Wednesday, 23 April 2008

The Handicap King!

Daily Profit £118.28

Well, as the title says, I am definitely the handicap king! This may only be my opinion of course but I am good when I'm on the ball.

I only fully analysed 3 races today. However, my indiscipline got the better of me and between playing on MSN and watching the racing from Punchestown, I managed to fritter away a good few pound on meaningless races. Today was the first day when I felt my discipline slipping but when you win £123 on the first race you analyse, your concentration does tend to slip a bit. I'll let myself off this once.......

OK, the only race I spent 30 minutes on today was the first race from Folkestone. It was a 6f sprint for Apprentice riders and looked a bit of a nightmare. I narrowed the race down to 2 horses. Ali Bruce and Milton's Choice.

I expected Ali to be 40 or so and I expected Milton to be 25 on Betfair. Well, my eyes popped out my head when I saw Milton trading at 40 for £15. I snapped up all of the 40 for £15 and left in a lay at 24 for £15.

Unbelievably, I got this matched before the race started, so part one of the plan went like a dream.

I then left in numerous lays from 10 downwards in running. I shouldn't have bothered as the horse absolutely hacked up. I then had to laugh to myself as Matt Chapman quotes "no one would have every managed to pick that horse on all known form". Well mate, I did. I sent Andrew the race analysis in the morning and I also let Knocker (Sportstrading blog) know that I backed the horse before the off. Well, this resulted in a £123 profit in race 1 but I hadn't looked at any other races, so I should have stopped!

(Incidentally, Ali Bruce finished 3rd to stop me from getting a 25/1 and 20/1 forecast for good measure!)

I did manage to analyse 2 more races. I broke-even on one and then I made £20 profit on the 5.00 at Southwell. I was slightly unfortunate in this race as my horse traded at 1.73 in running before losing. I had a very large riskfree bet on it but I didn't trade in enough of it to make a substantial profit. Still, £20 profit would do.

So a £143 profit on 3 races I analysed and a £25 loss on races where I spent 2 minutes looking at the form and trying to bet.

Can you spot where I was going wrong all my life with horse-racing form? I've got to spend an appropriate amount of time on each race and stop betting on races where I haven't done enough research. It really is as simple as that!

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