Tuesday, 7 October 2008

50% strike rate on the day

Daily Loss £40.00

Not for the first time this month, my subscribers have had a better day than me with their punting!

I gave out two selections today with a winner at 4/1 (SP) and a 4th. The winner was easily one of the most interesting horses I’ve selected since I began sharing info with readers/subscribers and I’m really pleased that it won.

In the past, I have spent lots of time analysing selling races and claiming races on the flat. At one time, I got so good at it, I packed in the handicap analysis and only analysed these other races. On reflection, I decided this wasn’t a wise move and over time, I’ve moved more towards handicaps. The reason for this is simply because there isn’t as much value in the other types of races. I end up selecting lots of favourites and short-prices!

Today, I was very sweet on a horse called Dazzling Begum. I spotted it last night and it was trading at 10 on Betfair. I couldn’t quite understand why if I’m honest but the saying “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” springs to mind!

Last night, I sent my analysis off to Andrew to proof read and when I checked this morning, he agreed with me that it was a great spot. It was only 9am, so I had to wait for the first shows before sending out my note.

The very first show I saw was from Blue Square at 7/1. I had to move quickly. By the time the email was set to go, it had already been cut to 9/2 there. I issued the note saying that 5/1 was the best price available (it was on oddschecker!) but I know 2 guys in the forum got 11/2 an 6/1, so it definitely wasn’t the best price in the whole market.

Anyway, the horse turned out to be the steamer of the day and was trading at 2/1 with some bookies. I wrote a forum post saying I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole at 2/1 no matter how keen I was on it. Not surprisingly, it drifted on course from an opening show of 3/1 all the way out to 4/1. It then traded at 100 IR for £117 before getting up to win by half a length! Phew………

In the midst of all this excitement this morning, I forgot to go on BF Mobile to back the damn thing and when I checked at lunchtime, the prices were well gone. I then couldn’t be bothered going on my phone at my desk to back it at the off as I was fairly busy and as luck would have it, it drifted quickly and then won!

Obviously, slightly annoyed I missed a winner to be honest but at least the subscribers backed it. As I said to Andrew straight after, it cost me £80 by not backing it but in the long-run, if I can keep churning out the winners, people will be able to use my info to win much more than this and I’ll hopefully get some rewards down the line!

My second selection was Charles Darwin and it ran poorly in 4th. I was a bit off with my analysis if I’m being honest as I would never have selected the Cecil winner. Won’t dwell on it too much though as I can’t expect to select every winner.

Obviously, I managed to halt my losing run at 1, but I’m back on a losing run of 1 again which equals my longest run, so I need to find a winner tomorrow!

Overall, I’m 4 winners from 7 selections now which is a great start for me. I’m still not appearing on the Racing Index Comparison tables yet as they only update that every so often but when they do, I won’t have too many in front of me at the minute. You can still check my results by clicking on the link at the right and selecting the back box instead of the lay box.

Very early days to be thinking about league tables obviously but it’s a decent start to the month. Importantly, I’m actually really enjoying the banter with the guys at the site and I’m finding it a privilege to be picking winners for them! I think people really believe in me across at the site and that’s a great feeling. Getting off to a good starts helps obviously but I think that they agree that in the long-run, I have enough knowledge to be able to make consistent profits.

A few of the guys are really keen to get started learning about some basics of form reading and I’m hoping to kick this off now. Obviously, it will play second fiddle to my own form studies as I need to ensure that I continue to pick winners consistently but I don’t mind spending a little bit of time helping them understand my methods and what I do. Without them, I wouldn’t be getting this chance to showcase my talents!


GeorgeH said...

Hi Graeme,
That proofing table looks VERY impressive and will look even better by tomorrow (table does not incude today's selections).

A truly super start for your subscribers and I enjoy keeping tabs on how you're doing.

I have absolutely no idea how you work out the form in these most difficult and closely rated races. I know MY system is first to sort out the C&D horses and concentrate on them. If one of them is trained by favourite trainer/jockey combos, such as Linda Perret/Jim Crowley, I will go for that horse. Not rocket science (whereas your system seems to be close to it!) but it's the way I enjoy picking my selections.

Carry on the excellent work.
Cheers, GeorgeH.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi George.

I think the phrase you use which is key is that you 'enjoy picking your selections'. Similarly, I really enjoy analysing races and I find it so much fun. Some would say I'm mad but I actually really enjoy. Not sure if I could do it full-time like other form experts but every race is so different, it's is always a challenge.

I'm also a fan of the Perret/Crwoley combination and I've backed a few winners from them this season too.

Don't really have a favourite combination but I like the Mick Easterby stable but his strike rate is awful. However, on the horses he runs under optimal conditions, his strike rate is much better and I try to look for these!

Good luck for today.