.

I’ve a little bit of knowledge of golf which was built up from playing a fantasy golf game last year. Therefore, I’ve decided to play the USPGA golf win market every week.

I have 2 distinct strategies that I will use on weekly basis:

Ø I will lay Tiger Woods every week he plays. This is simply due to the fact that I think he represents poor value every time he plays.
Ø I will look to generate as many risk free bets as possible before the tournament starts. This is quite easy to do on outsiders in the golf markets. I am looking for one of my risk free bets to win over the next 52 weeks to generate me a profit.

Lastly, thanks for all the votes in my poll. Thinking back, I should have made the poll something like “do you think I will make a profit over the 12 months?” as it’s clear that confidence in my ability to make a profit is pretty low.

Just for information purposes, the final results of the poll are:

<£10k – 27 votes (73 %)
£10k - £20k – 7 votes (19%)
£20k - £30k – 1 vote (3%)
£30k + - 2 votes (5%)

I personally voted for £10k - £20k and nothing has happened yet to change my mind. I’m hoping that I can prove a few people wrong but time will tell!

I’ll try to post up the free bets I’ve generated for the golf (if any!) before the tournament starts.

I won’t start trading on the horseracing now until Monday next week, but I’m looking forward to it already……….


Cassini said...

Hello again. Be very careful laying Tiger Woods in PGA events. Since his resurgence in 2005, he has won 23 of 54 PGA events (42.6%) which is an incredibly impressive record in a sport such as golf. And his record in WGC events is even better. Of course, it depends on what price you lay him at whether or not you are getting value, but be careful. He's rather good!

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Graeme,

Cassini beat me too it!

Be very careful with opposing Tiger, I've got my fingers burned many times. What you need to remember is what the market will do, not necessarily what you think will be the overall outcome.

A couple of good shots and Tiger's price drops dramatically. The chances are you'll hit your stop loss and bail leaving yourself with a nasty red figure.

I'll say it again...be very careful.

All the best,


Cassini said...

Mark makes a good point when he says that knowing how the market will react is more important than the final outcome. I mentioned earlier that Tiger has a 42.6% record since 2005. If you take his record in PGA events since 2006, he's even more phenomenal, having won 17 of 33, (51.5%) so good luck finding value in laying him! I think the value is more likely to be in backing him although I understand that it's hard to back one player in a 100+ player event at anything close to evens. It seems to make no sense, but Tiger really is unique. But good luck and keep thinking of ideas. I really don't mean to be a spoiler.

Graeme Dand said...

Cheers for the advice. Much appreciated.

I agree that Tiger is likely to win 1 in 2 events but as long as I'm laying him at evens or just above, I should do OK. Clearly, I'm not going to get rich doing this but as long as I use a staking plan that recoups some of the earlier losses, I'll do ok.

The problem with staking plans is that you need to be aware of long losing runs. Now, I know Tiger is amazing, but he's something like 8 from 9 in his last 9 tournaments! That really is an amazing streak and he will win more titles this season, but as long as he loses now and again, I should do OK!

Also, there must be times when he gets off to a bad start and I can trade out for a profit. I'm sure Mark must know more about this than me as I've no experience of this but I'm just trying it out.

I enjoy experimenting......

Cassini said...

Nothing wrong with experimenting, but have you heard of paper trading? Or just invest small amounts. The way to test new ideas is not by using money that you can't afford to lose. Find a method that works for you, develop a staking plan that's right for you and hit it! Good luck.