Make no bones about today, it was a disaster. As usual though, I’ve learnt a few more things about how to ensure I do better, so here’s hoping it all falls into place for next month.
I have just read a comment from Mark Iverson on my last post and it’s a great question, so I’ll deal with that first. I also talked to Andrew today about this, so it’s cool that Mark asked that particular question.
Firstly, one of my edges is the fact I can find value. Today, I didn’t have a single bet all day. Not one! This maybe sounds a bit strange considering the time I spent looking at races but when I saw the races priced up this morning, there was no value apparent in any of my selections.
In particular, when I selected Jake The Snake and Wadnagin as my two selections in the tipster comp, I had them as 11/2 and 10/1 shots. What the hell Jake was doing starting at 11/4 I’ve no idea (it was heavily backed pre-race I believe) and Wadnagin went off at 7/1 after drifting from an opening show of 11/2.
Clearly, others had found the same sort of things in the formbook that I found and acted on it. However, it actually turned my bets into poor value bets and that’s why I wouldn’t have a bet on them.
Mark’s question was more to do with “why don’t I lay horses which represent bad value?” As I’ve said before on here, I don’t like laying horses as it effectively means I’m backing the whole field. However, I do like to Dutch horses and therefore, this would be a strategy in these sorts of races.
I actually think Mark’s point is a great point. In future, I’d like to look more into pricing up races and then trading from there. At the moment, I’m just happy to not back horses when I feel they don’t represent value. However, until I spend more time on this pricing aspect, I’m happy to just bet on the horses which represent value and pass on the ones which don’t.
One thing I’m keen on doing next month is analysing each race after the event and deciding if I could have picked the winner. As I said yesterday, I think that 4 in 5 races can be read successfully by me. My selection criteria is very simple for me to follow, so after the event, I can still tell if I could have picked the winner or not.
2.15 Wolv – Probably sums up my whole story above. The winner was on the shortlist but got dropped since it was a likely favourite. I plumped for an outsider (or so I thought). The winner was 15/2 and my outsider was 6/1. School Boy Error.
3.00 Ling – I liked 2 here although I discounted Spic N Span for being ungenuine. I was proved right as it traded 1.3 IR and didn’t go through with its effort. My selection ran like a hairy goat! No complaints here though as I wouldn’t have selected the winner.
3.15 Wolv – I said I would be surprised if one of my two didn’t win and I am surprised to be honest. They finished 2nd and 3rd. Annoyingly, the winner couldn’t win this race on the form book, so I would never have picked the winner.
3.30 Ling – I put up Acquiffer as a value bet here but it only started at 10/1 which wasn’t much value in my opinion. It ran its best race of the season and should be watched over 6f here again. The winner was on my shortlist, so I could have selected this one.
4.30 Ling – The most annoying thing is the fact the winner (14/1) was on the shortlist. In addition, Jake The Snake went off far too low a price in my opinion and was a definite lay at 11/4.
The other one I liked was Wavertree Warrior which ran a great race to be 4th at 14/1.
4.45 Wolv – The best handicapped horse in the race won this easily after being well backed. The horse was a massive punt pre-race and it went off at far too short a price in my opinion. However, it won well. I plumped for the other one as I thought it would be better value....
Wadnagin was too short a price and was never in the race, finishing in midfield again!
5.00 Ling – I liked 3 here and got the winner at 9/2. Hence, it was possible to select the winner.
6.50 Yarm – Bartercard finished tailed off after pulling far too hard on ground too soft and I would never have picked the winner given 10 attempts.
8.00 Wind – Another disappointing race to be honest and both selections ran below form. Again, the winner wasn’t one that I could have picked, so no complaints.
Overall, in 9 races analysed, I think I could only have picked the winner in 5 races. This is way below the 80% amount races I think I can read, so it has to go down as difficult day for me.
In the 5 races where I could have selected a winner, I only selected 1 winner at 9/2. Even then, that’s a bit dubious as I narrowed it down to 3 horses, so it has to go down as a very poor day!
I’m going to have to be much more careful when selecting my selections. It’s no good plumping for a horse which is then priced up too low IMO. I need to facor in the odds when I choose my selections. Next month, I won't issue any selections without quoting the odds that we should be looking for, so that should deal with this problem.
Here’s hoping tomorrow brings better things……
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5 comments:
Mate that`s not a disaster. Now *I* could tell of some real disasters...
Don't be downhearted at not picking a winner , Graeme. It's all a learning curve and just like last months loss was a wake up call any early success may have proved a hinderance in the long run.
I agree with the comments re:value as deep down we all know that's the only way we'll win long term. Picking winners may do the ego the world of good but it's the prices that determine if we'll end up in profit.
You should start doing your own tissues, no matter how rough, at this stage as it'll help you hone those skills for later on. Might be an idea to only post your assessments of the races you're sticking in the comp as well. I can see it's tempting to post thoughts on all races you've looked at and I'm sure my suggestion probably won't go down too well with your readers but the scattergun effect of sticking up loads of races will always give you a failsafe that some are bound to win even though you haven't selected them as bets.
I'm sure it's only a matter of time before you hit the winners but sticking in the discarded races will come across as the usual dodgy tipster mentality of putting up enough races as one's bound to win. If you can't select the winner or prepared to dutch a couple then why post them. You need to get that professional mentality from the start and live or die by the selections you make and just learn from the ones you've discarded.
Cheers Markomar.
Steve,
I think you make some excellent points mate and I'll take a few on board.
I agree the value thing is key. In many aspects, that's the edge I have and I need to use it. One thing I'm going to be doing next month is working a day in advance. Hence, I'll do Monday's form on Sunday for example.
The drawback with this though is I have no reliable tissue. I sort of roughly work out what odds it should be to make it a bet and I need to be sure I stick to it. Yesterday, I was really disappointed when I checked oddschecker in the morning about the prices of some of mines and it was summed up in the first race. The reason I didn’t select the winner was due to the fact it was 4/1 in the tissue. It drifted wildly pre-race and won at 13/2. My outsider which I priced up at 14/1 was 6/1 at the off and it just about summed up my day.
I think I’ll only post up analysis of races where I’m selecting a horse. I got a bit carried away on Sunday writing up the analysis (I make a habit of this sometimes as I’m sure you’ve seen!), and I just struggled to stop writing.
In future, I’ll just look at one race or two races I analyse and I’ll post up a detailed analysis of the races.
I’m not trying to kid anyone with a scattergun approach. I didn’t expect half of them horses to win I selected yesterday (sort of said that in the analysis) but I expected most of them to be higher prices and most of them to run better than they did.
Like you say, I need to develop a much more professional approach to this. As you know, I’m a total rookie at this but that will only get me some slack for so long!
Thanks for the support. I know in the long-run everything will be fine and I’ll do OK but it’s just a scary thought thinking that I didn’t pick a winner in most of them races!
Graeme
am i missing something here ,surely a winner at any price is the only true value ,unless u back crazy odds eachway. once you pick a few winners the value will come get on a roll first
Anonymous,
I agree with you that any winner constitutes value but in the long-run, you will only make money at the game by backing selections which are value.
I define value as having a greater chance than their odds indicate.
It's no good picking a 10/1 winner which should have been a 20/1 chance. In the long run, your 10/1 winner will only win once in 20 races.
Next month, I'll obviously be looking for winners but I also need to find value. I don't want to fluke a 10/1 winner which should have only won once in 20 races......
Graeme
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