Well, I think this is the day that I finally completed my induction to Betfair as I looked at trading in running. I’ve never really spent much time on trading in running during my Betfair training as I didn’t see why it would help me out my with my betting strategy. I don’t think I could have been more wrong…….
Before I discuss what I learnt today, I better cover the subject of profit and loss. As I keep reiterating, I’m not caring at the moment how much I win or lose and simply due to this reason, I decided to keep my stakes down to an absolute minimum today. I played with £2 stakes all day. Subsequently, I didn’t need to add to my current Betfair balance of around £15. Obviously, this limited my laying opportunities but I’m not a fan of laying and then backing, so it’s not a big deal.
I played in 34 races, winning on 10, losing on 5 and breaking even on 19. I chose not to opt for a hedged profit on most of the races as the profit would have been less than 50p in most cases. Obviously, if I was trading with £500 stakes, I would be taking the hedged profits but I’m not too bothered about profit/loss at the moment, so I didn’t waste my time trying to earn a profit. Overall, I made a loss of £2.15 across the day which is not really indicative of the day’s gambling but I’m not too bothered. Apologies if this annoys some people reading this blog but be assured that I am totalling up my ‘training’ losses as I go and I will include these in my returns from The Experiment.
So what did I learn today?
Well, I definitely felt a ‘Eureka’ moment at one point this afternoon. As you know, I’m still trying to work out what betting strategy I plan to implement during The Experiment. So far, all I know is that I’m going to use a Dutching technique with a bit of trading thrown in which I hope to reduce the risk exposure of the Dutching. Well, I think I found the missing piece of the jigsaw today…….
During my first 2 practice days when I was learning to trade, I was always closing out my trades as soon as the race started. As you know, this resulted in some hefty losses and a bad first experience of trading. However, one of the things I pointed out was that there were numerous horses where I had created a liability on due to my poor trading skills. However, the horses then went on to win the race. Clearly, if I had let the liability run, I could have laid it off in running quite easily for a decent hedged profit but I didn’t know about this at the time.
When I was practicing my Dutching last week, as I said, there were numerous times when I could have laid off some of my Dutching selections quite easily before the race started. This comment obviously applies to laying off the horses in running also. There were a few times when my horses were a very short price during the race and I could have laid them off. Again, the key is to know when to do this but with more practice, this would get easier.
Today, I was trading a little bit before the races started and when my bets were not matched at the off, I chose to let them stand. I was absolutely amazed at the number of times that they were matched within 30 seconds of the off. Obviously, I could have then hedged to get a profit but I didn’t bother in most races. I just moved onto the next race.
So, I think there you have it. A betting strategy has evolved before your eyes. All I need to do is Dutch, trade before the off and trade during the race. Clearly, I need to develop trading strategies to ensure that I minimise the Dutching risk exposure and increase my profits in the best possible manner. I have the option of trading the Dutched selections to increase my profit on these selections or I can choose to Dutch the horses which I haven’t backed in order to minimise the risk. A trade-off between the two is probably the way to go but I’ll give it more thought.
Clearly, combining trading and Dutching will make the Dutching calculations much more difficult but I should be able to manage them OK. Time will tell……
Next Saturday will be the first day that I will attempt to implement my betting strategy for The Experiment. I will also increase my stakes again, so it should be more fun than today!
Lastly, I should hopefully get a date from my work this week concerning when I can reduce my hours. I have also had confirmation from my bank that my £15k betting bank has been approved, so I will get my hands on this money soon also. As soon as I have this money, I will effectively be able to start The Experiment for real. I may choose to start The Experiment even though I’m still working full-time as I can look to gamble in the evenings and at weekends until my hours are reduced. Whatever happens, I’ll keep everyone informed through the blog……