Profit since last update £265.79
After writing a review of the month and drawing a line under the month, the last two days have saw a further upturn in fortune for me and I’m posting another nice profit to complete this month so that it is recorded on the blog and is in my records.
In the last two days, I’ve analysed 6 races which has resulted in a winner, 2 seconds and a third along with 2 horses unplaced. 5 of the 6 have traded very low IR and I’ve made money on each of the 5 races and lost a little on one race.
Obviously, the winner has removed the monkey from my back regarding the losing run I was on with the tipping but being honest, it’s scant consolation for the month I’ve had.
I think the world is a strange place at times and especially where the gambling gods are concerned. For 7 weeks, I was purely punting my own selections and this was partly because I knew that most people at the site were doing this. However, I made the decision to stop doing this after I’d lost most of the subscriptions I’d collected and the world wasn’t looking that great for me or the subscribers.
8 days on, not a losing day in sight for me and everything appears to have ended on a bit of a high for my own personal punting. The subscribers won’t be feeling so great but I’m not going to hide the fact that I use my analysis to win money. That’s why people wanted me to give selections in the first place! Obviously, I’m disappointed with the way most of the selections have run and it’s been a poor month for The Form Analyst but thankfully, I personally don’t need winners to make money from trading the selections.
I’m trying to start discussions across at the site about different ways to make money from analysing a race using basic trading skills and some brains. Clearly, I’m never going to be a great trader and I’m unlikely to have a decent trading bank anytime in the near future as we enter recession and I’m paying a massive mortgage on a house that’s worth less than I paid for it!
However, I’ve made money all year by being smart on Betfair and from limited funds and as I’ve shown myself in the past week, when I’m in form and analysing races well, I can still make money. Obviously, the irony is the fact I was off sick for a few days and started trading again and it seems like I’ve never been away from it at all but I think the break has done me the world of good.
Before I started down on the whole tipping route, I was slightly disillusioned with trading and I was consistently annoyed with my lack of time and opportunity to do it. This hasn’t changed but now my attitude has changed a bit and I’m in no rush to make big bucks at the moment. The whole point of this experiment was to find a way to make money from my knowledge of horse-racing and obviously, any profit gathered along the way was greatly appreciated.
However, it was never the be all and end all and maybe I should have realised this. I’ve been reading back over my posts for May and June and at times, I was making the game seem very easy! Obviously, I then got a bit carried away and was trying to scale it up and try out a million different things when in all honesty, maybe that was as good as I ever was on Betfair. I was making £30 an hour from trading the horses and maybe that’s as good as I can be. If someone offered me that now, I’d take it every time!
Obviously, back then, I knew I wanted to try out different things and get better and be the best I can be but maybe I was pushing for something that I can’t achieve. Earning £500-£1k a month on top of my salary would put me in a hell of a good position and so what if other people can earn much more, they don’t have my job!
Anyway, these are just a few thoughts I shared on the forum at the site and I thought I’d share them here.
The Experiment was definitely an apt name and I’ve experimented with more things this year than any other gambling blog I’ve ever read!
I don’t think I’m finished experimenting yet…………..
Friday, 31 October 2008
Tuesday, 28 October 2008
Review of the month!
Loss since last update £13.63
Firstly, where the hell have I been for the past 3 weeks or so?
As I said at the last time of writing, I was really struggling to make time for the blog with everything else that has been going on and trying to find winners and spend time answering posts on the forum was difficult. Therefore, I took the very easy decision to take time away from writing blog updates and I honestly didn’t think anyone would care! The blog isn’t dead………and won’t be until The Experiment finishes.......
I have to laugh to myself as I created the blog and generated the interest in the blog but some people really need to get out more. The number of anonymous comments over the past few weeks has been funny and there are too many to comment on! Basically, let’s just say that lots of people were really keen to see me fail and lose a lot of money from backing my own selections….
Here’s my monthly P&L on Betfair:
Clearly, it’s been another poor month for me and I’m not proud of the month if I’m honest. However, I’ve only traded about 5 days in the month and I’ve backed all of my horses on Betfair Mobile throughout the month, so I haven’t put much time into the trading side of things. To have won over £280 from this month’s trading isn’t a disaster considering how poor the selections have run!
I’m sure all of you have been cringing at the run of losers this month on Racing Index and clearly, it appears tipping isn’t the place for me. This month has reinforced the belief that I shouldn’t be gambling and I should really be adopting a strategy of backing my selections and trading IR which I am doing.
I have made the decision to stop the tipping from the start of 2009 unless things change dramatically. I can’t imagine there will be too many tears but I haven’t enjoyed the tipping aspect one little bit and the thought of doing this permanently doesn’t appeal to me. I will look at it again but it needs to be a spin-off of tipping.
One thing I would say is that I’m really keen on keeping the forum going at the site and the guys on there are a very knowledgeable and decent bunch of guys. Therefore, we will just switch to a forum site I guess at the start of 2009 where we will have very limited members and only invited guests will be allowed to join. Our own little club!
The first question everyone probably wants answered…..how the hell do I make money from backing 29 consecutive losers in a month? Well, without being Einstein, the same way as I have done all year!
If you think back, the only reason I got into this whole tipping game was because people were interested in my knowledge and the fact I could use my race-reading skills to make money from Betfair. However, this didn’t involve gambling and lots of people were saying that with my knowledge, why the hell would I trade and not gamble?
I’ve now wasted the 3 months trying to follow some pursuit of becoming a small time gambler and tipster when clearly, my knowledge is reading races and not picking winners. Therefore, I’m currently playing to my biggest weakness at the moment and not my biggest strength. Not only that, I’m charging people a small fee for that pleasure!
Let’s clear up this thing regarding the fee. I know lots of people weren’t happy with me charging a fee after a very poor free period. However, the fee was for my time and nothing else. If I wanted to rip people off, I would have charged £150 a month for the selections and analysis. I stand by the comment that I could have earned more than the subscriptions this month from working in a supermarket for a couple of evenings a week. I could have!
This month, I’ve been to hell and back for a net profit from subscriptions of around £140. I’ll earn the same next month and the following month. I don’t expect any future subscriptions and I’m guessing the site will stop for a break at the end of the year. £420 profit won’t set the world alight!
I touched on this above but the forum has been the best thing to come out of the last few months. I’ve obviously managed to hook up with Andrew this year which has helped me enormously and now I’ve met a pretty decent bunch of guys on the forum, so it bodes well for the future.
As you all know, the reason I trade horse-racing and not other sports is because it is my hobby. I hate trading and I’m not a trading fan. I’m a horse-racing fan that trades and that’s a pretty important distinction. I’m never going to be a trader and I accepted that a while ago.
So far this year, I’m now past the £3k mark from my activities on here and it’s hardly a disaster. As you all know, I work full-time and I do this for a bit of extra cash and a bit of enjoyment. It’s never been the plan to go full-time or go wild with my trading as I can’t afford to fail.
I’m not wanting to dwell too much on the tipping thing and how bad it is going but it hasn’t gone great. The best example I can think of is last week when I gave 3 selections. I narrowed 3 races down to 3, 2, 3 possible winners and I got the winners at SPs of 14/1, 7/1 and 4/1 but selected 3 losers. Fortunately for me, I was off sick and managed to use my analysis for a change!
I won a fair amount and it recouped all my previous losses for the month. Up until that point, I was odds on to have only my second losing month on Betfair but I turned it around and thankfully, I’m in a small profit again. That’s probably the best example of why I can’t be a tipster. I can’t expect people to pay for someone to narrow races down and choose the wrong selection.
At the start of last week, I narrowed a 16 runner handicap down to 5 and got the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th. My selection was 5th. If I was in the house for that race and on Betfair, I would have made a bomb. 3 of the selections traded odds on IR and all 5 were big prices. How many people can do that at this game? Very few IMO but on Racing Index, it’s another loser on the board!
Clearly, I’m not made for tipping and I’m costing people money. One thing I’ve been saying to people on the forum is that I’d like to continue to share ideas and thoughts on racing on a forum but I wouldn’t really want people to continue backing me blind.
Personally, it hasn’t been the worst month of the year and if you sum my trading winnings to the subscriptions, it’s hardly a disaster. Clearly, I’ve probably put a lot of effort into the month and it may not be worth my time for this amount. However, if I had more time to trade, it would have been a bit better.
I’m conscious of the fact that I’m now eating up my BF allowance for the premium charge and although I have a bit to go before the charge hits me, I should really look at opening up a Betdaq account and seeing how things works across there. That’s what I intend to do fairly shortly.
Overall, not the best month of The Experiment but not the worst month also and I’m hoping next month may prove to be a more profitable month!
Thanks to Leon and Steve for the comments by the way. It’s people like you guys that have been very supportive throughout The Experiment and are great supporters of the blog.
I do intend on updating the blog more regularly again but it will be weekly at best I’m afraid………
Firstly, where the hell have I been for the past 3 weeks or so?
As I said at the last time of writing, I was really struggling to make time for the blog with everything else that has been going on and trying to find winners and spend time answering posts on the forum was difficult. Therefore, I took the very easy decision to take time away from writing blog updates and I honestly didn’t think anyone would care! The blog isn’t dead………and won’t be until The Experiment finishes.......
I have to laugh to myself as I created the blog and generated the interest in the blog but some people really need to get out more. The number of anonymous comments over the past few weeks has been funny and there are too many to comment on! Basically, let’s just say that lots of people were really keen to see me fail and lose a lot of money from backing my own selections….
Here’s my monthly P&L on Betfair:
Clearly, it’s been another poor month for me and I’m not proud of the month if I’m honest. However, I’ve only traded about 5 days in the month and I’ve backed all of my horses on Betfair Mobile throughout the month, so I haven’t put much time into the trading side of things. To have won over £280 from this month’s trading isn’t a disaster considering how poor the selections have run!
I’m sure all of you have been cringing at the run of losers this month on Racing Index and clearly, it appears tipping isn’t the place for me. This month has reinforced the belief that I shouldn’t be gambling and I should really be adopting a strategy of backing my selections and trading IR which I am doing.
I have made the decision to stop the tipping from the start of 2009 unless things change dramatically. I can’t imagine there will be too many tears but I haven’t enjoyed the tipping aspect one little bit and the thought of doing this permanently doesn’t appeal to me. I will look at it again but it needs to be a spin-off of tipping.
One thing I would say is that I’m really keen on keeping the forum going at the site and the guys on there are a very knowledgeable and decent bunch of guys. Therefore, we will just switch to a forum site I guess at the start of 2009 where we will have very limited members and only invited guests will be allowed to join. Our own little club!
The first question everyone probably wants answered…..how the hell do I make money from backing 29 consecutive losers in a month? Well, without being Einstein, the same way as I have done all year!
If you think back, the only reason I got into this whole tipping game was because people were interested in my knowledge and the fact I could use my race-reading skills to make money from Betfair. However, this didn’t involve gambling and lots of people were saying that with my knowledge, why the hell would I trade and not gamble?
I’ve now wasted the 3 months trying to follow some pursuit of becoming a small time gambler and tipster when clearly, my knowledge is reading races and not picking winners. Therefore, I’m currently playing to my biggest weakness at the moment and not my biggest strength. Not only that, I’m charging people a small fee for that pleasure!
Let’s clear up this thing regarding the fee. I know lots of people weren’t happy with me charging a fee after a very poor free period. However, the fee was for my time and nothing else. If I wanted to rip people off, I would have charged £150 a month for the selections and analysis. I stand by the comment that I could have earned more than the subscriptions this month from working in a supermarket for a couple of evenings a week. I could have!
This month, I’ve been to hell and back for a net profit from subscriptions of around £140. I’ll earn the same next month and the following month. I don’t expect any future subscriptions and I’m guessing the site will stop for a break at the end of the year. £420 profit won’t set the world alight!
I touched on this above but the forum has been the best thing to come out of the last few months. I’ve obviously managed to hook up with Andrew this year which has helped me enormously and now I’ve met a pretty decent bunch of guys on the forum, so it bodes well for the future.
As you all know, the reason I trade horse-racing and not other sports is because it is my hobby. I hate trading and I’m not a trading fan. I’m a horse-racing fan that trades and that’s a pretty important distinction. I’m never going to be a trader and I accepted that a while ago.
So far this year, I’m now past the £3k mark from my activities on here and it’s hardly a disaster. As you all know, I work full-time and I do this for a bit of extra cash and a bit of enjoyment. It’s never been the plan to go full-time or go wild with my trading as I can’t afford to fail.
I’m not wanting to dwell too much on the tipping thing and how bad it is going but it hasn’t gone great. The best example I can think of is last week when I gave 3 selections. I narrowed 3 races down to 3, 2, 3 possible winners and I got the winners at SPs of 14/1, 7/1 and 4/1 but selected 3 losers. Fortunately for me, I was off sick and managed to use my analysis for a change!
I won a fair amount and it recouped all my previous losses for the month. Up until that point, I was odds on to have only my second losing month on Betfair but I turned it around and thankfully, I’m in a small profit again. That’s probably the best example of why I can’t be a tipster. I can’t expect people to pay for someone to narrow races down and choose the wrong selection.
At the start of last week, I narrowed a 16 runner handicap down to 5 and got the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th. My selection was 5th. If I was in the house for that race and on Betfair, I would have made a bomb. 3 of the selections traded odds on IR and all 5 were big prices. How many people can do that at this game? Very few IMO but on Racing Index, it’s another loser on the board!
Clearly, I’m not made for tipping and I’m costing people money. One thing I’ve been saying to people on the forum is that I’d like to continue to share ideas and thoughts on racing on a forum but I wouldn’t really want people to continue backing me blind.
Personally, it hasn’t been the worst month of the year and if you sum my trading winnings to the subscriptions, it’s hardly a disaster. Clearly, I’ve probably put a lot of effort into the month and it may not be worth my time for this amount. However, if I had more time to trade, it would have been a bit better.
I’m conscious of the fact that I’m now eating up my BF allowance for the premium charge and although I have a bit to go before the charge hits me, I should really look at opening up a Betdaq account and seeing how things works across there. That’s what I intend to do fairly shortly.
Overall, not the best month of The Experiment but not the worst month also and I’m hoping next month may prove to be a more profitable month!
Thanks to Leon and Steve for the comments by the way. It’s people like you guys that have been very supportive throughout The Experiment and are great supporters of the blog.
I do intend on updating the blog more regularly again but it will be weekly at best I’m afraid………
Friday, 10 October 2008
Taking the tipping world by storm!
Daily Profit £160.50
After a lack of updates on here due to time constraints, I've now managed two posts in a day!
Being honest, it's always much easier to come on here after you've picked a winner and won a few quid, so I didn't want to let this opportunity pass me by! lol
I looked at two races today. You can see the analysis on the site but in the first race, I narrowed it down to 3. That doesn't tell the complete story though as I initially selected the winner last night but I changed my mind this morning to the eventual second after seeing the first shows today as the eventual selection looked a little short at 6/1 and 7/1. It then drifted to 8/1 and 9/1 in a place and I managed to get 10.5 on Betfair as did a few others.
So, I eventually chose the right horse to select and it was heavily punted on course again to win at 11/2. I was discussing the punting of my horses pre-race across on the forum as my horses are shortening an amazing amount pre-race this month which is probably different to last month but I'm sure it's no coincidence that this month is going better!
A few were pulling my leg about the fact it must mean I have lots of subscribers but it definitely isn't this! lol It's simply due to the fact that my horses are fairly solid selections which are well handicapped and primed to run well and this explains the odds shortening.
My second selection was only 3rd after being backed from 11/1 to 13/2 on course (was 15 on BF at one point and traded 2.6 IR) and it ran a great race from the front. It was beaten less than a length, so I won't complain.
One thing I have realised this month is why it is so difficult for tipsters on Racing Index to make decent profits. I'm 5 winners from 11 selections I think (can't remember if I'm honest) but I'm only about 12 points up to SP. I'm a little more to BF SP. I'll need to work out how much I'm up to suggested odds as I've definitely lost a few points this month by horses shortening dramatically pre-race.
I think the difference between today and the last few days is that I looked at 6 races last night and managed to choose which races suited me best. Recently, I've been forcing myself to analyse a race and maybe I was too keen to find a selection. This is probably just down to over-eagerness to prove myself to teh subscribers but I'm starting to chill a little now which can only help in the long-run!
After a lack of updates on here due to time constraints, I've now managed two posts in a day!
Being honest, it's always much easier to come on here after you've picked a winner and won a few quid, so I didn't want to let this opportunity pass me by! lol
I looked at two races today. You can see the analysis on the site but in the first race, I narrowed it down to 3. That doesn't tell the complete story though as I initially selected the winner last night but I changed my mind this morning to the eventual second after seeing the first shows today as the eventual selection looked a little short at 6/1 and 7/1. It then drifted to 8/1 and 9/1 in a place and I managed to get 10.5 on Betfair as did a few others.
So, I eventually chose the right horse to select and it was heavily punted on course again to win at 11/2. I was discussing the punting of my horses pre-race across on the forum as my horses are shortening an amazing amount pre-race this month which is probably different to last month but I'm sure it's no coincidence that this month is going better!
A few were pulling my leg about the fact it must mean I have lots of subscribers but it definitely isn't this! lol It's simply due to the fact that my horses are fairly solid selections which are well handicapped and primed to run well and this explains the odds shortening.
My second selection was only 3rd after being backed from 11/1 to 13/2 on course (was 15 on BF at one point and traded 2.6 IR) and it ran a great race from the front. It was beaten less than a length, so I won't complain.
One thing I have realised this month is why it is so difficult for tipsters on Racing Index to make decent profits. I'm 5 winners from 11 selections I think (can't remember if I'm honest) but I'm only about 12 points up to SP. I'm a little more to BF SP. I'll need to work out how much I'm up to suggested odds as I've definitely lost a few points this month by horses shortening dramatically pre-race.
I think the difference between today and the last few days is that I looked at 6 races last night and managed to choose which races suited me best. Recently, I've been forcing myself to analyse a race and maybe I was too keen to find a selection. This is probably just down to over-eagerness to prove myself to teh subscribers but I'm starting to chill a little now which can only help in the long-run!
Any ideas?
£20.00 loss since last update
As I thought would happen, the blog has become the least important thing to update at nights now and it is starting to suffer.
At the moment, my nights entail writing a post race review for the day’s selections, answering any forum posts and PMs on the new site, answering any emails from people and lastly, analysing the racing for the following day which is obviously the most important thing!
Consequently, updating the blog has dropped on the to-do-list and it is starting to show on the blog and on the number of readers!
However, I’m determined to keep the blog alive and I’ll need to think of ways to kick some life into it again…..
Since my last blog update, I’ve had two selections and both have run poorly. My selection last night went off like a scalded cat and traded very low very quickly so I took the opportunity to get my stake back IR but it faded quickly at the end.
I’m not too concerned with a few losers as a long-run profit is what I’m aiming for here. Obviously, I’m in profit in the short-term at the moment due to my decent start this month but I’m sure the long-run will be fine!
I’ve started to kick off some discussions on the forum under a thread called ‘Ask Graeme’ where I’m happy to answer any questions on horse-racing form or anything else to do with horse-racing. It’s very early days but I think the guys appreciate this sort of thing as I want to effectively educate them so that they can select their own winners or at least understand my rationale a bit more. In time, I’m hoping they can start to look at races on their own and effectively rely on me less and on other tipsters less.
I’ll keep this post short and sweet today and I’ll have a think over the weekend about where the blog should go.
Good luck with your trading and punting!
If anyone has any potential ideas for the blog, drop me a note.....
As I thought would happen, the blog has become the least important thing to update at nights now and it is starting to suffer.
At the moment, my nights entail writing a post race review for the day’s selections, answering any forum posts and PMs on the new site, answering any emails from people and lastly, analysing the racing for the following day which is obviously the most important thing!
Consequently, updating the blog has dropped on the to-do-list and it is starting to show on the blog and on the number of readers!
However, I’m determined to keep the blog alive and I’ll need to think of ways to kick some life into it again…..
Since my last blog update, I’ve had two selections and both have run poorly. My selection last night went off like a scalded cat and traded very low very quickly so I took the opportunity to get my stake back IR but it faded quickly at the end.
I’m not too concerned with a few losers as a long-run profit is what I’m aiming for here. Obviously, I’m in profit in the short-term at the moment due to my decent start this month but I’m sure the long-run will be fine!
I’ve started to kick off some discussions on the forum under a thread called ‘Ask Graeme’ where I’m happy to answer any questions on horse-racing form or anything else to do with horse-racing. It’s very early days but I think the guys appreciate this sort of thing as I want to effectively educate them so that they can select their own winners or at least understand my rationale a bit more. In time, I’m hoping they can start to look at races on their own and effectively rely on me less and on other tipsters less.
I’ll keep this post short and sweet today and I’ll have a think over the weekend about where the blog should go.
Good luck with your trading and punting!
If anyone has any potential ideas for the blog, drop me a note.....
Tuesday, 7 October 2008
50% strike rate on the day
Daily Loss £40.00
Not for the first time this month, my subscribers have had a better day than me with their punting!
I gave out two selections today with a winner at 4/1 (SP) and a 4th. The winner was easily one of the most interesting horses I’ve selected since I began sharing info with readers/subscribers and I’m really pleased that it won.
In the past, I have spent lots of time analysing selling races and claiming races on the flat. At one time, I got so good at it, I packed in the handicap analysis and only analysed these other races. On reflection, I decided this wasn’t a wise move and over time, I’ve moved more towards handicaps. The reason for this is simply because there isn’t as much value in the other types of races. I end up selecting lots of favourites and short-prices!
Today, I was very sweet on a horse called Dazzling Begum. I spotted it last night and it was trading at 10 on Betfair. I couldn’t quite understand why if I’m honest but the saying “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” springs to mind!
Last night, I sent my analysis off to Andrew to proof read and when I checked this morning, he agreed with me that it was a great spot. It was only 9am, so I had to wait for the first shows before sending out my note.
The very first show I saw was from Blue Square at 7/1. I had to move quickly. By the time the email was set to go, it had already been cut to 9/2 there. I issued the note saying that 5/1 was the best price available (it was on oddschecker!) but I know 2 guys in the forum got 11/2 an 6/1, so it definitely wasn’t the best price in the whole market.
Anyway, the horse turned out to be the steamer of the day and was trading at 2/1 with some bookies. I wrote a forum post saying I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole at 2/1 no matter how keen I was on it. Not surprisingly, it drifted on course from an opening show of 3/1 all the way out to 4/1. It then traded at 100 IR for £117 before getting up to win by half a length! Phew………
In the midst of all this excitement this morning, I forgot to go on BF Mobile to back the damn thing and when I checked at lunchtime, the prices were well gone. I then couldn’t be bothered going on my phone at my desk to back it at the off as I was fairly busy and as luck would have it, it drifted quickly and then won!
Obviously, slightly annoyed I missed a winner to be honest but at least the subscribers backed it. As I said to Andrew straight after, it cost me £80 by not backing it but in the long-run, if I can keep churning out the winners, people will be able to use my info to win much more than this and I’ll hopefully get some rewards down the line!
My second selection was Charles Darwin and it ran poorly in 4th. I was a bit off with my analysis if I’m being honest as I would never have selected the Cecil winner. Won’t dwell on it too much though as I can’t expect to select every winner.
Obviously, I managed to halt my losing run at 1, but I’m back on a losing run of 1 again which equals my longest run, so I need to find a winner tomorrow!
Overall, I’m 4 winners from 7 selections now which is a great start for me. I’m still not appearing on the Racing Index Comparison tables yet as they only update that every so often but when they do, I won’t have too many in front of me at the minute. You can still check my results by clicking on the link at the right and selecting the back box instead of the lay box.
Very early days to be thinking about league tables obviously but it’s a decent start to the month. Importantly, I’m actually really enjoying the banter with the guys at the site and I’m finding it a privilege to be picking winners for them! I think people really believe in me across at the site and that’s a great feeling. Getting off to a good starts helps obviously but I think that they agree that in the long-run, I have enough knowledge to be able to make consistent profits.
A few of the guys are really keen to get started learning about some basics of form reading and I’m hoping to kick this off now. Obviously, it will play second fiddle to my own form studies as I need to ensure that I continue to pick winners consistently but I don’t mind spending a little bit of time helping them understand my methods and what I do. Without them, I wouldn’t be getting this chance to showcase my talents!
Not for the first time this month, my subscribers have had a better day than me with their punting!
I gave out two selections today with a winner at 4/1 (SP) and a 4th. The winner was easily one of the most interesting horses I’ve selected since I began sharing info with readers/subscribers and I’m really pleased that it won.
In the past, I have spent lots of time analysing selling races and claiming races on the flat. At one time, I got so good at it, I packed in the handicap analysis and only analysed these other races. On reflection, I decided this wasn’t a wise move and over time, I’ve moved more towards handicaps. The reason for this is simply because there isn’t as much value in the other types of races. I end up selecting lots of favourites and short-prices!
Today, I was very sweet on a horse called Dazzling Begum. I spotted it last night and it was trading at 10 on Betfair. I couldn’t quite understand why if I’m honest but the saying “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” springs to mind!
Last night, I sent my analysis off to Andrew to proof read and when I checked this morning, he agreed with me that it was a great spot. It was only 9am, so I had to wait for the first shows before sending out my note.
The very first show I saw was from Blue Square at 7/1. I had to move quickly. By the time the email was set to go, it had already been cut to 9/2 there. I issued the note saying that 5/1 was the best price available (it was on oddschecker!) but I know 2 guys in the forum got 11/2 an 6/1, so it definitely wasn’t the best price in the whole market.
Anyway, the horse turned out to be the steamer of the day and was trading at 2/1 with some bookies. I wrote a forum post saying I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole at 2/1 no matter how keen I was on it. Not surprisingly, it drifted on course from an opening show of 3/1 all the way out to 4/1. It then traded at 100 IR for £117 before getting up to win by half a length! Phew………
In the midst of all this excitement this morning, I forgot to go on BF Mobile to back the damn thing and when I checked at lunchtime, the prices were well gone. I then couldn’t be bothered going on my phone at my desk to back it at the off as I was fairly busy and as luck would have it, it drifted quickly and then won!
Obviously, slightly annoyed I missed a winner to be honest but at least the subscribers backed it. As I said to Andrew straight after, it cost me £80 by not backing it but in the long-run, if I can keep churning out the winners, people will be able to use my info to win much more than this and I’ll hopefully get some rewards down the line!
My second selection was Charles Darwin and it ran poorly in 4th. I was a bit off with my analysis if I’m being honest as I would never have selected the Cecil winner. Won’t dwell on it too much though as I can’t expect to select every winner.
Obviously, I managed to halt my losing run at 1, but I’m back on a losing run of 1 again which equals my longest run, so I need to find a winner tomorrow!
Overall, I’m 4 winners from 7 selections now which is a great start for me. I’m still not appearing on the Racing Index Comparison tables yet as they only update that every so often but when they do, I won’t have too many in front of me at the minute. You can still check my results by clicking on the link at the right and selecting the back box instead of the lay box.
Very early days to be thinking about league tables obviously but it’s a decent start to the month. Importantly, I’m actually really enjoying the banter with the guys at the site and I’m finding it a privilege to be picking winners for them! I think people really believe in me across at the site and that’s a great feeling. Getting off to a good starts helps obviously but I think that they agree that in the long-run, I have enough knowledge to be able to make consistent profits.
A few of the guys are really keen to get started learning about some basics of form reading and I’m hoping to kick this off now. Obviously, it will play second fiddle to my own form studies as I need to ensure that I continue to pick winners consistently but I don’t mind spending a little bit of time helping them understand my methods and what I do. Without them, I wouldn’t be getting this chance to showcase my talents!
Monday, 6 October 2008
What? A well backed loser......
Daily Profit £2.60
Before I discuss today's losing selection, I just wanted to mention the forum across at the new site. As I've made clear on here from the outset, I always saw the forum as a pivotal tool across at the new site. So far, we've had over 200 posts in a week and it's being used exactly as I intended.
I actually managed to make a tiny profit today simply due to the fact that one of the subscribers put up a horse called Starlight Gazer. As a few of you will remember, this was my first maximum bet during the 'free' month. It was well beaten that day after staying on late when slowly away. I did see it last night but it was running in a 17 runner race. Today, after 9 non-runners in the race, it suddenly looked a great opportunity for it and I'm pleased to see it won.
I only had a couple of quid on it today as I was trying to pay for my upcoming bet and it worked well! :) I'd like to say thanks to my subscriber friend at the forum!
I initially had two selections today but both were non-runners. I subsequently decided to go for another horse in one of the races and it was probably the correct decision even allowing for the fact it was well beaten. The horse opened up on track at 6/1 (it was about 8/1 this morning) and was backed off the boards to 7/2 second favourite. Clearly, the market saw the same as me but for once, we were both wide of the mark.
Being honest, I really don't mind well backed losers. As I've said many times on here, my intention at this game is to make a profit in the long-run. In my opinion, if you select horses which are overpriced and are backed heavily pre-race, as long as you are not betting at SP, you'll do very well in the long-run.
Since I'm being proofed on Racing Index, I've been looking in depth at how other tipsters do on there. Since this is my blog, I can be fairly truthful on here. The results are pretty much a disaster! In all honesty, I can't believe how bad they are.
Looking at a 12 month period, there is barely a tipster that can generate a 100 point profit to SP. Most can't even generate a profit! As I've said before on here, my target was to make 240 points a year at this game. Having seen the results on there, maybe I misunderestimated how difficult that target may be to achieve!
However, maybe it's just the case that very few of the guys on there are very good at all and don't have a consistent method which will produce long-term profits? I really don't know to be honest and I don't really want to comment on other rival tipsters after 6 days of 'real' tipping but it was quite interesting I thought.
I'm currently down to a strike rate of 60% for the month now which means I can do with a winner tomorrow to get back on track. I've equalled my longest losing run of 1 now, so I don't want to set a new record tomorrow!
Before I discuss today's losing selection, I just wanted to mention the forum across at the new site. As I've made clear on here from the outset, I always saw the forum as a pivotal tool across at the new site. So far, we've had over 200 posts in a week and it's being used exactly as I intended.
I actually managed to make a tiny profit today simply due to the fact that one of the subscribers put up a horse called Starlight Gazer. As a few of you will remember, this was my first maximum bet during the 'free' month. It was well beaten that day after staying on late when slowly away. I did see it last night but it was running in a 17 runner race. Today, after 9 non-runners in the race, it suddenly looked a great opportunity for it and I'm pleased to see it won.
I only had a couple of quid on it today as I was trying to pay for my upcoming bet and it worked well! :) I'd like to say thanks to my subscriber friend at the forum!
I initially had two selections today but both were non-runners. I subsequently decided to go for another horse in one of the races and it was probably the correct decision even allowing for the fact it was well beaten. The horse opened up on track at 6/1 (it was about 8/1 this morning) and was backed off the boards to 7/2 second favourite. Clearly, the market saw the same as me but for once, we were both wide of the mark.
Being honest, I really don't mind well backed losers. As I've said many times on here, my intention at this game is to make a profit in the long-run. In my opinion, if you select horses which are overpriced and are backed heavily pre-race, as long as you are not betting at SP, you'll do very well in the long-run.
Since I'm being proofed on Racing Index, I've been looking in depth at how other tipsters do on there. Since this is my blog, I can be fairly truthful on here. The results are pretty much a disaster! In all honesty, I can't believe how bad they are.
Looking at a 12 month period, there is barely a tipster that can generate a 100 point profit to SP. Most can't even generate a profit! As I've said before on here, my target was to make 240 points a year at this game. Having seen the results on there, maybe I misunderestimated how difficult that target may be to achieve!
However, maybe it's just the case that very few of the guys on there are very good at all and don't have a consistent method which will produce long-term profits? I really don't know to be honest and I don't really want to comment on other rival tipsters after 6 days of 'real' tipping but it was quite interesting I thought.
I'm currently down to a strike rate of 60% for the month now which means I can do with a winner tomorrow to get back on track. I've equalled my longest losing run of 1 now, so I don't want to set a new record tomorrow!
Saturday, 4 October 2008
A non-runner....
Daily Loss £30.00
I showed remarkable discipline today by only selecting one runner but it was a non-runner.
When I found out, I quickly reanalysed the race on the forum for anyone who was reading it and I came out with a possible 3 winners. I ruled out one which left two. Annoyingly, they have finished first and second but I backed the wrong one!
Being honest, I've not had a great day for punting and that sums it up. My horse hung very badly across the track and chucked it away IMO.
My intial analysis ruled the winner out when I completed it last night but I changed the going in my reanalysis and out popped the winner in the final two.
As I've said many times on here, ground is crucial in race analysis and the ground at Redcar was definitely not riding good IMO. It was at least good to soft and this was confirmed in the results.
Apologies for the short post tonight but I'm getting ready to go out for a housewarming party at a friends!
I showed remarkable discipline today by only selecting one runner but it was a non-runner.
When I found out, I quickly reanalysed the race on the forum for anyone who was reading it and I came out with a possible 3 winners. I ruled out one which left two. Annoyingly, they have finished first and second but I backed the wrong one!
Being honest, I've not had a great day for punting and that sums it up. My horse hung very badly across the track and chucked it away IMO.
My intial analysis ruled the winner out when I completed it last night but I changed the going in my reanalysis and out popped the winner in the final two.
As I've said many times on here, ground is crucial in race analysis and the ground at Redcar was definitely not riding good IMO. It was at least good to soft and this was confirmed in the results.
Apologies for the short post tonight but I'm getting ready to go out for a housewarming party at a friends!
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