Sunday, 24 August 2008

Champion Tipster Day 7

Final day of the Champion Tipster competition and I just need a 25-1 winner to take the title on Graeme’s behalf… No pressure then !
I feel like an athlete on the last leg of the 4X400m relay, handed the baton 50m behind the leader – here’s hoping for a Kriss Akabusi moment !

Yesterday there was a feast of quality action; today whilst there is no famine, it’s like having dinner at Mcdonalds, when you’ve lunched at a Michelin starred restaurant !

Still, I’ve got to work with what’s available – and a 25-1 winner is a 25-1 winner wherever it’s running and whatever the class of the race…

That said, I’m struggling a bit to find suitable fancies… I’ve discarded the Yarmouth and Beverly cards, because they do nothing for me (ironically, Graeme would have probably lapped them up !). Instinctively, I turn to the Irish racing in times of need (I realise this is unusual – but it works for me !) however, it’s always very difficult to predict the market (more difficult I find, than predicting the winners), so I’ll have to rely on Goodwood (where there are a couple of decent races) – and Deauville (I’m not sure if the competition permits this – but I’ll submit my selection and argue about it when it’s won !).

So, after much deliberation my selections for today are:

Deauville 2:45 Classic Remark
Goodwood 2:45 Lady Acquitane

For those of you who are interested, I will explain the rationale behind my selections.

The first thing to bear in mind is that I need a big priced winner. To be honest, it’s not that easy to find a runner that will be returned with a big SP and that has a chance – hence the first selection…
I watched Classic Remark the last time it ran (in the Nassau stakes at Glorious Goodwood). It ran an absolute blinder, to finish sixth (just behind Muthabara). The thing about Classic Remark, is that it’s from an unfashionable stable and running in a foreign country. Consequently, it will almost certainly go off a bigger price than it’s form warrants. In theory, it shouldn’t beat Muthabara – but it was less than a length behind and is less exposed. If it wins, I’m sure it will pay greater than 25-1 on the PMU…
Incidentally, whilst on the subject of Deauville, I think Coastal Path is an absolute cert in the 3:45. I never bet odds on myself (and it will probably be odds on) but before the Ascot Gold cup, I’d read that it was considered unbeatable; and it travelled like a class horse during the race. It just didn’t get home. Over half a mile less, it should outclass the opposition…

My second selection is Lady Acquitane. I feel that either this or Janina will win this race. The Problem with Janina, is that if it wins, it will be backed – and I need big odds ! I’ve followed lady Acquitaine for it’s last couple of runs and it looked to me as if it was returning to form last time out. A drop in trip could be just what’s required and hopefully it will be returned around the required 25-1..
Also at Goodwood, I like the look of Regal Best in the first and Icon Project in the 3:20. I’m of the opinion that Icon Project is a class above the opposition it faces today – only the weight that it has to carry, worries me. Hopefully this won’t prove an insurmountable burden…

For completeness, I did take a look at the Irish racing and would suggest Celtic Soprano in the first at Ballinrobe and Cul a Dun in the 3:20 at Cork. I think both could outrun their odds – but I’m not confident that either will be returned at the required 25-1 (though this may well be available on Betfair).

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