Saturday, 23 August 2008

Review of the afternoon...

With my third post in the last 24 hours, there’s a danger of my output being as prolific as Graeme’s – however, as I’ve only got to keep it up for 7 days, I should be able to avoid verbal burnt out !

So, onto this afternoon’s action: bottom line – Graeme’s chances of winning the tipping competition receded a little further – but it wasn’t for the want of trying and with a bit of luck it could have been quite different…

Even if I say so myself (I was actually hoping that one of my readers would do this for me, so I wouldn’t have to !), I read the 2 Goodwood races near perfectly… Only 2 horses mentioned in both races and they finished first and second – a good way clear of the third. If Petara Bay’s stamina hadn’t given out in the closing stages, they really would have been perfect calls. Needless to say, I didn’t make anywhere as much from the races as I should have (as is invariable the case) – but I did turn it a bit of a profit…

I also read Balthazaar Gift’s race at Newmarket pretty well. Winker Watson didn’t perform and Balthazaar traded at 2.3 IR – but didn’t quite get there. I did look closely at the winner his morning – but just didn’t think it good enough…

The other 3 races weren’t quite as good:
Sophocles ran OK in Ireland but was simply outclassed. I was surprised to see it at such a short price and actually ended up backing Ballyhaunis in the race (as it has finished ahead of Sophocles two races ago). It ran a reasonable race to finish third, but was also not match for the winner.
Cat Junior also ran OK (though faded to finish last). The most notable thing about this race was Betfair’s failure to open the IR market. This probably cost me a few pounds (I invariably look to lay in Running and Cat Junior travelled prominently and reasonably well) – but I’m sure it cost others significantly more… I guess it’s a risk you take if you bet prior the off with a view to greening up IR…
Finally, Supersonic Dave ran a reasonable race to finish a staying on fourth , looking (somewhat ironically) like he needed a stiffer test of stamina…

So, in summary, from 6 selections, I managed a 12-1 winner, two seconds at 6-1 and 12-1, a 12-1 fourth and two unplaced. Not too bad…

However, the high-light of the afternoon for me, was the first race at Tralee. A maiden hurdle in which I managed to get £1:83 matched on the winner at odds of 240, moments before the off ! (this is the second highest priced winner I’ve ever backed !) Unfortunately, I layed off quite a big chunk, to guarantee at least £70 profit whatever the result – but I still ended up winning £130 on the race, which was a cause for moderate celebration ! Interestingly the winner’s SP was just 25-1 (though it would have been good enough for Graeme if I’d selected It for the comp !).

Just so you are all aware, I don’t intend to analyse races and post selections every day. It’s simply that I needed to go through the process for Graeme’s competitions entries, so I thought I would share my analysis on here. I may do the same tomorrow (as it’s the last day of the comp) – but from there on in, I will intend to raise more cerebral matters for debate (unless the masses demand otherwise !)

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Excellent start to your spell in the chair Andrew, with a little more luck you could have really bagged some profits! Anyway thought I would try and start the ball rolling with the comments which I think you deserve.

My only bet today was Phoenix Tower e/w so a satisfactory result albeit not quite the jackpot!

Keep up the good work, Gags

Anonymous said...

Excellent analyse Andrew,i agree with the previous comment a bit more luck and could of been a bumper day,i backed all your tips today so good day for me,i hope you keep the analyse going everyday if you can,keep up the good work mate.
Cheers
Terry.

Graeme Dand said...

Guys,
Thanks for the positive comments – they are greatly appreciated !

Gags,
Unlucky with Phoenix Tower. I never bet EW myself (I bet to win and lay IR) – but if ever a race was set up for an EW bet (or place only), that was it ! This said, to my eyes, you looked like collecting the win part as well, coming out of the dip. But these O’Brien horses are so tough (as well as talented) – they take some passing !
A.

Terry,
I’m pleased that you had a profitable day yesterday - but would seriously urge you not to follow my tips ! I do make the game pay – but not by picking winners… My method is to narrow a field down and then bet based on the odds available (which is why I ditched Sophocles in favour of Ballyhaunis yesterday).
I have a good knowledge of top class racing, which enables me to predict how many races will unfold. If there are any suitable races this week, I may try my hand at analysing again – but otherwise, I tend to play the odds based on pure speculation (certainly not a method that you should be following blindly !)
All this said, Classic Remark is a fair punt today – I’m not saying it will win, but it will almost certainly represent serious value. If you really want a winner, try Coastal Path – though it won’t make you rich !
A.

Betting Diary said...

This blog is an excellent read. Both Graeme and Andrew have provided an interesting few days with excellent analysis and some good winners. Heck! I've even started to use some of the bits and bobs that you seem to look for in your analysis for my own betting selections. And it was a good day yesterday which could have been excellent with a tiny bit of luck.

Anonymous said...

Great shout in the Voltigeur. I was convinced Patkai was lay of the day, but other than that decided to sit it out. Needless to say I wish I'd taken your reading of the race and got involved!

Graeme Dand said...

Betting Dairy,
Thanks for the comment.
IMO, everyone benefits from posts such as these: Graeme and I benefit by being forced to consider carefully what we write - and from the discipline going public forces upon you (no one wants to be appear stupid !). We also benefit from some of the feedback we receive (it’s good to get a different take on things). Hopefully, readers like yourself, get benefit from understanding how Graeme and I operate – it would also be nice to think that we might provide a little inspiration for those seeking to make a profit out of racing (but maybe I’m getting ideas above my station with that one !)…
A.


Anonymous,
If only I could read all races like I read those two at Goodwood… In truth, they were both my kind of races: top class and small fields. Furthermore, both contained very beatable favourites… It never fails to amaze me how punters in general, so want to back a winner, they will force prices down to crazy levels. Patkai had a couple of significant question marks over him – but was an odds on shot. He had nothing in hand of either Centenniel or Top Lock on the book – just potential…
I would never have said that he wouldn’t win – but he was no odds on shot. If you oppose horses like this, In the long run, you will come out on top…
A.