If yesterday was my first day of training to be a tipster and I trained like Rocky in Rocky II, then today I must have been like Rocky in Rocky III when he was put on his arse by Clubber Lang (Mr T)!
I was sharing some views with Andrew this morning and I basically came to the conclusion I didn’t fancy anything to win today. I had looked at 5 races and even though I fancied a few, every one had a really good reason to not back it, so I didn’t have a bet at all.
I then got a comment from Stan on a previous post asking me to post up my views for today and after discussing it with Andrew, we decided it wouldn’t do any harm!
I quickly drafted a post with my earlier thoughts I’d shared with Andrew and I included Andrew’s thoughts on a couple of races. I tried to make it clear in the post that I didn’t think any of these were potential bets as they each had a very good reason for not backing them!
Even so, I would have been disappointed if they didn’t perform as I said they would.
After looking at the results tonight, here are my conclusions from day 2 of tipster training:
2.10 – Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “The ground was probably too testing for Parchment”. Not much else to say really. Read my last post…..
3.15 – Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Vicious Warrior, a proven mudlark, exposed any weaknesses in his rivals, only to be worried out of it by the winner late on.” Traded at 1.06 IR I believe, so not much more to add. Read my last post…..
3.25 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Salient, who is now 2lb below his last winning mark, took the field along but the attentions of the winner meant he did not get a soft lead and he could not respond when the challenges were delivered.” Not much else to say really. Read my last post…..
5.00 – Looks difficult to get too excited here! Didn’t even get a comment in the Racing Post review of the race. lol “Always towards rear”.
However, I said it was running into form. 2 runs ago, it was 5th beaten 4 lengths. Guess which horse was second in the race? Yip, Uhuru Peak which went on to win this race at 22/1. Therefore, I’d argue that Piano Man ran way below form here and is actually a very well handicapped horse at the moment as I suggested.
When it runs next time over 10f, it should be at least 20/1 off the back of this and it has started at average odds of 16/1 over the last 5 runs. Let’s keep an eye out for it next time then…….
5.20 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Urban Warrior showed a bit more with his favoured cut in the ground but the handicapper is reluctant to cut him any slack.” Finally, I appear to have read a horse wrong. Or have I?
The horse finished 5th beaten 3 lengths, so it ran OK IMO. However, as I said in the last post, I don’t think it enjoys cut in the ground as much as the RP thinks. Secondly, the analyst is trying to imply that it is not well handicapped. IMO, the fact it was 2nd, 6 lengths clear last time to a subsequent two times winner implies that it is on a very good mark. Therefore, it didn’t get beat in this race due to being badly handicapped. It either run below form or it didn’t handle the ground. It's nice to know that I know more than that analyst......
3.50 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Going Time, up in trip, was well beaten.” You get the feeling that someone knew more than Andrew here. The horse started at 12/1 and at 16 on Betfair. Andrew thought it was value at 7/1 and 8.2 on BF, so someone knew more than him. The horse finished tailed off last!
4.15 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Wise Dennis was another unable to get into it from the back.” Andrew said this started at 20+ on Betfair, so you get the impression again that someone knew more than him. It finished 2nd last.
Overall, I feel like today was very beneficial. Even though I effectively picked 5 losers, I felt like I read most races correctly. On a different day under their optimum conditions, some of my selections would have won without a doubt. One of the key things that amateur form readers should take from today is the fact that to pick winners consistently, you need to find horses with everything in their favour.
Lots of people may have noticed these horses I selected above for the reasons I stated but importantly, I also managed to recognise that every one had a barrier to overcome and therefore, they weren’t worth a bet. Ultimately, it’s this skill that will separate me from other tipsters in the long-run.
Difficult to learn much from Andrew’s selections today. As he said in a comment to Steve, he only operates at the extremes of the spectrum!!!!!
If readers found today’s posts beneficial, I may do the same posts tomorrow if I get the time. After all, I have a Champion Tipster competition starting on Monday! I need to get into top shape…….