I knew from quite early today that I wouldn't get much of a chance to look at the horse-racing on my day off work as I had a lot to do around the house. However, I logged on to our discussion site this morning to see what was going on and I noticed that Andrew had put up a horse in the 5.05 at Windsor.
I had a look at the race and was quite sweet on a horse called Brief Goodbye. I wrote on the site:
"From a purely handicapping perspective, Brief Goodbye is the one. Huge doubts about ground and possibly trip and it's first run of year. However, all 3 combined should ensure it gets to a large price and every time it has run off 69 or 70, it's won well before easing back up the weights. It's back down to 70 for the first time in a long while and does seem to be appreciating further as it gets older, so maybe trip not so much an issue."
The reply I got from Andrew was "you have given me some 8 year old donkey, who not surprisingly, has won from a higher rating a few years back..."
Knocker's thoughts on it was "Needs faster ground. No."
Anyway, I traded the horse a few times during the afternoon and all I did was kept backing and laying off a little lower. Annoyingly, the horse went on a massive drift just before the off, so I couldn't maximise my riskfree bet on it as much as I wanted to.
I also employed the same tactic on Andrew's horse throughout the day. This was Polish Red.
At the end of the race, my betfair screen looked like this:
Guess who's horse won? You beauty..............
Being honest, I maximised my profit during the race as I left in lots of lays on both horses at below 3 but I cancelled all my lays with 2f to go as my horse was always going to win from then on, so no point in giving away needless profit.
My other profit today came from the 5.00 Kemp race where I put up Bomber Command as a possible winner. This was again dismissed as an unlikely winner but I managed to make about £7 in running from my smallish riskfree bet on it.
Overall, a highly satisfying day for me with 2 wins from 2 races. My dream run continues and I've only lost on 4 races out of nearly 90 now, with no losing days in over 30 days!
Let's hope this run continues.............
3 comments:
You got lucky punk - simple as ! Considering you didn't fancy my horse much, you managed to get into rather a good position on him... I put it down to the drying ground - mine needed give (which it had this morning): yours needed firm... and they say the sun shines on the righteous !
Just remember, one swallow doesn't make a summer - I'll be back !
Andrew.
PS - Well done mate !
When I said in my comment to your last post that you'd hit it big sooner or later, I didn't expect it to happen immediately.
Well done Graeme.
Alistair
Andrew,
Lol @ luck. I’ve had no luck for the past 2 weeks as I’ve picked many winners but barely got anything back. Today was the first time I’d maximised my profit, so I’ll stop complaining now!
Alistair,
I didn’t notice your message mate until I’d posted up my post. If I had, I would have referred to it in my post. With that kind of foresight, you should be picking winners and not trading mate!
Have you not had any thoughts yet about joining us on the dark side? Once you have developed your trading skills enough, I’d recommend you look to use them by generating riskfree bets in the place market.
The sort of horses we are backing in the win market are priced 4+ in the place market. You could easily be taking the green profits you scalp and putting all the profit on the selection most likely to place. Seems a straightforward way to increase your profits by backing horses most likely to win for a place with the riskfree scalping profits. Since we only do a few races a day, it wouldn’t interfere with your normal trading routine……
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