Thursday, 14 August 2008

KO'd by Clubber Lang....

If yesterday was my first day of training to be a tipster and I trained like Rocky in Rocky II, then today I must have been like Rocky in Rocky III when he was put on his arse by Clubber Lang (Mr T)!

I was sharing some views with Andrew this morning and I basically came to the conclusion I didn’t fancy anything to win today. I had looked at 5 races and even though I fancied a few, every one had a really good reason to not back it, so I didn’t have a bet at all.

I then got a comment from Stan on a previous post asking me to post up my views for today and after discussing it with Andrew, we decided it wouldn’t do any harm!

I quickly drafted a post with my earlier thoughts I’d shared with Andrew and I included Andrew’s thoughts on a couple of races. I tried to make it clear in the post that I didn’t think any of these were potential bets as they each had a very good reason for not backing them!

Even so, I would have been disappointed if they didn’t perform as I said they would.

After looking at the results tonight, here are my conclusions from day 2 of tipster training:

GD Selections

2.10 – Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “The ground was probably too testing for Parchment”. Not much else to say really. Read my last post…..

3.15 – Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Vicious Warrior, a proven mudlark, exposed any weaknesses in his rivals, only to be worried out of it by the winner late on.” Traded at 1.06 IR I believe, so not much more to add. Read my last post…..

3.25 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Salient, who is now 2lb below his last winning mark, took the field along but the attentions of the winner meant he did not get a soft lead and he could not respond when the challenges were delivered.” Not much else to say really. Read my last post…..

5.00 – Looks difficult to get too excited here! Didn’t even get a comment in the Racing Post review of the race. lol “Always towards rear”.

However, I said it was running into form. 2 runs ago, it was 5th beaten 4 lengths. Guess which horse was second in the race? Yip, Uhuru Peak which went on to win this race at 22/1. Therefore, I’d argue that Piano Man ran way below form here and is actually a very well handicapped horse at the moment as I suggested.

When it runs next time over 10f, it should be at least 20/1 off the back of this and it has started at average odds of 16/1 over the last 5 runs. Let’s keep an eye out for it next time then…….

5.20 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Urban Warrior showed a bit more with his favoured cut in the ground but the handicapper is reluctant to cut him any slack.” Finally, I appear to have read a horse wrong. Or have I?

The horse finished 5th beaten 3 lengths, so it ran OK IMO. However, as I said in the last post, I don’t think it enjoys cut in the ground as much as the RP thinks. Secondly, the analyst is trying to imply that it is not well handicapped. IMO, the fact it was 2nd, 6 lengths clear last time to a subsequent two times winner implies that it is on a very good mark. Therefore, it didn’t get beat in this race due to being badly handicapped. It either run below form or it didn’t handle the ground. It's nice to know that I know more than that analyst......

AR selections

3.50 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Going Time, up in trip, was well beaten.” You get the feeling that someone knew more than Andrew here. The horse started at 12/1 and at 16 on Betfair. Andrew thought it was value at 7/1 and 8.2 on BF, so someone knew more than him. The horse finished tailed off last!

4.15 - Comment from the Racing Post Review analyst “Wise Dennis was another unable to get into it from the back.” Andrew said this started at 20+ on Betfair, so you get the impression again that someone knew more than him. It finished 2nd last.

Overall, I feel like today was very beneficial. Even though I effectively picked 5 losers, I felt like I read most races correctly. On a different day under their optimum conditions, some of my selections would have won without a doubt. One of the key things that amateur form readers should take from today is the fact that to pick winners consistently, you need to find horses with everything in their favour.

Lots of people may have noticed these horses I selected above for the reasons I stated but importantly, I also managed to recognise that every one had a barrier to overcome and therefore, they weren’t worth a bet. Ultimately, it’s this skill that will separate me from other tipsters in the long-run.

Difficult to learn much from Andrew’s selections today. As he said in a comment to Steve, he only operates at the extremes of the spectrum!!!!!

If readers found today’s posts beneficial, I may do the same posts tomorrow if I get the time. After all, I have a Champion Tipster competition starting on Monday! I need to get into top shape…….

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Brilliant blog mate - compulsive reading - better than a summer blockbuster !
Keep it up !!!

Ivicia said...

For a beginner like me trying to learn form reading these sort of posts are invaluable.

The way you understand the way horses will run is frightening. I watched all races today and you got lots more right than wrong in your analysis.

I already send you email for next month, so look forward to learning more from it.

Ivicia

steve said...

I'm sure all your readers are more than happy for you to continue posting your thoughts on the days racing Graeme. And don't worry if people lose money backing them we're all adults and it's clear from the postings they're only your view of the race not tips as such.

I didn't back or trade of any of them but still enjoy reading your view of the race as it passes the time between races and the write ups are well written and succint. Might consider trading them if you continue to manage to pick runners that'll trade at 1.06 :) .

You might be interested in betfairs SP site for details of your previous and upcoming picks to see how low they went in running give you an idea of how best to profit trading from how low some have gone down in odds in running. Usually updated a day behind but the info in the files should be of some use to you

http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/

markomar said...

I put in a cheeky punt on Wise Dennis after I saw it was so long. It traded at 9.6 for a second during the race and I got out for a symbolic profit. :)

It really is a nice feeling to make money from a horse that ran badly. :D

Anonymous said...

For what it's worth - my take on the 2 horses I selected...
I thought Wise Dennis ran OK. It's price had stablised at 17 before the off (having touched 25). It loomed up appearing to have every chance 2 furlongs out - but for whatever reason, didn't go through with it's effort. I think it actually reached 6 In Running, so my loses were minimal...
Good Times on the otherhand, ran an appalling race ! Whether it was the ground, the draw, the distance or the ride, I've no idea - but it never featured with a chance. Even more concerning was the pre-race drift - someone evidentially knew that it was going to run a shocker !
However, as I said in my previous response to Steve, my selections tend to be more speculative than Graeme's. Some are punted like crazy and run blinders - others drift like barges and run like hairy goats !
However, so long as I get the balance right and the prices right, I know I'll win in the long run. After all, it's a marathon, not a sprint !!!
Andrew.

Graeme Dand said...

Cheers Anonymous.

It’s always nice to hear that people are enjoying the blog.

Ivicia,

I laughed when I read your ‘frightening’ comment. As I’ve said before on here many times, I like to look at races where the horses are all fairly exposed as the form is all in the book.

With practice, IMO, anyone can read the races the way I do. With experience, you’d improve and ultimately, you’d be picking lots of nice winners in time.

Hopefully, you may pick up a few hints on form reading next month.

Steve,

I think the ‘adult’ point is probably something I forget at times! I can see from the number of hits that people enjoy reading about racing and my views, so I’ll probably keep doing it.

Next month, it will all be done in emails though as I need to get away from using the blog! My work may not agree that race analysis is where my future lies. lol

I’ll definitely check out that site. I didn’t realise that existed to be honest. It would allow me to perform some tests about when I should exit bets and also about if I should just gamble or trade ultimately!

I think you make a good point about trading my selections. Yesterday, I made it clear that Vicious Warrior would lead and try to make all and I also made it clear that Salient would go out and try to get a soft lead. Vicious traded 1.06 and Salient was less than 2.5 IR I believe before finishing 4th.

As I’ve said many times on here, this is the way that I increase my green profits. If you just concentrated on greening up IR on these horses that I know will front run and run well, I’m sure you’d do very well in the long run! :) (Possible strategy for next month for everyone!)

Marko,

You need to get your loyalties sorted out mate! Backing Vicious Warrior was where you wanted to be yesterday…..lol

The point you make about making money from horses running badly is a good one. As I’ve shown over the past few months on here, you can make nice amounts by exiting the trades at the right time IR. Obviously, you won’t get it right all the time but in the long-run, if you pick the right horses, you’d do fine.

Andrew,

We’ll need to get you your own blog mate as you’re hijacking mines! lol

Your last paragraph is something that you’ve managed to install in me over the last few months and it’s bang on the mark. You know what I’m like and I never want to pick a loser but I’ve came to realise that losers are OK as long as I’m getting the right amount of value on the bet.

“It’s a marathon and not a sprint” – I may use that quote next month if things go badly! lol

Steve said...

Graeme , if you want a single file of the Betfair inplay data just say. There are 400+ days worth of files on there so I wrote a script to import them into a mysql database. Didn't fancy cutting and pasting 400+ csv files :)

I can email the file either in csv or sql format if you want it, goes back to 1.4.08 covering UK and Irish racing, I didn't include the place data though.