Thursday, 10 April 2008

A new beginning.......

Daily Profit £38.72

Well, today was the first day of my new strategy for The Experiment. I don’t want to be too cocky as it’s only the start of this new strategy but today’s race went much to plan. I narrowed the field down to 3 yesterday and although I favoured April The Second over Ryan’s Future due to the fact it would be a better price, April played up badly in the preliminaries and went on a massive drift on Betfair. This suited me to some extent as it meant I could back Ryan’s Future in addition to my other 2 selections.

I don’t want to spend too long analysing the race but I suppose the best way to look at the result is to compare the result with my pre-race comments:

1st - Ryan’s Future - 2 great runs this year and will be amazed if it can’t win off this mark. This is maybe an easier race than the last 2 races and looks like a winner.

2nd – Gracechurch - Last run was in a hurdle race when only 12/1 against Ring The Boss when rated 122. This translates to a much higher flat rating if I take it literally and must be well handicapped. The absence is definitely a concern and may need this run back. Could have been injured? Has won 1st time out though, so not too worrying.

3rd – Merrymadcap - Usually runs in better class of races. Last 2 runs in Class 6 handicaps resulted in easy wins off 55 and 62. Now 65 but classiest horse in race. 8lb lower on turf than AW.

Basically, I narrowed the race down to 3 horses, the 1st, 2nd and 6th. However, I also thought Merrymadcap would run a good race but my doubts about it staying 1m 2f were spot on and it didn’t stay.

For anyone who didn’t see the race, April The Second ran a great race in 6th as it was very awkward leaving stalls and stayed on late to be nearest at the finish.

My exposure in the race was only £8. If Gracechurch had held on to win, my profit would have been £95. If April The Second had won, my profit was over £120. Obviously, the profit was skewed towards my 2 main fancies but I’m still happy with how the race went.

Obviously, I managed to do a few trades throughout the day on my selections which helped things but the key thing was I made a profit. In future, I’ll be using higher stakes than today and when I do stumble across a race that I call correctly, I’ll be looking to make 3 figure amounts as I’ll be willing to gamble a little more.

When I’m at work, I’m thinking of just using the Betfair SP function to guarantee that my bets gets matched but I’m still thinking through how this will work when I’m back at work.

Overall, a great start to my new adventure and I’m looking forward to analysing my next race.

Incidentally, my next race will be next week as I’m taking a few days off to study as I have an exam on Monday for my professional qualification.

I’ll post up my golf selections for this week later.

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