Saturday, 19 April 2008

Good or Bad Analysis? You decide...........

Daily Profit £1.90

Before I describe where it went wrong today, a quick mention on Blue Spinnaker which won this afternoon. I made my feelings clear on this horse a few days ago and in my eyes, it was 14lb well-in at its current handicap mark. As I expected, it cruised home this afternoon and won on the bridle.

This may surprise a few of you but I didn’t put a penny on it today. Considering I effectively lost £100 on this 2 days ago (my insurance bet beat it!), this may sound strange. The problem I had today was that I couldn’t find a danger to the horse. I had a quick look at the race and there were no potential improvers in the race. Therefore, I wouldn’t have had any insurance bet in case something happened to the favourite. I therefore decided to just sit and watch it win and it won as it liked.

As I said previously, I’m not too concerned with making huge profits at the moment but it was pleasing to be proved correct!

OK, on to the 3.40. What a nightmare race. Anyone who read my pre-race analysis could probably guess I didn’t have a clue what would win but since I’d spent 2 hours on the analysis, I thought I’d better have a bet!

I split the horses into 3 groups. I had 5 I didn’t think could win, 5 who could win but I didn’t want to back and 5 who I wanted to back as I thought they could win.

Last night, I left in a few backs at high prices and I got them matched. I got 3 £20 win bets matched at nice prices and I laid off all 3 at 3 points lower when I got in from work after lunch. This gave me a green £60 on 3 horses which was a nice position to start from.

I then backed the other 7 horses who I thought could win to put a red on the 5 horses who couldn’t win. I then backed the 2 horses again who I wanted to back. In summary, I ended up with greens of £40-£60 on 4 horses, 5 small greens and a £60 loss on 5 horses. On one horse, I had £150 return as I really fancied this horse.

This was perfect. Considering I was red £60 on 5 horses (1 priced at 10, and 4 at 26 and higher), I had worked myself a perfect position. This was easy I was thinking………….

So, the race starts. My £150 return horse (Bartercard) gets pulled up, not a great start.

At the 1f pole, it looks a disaster as Yes One is cruising and is trading at 1.02. Luckily, it drifts a little across the course and Spinning comes through late to win going away. Phew…….a £60 loss turned into a £2 profit!

Amazingly, another horse I said couldn’t win finished 3rd at 20/1 and it really was a great escape.

So, what went wrong?

Well, let’s look at the draw first. The first 7 home were drawn 8,16,15,7,9,11,13. Really strange considering they went around a left hand bend and low numbers held a massive advantage!

So, I watched the race again and listened to the commentary. Twice the commentator highlighted the fact they had gone off too fast in front from the low numbers. Basically, since it’s a left hand bend, the low numbers wanted to keep the advantage of being drawn low, so they had to beat the outside drawn horses to the bend.

I then went back to read through the comments of the horse I ruled out which should have won the race had it not drifted late in the race (Yes One):

‘Badly handicapped and not got the pace for 7f. Only hope is that they go off too fast in front.’

Another quick read of the racing post preview of the race highlights the fact that there are 4 confirmed front-runners in the race. Most of these were drawn low apart from King Harson which was drawn high.

I had a look again at the horse in 3rd. This had no chance on form yet managed to stay on late to get third.

Another quick run-through of the race confirms that the first 4 home came from well off the pace. They were in the last 6 at halfway yet filled the first 4 places.


Suddenly, I don’t feel too bad now. Yes, I got the race wrong but my comment about Yes One was spot on. Its only chance was if they went off too fast. They did!

Ok, on to the winner. Why did I not back Spinning for a profit?

It did make my final shortlist of 9 but I cut it from the list there. My comment was:

“On career high handicap mark and drawn 8. Had to ignore the 5 lengths winner last time to see this as well handicapped. Even though it is effectively an unpenalised winner of a 17 runner race with 5 lengths back to the 3rd, I’ll let it go this time. If this does win, The Osteopath who beat it last time must be improving fast! Won over 9f in the past also and against real 7f specialists here, so will need a fast pace. Lose it.”

2 reasons I cut it from the list. It was beaten 5 lengths last time in 2nd and it needs a fast pace as it has won over 9f in the past.

Let’s step back a second. My first thought about the winner was “All wins have come on softish ground when there has been plenty of pace in the race. Needs to be improving to defy this sort of mark as never looked like winning off this sort of mark before. Clearly improved at the backend of last season though and 1st run this season was impressive if you forget the winner. Would have won the race with 5 lengths back to the 3rd. Appeared to be an improved performance again and could improve past current mark this season.”

What one thing shines through? It needs a really fast pace………..

Therefore, the two horses in the race which would only run up to their form if there was a fast pace were the winner and second!

Obviously, part of this is hindsight which is a great thing but it was highlighted by me on the blog and the RP preview that there were many front-runners in the race. Ultimately, the front-runners have set the race up for the 1st and 2nd and for additional proof, they have set the race up for the 3rd horse to perform far above its past performances as it stayed on past beaten horses late on.

In summary, I maybe didn’t do as badly as it first looked. The key thing is, I was looking at a £60 loss but Spinning turned it into a £2 profit, so I can’t complain.

I’m having a break for a few days from the horse-racing but I’ll be back next week.

I’d be keen to hear any thoughts on the above. Do you buy into this or am I kidding myself?

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