Monday, 6 October 2008

What? A well backed loser......

Daily Profit £2.60

Before I discuss today's losing selection, I just wanted to mention the forum across at the new site. As I've made clear on here from the outset, I always saw the forum as a pivotal tool across at the new site. So far, we've had over 200 posts in a week and it's being used exactly as I intended.

I actually managed to make a tiny profit today simply due to the fact that one of the subscribers put up a horse called Starlight Gazer. As a few of you will remember, this was my first maximum bet during the 'free' month. It was well beaten that day after staying on late when slowly away. I did see it last night but it was running in a 17 runner race. Today, after 9 non-runners in the race, it suddenly looked a great opportunity for it and I'm pleased to see it won.

I only had a couple of quid on it today as I was trying to pay for my upcoming bet and it worked well! :) I'd like to say thanks to my subscriber friend at the forum!

I initially had two selections today but both were non-runners. I subsequently decided to go for another horse in one of the races and it was probably the correct decision even allowing for the fact it was well beaten. The horse opened up on track at 6/1 (it was about 8/1 this morning) and was backed off the boards to 7/2 second favourite. Clearly, the market saw the same as me but for once, we were both wide of the mark.

Being honest, I really don't mind well backed losers. As I've said many times on here, my intention at this game is to make a profit in the long-run. In my opinion, if you select horses which are overpriced and are backed heavily pre-race, as long as you are not betting at SP, you'll do very well in the long-run.

Since I'm being proofed on Racing Index, I've been looking in depth at how other tipsters do on there. Since this is my blog, I can be fairly truthful on here. The results are pretty much a disaster! In all honesty, I can't believe how bad they are.

Looking at a 12 month period, there is barely a tipster that can generate a 100 point profit to SP. Most can't even generate a profit! As I've said before on here, my target was to make 240 points a year at this game. Having seen the results on there, maybe I misunderestimated how difficult that target may be to achieve!

However, maybe it's just the case that very few of the guys on there are very good at all and don't have a consistent method which will produce long-term profits? I really don't know to be honest and I don't really want to comment on other rival tipsters after 6 days of 'real' tipping but it was quite interesting I thought.

I'm currently down to a strike rate of 60% for the month now which means I can do with a winner tomorrow to get back on track. I've equalled my longest losing run of 1 now, so I don't want to set a new record tomorrow!


GeorgeH said...

Hi G,

Had 3 winners out of 5 bets today; I didn't log on until 4.30-ish and had a hurried ew bet on Bollin Greta at 16-1 and Bet Noir (Andrew Black mentioned this one)at 10-1. In the 4.50 I had £2 on Starlight Gazer at 11-2, having some vague memory of this horse from your last month's blog. £2 is a large bet for me! In the 5pm race I had two win bets: Full Victory and Dancing Storm, both losers but Dancing Storm did get 3rd. 5.10 race I had 5op ew Shemali at 18-1 so made a profit; I thought Shemali ran a great race and I'll put that one in my notebook!
In the last race I had my max £2 on Opera Writer at 5-2, but as SP was 3-1 (Hills are good at this) I had my best day for months! Had a bit of bad luck in this race as I had a 25p rev. forecast with Corrib! Still, quite satisfied on the whole.

I ALWAYS take a price with Hills as you always get the best price, either SP if it's higher than the price you took. Good idea, applies only to internet punters.
Cheers, GeorgeH

Graeme Dand said...

Hi George.

Sounds like an excellent day. I too thought Bollin Great would run well (always check runners who begin with Bollin!) but I was surprised to see it win.

I too read the Andrew Black blog from time to time but he really is a useful tipster! I like track his when they run but I came to the conclusion a while back that I can judge better than him when his will run well! lol

Lucky you have a good memory mate! Starlight Gazer was my first maximum bet last month when it lost but it was could to see it follow up. I had a tiny bet on it!

I went against Opera Writer as I wasn't sure it would go on soft. It went well on it and is improving fast.

Sounds like you had a great day mate. Well done!


Graeme Dand said...


A Freudian slip there.

He's a useless tipster!