Saturday, 30 August 2008

And now, the end is near…

But before I say my final farewells, a quick review of today’s races…

In truth, as with last Saturday, today’s races provided a fair reflection of the horses I pick and how I tend do…

In the first at Sandown I was right to oppose the 2 favourites - though I picked the wrong horse to do so with in Raymi Coya...
The second race at Sandown almost perfectly encapsulated my methodology… As I’d said, I felt that Patrician’s Glory was over priced at around 30. This was pure speculation on my behalf – but the point is, nobody could be sure how good the opposition was, so speculation in this kind of race is all that you can use. Whilst Patrician’s ran a great race – and looked like wining inside the final furlong – as has often been the case for me in the past, his run just petered out and he eventually finished third. However, all of my IR lays were matched (it traded at 1.26) and though I would have won a few more pounds if he had got up, I still made a good profit on the race…

Over at Chester: Whilst I’ve had horses brought down over the jumps, Speed Gifted will go down as my first ever ‘BD’ on the flat ! In truth, I don’t think it would have won regardless. To my eyes, it just wasn’t handling the tack (as I said, Chester is a unique course). Interestingly, the race was won by the only other runner in the race with group pretensions – Red Gala.
I didn’t actually have a bet in the next race - I couldn’t decide between the 2/3 on my short-list at the prices available. As it turned out, Thebes ran a really good race, trading close to even money, but seemed to get unbalanced whilst Celtic Sultan showed speed – but faded. Pawwan never really featured.

The Newton Abbot feature was probably the most interesting race of the day for me –as it high-lighted two things: why I prefer NH races to bet in; and how I can get into a mess backing drifters !
As I mentioned, I had narrowed the race down to 3. In truth, I was never going to back Enlightenment – as it was strong all day and too short a price; I had quite a strong preference for Full House over Always Waining – so when it got to 20, I struck my first bet. I went in again at 24; and then doubled my stakes at 28. I doubled again at 34 ! I was therefore left with a bit of a hole, when it nearly refused to race and started 10 lengths behind the field ! However, one of the beauties of NH for me, is that for a few minutes, you can back and lay IR. A couple more judicious backs on Full House (one of my failings is that I find it very difficult to accept that I ever back the ‘wrong’ horse) and a few lays, actually saw me in the position with about a mile to run, where I had over £100 green on Full House and no risk on the rest of the field. Quite a recovery, even if I do say so myself !
In the end, Full House not surprisingly faded – and Always Waining did the best of my selections in fourth. The favourite did indeed get beaten as predicted – though I admit that this looked unlikely jumping the last…!

So there you have it – the end of my tenure. I believe that Graeme is flying back in tonight and I’m sure he’ll be back on the blog first thing tomorrow in preparation for the tipping challenge he’s set himself during September.

I hope that most of you have enjoyed my time in the chair – and taken it in the spirit it was intended. I acknowledge that the delivery of some of my posts hasn’t been spot on – but I have had to compose most of them under severe time pressures and hopefully the content has offset any unintentional dodgey tone…
As I’ve said before, I have derived a lot of benefit from blogs – this one in particular – over the past year or so. I know it sounds a bit cheesy – but my intention this week has purely been to try and give something back. If just one or two readers have managed to glean a few ideas or different angles, then I will feel that the time I have spent has been worthwhile.
Be lucky !
Andrew.

3 comments:

Cassini said...

palace95Thanks Andrew - you did a great job. Who's Graeme...?

Steve said...

Was a really enjoyable read all week Andrew.

Graeme has a lot to live up to now.

Steve

Anonymous said...

Good read Andrew, can't help thinking your missing a trick with your edge but I suppose it's hard to comment without knowing your exact betting method, Good Luck Nick.