Ok, some people reading may think I’m pulling their leg but it has been a very strange last hour.
After I posted up my post-race analysis, I got a note from my virtual mate Andrew who said I was being too hard on myself and that I was trying too hard for the purposes of the blog. He said spending 2 hours to analyse a race was too long as I was thinking about it too much.
He said there was a race at Yarmouth tonight at 5.30 that was even more difficult to work out than the race at Thirsk but I should give it a go. However, he said to limit the time I spend on it.
Therefore, I spent 15 minutes tops on the race. I narrowed it down to 2 horses who jumped off the page at me as being well handicapped. I then checked on Betfair and the horses were trading at 11.5 and 16. I backed both and dropped Andrew a note to say I had backed them so he could follow me in if he wanted.
Before the off, both horses were very well backed and I traded both in for riskfree bets. Since I was very confident both would run well, I left in a couple lays at low prices.
To cut a long story short, the horses finished clear of the field in first and second and all of my lays were matched. I won a substantial amount on the race and Andrew also made a nice profit.
I feel a bit of a fraud considering I didn’t post up the selections on the blog and after doing so bad this afternoon. Therefore, I’ve decided to not count these winnings as part of The Experiment and to just withdraw the winnings from my Betfair account tonight. A nice bonus for the weekend!
Therefore, my current Betfair balance matches my blog again.
It’s safe to say I’ve got my confidence back again and I’m looking forward to my next race next week.
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4 comments:
I'll believe you Graeme. Honest! LOL!
Very good. I wish I know what to look for, but, as I don't know anything about horse racing it's hardly surprising that I don't.
As a little exercise, and without looking at the result, I pulled up the race card on the Racing Post site and tried to spot the two horses you mentioned. I hadn't a clue.
Even looking at the result didn't shed any light on it for me.
I think you are in a much stronger position with your knowledge of the sport than I can ever be, trying to beat the masses scalping the pre-race markets.
Well done mate.
Mate,
I feel an obligation to confirm your story - just in case the faith of any of your disciples is starting to waver !
It was indeed a great call - though I didn't realise the other horse had come second until I read your blog (I was focused on the one I'd backed - the winner !).
Just to clarify though - I wasn't saying that spending 2 hours on a race was bad. Clearly you are more likely to come up with the winner after 2 hours than you are 15 minutes. However, spending 2 hours on a race seems excessive - especially if you read it like you read that one ! Four front runners, the draw key and you missed the pace of the race angle - what exactly where you spending the 2 hours doing ! (only joking !!).
The bottom line is, it's not a science: you can examine every angle you could think of - but still miss the key one. I think you need to adopt the 80:20 rule and accept that you won't pick the winner of every race.
Give it a reasonable amount of time (say 15 mins) - and either back your selections (if you come up with any you feel strongly about) - or move on...
Andrew.
Hi Alistair.
Up until now, I've never really managed to make much from horse-racing. I treated it a bit of a joke to be honest and I didn't realise how much I actually know.
Through the blog, I've started to gain some discipline and understand the best way to use my knowledge.
As time progresses, I expect it can only get better but I don't want to get too carried away just yet!
Graeme
Andrew,
I send you a 75/1 forecast and all you noticed was the winner!!!!!
tut, tut....
Graeme
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