Monday, 25 August 2008

Race of the Day

Although I said I probably wouldn’t analyse any more during my tenure, that was due mainly, to the fact that I didn’t anticipate any suitable races being run before Graeme’s return (apart from on Saturday maybe).
However, on scanning through the cards this morning, I was pleasantly surprised to find one of my kind of races being run at Kempton: the conditions race at 4:30.
This is a tight looking little race, with only a few pounds between all of the runners on official ratings. The big thing that strikes me about the race is that it’s likely to be run at a ferocious pace. Kandidate, Hearthsted Maison and Gravitas all like to lead. Unless two of them are prepared to ease off, all 3 could ending up compromising their chances by getting into a battle for the lead. However if they do back off, they won’t be playing to their strengths, so I will draw a line through all 3.
That just leaves, Dansant, Many Volumes and Big Robert. The winner is most likely to be one of the first two, with my preference being Dansant (due to the fact that he seems to have a little more stamina and has proved himself well suited to the AW terrain). Odds around 5-2 would seem fair…
However, the bet in the race at 60 on Betfair (50-1 with the bookies) has to be Big Robert. As I’ve said, the race should be run to suit him and he’s only a few pounds off Dansant and Many Volumes on official ratings. Sure, he’s not been in the best of form this year (though a good run was anticipated at Ascot on his penultimate start) and he’s unproven on the surface – but at 50-1 he’s not going to be bomb-proof ! IMO, he is a ‘value’ bet though…

As I mentioned yesterday, I never back odds on (I actually can’t recall ever backing below 3-1!) – but if I did, I would be sorely tempted by Levera in the 3:40 at Huntingdon. Not many 100+ rated flat horses make it onto the jumps. There are only 2 doubts: his ability to stay the trip (in reality, this probably won’t be put to the test) and his ability to jump (I can’t believe that Alan King won’t have him well schooled and he’s not likely to be put under pressure). Those 2 doubts are no where near sufficient to justify a price of even money – if I did bet at those kind of odds, I would lump on !!!

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