The title of tonight’s post is slightly confusing but you’ll soon see why I’m a little bit annoyed.
Firstly, the feedback and advice I’ve had from every reader who has replied to last night’s post has been fantastic. Absolutely brilliant if I’m honest and I’m going to spend a good few days sifting through the emails and taking on board all of your comments. I couldn’t have asked for a better response and I’m amazed at the amount of nice people who are reading my blog. Thanks.
OK, on to today’s email. I spent over 2 hours of my time analysing 4 races last night. Two of my races were abandoned as Haydock was off, so I was left with my analysis of the two handicaps at Kempton.
In both races, I had the short-priced favourite down as the likely winner. I only mentioned these two horses in the email. I was struggling to see many negatives on either one to be honest but as I said in my email today, there is something inside of me that means I’ll never give these horses as a selection. I don’t see backing 2/1 shots in 16 runner handicaps as a way for us to make money in the long-run.
I’m liable to take some stick for this view but I’ll never change it. If readers want to back 2/1 shots in competitive handicaps, go and pay £100+ to a professional tipster every month. Don’t read my blog and don’t give me stick in an email when both of them win. Yeah, one reader wasn’t pleased I didn’t tip these two today……
Secondly, I received an abusive email straight after the second horse won from someone who had laid both the horses today. I’ll publish the email in a comment to this post if anyone wants me to but where the hell did it say in the email to lay both horses?
Answers on a postcard please.
I was very annoyed this morning that I had spent another couple of hours looking at form and analysing races to not be able to give out a tip today. It would have been very easy for me to tell everyone to back these two today but I didn’t think they would win 1 in 3 races. Hence, they weren’t 2/1 chances in my view pre-race.
Clearly, I’ve got that wrong and I’ll hold my hands up but let’s be honest here, they were 2/1 in 16 runner races. It was an easy mistake to make and I’ll make lots more of these errors in the future. The second one was lucky to get up to win anyway.
If people just want winners at any price, I’ll start tipping odds on shots in 2 horse races if there is a demand for this sort of thing. I’ll keep the 25/1 penalty kicks to myself and a few others who believe in what I’m trying to do on here.
Apologies for the slight rant tonight but I’m annoyed at myself for not telling everyone to back these two winners today and I don’t need an abusive email from someone who has done their bollocks trying to lay my selections. They have now been removed from the distribution list as was their wish.
Today, I gave up my day of trading to try to find some winners for tomorrow and annoyingly, there is a large chance that the meeting may be off. This could be the third day in a row when I’ve spent time looking at races only for them to be abandoned. I know this is just bad luck but it is a bit annoying as I only have one month to prove what I can do to everyone, so it means it’s another opportunity gone for me.
I hope some of you had a good day…….
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11 comments:
LMFAO, Some people are so stupid you say the horses have a very good chance of winning but because of the price basically they are not offering value although they prob should win, yet some numpty lays both of them. People like that clearly either have more money than sense or really need to learn to frickin read what is actually put just because you put you are not betting on them they are not lays, hell by the looks of it you even put the first one is ROCK SOLID and that the other one should win, yup that clearly looks like you told that person to lay them mate, I think maybe you should offer to pay his losses as clearly you are in the wrong lol.
Mike
Don't want to sound patronising, but did want to put a note of encouragement on here.
Your race reads are amazing, but there will be lots of times when you frustration gets the upper hand. You'll select a tip from the selections which doesn't win (like yesterday) or is too low a price for you to recommend it (like today). And how many times will the weather put paid to all that hard work?
I know there have been several times when I have been carefully following a tipster's advices but then missed one when I was busy and the damn thing comes in at 10/1+? Sod's law is rampant in this game.
All I would like to say is please don't be put off by idiots like today's illiterate layer. I haven't read any better race analyses than you offer; it's clearly what you're good at, and that means that - in the long term - things will work out!
Liked the irony, Mike. Nice one!
David
Cheers Mike.
It made me laugh when I read your comment mate. I've read the email a few times now and I don't see where I said they wouldn't win but I said on here about a week ago I'd stop mentioning horses names when I don't tip them as people hang on my every word.
I really should learn!
David,
Thanks for the comment and the emails. As you say, it's the long run that matters and I've said that myself on here many times in the past few months.
I was a bit down last night but I'm back to my usual optimistic self now. Although, if you read today's note, I'm not confident about these two today! lol
Graeme
Ah, sod 'em! Now they've requested their own removal from your list they're not even going to have the chance to win their money back! Talk about cutting off your tipster to spite your bank (or something!).
winner does not equal value Graeme i would rather back overpriced horses long term .Those 2 could have been 7/2 shots realistically and if we get only 2/1 about them then we will lose simple as that. Stick to what you do best and let the detractors go elsewhere
On this form line, Bollin can't beat this either. At around the 2/1 mark, it's an obvious lay although I'd never lay a horse!
Standby for the flak :)
Sometimes you're your own worst enemy Graeme, just stick to what you know and post your backs. Others can make their own minds up from any comments you post
lol...
I know anonymous. I'll take the flak but the formbook lied!
Taught me one thing though, any idea of a laying service is out the window!!!
It was a short priced fav though, not the worst mistake I've ever made if I'm honest!!!
G
You need to stick to what you know best Graeme rather than switching strategies every five minutes to take on board others comments about what services you should offer. That was kind of your downfall with the trading switching at every little blip.
You need to remember that the blog readers are not the likely type to take up tipping services anyway and most people paying for tips are really only interested in the bottom line of whether you produce a profit or not.
You've only been sending the tips for around 5 days so now's not the time to start jigging things around. Just continue as you are as I'm sure a lot of opportunities will arise ths month. Remember good things come to those who wait.
I'm not sure what sort of idiots are on the distribution list for the tips but give the guy a break.
Today, how anyone lost money on Betfair on the first race is beyond me. His horse started at 23, traded at 2.6 and finished second.
He suggested a possible lay on the fav and it started around 3 and it won.
How the hell people can't make money from that I've no idea.
The second one clearly ran below form and so I only made a small profit from both races combined.
Will readers get off the guy's back and stop seeing him as some sort of fu**ing Guru. If I was him, I'd stop the trial immediately and tell all the free loaders to get the f*ck out of here.
Had to get that off my chest today.
Steve
Apologies for the strong tone but I feel the criticism has been way over the top recently.
hi,
I was the poster that said you should calculate to sp, and i am delighted that your p/l has this on your page.
the write ups are great, and i for one am someone that uses tipsters and i feel a whole lot better when i know why we are backing a horse, as opposed to a tipster just saying 3.50 new approach 2pts win. if the horse runs poorly i then think hy the fuck have they gone for that.
if there are strong form reasons for backing it, then it is far more easier to take a loser.
just my thoughts,
j
Anthony, cheers for the support mate. I know I won't please everyone but I’m trying to!
Bettingbiz, agree 100% mate.
Anonymous, that is exactly the sort of comment that I don’t need on here after a race mate to be honest. Yes, I said that the favourite couldn’t beat my horse on the form line. I stand by that view. What I didn’t factor in was the fact the fav is improving fast. Did you know that? My horse was 24 on Betfair and the fav was 3. It’s not the end of the world to read that form line wrong IMO…..
Everyone knows I don’t lay horses and would never lay a horse as I don’t back at odds-on, so I’m not taking flak for saying a 3 shot can’t beat a 24 shot….
Funnily enough, haven’t had one bit of flak for it apart from your comment. Lots of people made money on Sphinx though from what I hear……Sounds like you didn’t?
Steve, I take on board your comment. The only reason that comment made its way into my email (I’ve never said it in any other email!) is that some readers have suggested I incorporate that comment on short-priced favourites which are held on the form book. Some have laid favourites in many races before and that’s the first one that has won. A bit unlucky for me that I spelt it out so clearly but sums up this month for me!
Steve, you need to take a deep breath make and relax! I agree with what you say in parts but calling people idiots is stepping across the line IMO…..
I know you are doing well this month but not everyone is using your strategy, so I don’t want to be too critical of people who aren’t doing as well mate.
Thanks for the support and encouragement though and I do agree the criticism is unfair at times but it is a public blog I’m afraid and I can take it on the chin!
J, I’ll track SP as you suggested. As you say, this is probably the true test. Glad you like the analysis also.
Graeme
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