Tuesday, 19 August 2008

Champion Tipster Day 3

I had a bit of a panic this morning as I wrote this post below last night but when I saw the odds this morning, I had to change a few comments.

Bet 1 - 5.55 Folkestone - Icannshift (7/1) - (Is not a bet at this price, 10/1 is what we'd want before we got involved.)
Bet 2 - 7.55 Folkestone - Malapropism (11/2)

The issue for me today is I need to give 2 selections in the comp and there were only 2 races today which meet my selection criteria. I think Icannshift is likely to run well but I don't think 7/1 is correct. Don't lay it though as it front runs and you'll never get out IR!!!

5.55 Folkestone

1 – Likely to be well fancied. Come over from France and needed two runs to ‘acclimatize’ according to trainer. Won well last time and was 7 lengths clear of 3rd. However, the 2nd looked to chuck it away and 2nd has since been beaten again when well fancied, so form may not be as strong as it looks on paper. Keep
2 – Trip and ground look perfect and ran OK last twice and dropped a few pounds since. First run on favoured ground for a while. Keep
3 – Been beaten last twice off this mark and would need to improve a bit here. Never won on anything other than good to firm, so ground is large negative. Dismiss.
4 – Interesting from the point of view it appeared to improve massively over hurdles in the winter. Rated 125 over hurdles which makes today’s mark of 65 look fairly low. Keep
5 – Trip and ground are both doubts, been beaten more than 10 lengths last 3 starts, difficult to fancy. Dismiss
6 – Ran 80 times and never won a race with soft in the description. Been running OK but getting long in the tooth for a first win on soft. Dismiss.
7 – This is the sort of horse that I’d lay all day. Never won on soft, barely ever run on soft to be honest, so clearly doesn’t like it. In amazing form but off a lifetime high mark, easily dismissed. Dismiss.
8 – Won very well last time and only carries 6lb penalty here. Won at track before and jockey rode it well last time, so could be value for their 7lb claim. Keep
9 – Came over from France and was 33/1 and tailed off on debut. Impossible to fancy. Dismiss
10 – Only been beaten once less than 10 lengths in last 7 starts over flat and NH. Beaten at 40/1 last time over 2m after staying on. Impossible to fancy here. Dismiss
11 – Sprang a 25/1 shock on debut run this season but well beaten next time. One win in last 21 runs means it’s difficult to get too excited by it here. Dismiss
12 – Last two runs have been too bad to be true. Before that, was in some sort of form. Very consistent if we can exclude the last 2 runs. Last run was first run for 2 months, so may have needed it a bit. Keep
13 – Will try to make all. Loves this track and trip. Last 4 wins have been over this course and distance. Has a definite preference for soft ground and last 3 runs have been OK on ground too firm. Dropping a little in the weights after these runs and now well handicapped. Keep.
14 – Actually running much better than it appears on paper and caught the eye a few runs back over course and distance staying on late. Keep

Right, this looks tricky. I’ve narrowed it down to 1,2,4,8,12,13,14. Exactly half the field ruled out.

I think a lot of the race revolves around 1. It won well last time and may be very well handicapped but we missed its win last time at 16/1, it’s 6lb higher today in a tougher race and will be favourite. We missed the wedding, don’t attend the funeral!

That leaves us with 6 possibles.

I think it is nearly impossible to back 4. It will be fancied and yes, if it translates its improvement over hurdles to the flat, it could be very well handicapped but it hasn’t run on the flat for 310 days. Forecast second fav in the Racing Post also, so unlikely to be value. Dismiss this one.

We are now left with 2,8,12,13,14.

8 only won a selling handicap last time and although it won well, today’s race is much tougher and it’s 6lb higher. I think with the increase in weight and the tougher race and the fact we missed the win last time, I can’t back this. Last time was the time to back it.

Right, now left with 2,12,13,14.

The odds of these in the Racing Post tissue are 8/1,14/1,12/1 and 28/1. As usual, there’s some value here……

The fact that 12 has been beaten out of sight the last twice means it has questions to answer here, so I’d maybe take a watching brief with this one instead of backing it.

3 reasons to rule out 14 are: it’s 3lb out of the handicap, so it’s going to find it even more difficult. It’s only won once in 27 races. Lastly, if this was a hurdle race, it would have 60lbs to find with 4 (which I ruled out!). We can dismiss this one I think for today.

Left with 2 and 13.

Interestingly, 13 is a front runner who always sets a good pace and 2 is a hold up horse that needs a good pace. Hence, 2 should get the pace he needs today.

However, the fact that 13 has won his last 4 races here (last twice on soft) off higher marks implies to me that it can win this today. However, after seeing the odds this morning, it is not worth a bet at less than 10/1.

For those of you that like to trade IR, this will lead them a merry dance for a long way!!!!

7.55 Folkestone

1 – Clear preference for soft ground although some doubts around best trip. Last four runs have been over 5f,6f,8f and 7f! Best runs have all been on 5f/6f soft, so will be suited by today’s trip/ground. Keep
2 – Usually wins from July/August onwards and rattled up a hat-trick last year in September. Very interesting jockey booking as Holland regarded as best front-running jockey and he rode it when it started its hat-trick last year. First time he has ridden it this season…..Keep
3 – Horse barely gets 5f and goes off too fast. Tumbling in the weights but not running well. Never run on soft, so that’s a major issue. Dismiss
4 – Well handicapped on old form and ran well last time. Ground and trip seem fine. Keep
5 – Won’t go on the ground and not that well handicapped now after winning yesterday. Now won 2 races in 3 by small margins, so needs to be still improving. Dismiss.
6 – Ran well last time and well handicapped on old form. I have a doubt concerning the ground though as wouldn’t want it too soft. Keep
7 – Impossible to know if it is well handicapped. Didn’t show much in maidens either. Difficult to fancy. Dismiss.
8 – No form on soft, well beaten last twice, earlier form was OK but even so, difficult to fancy. Interesting jockey booking. Dismiss

That leaves me with 1,2,4,6. Again, half of the field is ruled out.

One of the key aspects to this race is the pace. 3 always goes like thunder, 2 likes to lead and 6 goes from the front. Having 3 in the race messes it up for 2 and 6 to some extent in my opinion. 4 can also go from towards the front.

By process of elimination, that only leaves 1 which happens to be a hold up horse who gets much further than 5f and loves soft ground. Hence, his stamina will come into play here.

Not surprisingly, Spotlight has picked up on the pace aspect and has napped this and it’s currently 2/1 on oddschecker. Difficult to see much value there to be honest.

However, due to the fact I need a selection for the tipping comp, I’ll go for 2 at current odds of 11/2 on oddschekcer.

Holland is much renowned as being the best front-running jockey and here’s hoping he can somehow work his magic here. The fact he won on it the first time he rode it implies he was deliberately asked to ride it and I guess the same must be true here as he hasn’t ridden it this season yet. Its runs this season on soft ground have been better than on firm and it could be the case it has managed to get well handicapped by running on ground not quite right.

Incidentally, Holland is 2 from his last 3 rides for Channon over the past 6 days. Stable has had 2 winners, 3 places from last 6 horses to have run. Everything points to a better run here from Malapropism than the market expects…….

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I thought I would just post a few thoughts on your races before they took place (I’m sure you’ll get plenty of comment after the runners have flashed past the post !).
I’ve already shared most of these with you – but it might be interesting for your readers too have a slightly different take on things…
In the first race, I can buy into your argument for Icannshift - but I’ll be surprised if one or two of his opponents don’t collar him near the line. His last 3 runs have been in a lower class of race (without success) and he’s 8 years old now (so he’s not improving). I accept that conditions are just right for him – but he will need non of the opposition to be improving (and I think this unlikely). At 12-1, I thought he might be worth a risk: at 7-1, he’s not for me (though I could see him trading shorter IR and he may well hang on for a place).
Malapropsim in the last is a different proposition. Unfortunately, there are a few NRs in the race, so his price has contracted – but one of those would have provided competition for the lead – so his absence is a bonus. I think ‘the Dazzler’ can fire him out of the gates and build up an unassailable lead. 4-1 strikes me as a generous price (even though it’s way below the odds I normally consider – I’d want a zero on the end - LOL !). The added bonus, is that he again looks a sure fire back to lay IR…
If your readers want a speculative punt between your two races, I would suggest Cabo Polonio in the 6:25. It’s currently available at 25-1 – and could easily be double or half those odds at he off ! It could also finish either first or last- but IMO, it’s got a chance and 25-1 is too big a price...
GL with your selections – whatever happens to Cabo !