Monday, 16 June 2008

Reduction in trading bank!

One thing that fascinates me is how gamblers cope with losing. I deliberately use the word gambler and not trader as there is a distinct difference between these two types of people. Even though I trade on Betfair, I think I fall into the gambler category.

On Saturday morning, I withdrew £1,216.44 from my Betfair account. This has left me with a balance of exactly £1,000 in my Betfair account.

The main reason for this course of action is simply due to the fact that I think my Betfair balance and thus trading bank has outgrown my trading skill and experience on Betfair at the moment. Friday night showed me that I’m still not that great a trader and I struggled to red up enough before the race. Obviously, there were enough opportunities to lay off more than I laid off but I chose to take £300+ in running with me.

I’m not saying that I regret this decision. I still think that was the correct course of action in that situation and I would do the same again. My issue is more to do with the fact I found myself in that situation. I had £500 on a horse trading at 40 on Betfair. No matter how much I fancied this horse to run well, ending up with £500 on it was farcical and I deserved to lose. (even allowing for the bad luck aspect)

I feel reducing my Betfair balance to £1,000 will not hinder me in the slightest as with my strategy, I don’t need a large trading bank. However, when I end up with £500 win on an outsider, there is something that’s not quite right.

Part of the issue is that as my bank has grown, my stake size has grown and it’s been all right up to now. In the past few weeks, I’ve made great strides on Betfair and my balance has grown at a remarkable rate. However, I’ve lost sight of the size of stakes I’m using and this issue needs to be addressed.

When I ended up with the £500 win on the horse, I was thinking to myself that this was only a 1/5 of my profits on Betfair. I’ve had this thought a few times recently when I’ve been trading using higher stakes on drifters and it has been worrying me.

One thing that has helped my trading over the past month has been the fact that I’ve been quite reckless in a sense whereby I’ve been using my larger trading bank to bail me out of trouble when I’ve been backing a drifter. I’ve continued to back a drifter more and more as I knew it would rebound in price since “I don’t back drifters who run badly!”

So far, I’ve been right every time but on Friday, I got it wrong. I feel this may affect my confidence as my strategy is built on the fact that you may need to continue to back drifters with confidence as they drift.

Well, on Friday I backed a drifter who ran badly and it has caused me to have a rethink of my strategy. Hence, I’m reducing my bank to £1,000 and starting again to some extent. As my bank grows now, I’ll be more experienced to deal with it and I’ll be more comfortable using higher stakes. Let’s see how I do!

On to some good news now…..

Since I made the decision to not trade any racing at the weekend, I decided to have a look at the US Open market on Saturday morning. For those who have been reading my blog for a while, you’ll remember I backed Trevor Immelman to win the US Masters a few months ago.

Well, on Saturday after looking at the odds on Betfair and the position of the players, I plumped for £10 win on Rocco Mediate at odds of 50 on Betfair.

This is how it looked as I went to bed last night:


















As you can see, that 16ft Putt by Woods on the final green has effectively cost me £300 profit but my man lives to fight another day. I was determined to not lay off too quickly in the final round and I was laying off £5-£10 every half hour or so. Obviously, Mediate only went odds on with 4 holes to play, so I could have bailed then but I held my nerve.

I suppose my one regret may be not greening up when Rocco was 1.3-1.4 before Woods putted his final shot but again, I don’t regret this decision.

Why not? Because I’m a gambler and not a fucking trader!

I’ll watch the golf tonight and I’m hoping that Mediate can do the impossible and win the 18 hole playoff but if he doesn’t, I’ll be happy with the £100 profit from Woods winning.

I’ll hopefully get some opportunities to trade the night racing this week, so I’ll let you know how it goes!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

a cracking blog to read and interesting to see how you play the horse racing markets. Good luck with the golf position.

Dremeber said...

Hi,

thx for adding your blog to the Sportsbetting blog listing.
Please be so kind to put a link back to this listing on your blog.

The link should be:
http://sportsbetting.onbloglist.com/index.php?id=Dando

Thx,
Dremeber