Monday, 7 April 2008

Another Golf Profit

Daily Profit £34.55

I’m not too sure what to make of this week’s golf profit. Obviously, I’m pleased to post up a profit and considering all of the profit was made from the same person (Charley Hoffman), I shouldn’t really complain but as usual, I’m not too pleased!

Firstly, I changed my strategy when selecting the golf players this week. Well, it wasn’t my selection strategy that changed it was my staking strategy. This week, a few of my fancies were quite short in price and I decided to bet a little bit more on these guys. I thought this was a well thought out strategy but it has ultimately backfired on me as I lost £24 on 4 guys alone, so it will be back to level stakes from now on.

Also, this was the first week I had backed many guys at less than 200 on Betfair. I will not be doing this again and will go back to looking for guys at the higher prices on Betfair.

I think the most annoying thing from this week was the fact that Johnson Wagner won. I know for most people reading this you will be saying to yourself “oh yeah!” but Wagner actually came 2nd top in my ratings for this week. I was put off by the fact he had missed the cut in 4 of his last 6 events though, so I chose to scratch him from my shortlist. He was trading at 500 at the start of the tournament.

This decision to not back Johnson has ultimately cost me £100+ as I would have laid off at the end of round one as he was joint top but that’s the way the cookie crumbles!

Another bad decision from me this week was to not follow my instincts. At the end of round one, the leaderboard had a strange look to it as some people shot great 1st round scores and some people were miles off the pace. The reason for this was simply because the morning starters had much of the better weather conditions and day 2 was going to be the same. Hence, anyone who shot a decent score on Thursday afternoon had done exceptionally well and would be able to push on during Friday morning.

At the end of round 1, only 2 players in the top 15 had played from afternoon tees. Who were they…….

Johnson Wagner and Charley Hoffman!

I noticed that Adam Scott was trading at about 2.5 at the end of round 1 and I knew that he was the wrong price. The market had not realised that he had played in the best of the weather on the first day and that the exploits of Johnson Wagner on day 1 were far greater than Adam Scott’s. Wagner was 5 times the prices of Adam Scott at the end of day 1 even though they both shot the same score.

What happened in round 2? Wagner got the best of the weather and shot a round of -3. Scott got the worst of the weather and shot +4. Hence, seven shots now separated them.

Clearly, my instincts were right and I should have laid Adam Scott at the end of round one for a fortune!

I need to start have more belief in myself and start following my instincts by backing them with some real money.........

Overall, I made a ROI this week of over 50%, so I can’t really complain.

This week’s event is the US Masters and as such, I’m not going to get involved too heavily. I feel much more confident in the regular US tour events as the field is bigger and more players have a chance to win. The Masters is full of has-beens who are well past it and full of players who are out of form. If Woods plays anywhere near his best he should win this but I may look to lay Woods at the beginning depending on what his price is in a couple of days.

I’ll post up my golf selections for this week on Wednesday night.

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