Thursday, 5 June 2008

Most eventful night's trading yet.....

Daily Profit £5.71

I struggled with the title of the post tonight as I was going to call it "so close, yet so far" but I don't want this blog to turn in to a series of hard luck stories, so I decided against this title. What a night I have had! I only traded in 2 races tonight.

My trading on Betfair began at 11am today which is an early start for me considering I was at work!

I got an email from Andrew this morning asking me to look at the 6.45 at Sandown tonight. Clearly, he had found a horse he liked and wanted my opinion on the race. After 10 minutes, I wrote back "mate, I'm excited by a horse in this race but the draw will probably stuff it".

The horse was called Highland Warrior. Andrew then sent me an email to say that he had already backed it at 48 this morning. Within 2 minutes, I got on my mobile and asked for £50 at 34. I also told Craig in my work to back the horse each-way as it would run well.

Andrew had looked at another horse called Olimpo in the 8.55 at Sandown. I looked at the race and was against the horse in a big way! I laughed when he said it was 17 on Betfair and I said I would lay him 18!

So, what happened tonight then......

When I got in from work, I looked again at Highland Warrior. I had £6 matched at 34 and it was trading at around 27 on Betfair. I said to Andrew I believed it would start at 20 on Betfair and I decided that I would continue snapping up anything above 25 I could get without going too wild.

One hour on, I had backed the horse for £270 at average odds of 27. This was the biggest bet I had ever had on Betfair without laying a penny off. I had a return of over £6k on it. lol

I started to lay off with about 20 minutes to the race and I was hoping to lay off about 1-2 points lower. All of a sudden, a mountain of money came for the horse and every time I was putting in a lay of £50, it was being snapped up.

Well, I managed to lay off at around 24 and had a riskfree return of £820 on it. Amazingly, its odds dropped to 17 on Betfair at one stage and I could have had a £2k riskfree bet on it if I hadn't bottled it!

I then made the decision that I was letting this bet run. This probably shocks some traders reading this blog but I don't regret this decision. I've did this once in the past on a horse I really fancied and it finished 4th after trading low in running, but I had no regrets then either.

Not sure if anyone saw the race but the horse had no chance from drawn in stall 2. The fact it only got beat by a length in 2nd at 20/1 was down to an amazing ride by Mickey Fenton. If this had been drawn higher, it would have won as it liked. Amazingly, even though it came late and finished second, it never traded lower than 6 on Betfair, so I wouldn't have made too much in running (well maybe £100 I suppose!).

So, a break-even race even though I had £820 riskfree on a horse which finished 2nd!

It gets better in the last race.....

I noticed that Olimpo was quite well backed all night and at one point, it was trading at 11 on Betfair. I then got stuck into laying it. I have a bank of just less than £2k on Betfair at the moment, so I laid it for my whole bank at average odds of 12. It was about £160 I laid.

Anyway, it stuck at around the 12 mark for the hour before the race and I really did think about taking a small loss at one stage to get out of the bet. I decided to stick with my first instinct.....

With 10 minutes to go, Olimpo then went on a massive walk in the market and I just watched and watched as it drifted. I backed at 18 for my full £160. This meant I had a riskfree return of just less than £1k on it.

Amazingly, in one night, I had my 2 largest riskfree bets ever. I decided that I would try to get a decent return on Olimpo, so I was determined to lay off in running as I wasn't sure it would win. I laid off £6 at about 10 and I had numerous lays in at 2.08 to 8. I was aiming to win around £100 if it ran well and £300 if it won.

When I discussed this race with Andrew, I commented on the fact that pace was key to the race and one reason I was against Olimpo was the fact it was a 1m 4f horse running in a 1m 2f race.

As the race started, I could see they were crawling and there was no pace. Olimpo was sitting in 2nd place and was pulling hard. I knew it wouldn't suit the horse and was pleased to see the jockey take the lead. I then guessed what was coming..... the jockey gave it a kick in the stomach and it took off and took 4 lengths out of the field.

I just managed to cancel my lays before they got matched and its odds dropped from 12 to 5 in 1 second!

So, now I had a return of £900 on a horse trading at 5. However, I noticed the field were coming back to it and I had to get out. I quickly put in a £150 lay at 5 and it didn't get matched! I then laid £100 at 8 and it still didn't get matched......

I was screaming in frustration as it started to fade quickly. I then shouted "you idiot" to myself and I was so annoyed that I had cancelled my lays in running!

Looking back now, I did the right thing to cancel my lays as I thought it was the winner when it went 4 lengths clear. I would have been really annoyed if I hadn't cancelled my lays and it won.

My one error was trying to get £150 profit at 5 first instead of laying £100 at 8. I'm still learning!

Looking back, a profit of £5.71 is laughable on the evening but it was probably the most exciting evening's trading I can ever have.

If I had traded these bets in pre-race, I could have had £100 guaranteed but I've no regrets to be honest.

Next time.....

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