Statistics are like bikinis......

.....What they reveal is suggestive, what they conceal is vital!

Review of June 2008

As usual, I always like to end each month with a review of how the month went for me. This month, I’m going to share some stats with you as I read an interesting piece on analysing results across at http://www.punt.com/.

I wrote on Matt’s blog that I didn’t think it was necessary to analyse my results in the way that Matt describes but I think that has more to do with the sums of money involved. If I was trading the sums that Matt trades, I’d probably want to analyse my results a bit closer!

As I mentioned when I started the blog, I was treating this as a 12 month Experiment and therefore, it was important that I capture some data to enable me to judge how successful I have been (or unsuccessful as may be the case!).

I keep a spreadsheet up to date every week with my daily P&L along with a detail of the number of races I’ve traded, no of wins, losses and break-even races. I also like to track how long I trade although this is a fairly crude measure in whole number of hours. I sometimes trade one race and I always put down 1 hour of trading, so I don’t actually trade for as many hours as I record but I do spend some time reading form, so I’m guessing it all cancels out!

Before I discuss some of the statistics, here is an update of my P&L graph.

I think the defining features of the graph for the last month are the gradient of the slope and the large loss I suffered in the middle of the month. Clearly, if I hadn’t suffered that loss, I would have been looking at breaking through the £1,000 barrier in the month which would have been a great personal achievement.

In addition, the graph appears to be getting steeper and if you look at each month as a separate month, you will see that I have improved each month quite significantly on the previous month.

If I strip out the US Masters win in April (£380) and the large loss in June (£286), my graph would look like this:

When I started the blog, I remember commenting on how I believed my earnings over the 12 months would be exponential in nature! It’s nice to be proved correct…..

OK, as promised above, I said I would share some statistics with you all. I was going to be keeping these statistics until the end of the 12 months before posting them but I’ll give an update now since I am a third of the way through The Experiment.

Here are the statistics I track on a monthly basis:

I don’t intend on talking through every single statistic but a few catch my eye. I always like to track the amount I am earning every hour on Betfair from trading the horse-racing as it’s a good indicator of whether I can possibly do this full-time at some point in the future.

At the moment, I’m earning about £30 an hour from horse-race trading which is quite good. I remember laughing (nearly crying!) in March when I worked out I was earning about £1 an hour from trading and it shows I’ve come a long way in a short space of time.

I think the most interesting statistic by far is the last statistic above. I have consistently won on about 50% of the races I have traded over the 4 months. However, I have managed to reduce the number of races I lose on significantly over the 4 months. This has been the secret to my success and I only have a losing trade once every 6 races now. That makes good reading and offers me plenty of encouragement for the future.

It’s going to be a slow start to the month of July as I am away to Alton Towers with work for a few days and I’m thinking that Saturday may be my first day of trading this month, so I’ll look forward to that!

I haven’t stated a monthly target on the blog before as I didn’t want the added pressure of trying to meet a target. Usually, any profit amount for the month would be my target!

For July, my first target is to break through the £3k profit barrier (I need another £180 profit).

Hopefully, assuming I make this £180 profit target, my next target would be to break the £1,000 profit barrier in the month.

Good luck to everyone for the month ahead and I hope we all have a great month of trading.

Trading Example

Last week, I said I wanted to talk though an example of how I trade a race. I haven’t had the opportunity to discuss it yet but I’ve had a couple of comments concerning yesterday’s race, so I’ll do a quick post describing how I traded Ashdown Express in the 3.40 at Windsor on Saturday.

A few quick points:

I don’t use any software such as Bet Angel or Bet Trader. I only use the standard Betfair interface.
I don’t use any graphs or weight of money indicators when I am trading.
I don’t use any standard staking plan. I change my stakes on a race by race basis and depending on how confident I am about the horse I am trading.
I only trade horses which I think can win each race.
I always back first and then lay.
I never green up (or red up).
I never cut losses short.

OK, any horse-racing trader reading this blog is probably shaking their head in disbelieve at the moment as I appear to break every golden rule of trading. I think the biggest thing is probably the fact I don’t use any software or any indication of trends such as weight of money or graph techniques.

So, what do I use when trading a race?

I only use 3 things. I use the normal Betfair interface, the Racing Post and the Oddschecker site.

I never trade a race without having a quick look at the RP card and a quick look at some of the form. I do mean a quick look though (i.e. 5 mins max in most cases).

I hadn’t looked at any races before I started trading on Saturday. I was chatting to Andrew on MSN and I asked if he had any potential fancies coming up and he mentioned Ashdown Express in the 3.40. It was currently 3.20pm, so I had 20 minutes to trade it if I wanted to.

I had a quick look at its form and the form of the favourites in the race. I decided that Ashdown would be an OK horse to trade as I could give it a chance.

I quickly checked the horse’s odds on Oddschecker. It was 10/1 with every bookmaker. I then looked at Betfair and brought up its graph to see what it had been trading at. The horse had barely moved from 12.5 all day, which is pretty standard for a 10/1 shot.

On Betfair, the horse was looking quite weak with lots of money available to back at 12.5 and 12, so it was likely to drift. I sat and watched for 5 minutes…..

It drifted to 13.5 and was still available at 10/1 with all bookmakers. I snapped up £50 at 13.5 when it became available. The horse then drifted to 11/1 with the bookmakers and looked very weak at 13.5 on Betfair. I thought about scratching the trade but I stuck with it. It then shortened to 10/1 again and went to 11.5 on Betfair, but I decided to stick with my initial bet.

I then quickly noticed the horse had drifted to 12/1 on Oddschecker with a couple of bookmakers and all hell broke loose on Betfair! Huge amounts appeared at 12.5 and 13 and off it went on a drift.

I backed £50 at 16, £100 at 16.5. I then noticed that it had been cut to 9/1 on oddschecker and I knew it was the wrong price on Betfair. I asked for another £200 at 16.5 and got £75 matched before £2k entered the market ahead of me at 16.

I then said to Andrew on MSN that I had struck the jackpot here as the £2k bet worked its way down snapping up all prices from about 16 to 11 before being fully matched at 10.5. I then knew I had to exit the bet quickly, so I put a lay at 11 for £300 and none of it got matched. I then jumped ahead of the market by about 4 ticks to get fully matched and the horse settled at about 13.5, so I got out at a decent price at 13.

I then weighed up the situation and decided I wanted to have £50 green on the field and the rest on my horse to win, so I laid off another £25 to give me the position in the picture shown in my previous post.

I decided to not lay off in running as I was happy with my £50 guaranteed profit and I would have been even better off if my horse had won!

Obviously, that was pretty much the perfect race for me and it’s never usually as straightforward as this to make money…...

Target met, mission accomplished!

Daily Profit £54.20

Quick post to say I met my profit target today and I can now say that I’ve had my best ever month on Betfair. Yipee……

I was very busy today but I was determined to try to get a little bit of time to trade to make my £50! Well, it got off to a dream start with a £49 win in the first race of the day (see picture below - I didn't lay a penny off in running and it ran really well and traded at just less than 5 for large sums!) and I basically started to have a bit of fun!

I had about 4 riskfree bets of £100+ today which meant I could have probably have won another £30+ but I went chasing a big win. I came close with two 3rds and if I had laid them off in running, that £30+ I gave up was more like £100+ but you know what, I don’t really care!

I’m now looking forward to starting next month now!

I’ll do a post in a couple of days with a review of the last month as it was a bit of a rollercoaster month for me but in the end, it’s all worked out well.

Unexpected bonus and it's as easy as ABC!

Daily Profit £64.32

Friday afternoons in the office after 4.30pm are usually a bit of a write-off for me as my mind wanders onto Saturday's racing!

Today, Andrew dropped me a note to see if I fancied any to trade for this afternoon. I'd have to trade on my Mobile though, so I needed to be sure they would run well or shorten pre-race.

I had a quick look at 3 races.

4.35 - I fancied Averoo. Horse was heavily backed pre-race giving me £57 riskfree bet for a £20 stake and the horse bolted in. Nice start!

4.45 - I fancied Icannshift. I put £10 on at 19, laid £10 off at 14 and the horse traded at below 3 in running before finishing 3rd. I didn't leave a low lay!

5.15 - I was really sweet on Shabahar. It went on a massive drift with 15 minutes to race time. I put £100 on at 8.4 and laid £100 at 7.2. Easy.

It then drifted to 11.5 before the off. I put another £20 on at 11.5 and laid of at 9.

I had £200 riskfree on it to win. The horse was very, very unlucky and finished 4th after not getting a run in the last 2f. I made £7 in running by leaving a large lay at 5.2 and I got partly matched.

Overall, 3 races, 3 riskfree bets and 3 horses that ran really well. Easy as ABC.....

To meet my target of of setting a new monthly P&L record, I'll only need to aim for £50 of profit tomorrow! Bring it on....

A fun night!

Daily Profit £7.64

Tonight was great fun and the fact I only made £7 is laughable. I traded 6 races before I settled down to watch the football and every race was quite exciting!

Even though I think I should have made more, in one sense, I could have made a loss tonight if a few hadn’t run so well, so I’ve not really got any complaints!

In the 6.45, I really fancied Roman Quintet. I backed £50 at 13.5 and then laughed as it drifted to 15. I backed £100 at 15 and I was already thinking I was in trouble in the first race of the evening. The horse shortened to about 12 a few minutes before the off though to give me £200 riskfree on it.

The horse ran really well and traded at 1.2 in running. The draw beat the horse in the end but I’ve no complaints. I won £30 on the race and would have pocketed an extra £100 if the horse had got up to win. Nice start!

In the 7.00, I was against the short priced fav and competition was thin on the ground. I was torn between Spume and Front Rank.

I plumped for Spume and my first bet was £10 at 16. I then followed it up with a further 16 £10 bets as it drifted in price! It actually reached 32 at some point which was laughable for a horse priced at 16/1 and one I fancied to run well.

Incidentally, the other horse, Front Rank, drifted from 16 to 32 also, as the market was dominated by 3 horses that were a short price, so whatever horse I traded, I was going to get in trouble!

I laid off a large chunk at the off and I effectively had about £60 win on my horse at 20 (it was trading at about 27) at the off.

I laid off £30 quite early as it was settled towards the front and travelled well. 3f out, it was travelling like a dream and I laid off at 4 for my remaining £30. I had a £560 riskfree bet on it and I was pretty confident it would get up to win. I left my last lay £200 at 2.08 and I think it got as low as 2.8 in the last furlong!

Overall, a break-even race but it could have been much worse if it ran badly or much better if it got up to win!

To make matters worse, the other horse I fancied won the race, so if I had decided to trade that, I would have been quids in as I would have been in the same mess at the off and would have taken some money in running!

The 7.15 was the least eventful race. I backed £10 at 15, £10 at 18 and it started at 25! I took the £20 in running, it got left in the stalls, was 100 after 1f, 1000 after 3f and finished tailed off last! £20 loss…..

The 7.25 at Fairyhouse just about summed up my evening! The market was 110% with 10 mins to the off and the fav was trading at 5.2. It was 4/1 having drifted from 7/2 and I was sure it would start at 6. I laid £100 at 5.2 and then watched as it shortened to 4.5 on Betfair. The market was about 115% and I’ve no idea what someone was playing at as it couldn’t start this low. Unfortunately, I didn’t have any enough money in my account and I was annoyed I didn’t have my £2k balance as I would have laid it all day at less than 5.

When it slowly climbed back to 5.2, I scratched the bet and moved on to the second favourite. It had drifted from 7 to 19 on Betfair. It was only 9/1 from 6/1 in the market, so I guessed it would shorten.

I backed £20 at 19 and £20 at 18. Laid off £20 at 16 at the off and £20 at 12 after 1f. I had a riskfree bet of about £170 and I left a lay in at 2.08 for £50.

The horse found trouble in running, finished fast and late to finish third and traded at 4.2 in running! Grrrr……..

It was proving to be an eventful evening but I wasn’t winning much!

It continued in the 7.30. I backed the Johnston horse for £100 at 5.8, laid off £100 at 4.8 and then left a lay in at 2.08 for £40. It traded at 2.8 after travelling very well (should have traded lower!) and faded to finish 3rd. Grrrrr….

I then left a £10 back to lay bet on Desiderio in the 7.45 with a couple of low lays and kept £2 of risk. I didn’t see the race as I had to pop out but it finished second beaten half a length at 12/1. I lost £2. The RP review said it led for most of the way and I must have had about £50 return for £2 risk on it since all my lays got matched!

Overall, quite an enjoyable evening where the profit amount is no where near a reflection of the night but at the end of the day, it’s another £7 added to my monthly profit!

Lastly, my last day of trading this month will be Saturday afternoon. Without putting the gun to my head, I’m £90 short of my best monthly total so far and it would make a great month an even better month if I could beat my best monthly total. So, I’ll be aiming for a £100 profit on Saturday afternoon……(I’ve probably jinxed myself now but I enjoy a challenge!)

Response to recent comments

As promised, here are my replies to some recent comments:

Nick

Thanks for your comment mate and I agree 100% with everything you say. I think I was in danger of getting too caught up in the term ‘riskfree’ and one thing about my particular strategy is that it is nowhere near riskfree!

I was also too caught up with the amounts I had been winning or losing in the last 2 weeks and not looking at the bigger picture. I’ve made £750 this month from trading in the evenings mostly and I was getting upset. I can be such a fool at times!

Dropping my bank is not really a big deal for me since I don’t use all of my bank to trade. Obviously, with a higher bank, I can use higher stakes when I’m entering my opening position and I’d have more money at the back of me if it goes wrong but this isn’t always a great thing for me.

Recently, I’ve been getting a bit carried away and have been getting in too deep on horses too early in the pre-race markets and having to use a large chunk of my bank to bail me out of my position for a smaller loss.

Dropping my bank seems sensible and as my confidence grows again, I will happily top up my Betfair account again if I find I need more money in there.

I also agree with your discipline point. I think there is a very thin line between discipline and risk aversion. I’m trying to edge towards more discipline but keep the same level of risk aversion I have as this is where the big money can be made I think. I’m not anywhere near this place yet though but I’ll get there one day I hope!

Thanks for your comment and I hope your trading is going well.

Stan

Hi there. I think you are correct in the sense that I’m going through a sticky patch but I’m not sure if trying to ‘ride the storm’ is always the correct course of action. Also, instead of increasing my time trading, I’m going to decrease my time on Betfair.

I think all of this recent self-doubt has come about due to the fact I haven’t had the proper time to trade on Betfair and I was trying to sneak a race here and a race there to keep the profit ticking along. I have now decided to only trade on Betfair when I can set aside an appropriate amount of time to trade and to stop pissing about on Betfair when I don’t have enough time.

I’ve covered the stake size issue in my reply to Nick above. Thanks for the comment and keep reading the blog!

Alistair

Hi Ali. Good to see you are still on an upward curve mate and long may it continue. I agree that I have maybe lost sight of the fact that I should expect losses with my strategy and I just need to ensure I keep the correct level of trading and gambling.

I did take your advice and withdrew some more profit from Betfair and it’s really pleasing knowing that I have withdrawn over £2k of profit now from Betfair. This has actually made a big difference to my financial position recently and whatever happens from now, I’m never going to lose on Betfair which is a nice feeling to have. The £2k has already been spent by me clearing up my overdraft and topping up my savings account!

Good luck with your future trading and once you switch to the win markets, I can give you a few pointers!

Steve

I think you hit the nail on the head mate! I think the problem I’ve been having is really a lack of time and nothing else and for this reason, I’ve decided to only trade on Betfair when I get the time.

I agree I have maybe lost focus a little bit recently when things weren’t going that great. Having withdrawn £2k of profit now and after seeing how much I’ve made this month even, I feel much better. I feel like I need to set myself little targets that are slightly more ambitious as I keep meeting my target every month too early and then I go off the rails a bit!

I like your comment about how bad you thought I’d do at the start. I’m sure that comment was shared by many as when I set out on this adventure, I had all the right tools and equipment to do well (IMO) but I was missing 2 things, a trading strategy and some experience!

To go from not having either of these 4 months ago to having a strategy and 4 months experience is pretty cool in my book and I think I have even exceeded my own expectations for where I’d be after 4 months.

I just hope I can continue to exceed my expectations in the future…..

"I'm packing it in!"

Daily Profit £111.47

Before I discuss tonight, I just want to say a massive thank you to everyone who has written a comment recently and in particular, for the 4 comments I received after my last post.

I’m going to reply to each of the comments tomorrow and I’ll do it on a post, so I’ll save my comments for then.

I managed to set aside an hour and a half to trade tonight and it’s been my first real night of trading for over a week. However, as you’ll tell by the daily profit and the title of the blog, tonight wasn’t a ‘normal’ trading night.

One thing I love about blogs is that people can write anything they want. I’d love to be able to say that I made over £100 profit tonight and it was a piece of cake but unfortunately, it wasn’t anything like that!

At 7.20pm tonight, Andrew came on MSN for a quick chat and my first words to him were “I’m packing it in.” I had traded 6 races, resulting in 4 losses and 2 break-even races and I was £83 down.

Taking into account the fact I’ve reduced my trading bank to £500, I had managed to lose over 15% of my new trading bank in 6 races and I was really, really down and annoyed with myself. I had backed 4 big drifters in these races and all 4 were not even in the first 3 home.

An example was in the first race at Newbury tonight. My opening play was £20 win at 14. My horse then started to drift. I ended up with £190 at average odds of 18. The horse was around 20 at the off and I laid off for a guaranteed loss of around £25 on the field and a small profit on my horse. The horse finished tailed off and I had managed to lose £25 in the first race.

I then had 2 break-even races before backing a horse at 12 which drifted to 28 at the off and this resulted in a £19 loss on the field again as my horse ran badly again.

2 more losses of around £20 meant that at 7.20pm, I was £83 down on the evening and thinking of stopping. If I had stopped then, I’m not confident I would have ever started again to be honest but I’m not too sure.

After a quick chat with Andrew and me bleating on about the fact I don’t know what’s wrong with my trading, I fancied the Henry Cecil horse in the 7.25pm and managed to do a quick trade to get me £19 riskfree on it. I didn’t lay a penny off and the horse won quite easily.

I then got a little riskfree bet on the Pipe hotpot and this gave me another £15 profit when it won.

Then came the defining moment of the night. It was 7.55 race at Newbury and I was very sweet on the Amanda Perrett horse. It had been backed from 20/1 to 4/1 on its debut but ran very badly. However, as I said to Andrew on MSN, horses from this stable are never expected to win first time out as a 3 year old and the fact it was well backed lets us know it is probably very decent.

It had been very steady at 12 all day and I asked for £50 at 13. I soon got matched and then sat and watched as it traded at 24! I put another £50 on at 22 and this meant I had £100 on at average odds of 17.

A horse was then withdrawn and after the Rule 4, I had £100 on at average odds of about 15. The horse was now trading at 17 and I was again looking at a substantial loss. Thankfully, others cottoned on the fact it was fancied last time and it was heavily backed down to around 12. I exited at 13 for a £190 riskfree bet at the off. I left a £30 lay at 2.5 and I won £145 as the horse romped home.

I had already said to Andrew I fancied one in the next and I managed to do a good trade to get a riskfree bet of £27 on it at the off. The horse was involved in a 2 horse battle about a mile from home and I managed to green up for a profit of £15 and I stopped there as I had to leave the house to pick up Denise.

In the space of 4 races over 40 minutes, I had picked 4 winners and turned an £83 loss into a £111 profit.

I joked with Andrew on MSN that I was going to write a blog post saying I had a 100% night and every trade I touched turned to gold and it was an easy £111 profit!

Clearly, I’ve got some major problems with my confidence at the moment and every trade appears to be turning against me. I was lucky tonight in the sense I picked 4 winners to bail me out of the brown stuff but I’m praying that I’ll push on from here.

Looking at my P&L tonight, I can see that I’ve past the £750 profit mark for the month which is absolutely amazing and I’m over the moon. It will be interesting when I look at the graph of my profit this month as I appeared to be heading for a £1,000 profit month quite easily before I went off the rails a bit but hopefully, I’m back on the straight and narrow now.

Thanks for all the support and I’ll reply to the recent comments tomorrow.

No time, no discipline, no patience and no point!

OK, a quick word on that race where I lost £27 on Saturday. I was really short of time all weekend to trade but I managed to get 10 minutes to look at that race.

5 minutes of form study allowed me to narrow the race down to 2 horses, Silver Seeker and Parchment. Due to their respective odds, I was always going to trade Parchment.

It was 12/1 on Oddschecker and 14.5 on Betfair with 10 minutes before the off. It then drifted to 15 on Betfair with £27 available to back. I asked for £100 on at 15 and got my £27 matched straight away. I then sat and watched as it shortened to 14. I wanted to back it again at 14 but I resisted the temptation. There was over £100 available at 14 and it did look like it was weak but as I keep saying to everyone, well handicapped horses don’t drift!

Within a few minutes, it was trading at 10 on Betfair and had shortened to 8/1 in the betting ring. I was proved right and could have easily closed out for a £150 riskfree bet on it.

Something then took over me….I got really, really annoyed I didn’t take the £100 at 14 when it was available and I decided I was going to go in play with the £27 bet. I knew the horse was a hold up horse and would be held up for a late run, but I wanted to gamble.

I then left in a lay in running at 8. I was watching the race and my horse was cantering at the back of the field and was trading at 20. I then started to get these crazy thoughts of backing in running (I never back in running) but resisted the temptation. I then sat and watched as my horse came cantering behind the leaders, causing me to cancel my lay at 8, the horse then traded at 5 before finishing very late after being giving a diabolical ride again (3 times in a row the horse has been ridden badly!).

So, after backing a well backed horse and watching my horse trade shorter in running and running very well to finish 4th, I still managed to lose my £27 stake and this really didn’t sit that well with me. What happened?

After giving it a bit of thought, I came up with 4 reasons (hence, the blog title!).

No Time

At the moment, I don’t have much spare time to trade and I’ve been trying to squeeze in the odd race here and there. One big problem with this strategy is that I’m always going to struggle to trade in the right frame of mind. With my trading strategy, exiting the bet at the right time is crucial and I feel that when I’m trading a single race in isolation, I don’t have the right frame of mind. I tend to want to gamble too much as I don’t see much point in winning a couple of pounds. I usually then over-trade my horse, don’t lay off early enough, take too much in running, try to lay off too low etc.

No Discipline

When I’m trading the odd race here and there, I really lack discipline with my trading and I end up just gambling on price movements. For example, that trade on Saturday was a very good trade. However, it became a bad trade when I lacked the necessary discipline to close out for my riskfree bet and I wanted to gamble too much.

One of the reasons that I’ve been fairly successful with my trading strategy is the fact that I do like a gamble. When a trade goes against me, if I feel I’m still in with a chance of turning it around, I’ll continue down my trading path and get myself in deeper.

However, when the trade goes with me, I need to close the trade and take my riskfree bet! Don’t gamble with winning trades…

No Patience

When I’m trading a single race or a few races, I’m always too eager to get my money on my horse I fancy no matter what the price is. I’ve been caught out a few times recently and I really need to stop it.

Generally, I keep trading every race at the moment as if I’m trading my last ever race and I need to stop this. I also trade every horse I back as if it is unbeatable and will be backed and of course, I’m not always correct! I need to be more patient….

No Point

What is the point in me trading the odd race here and there? Apart from winning a few quid, it doesn’t do me much good and it doesn’t do my trading confidence much good.

Therefore, I’ve made a conscious decision to stop trading the odd race here and there. If I can get an hour or two to trade the racing, I’ll do it and do it well. If I can’t find enough time, I’ll just give the racing a miss.

Due to my continued indiscipline when I’m trading, I’ve again made the decision to reduce my trading bank further.

I read other blogs and I’m amazed at the discipline that some people show. I’d point any potential trader in the direction of Ali across at http://betyourlife.blogspot.com/. The discipline that Ali shows amazes me at times and I wish I had half of the discipline that he has or Leon has.

Due to my indiscipline and also linked to the fact I’m not in the right frame of mind at the moment, I’m going to ring-fence some more of my profits and transfer it to my bank account. I’ll reduce my trading bank to £500 and start from there again.

I want to get to the stage where it starts to hurt me when I lose money from bad trades or indiscipline. Having lost £280 last week on a trade and £27 on Saturday, I feel reducing my bank is the way to go. If I continue to throw away profits due to me gambling too much, I’ll just reduce my bank further.

I’ve waited all my life to find a strategy that can earn me consistent profits from betting on horse-racing. I now appear to have found the strategy but due my gambling tendencies, poor indiscipline, lack of patience and lack of time, I’m struggling to be able to implement it properly at the moment.

Good things come to those who wait….(I keep telling myself this but I won’t listen!)

Lost the 'Eye Of The Tiger'

Daily Loss -£27.60

I don't want to write too much tonight but below is my P&L for the last 3 days. I've traded one race and managed to lose £27.60 on that race alone!

I'll expand on this post tomorrow and about where things are going from here.

Hope everyone had a good weekend of trading!

Off to watch the football!

Daily Profit £21.78

I traded 5 races tonight and never came close to picking a winner. I made 2 profits of just over £10 each by laying in running on 2 of my riskfree bets and I've called it a night.

Away to watch the football.

At some point soon, I'm planning on writing a blog post concerning how I trade a race as I have a had a few nice comments recently from people commenting on my strategy. I'd like to share a few thoughts on here with you all.

Confidence is returning...

Daily Profit £49.83

I managed to get 10 minutes to trade the final 2 races tonight.

I put £20 win on a horse in each race, watched it shorten by 4 points to get me riskfree at the off and then laid off in running as both ran prominently.

I thought I’d won £40 this afternoon by laying Bankable to place for a £20 liability on Betfair Mobile but I’d actually laid it for a £20 stake. I’ll need to be more careful as this was the first time I’d laid a horse on my mobile phone. This error cost me £20 which is slightly annoying but it’s still a profit.

Overall, a near £50 profit for 10 minutes work is nice and gives me a bit of confidence again. I deliberately reduced my stakes tonight to £20 wins and I made a nice profit, so it shows that you don’t need a large bank to make a nice profit.

I’ll hopefully get some time tomorrow night to trade a few races.

Good luck with your trading.

Where has my confidence gone?

Daily Profit £162.31

I think the only positive to come from tonight was the profit. I struggled with the trading aspect and I’ve lost my confidence at the moment.

I traded 7 races, having 2 decent profits (£150 and £40) and 2 losses of £20. Overall, it was hard work but it was great to be back in profit.

I think it’s no coincidence that I’m not feeling too comfortable with my trading at the same time as when I’m picking out large drifters to back in nearly every race!

Drifters are my main enemy on Betfair when I’m using my trading strategy and I need to avoid these like the plague. In 4 races, I backed a large drifter and the fact that 2 of them won makes little difference to me as I struggled to get riskfree on them before the race.

All I can do is keep plugging away and hopefully I’ll get my confidence back soon….

Gambled to the end......

Daily Profit £161.56

I thought I’d do a quick post tonight. I traded 2 horse races tonight and won £14.42. I was annoyed with the way I traded my first race back as I ‘bottled’ it when my horse went on a drift. I gave up backing it at 13 after having £200 win at average odds of 12. I laid off at 11 and it went off at 7 at the off.

If I had followed my instincts, I would have had over £1,000 riskfree on it and I would have won £100 at least. As it turned out, I managed to win £14. The other race had a small riskfree bet which I got quite easily but it ran poorly, so it was a break-even race.

I managed to win £147 from Tiger Woods winning the golf. As you’ll see from the photo below, I stayed true to my principles and gambled to the end. I was determined to stick with Rocco all day long and I didn’t lay off anything until he was 1.5, so I have no complaints.

I feel like it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster over the past week and I’m looking forward to getting back into a routine of trading a few races at night if possible.

Thanks for the recent comments by the way and it’s nice to see that some people are reading the blog and enjoying it.

Reduction in trading bank!

One thing that fascinates me is how gamblers cope with losing. I deliberately use the word gambler and not trader as there is a distinct difference between these two types of people. Even though I trade on Betfair, I think I fall into the gambler category.

On Saturday morning, I withdrew £1,216.44 from my Betfair account. This has left me with a balance of exactly £1,000 in my Betfair account.

The main reason for this course of action is simply due to the fact that I think my Betfair balance and thus trading bank has outgrown my trading skill and experience on Betfair at the moment. Friday night showed me that I’m still not that great a trader and I struggled to red up enough before the race. Obviously, there were enough opportunities to lay off more than I laid off but I chose to take £300+ in running with me.

I’m not saying that I regret this decision. I still think that was the correct course of action in that situation and I would do the same again. My issue is more to do with the fact I found myself in that situation. I had £500 on a horse trading at 40 on Betfair. No matter how much I fancied this horse to run well, ending up with £500 on it was farcical and I deserved to lose. (even allowing for the bad luck aspect)

I feel reducing my Betfair balance to £1,000 will not hinder me in the slightest as with my strategy, I don’t need a large trading bank. However, when I end up with £500 win on an outsider, there is something that’s not quite right.

Part of the issue is that as my bank has grown, my stake size has grown and it’s been all right up to now. In the past few weeks, I’ve made great strides on Betfair and my balance has grown at a remarkable rate. However, I’ve lost sight of the size of stakes I’m using and this issue needs to be addressed.

When I ended up with the £500 win on the horse, I was thinking to myself that this was only a 1/5 of my profits on Betfair. I’ve had this thought a few times recently when I’ve been trading using higher stakes on drifters and it has been worrying me.

One thing that has helped my trading over the past month has been the fact that I’ve been quite reckless in a sense whereby I’ve been using my larger trading bank to bail me out of trouble when I’ve been backing a drifter. I’ve continued to back a drifter more and more as I knew it would rebound in price since “I don’t back drifters who run badly!”

So far, I’ve been right every time but on Friday, I got it wrong. I feel this may affect my confidence as my strategy is built on the fact that you may need to continue to back drifters with confidence as they drift.

Well, on Friday I backed a drifter who ran badly and it has caused me to have a rethink of my strategy. Hence, I’m reducing my bank to £1,000 and starting again to some extent. As my bank grows now, I’ll be more experienced to deal with it and I’ll be more comfortable using higher stakes. Let’s see how I do!

On to some good news now…..

Since I made the decision to not trade any racing at the weekend, I decided to have a look at the US Open market on Saturday morning. For those who have been reading my blog for a while, you’ll remember I backed Trevor Immelman to win the US Masters a few months ago.

Well, on Saturday after looking at the odds on Betfair and the position of the players, I plumped for £10 win on Rocco Mediate at odds of 50 on Betfair.

This is how it looked as I went to bed last night:


















As you can see, that 16ft Putt by Woods on the final green has effectively cost me £300 profit but my man lives to fight another day. I was determined to not lay off too quickly in the final round and I was laying off £5-£10 every half hour or so. Obviously, Mediate only went odds on with 4 holes to play, so I could have bailed then but I held my nerve.

I suppose my one regret may be not greening up when Rocco was 1.3-1.4 before Woods putted his final shot but again, I don’t regret this decision.

Why not? Because I’m a gambler and not a fucking trader!

I’ll watch the golf tonight and I’m hoping that Mediate can do the impossible and win the 18 hole playoff but if he doesn’t, I’ll be happy with the £100 profit from Woods winning.

I’ll hopefully get some opportunities to trade the night racing this week, so I’ll let you know how it goes!

Isn't it Ironic!

Daily Loss £286.69

Before I discuss tonight, I wanted to explain the title of the post. There are 5 reasons why tonight’s large loss is highly ironic:

1). It was Friday the 13th today. I’ve managed to experience my largest ever loss in a race on Betfair and my largest ever loss in a day on Betfair. I’m probably the least superstitious person in the world but it makes me chuckle!
2). Last night was probably my best feeling I experienced on Betfair. With a trading bank of £50 and by trading 7 races, I won £87. Tonight, was probably the worst I’d felt on Betfair. Life is full of highs and lows!
3). I wrote a comment on another blog this morning about the fact I keep detailed records of how I do on Betfair and about how I have been beating my personal records quite consistently on Betfair. Tonight, I set a new record for my largest loss!
4). I added a few more links to my blog today to other blogs. One blog (Betfair Rookie) shows a guy lost £3k in his first week of trading. Even though it appears highly unlucky, I chuckled a little as I would have done the same a few months ago when I started out if I had started with the size of stakes that he is obviously using. I was going to comment that he should look to reduce his stakes for the time being until he gets more experienced. Maybe I should have taken some of my own advice!
5). This is probably the most ironic thing about this loss. I read a really good blog post this morning from Matt at Punt.com about how people value money on Betfair. I now have £2k in my Betfair account which is pure profit from my 3 months of trading but I wondered how I would feel if I lost a large chunk of this. I didn’t have to wait long to find out!

So how do I feel? A bit sickened to be honest as I’ve worked really hard to build my profit up and I managed to lose 10% of it on a race tonight. Obviously, I need to put this loss in perspective and it’s only my last week’s profit but it still hurts like mad. Hence, I know I don’t have an issue with Betfair money just being numbers as I wouldn’t feel so bad if I didn’t care about the money. I care alright!

OK, I don’t want to play the hard luck card too much here but it’s difficult to not feel like I was very, very unlucky tonight.

I looked in depth at the 7.25 at Goodwood today and figured that Tony James and Fleuret would both run well and would be overpriced on Betfair. I favoured Tony James though, but I would try to get riskfree bets on both of them if possible.

I backed Fleuret at 29 for £50, laid off at 23 for £50 and had £300 riskfree on it with about 15 minutes to the race. Piece of cake really as 29 was way too high a price. It started at the race at 14 on Betfair and traded below 3 in running.

Not sure if anyone traded this race or saw the race on TV but it turned into a bit of a nightmare for me trading Tony James. I was snapping up everything from 19 above from about 30 minutes to the race. It was a certainty to go off at 16-18 on Betfair and it would have been easy to get riskfree on it.

I had £120 on it at 19.5 on average and I had £300 queued at 20-22 on it. Everything was looking rosy and going to plan. Disaster then struck!

Someone matched everything from 20-25 on it and it was trading at 28. This all happened in 5 seconds and I knew something wasn’t right. I then quickly put the sound up on ATR and I saw Tony James trotting to the start. It then did the splits and nearly fell over. It looked quite nasty to be honest and my first reaction was to try to exit the bet. Unfortunately, everyone had the same idea and all it caused was a massive drift. The horse was now trading at 40 and I had £420 win at 21 or so.

I knew I was in trouble at this point in time. There was very little money to lay and no one wanted to back it. I then decided to put £100 on it at about 36 to push up my average odds a little and to hopefully help it shorten in price so I can exit for a loss.

It was slowly coming down in price and had reached about 28 when all of a sudden someone laid everything from 28 to 40 again. Shit!!!!!

I then heard on ATR that it had kicked another horse at the start and was looking very agitated. I now had £520 win on a horse who is trading at 40 and I’ve backed at average odds of 23 or so.

I heard on ATR that a horse had been withdrawn and I was praying it would be Tony James and I would have had a great escape……

No such luck. The horse withdrawn was the horse that Tony James had kicked and the Betfair market then got suspended. When it reopened, I quickly tried to lay and got about £100 laid at 25 but I then noticed my average odds backed at had dropped to 18 due to the Rule 4! Fucking great I thought……

Tony then went on a massive drift again as it wouldn’t go in the stalls and I had no way of exiting the bet. Everytime I tried to lay off £50, it caused a drift and I couldn’t get anything laid off. I could have redded up for about a £170 loss on the field (due to people asking for large odds and poor liquidity on the horse) but I decided against it. I don’t regret this decision as if Tony James had run well, I would have regretted the decision big time.

In running, I managed to lay off a little more at 25 and being honest, I was again slightly unlucky as it travelled well to a point but it seems that everyone was laying off in running and huge queues were everywhere. I then left my £280 lay at 4.8 to give me about £5k riskfree if it got matched as the only way I was getting out of this bet was if the horse won!

The horse had no luck in running and faded badly at the end of the race. Not surprising given the run up to the race!

Overall, a £280 loss on the race and a bit of a disaster for me. My confidence has taken a bit of a knock and I’m going to be having a few days away from Betfair now as I don’t want to trade on the back of a large loss as it may affect my future decisions too much. To trade using my strategy, you need “balls of steel” as Andrew keeps reminding me and at the moment, I don’t really feel up for it.

Good luck with your trading for the next few days!

An experiment within The Experiment.....

Daily Profit £87.30

I decided to have a bit of fun tonight and it’s paid off!

I knew this morning that I would get the opportunity to trade for a little while this evening but unfortunately, there were no flat race cards this evening, so I couldn’t adopt my usual trading strategy. However, even though I have very little knowledge of the NH game, I still feel like I have a unique trading strategy that will enable me to make a return on NH racing.

Due to my lack of confidence, I decided that I would limit myself to an exposure of £50 in any race. I would have quit if I lost £50 tonight, but I was prepared to gamble a little.

So, how would I do with a trading bank of £50?

Attached is my P&L from tonight.









As you can see, I traded 7 races and only suffered a £2 loss. I made over £10 profit in 2 races which is a 20% return on my trading bank and in one race, I made over £60 which is exceptional.

Obviously, to make £60 profit on a trade is quite impressive if I say so myself! I backed a horse at 15 for £50, laid off at 13 and had £100 riskfree. I then left in lays and the horse ran well and won quite easily. Hence, a £62 profit was achieved.

Overall, a profit of £87 from trading 7 races with a bank of £50 makes quite impressive reading.
Tomorrow, I get my latest exam results for my Professional qualification. I sat these exams in April and I remember discussing it on the blog. I’m hoping I passed!

5 minutes on Betfair

Daily Profit £96.10

I only managed to find time to trade 2 races tonight as I was busy doing stuff in the garden and watching the football on TV.

I had £280 riskfree on The Kiddykid in the 7.45 at Chester but it was drawn on the outside and had no chance, so I maybe should have taken £10 guaranteed profit on the race.

In the 9.15 race, I was very sweet on Thorny Mandate. Unfortunately, the horse was absolutely impossible to trade and at the off, I only had £100 riskfree if I laid off all of my stake. I decided to take a little in play to give me £300 riskfree as I laid off quite early in the race.

I then stupidly laid off for £30 profit at 6 and I laid a little more off at 2.08. The horse came very late and was involved in a photo. When I first saw it, like the guys on The Racing Channel, I thought it had been beat into 2nd, so I laid it in the photo finish to give me £96 on the field.

Annoyingly, mines just won by a whisker, so I wasted £30 by laying off in the photo.

Overall, the race was a bit of a nightmare as it was impossible to trade pre-race, impossible to lay in running and only just won in a photo.

However, a £96 profit for 3 minutes of trading is quite nice and will do me!

The Assassin

Daily Profit £76.16

Quick post about tonight. I managed to trade 5 races but I fancied a few in later races but I couldn’t trade them, so I just left win bets in 3 races which all lost. This resulted in a £23 loss but I can’t complain.

I was really pleased with the trade I carried out on Kasumi in the 8.20 at Ponte. I thought this would run well and I wanted a riskfree bet on it. However, it was very stable all night and it really was impossible to know if money was going to come for it or not.

I basically sat like an assassin watching the odds move during the course of the night and when it reached the odds I wanted (14.5), I managed to snap up £140 worth of backs. I then laid off £150 2 points lower to give me a £10 guaranteed profit and about £160 riskfree on Kasumi.

The horse managed to win quite well and I won £89 on the race.

Overall, another decent night for me where I would have broke the £100 mark quite easily if it wasn’t for the fact I couldn’t trade the final 3 races properly.

Only one winner all day........

Daily Profit £151.01

Today was a slightly frustrating day for me as I only managed to pick one winner all day and that was in the Derby! I backed New Approach beforehand as I guessed it would try to make all but it was held up and I was left with £20 win on it. I laid off far too much in running too quickly as I thought it would struggle to stay but a £64 profit on the race was nice.

The rest of the day was pretty mediocre for me, so to be able to post a £150 profit for the day is pretty good in my eyes.

I got off to a good start in the first race today with a £40 profit. I fancied Ramona Chase to run well and it was backed from 16 to 11 beforehand, so I had a nice riskfree on it. It ran really well and I was left with £140 return on it and managed to win £40 on the race, so it was a good start.

The next 5 races were a bit annoying as I managed to get a riskfree bet in every race but they didn’t run well apart from one and I messed up in that race!

In the big sprint at Epsom, I had £190 riskfree on Merlin’s Dancer. However, I wasn’t paying attention and I missed the fact the race had been run! I was still trading the horse when it came up suspended and I thought they were off but one was trading at 1.01! First time this has happened to me and Merlin’s finished 2nd, so it cost me a good few quid. I managed to have a laugh about it though with Andrew on MSN.

The only other race worth mentioning was the 7.20 at Newcastle where I fancied King Harson. I knew this would lead but I didn’t know the stalls were far side today, so King Harson and another one came up the stands side on their own. This basically ruined the King’s chances but the ironic thing was the fact it went so fast it managed to set the race up for the other horse racing with it, so it was slightly annoying!

The only good thing was the King was well backed and I had about £180 riskfree on it and it traded at 6, so I bailed for a £21 profit on the race and let the rest run.

Overall, one winner on the day and a profit of £150 shows that I traded quite well. I was fairly comfortable all day with my trading apart from one race where I had to dig myself out of a little hole with higher stakes, so it was a good day for me again.

I’ll hopefully get the chance to trade a race or two at night during the week, so I’ll update the blog if I do manage to trade.

16 minutes work on Betfair!

Daily Profit £108.47

The title of the post may be a minute out but you get the point!

I managed to trade 5 races today. Below is my P&L:

I was at work today and I wrote to Andrew to say that if he was having a bet, tell me which race and I'd have a look at the same race. Andrew said he fancied Unshakable in the 2.10 at Epsom.

I had a look at the race and said that it had a good chance but I fancy that Little White Lie would beat it. We joked about a virtual matchbet and due to the fact that I didn't want to miss out on a winner, I quickly went on my Mobile to put £5 on with Betfair. It was 17 on Betfair.

I didn't see the race but I won the matchbet by a head when Little White Lie just held on from Unshakable. We had picked a forecast at 12/1 and 11/1 between us! Incidentally, the Exacta paid £250, so it was a nice forecast to get!

After that success, I had a quick look at the 3.00 at Catterick. I decided it was between Windjammer and Rue Soleil. Windjammer was 7 and Rue was 12.5. I put £5 on Rue and not surprisingly, Windjammer led from start to finish and hosed up!

I was disapointed I picked a loser but as Andrew said, I can't get every race correct!

When I got in from work, I traded 3 races for about 5 minutes each. I had a riskfree bet of £165 on a horse in the 6.35 but it ran poorly and I didn't win a penny.

In the 6.55 at Bath, I backed Gracechurch at about 5.8 which was way too high on Betfair. I laid off at the off at 4.4 for about an £80 riskfree bet and it ran well and traded at 1.9 in running, so I laid off for a profit of £31.

I then had to pop out but I had a riskfree bet of £110 on Dragon Dancer in the 7.20 at Goodwood. I didn't see race and Andrew will no doubt tell me how it ran but I managed to win £1 on the race, so I got my sums wrong when I was laying off I guess.

Overall, a £108 profit on the day which is amazing again.

As you can probably tell, I'm having great fun at the moment on Betfair and making money appears to be the easiset thing in the world! Long may it last......

Most eventful night's trading yet.....

Daily Profit £5.71

I struggled with the title of the post tonight as I was going to call it "so close, yet so far" but I don't want this blog to turn in to a series of hard luck stories, so I decided against this title. What a night I have had! I only traded in 2 races tonight.

My trading on Betfair began at 11am today which is an early start for me considering I was at work!

I got an email from Andrew this morning asking me to look at the 6.45 at Sandown tonight. Clearly, he had found a horse he liked and wanted my opinion on the race. After 10 minutes, I wrote back "mate, I'm excited by a horse in this race but the draw will probably stuff it".

The horse was called Highland Warrior. Andrew then sent me an email to say that he had already backed it at 48 this morning. Within 2 minutes, I got on my mobile and asked for £50 at 34. I also told Craig in my work to back the horse each-way as it would run well.

Andrew had looked at another horse called Olimpo in the 8.55 at Sandown. I looked at the race and was against the horse in a big way! I laughed when he said it was 17 on Betfair and I said I would lay him 18!

So, what happened tonight then......

When I got in from work, I looked again at Highland Warrior. I had £6 matched at 34 and it was trading at around 27 on Betfair. I said to Andrew I believed it would start at 20 on Betfair and I decided that I would continue snapping up anything above 25 I could get without going too wild.

One hour on, I had backed the horse for £270 at average odds of 27. This was the biggest bet I had ever had on Betfair without laying a penny off. I had a return of over £6k on it. lol

I started to lay off with about 20 minutes to the race and I was hoping to lay off about 1-2 points lower. All of a sudden, a mountain of money came for the horse and every time I was putting in a lay of £50, it was being snapped up.

Well, I managed to lay off at around 24 and had a riskfree return of £820 on it. Amazingly, its odds dropped to 17 on Betfair at one stage and I could have had a £2k riskfree bet on it if I hadn't bottled it!

I then made the decision that I was letting this bet run. This probably shocks some traders reading this blog but I don't regret this decision. I've did this once in the past on a horse I really fancied and it finished 4th after trading low in running, but I had no regrets then either.

Not sure if anyone saw the race but the horse had no chance from drawn in stall 2. The fact it only got beat by a length in 2nd at 20/1 was down to an amazing ride by Mickey Fenton. If this had been drawn higher, it would have won as it liked. Amazingly, even though it came late and finished second, it never traded lower than 6 on Betfair, so I wouldn't have made too much in running (well maybe £100 I suppose!).

So, a break-even race even though I had £820 riskfree on a horse which finished 2nd!

It gets better in the last race.....

I noticed that Olimpo was quite well backed all night and at one point, it was trading at 11 on Betfair. I then got stuck into laying it. I have a bank of just less than £2k on Betfair at the moment, so I laid it for my whole bank at average odds of 12. It was about £160 I laid.

Anyway, it stuck at around the 12 mark for the hour before the race and I really did think about taking a small loss at one stage to get out of the bet. I decided to stick with my first instinct.....

With 10 minutes to go, Olimpo then went on a massive walk in the market and I just watched and watched as it drifted. I backed at 18 for my full £160. This meant I had a riskfree return of just less than £1k on it.

Amazingly, in one night, I had my 2 largest riskfree bets ever. I decided that I would try to get a decent return on Olimpo, so I was determined to lay off in running as I wasn't sure it would win. I laid off £6 at about 10 and I had numerous lays in at 2.08 to 8. I was aiming to win around £100 if it ran well and £300 if it won.

When I discussed this race with Andrew, I commented on the fact that pace was key to the race and one reason I was against Olimpo was the fact it was a 1m 4f horse running in a 1m 2f race.

As the race started, I could see they were crawling and there was no pace. Olimpo was sitting in 2nd place and was pulling hard. I knew it wouldn't suit the horse and was pleased to see the jockey take the lead. I then guessed what was coming..... the jockey gave it a kick in the stomach and it took off and took 4 lengths out of the field.

I just managed to cancel my lays before they got matched and its odds dropped from 12 to 5 in 1 second!

So, now I had a return of £900 on a horse trading at 5. However, I noticed the field were coming back to it and I had to get out. I quickly put in a £150 lay at 5 and it didn't get matched! I then laid £100 at 8 and it still didn't get matched......

I was screaming in frustration as it started to fade quickly. I then shouted "you idiot" to myself and I was so annoyed that I had cancelled my lays in running!

Looking back now, I did the right thing to cancel my lays as I thought it was the winner when it went 4 lengths clear. I would have been really annoyed if I hadn't cancelled my lays and it won.

My one error was trying to get £150 profit at 5 first instead of laying £100 at 8. I'm still learning!

Looking back, a profit of £5.71 is laughable on the evening but it was probably the most exciting evening's trading I can ever have.

If I had traded these bets in pre-race, I could have had £100 guaranteed but I've no regrets to be honest.

Next time.....

No complaints!

Daily Loss £35.00

Just a quick post to say I traded one race tonight. It was the 8.20 at Ripon and Vicious Warrior was my fancy here.

It proved very weak in the market and went on a bit of a walk in the market with 20 minutes to the off. I initially backed it at too low a price but I managed to dig myself out of the hole by continuing to back it and laying it lower.

At the off, I could have had around a £100 riskree return on it but I was fairly confident it would lead, so I was happy to take £50 in running. I laid £15 off fairly quickly as it led as I thought.

However, a large lay then appeared with about 5f to go and I decided to stay on the other side of it as I was still confident that it would shorten in running. Annoyingly, the large amount on the back side got snapped up and as the price was beginning to shorten towards my lay price, it came off the bridle and faded quickly.

Hence, a £35 loss on the race and on the night. I’ve no complaints when something like this occurs as I knew the risks when I let the £50 go in running.

I think it’s quite funny how recent success can affect your future decisions. A few weeks ago, I would always have traded in this bet for a £100 riskfree return if it won but my confidence is so high, I decided to aim for a £250 riskfree return in running.

This time, it didn’t pay off but doing this sort of thing will pay off in the long-run as long as I don’t go wild with the amounts I take in running. I’d limit myself to £50-£100 I think and it adds a slightly new dimension to my trading on these sorts of horses.

Disgusted with myself.....

Daily Profit £88.83

The profit above is from 1 race last night and 1 race tonight. As you can tell by the title, I'm not a happy bunny!

Last night, I selected 2 horses I wanted to back. These were Kyle and Polish Red. To cut a long story short, I missed Kyle as I went shopping after work and I missed the race by 10 minutes. Needless to say, it won at 13/2 and I was slightly annoyed.

I then traded Polish Red in the last race last night and managed to get £300 riskfree on it as it was heavily backed before drifting just before the off. Because I was annoyed about Kyle, I only traded £10 in as the race started and left £240 riskfree on the horse. The horse ran crap and I was left with a £10 profit on the night from picking a 13/2 winner and a horse that halved in price. Nightmare......

Today, I looked at 1 race tonight. The 7.50pm at Folkestone. I know that the rail is usually the place to be at Folkestone and I know the track favours front-runners, so Royal Storm was the easiest bet of all time to get riskfree on. This was guaranteed to set a fast pace and I fancied it to hold on.

When I got in from work, it was proving quite weak, so I didn't want to show my hand too early. It was 20/1 on Oddschecker and 20 on Betfair, so it was likely to drift.

I then sat and watched a few races. Every man and his dog knew that horses drawn against the fence was the place to be as that twat on ATR kept telling everyone! Why can't people keep their mouths shut on these racing channels...

Anyway, at 7.20, I started to trade the race. I snapped up £10 at 19.5 and then queued £300 at 20-22 as I wanted about £100-£200 bet on the horse. I then stupidly laid the favourite at Sedgfield for £5 as a bit of fun as I thought it was a bit of a monkey. I was right and it got turned over at 1.33.

I was so engrossed in watching that daft race, I missed the fact that there was a massive plunge on Royal Storm and all I had on it was £15 at 19.75. Idiot!!!!!!

By the time I stopped banging my desk in frustration, I saw it was 10 on Betfair. I then got very stubborn and refused to back it at 10. At 20, I wanted £200 on, at 10, I couldn't back it.

Guess what happened. Flys out the stalls, gets them all of the bridle apart from one horse. I then bail out at about 4.3 with 2f to go (it looked beat then and was getting swamped) for £78 or something and to top the whole night off, it gets a second wind in the final furlong and wins quite easily. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!

If I traded this properly, I could have had £200 on at 19, laid £200 off at 11, to leave me £1,600 riskfree. I would then have laid about £200 off as soon as it hit 5 on Betfair after 1f. I then would have left in a lay at 2.08 for £50 and overall, it would have been a profit of £700+ when it hosed home. Another costly lesson learnt by me!

I've now made it past the £2,000 profit mark on Betfair, so that's my first target for the month met now!

Review of May

I just wanted to write a quick comment concerning the past month. May was my first month back full-time at work and I only really got opportunities to trade on Betfair in the odd evening race and one day at the weekend.

Therefore, to be able to generate a profit of over £660 was amazing really and beats my target I set myself at the start of the month. I always like to set myself little targets to achieve and last month, my target was to get past the £1,500 profit total. Amazingly, I’m sitting just above the £1,900 mark, so I had a great month!

I’ve laughed at some of the recent comments I’ve had on the blog about how good I am at trading as until about 6 weeks ago, I was pretty hopeless at trading to tell the truth. Regular readers of the blog will know how much I struggled trying to scalp in the months of March and April and it was the correct decision by me to stop trying to scalp on Betfair.

In the middle of April, I took the decision to start trying to use my form knowledge to try to trade on Betfair for riskfree bets and it was probably the best decision I’ve made in my gambling life. The turnaround in my results really has amazed me and it gives me great hope for the future that I can make a decent earning from Betfair in the long-term.

My target for the next month is to continue to do as I have been doing for the past 6 weeks. I would like to try to trade a couple of races in the evening every couple of days if possible to help me keep my profit ticking along.

Thanks to everyone for the recent comments and if anyone has any questions about my strategy or how I’m doing, please leave a comment.